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My Top 10 Reason's Why Matt Duchene Needs to be a Vancouver Canuck

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Mr.53

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As many people on this site already know, I am a huge believer than Matt Duchene needs to be a Canuck. I have made a thread about what I would think to get him, which this topic has been discussed at length. I have my reason's on why we could acquire him. If you want to check it out, please do. But anyway, here is my top 10 reason'swhy Matt Duchene would be perfect for our team and Franchise and why JB should be aggressively pursuing him.

 

Reason #1) Take Pressure Of The Sedins (Especially Henrik): Henrik is showing he can't exactly handle top line minutes anywhere. He needs someone to help share the load/take over and let the Sedins go into a 2nd line  and PP specialist role. Duchene with 2 good line-mates could do that, making the Sedins better. A producing Sedin twins on the second line could propel this team much further than I think a lot of people think. They just need to be put in a good situation. Matt Duchene is a player who won't be the best number 1 center, or honestly even top 10, or maybe top 15, but he would be the best center and offensive player on this team. He's not top tier, but he's still a worthy number 1 center, who given the right linemates, could be dominant. Duchene and Henrik bounce off as the 1-2 punch next season, and Horvat soon after, (given if they resign and not retire.)

 

Reason #2) Bo Horvat's Player Development: Duchene can bounce off of Henrik Sedin next season, or in the short term, but I think we all know we have to look longterm. Bo Horvat is the future captain, and a future bonafide top 6 two-way impact center in this league. I see him turning into a player similar to Ryan O'Reilly, which would be fantastic. Even so, he needs an offensive minded center to bounce off of and work with. Kind of like he did with Max Domi in London. (Can we get him too please??) Don't put too much weight on the kids shoulders. he needs help at the center position. Duchene-Horvat can be the 1-2 punch combo of the Canucks for a long time, and I'm fine with that. Much more fine than drafting a center, and waiting for him to catch up to Bo's level. I would rather have Duchene-Horvat for the next few years or possibly the next 5-8, while we look for another stud center to catch up and develop.

 

Reason #3) Loui Eriksson's Offensive Production: Loui Eriksson simply has not been able to get the job done with the Sedins. Maybe when they were younger and closer to their prime, but not anymore. The Sedins now need a speedy forechecking, back-checking, grinding winger with skill. ( I say we mold Jake Virtanen into just that. During the offseason, show him some Jannik Hansen footage and tell him to do that. Use that speed and size on the PK. The rest of the game will come.) Still, Eriksson is signed with a no movement clause for a long time. We need to find a way to get some production out of him. Right now he's playing, and producing alright, but we don't need alright. We need him to become the potential 30 goal scoring two-way force we signed him to be. Duchene can get him back on track and get him different looks than Hank. (I also say add Brandon Sutter to that line as a two-way presence, and boom, you got yourself a pretty good first line, top 6 for the Sedins, and top 9 for Horvat and Baertschi) Duchene is the number 1 center with Eriksson on the left and getting PP minutes, and Brandon Sutter on the right getting PK minutes.

 

Reason #4) He Can Join The Core Brandon Sutter Style: He's 26. That is the perfect age to reach a compromise for the owners, and the fans. He's old enough and reaching his prime, so he can help this team now. Next season he will help make us a playoff team and help develop that winning culture we want to surround our already young guns around and about to come in. Yet, like Brandon Sutter, our 'foundational piece,' he is young enough that he could potentially be part of this team for another 6-10 years if he resigns. (He will be expensive though... He has all the leverage and could go anywhere to any team, and any contender in 2 seasons after this.) But still, perfect age where he ends up elevating the whole Franchise and all of our young guys with it, with a winning atmosphere. Resign him to the core long term and then start focusing on drafting and developing young guys. Which brings me to my next point.

