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The Sinister Six


Trevor Presiloski

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So I've made mention in a couple of other blog posts that I was going to be doing up a piece talking about the Canucks bottom six. And why not? There's been a lot of talk lately about certain members of the Canucks third and fourth liners, most of it laced with profanities.

Steve Bernier needs to be shipped out of town, Kyle Wellwood should be benched and so on and so forth. While I'm not in disagreement that the bottom six players are bad, I would argue that there are reasons why our bottom six hasn't really been performing all that well that extend beyond 'such and such player sucks.'

At least that's what I'm hoping to get across here.

I'll start with the mainstays of the third line, Kyle Wellwood and Steve Bernier, both guys who have come under a lot of scrutiny so far this season. Some praise, first, though. Together, they've been on the ice for 27 goals against and 37 goals in 5 on 5 situations. Wellwood, in particular, has only been on the ice for 9 even strength goals against and are a combined +7 (this is including 4 on 4 situations.) They don't take a lot of penalties, either, as they've combined for 27 PIM (22 minutes worth of minors.) All while averaging roughly 14 minutes of icetime a game. At the very least, the third line is responsible 5 on 5 and are capable of playing disciplined hockey.

That's about where the praise ends, though. Points-wise, the third line has combined for a grand total of 38 points (if you include Demitra, 48 if you include Tanner Glass' 10 points.) When compared to the other top teams in the Western Conference, they're dwarfed by San Jose's and Chicago's third lines of Clowe/Nichol/Ortmeyer (Manny Malholtra typically slots in, but my understanding is he's been bumped up to the second line as of late) and Byfuglien/Madden/Versteeg, who have produced 70 and 75 points respectively. With Tanner Glass' contributions factored in there, they're only one point better than Phoenix's third line of Korpikoski, Lang and former Canucks pariah Taylor Pyatt, although the Canucks line has been far superior defensively, as the Coyotes line is a combined -14 and have been on the ice for a combined 58 even strength goals against, while averaging about a minute less of 5 on 5 icetime.

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Things continue to break down when you look at the ice time, though. I mentioned that the Canucks third line averages 14 minutes a game. That's pretty respectable for your third line: San Jose's averages about the same amount of icetime, Chicago's third line averages close to 16 minutes a game and Phoenix's trio averages around 13 and a half minutes of icetime. The problem, though, is how those minutes are distributed.

Bernier and Wellwood are both seen as offensive players and have been given time on the powerplay where they've been less than underwhelming: Wellwood has just 14 points on the year while Steve Bernier has 20, despite averaging 2 minutes a game on the powerplay.

Compared to San Jose, Clowe averages 2 minutes and change a game on the powerplay, while Nichol spends about the same on the penalty kill and very little time on the man advantage. Clowe's point totals are almost double those of Bernier's (39 points vs. 20) despite their icetime totals being damn near identical to each other's. Nichol, who doesn't spend much time on the powerplay, has as many points as Wellwood, a guy who averages a minute and a half of powerplay time a game. Heck, Wellwood is keeping pace with Pyatt with points and he averages less PP time than Wellwood.

Again, performance in certain situations is what's led to the Canucks third line being so dismal. For the amount of powerplay time both Bernier and Wellwood get, they should be having some more to show for their efforts. The players on other teams are capable of playing at even strength and on special teams and producing results. Hopefully the addition of Demitra will spark some regular strength production, however, it does not explain the lack of PP production from them, which is what is truly hurting this third line.

While Wellwood and company are capable playing 5 on 5, the same cannot be said about the Canucks fourth line, generally consisting of Hordichuk, Johnson and Rypien. They're a combined -10 and only average 8 minutes of icetime. That number is slightly inflated due to Johnson's time spent on the penalty kill, where he's been on for 20 goals against, half of the total number of goals the Canucks have given up while down a man. Factoring out Johnson's PK minutes, the Canucks fourth line averages just over 7 minutes a game. That's roughly a full minute less than both of San Jose and Chicago's lines (yet both those lines don't consist entirely of minus players and, in Chicago's case, are producing a ton more) and almost 2 full minutes less than the Coyotes 4th line.

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The Canucks fourth line also takes a ton of penalty minutes. Thus far, they've combined for 196 minutes worth of penalties, although Rypien and Hordichuk have 22 majors between them. Throwing in Glass, who really should only be playing on the fourth line, the Canucks have 33 fighting majors split between three players.

The only comparables for the Hawks, Sharks and Coyotes are Staubitz (with 7) and Bissonette (who has 15 majors.) Eager and Fraser also have 11 majors split between them, but they also are plus players and have 22 points. Phoenix's fourth line has 41 points, while San Jose's fourth line only has 17 points between them, but make up for it for more disciplined play by taking less penalties. Rypien and Hordichuk? Combined -8 and 8 points.

The impact this has had on the Canucks is rather apparent, especially on the road, where the home team has the last change advantage. When you have a fourth line consisting primarily of players whose main skill is fighting and are defensively inept, it essentially shortchanges your bench and makes it easy for opposing team's coaches to match up against your squad. A common complaint I see in game day threads or on Twitter is 'What is Steve Bernier/Kyle Wellwood doing out on the ice in the third period?' Well, the reason for that is because you can only shorten your bench so much. I'd rather have Bernier or Wellwood out there than Hordichuk or Johnson. When your bottom six is a mess, you have to go with the option that is the least likely to come around and bite you. Other teams, like Chicago, have a bottom six of players who can go out and play in key situations, a luxury that Vancouver doesn't really have.

So what can be done? Beyond the simple answer of 'Trade or Waive 'em!' I'd argue that the Canucks don't need to do a whole lot to try and fix things. But here's what I think Mike Gillis may be looking at:

- Getting a replacement centerman for the third line. I've been defending Kyle Wellwood for ages and have even done so in this blog post, but it's clear that he just isn't capable of getting it done: his lack of overall finish on the powerplay is evidence of that. A trade for a Matt Cullen type would be phenomenal and help out the third line a great deal.

- Stop playing Hordichuk/Rypien/Glass so goddamned much. I understand that Alain Vigneault likes the idea of a 'crash and bang' line, but when that group spends too much time in its own end of the rink you really should be dialing back the amount of icetime Hordichuk gets. Glass is probably the best forward out of the three listed, based on production and overall icetime: he's been the one seeing time on the third line and his overall icetime averages reflect that. Put him in a fourth line role, where he's not out of his element.

- Look at utilizing some of our 'skill' players down on the farm. This would involve waiving or trading individuals on the roster, as the Canucks are at the roster max presently. That said, Jannik Hansen, Michael Grabner and Matt Pettinger are all guys who could potentially fit with the Canucks (and regulate Hordichuk et al. to the pressbox.) Hansen is a solid skater who can also forecheck like mad. Pettinger is a guy who has NHL experience, is capable of chipping in some offense and can play on the PK. Putting those two guys with Johnson could give a fourth line that is defensively responsible and provide some options on the penalty kill…and may just improve it.

As for Grabner, he showed that he was capable of clicking with Kesler and Raymond earlier in the season. He has been cold as of late, but putting him on a line with Raymond and Kesler, arguably the two best Canucks as of late, could jumpstart him much in the same way pouring gasoline on a bonfire causes things to heat up. Failing that, you could bump him down to the third line and have him try and work something with Pavol Demitra, who is capable of playing the center position.

The proposed solutions may not work, but they'd be providing something different. With a Canucks squad that's been struggling offensively on the road, getting scored upon first and has had major problems with their bottom six a slight makeover might do the Canucks a world of good.

Trevor Presiloski is an avid fan of the Canucks. You can catch more of his thoughts, Canucks and otherwise, over at his website.

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On your "use the farm team" point, change Johnson for Rypien and you have me sold.

Good number crunching and a good read.

Thanks!

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Matt Cullen would've been a great fit here, but Ottawa's got him now.

I have to defend Bernier here because I think his play is better than what his stats show. He's a big body and while he doesn't always bury the pucks he should, he's a great team player. He's not a bad penalty killer and he's still got room to grow. He may never reach that potential but he's a solid 20-25 goal player. Wellwood, on the other hand, should go.

I don't think it's exactly fair to compare Vancouver to Chicago or San Jose because on any other team Clowe and Versteeg would be second liners. Also I don't think any of our defenseman can provide the same type of offense Keith or Boyle can and offense really starts from the defensive zone. Not making any excuses for Bernier or Wellwood, they can and should play better, but I don't think their supporting cast is that good either.

The team needs more tinkering on the bottom six in preparation for the playoffs. We need guys who can skate, hit, and playoff experience.

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Well said Trevor.

If I were line tweaking I would probably argue benching Bernie and Welly

Raymond/Kes/Grabner

Hansen/Demo/Sammy

Glass/Johnson/Rypien

If grabner didnt work out then

Raymond/Kes/Hasen

Bernier/Demo/Sammy

Glass/Johnson/Rypien

The reason I put Hansen on the second and Sammy on the third is to keep the third solid and defensively responsible. Also Hansen has a similiar play style to ray and kes and would do better with them than he would with Demo.

For those who didn't do the math, Hansen >Bernier.

I'd love to see them bring in a left winger with a trade. No point in getting a center because Hogson will likely fill that spot next year.

I might even consider brining Shirkov back for a couple games since he is doing much better and seems to be getting used to the American style hockey which was where he was having problems in the preseason.

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Wow, a very impressive read. You sold me on the "Use the farm" bit. I had completely forgotten about Matt Pettinger. I agree that Hansen should have a regular bottom six role, and he's got a cheap contract to boot.

A third line center would be great, and I don't know for sure.. but I think Wellwood might benefit from playing wing on the third line, assuming we got that third line center we seem to need. I still think Bernier has potential, but I think he'll really have to step it up if he wants to keep his third line role next season.

I don't claim to know too much about hockey, but that's my two cents.

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