 

Reason #5) He Would Likely Re-Sign Here After 2 Years: I think he would definitely resign here. In Colorado he is just another top 6 offensive producer. He's not even on the first line in Colorado, and after they get first overall, he may be the third best center. I highly doubt Duchene resigns. Why would he. He is the kind of player who wants to be the man, the go to guy, the number 1 center of a team. It's just his personality. And he also likes to win, given why he has told the Avalanche he is open to a trade. Here in Vancouver, he get's all of that. We have not been blessed with Colorado's top picks in recent times, so Duchene would slot in as our top offensive player and number 1 overall offensive threat until we can draft/develop another. On top of that, once the Sedins have some pressure taken off of them and don't have to play first line, I think we would be able to become a playoff team. That's a situation he would love, especially with young guys on the come up. He gets to be the guy brought in who finally balanced the team, and made the Canucks a playoff team, as well as a leader to the young guys coming up, and most importantly, the go to guy of the forward core where we build around him. Why not resign?

 

Reason #6) He Can Run The Point And QB The PP: I have seen a number of Avs games, as I have many Avs fans randomly. An interesting thing about Matt Duchene is when it comes to the PP, he can play from anywhere, including the high point. The Sedins are more effective at cycling down low and on the corner wall, and Stecher is showing he can be a force from the point. I say put Eriksson back on with the Sedins, and put Duchene at the point with Stecher. The offensive firepower could really get the PP going again. They would be susceptible to SHGs given Duchene and Stecher are on the back, but that would be a mean PP. Sedin Sedin Eriksson up front, Duchene and Stecher on the back. That's scary... He is also a guy that can add some needed speed which is so very helpful with all the open ice. He can really light up a highlight reel if given the green light. Get the Sedins and Eriksson going again on the PP, and the team will be dangerous.

 

Reason #7) More Appealing Spot For UFAs: Adding a player like Matt Duchene would be great for trying to sign UFAs. UFAs like franchises with a good young future, but what most of them like more are teams with a bunch of players right about to do well. Players that don't still need to develop, but are recently bursting onto the scene. Duchene isn't recent, but he shows that Vancouver is a team that is here, ready to compete, and can be a legitimate destination for a free agent. (My dream is Evander Kane cleans his act up and signs here in a couple years. That team could be dangerous...) You would have to also make sure he resigns after his contract is up, but that is already a priority if you ask me. He also gives us more leverage in contract talks among others, being that we have a high profile scorer already here.

 

Reason #8) He's Another Face-off Specialist: Matt Duchene is a career above 50% faceoff percentage. About 51% or 52% or so. However, last season he was a 57.9 and this season he is a shocking 59.9. The kid knows how to take a draw. Duchene, Sutter, and Horvat would give us 3 legitimate face-off beasts. He's honestly not a bad defensive player, just nothing spectacular. However, when it comes to the draw, he is spectacular. Teach Bo some of your tricks too. But still, the whole teams possession will get much better with 3 players who can win draws reliably. 

 

Reason #9) Regain Interest and Popularity Among Fans: This is one for the owners mostly. But one reason why there is such a rift, is fans want to focus on drafting and developing new players, but the owners don't want to lose money. We've already seen hits about the financial loss they have been losing in viewership etc. Going and getting a guy like Duchene would help rejuvenate the fanbase and keep the owners happy so they stop budding out of JB's business and let him do his job. (They would probably drool over the possible Duchene jersey sales alone...) And not only even in the province, but all over the country and the league. I'm so annoyed with how much of a joke the Canucks have become. People just don't respect us like they used too. I want to get that respect back. The Canucks never go away. Duchene will get people talking, buzz going, and then when we hit the playoffs, we're right back in it. He can also be a human highlight reel at times. That's always good for getting views.

 

Reason #10) Our Future Core is Largely Already Set: This is one where I know I am going to get massive disagreement on. But people, all over the league, including here, think we are in a much worse position than we are. We have a lot of our future assembled already from prospects that have and are likely to make it through the rough. Of the forwards: Horvat, Baertschi, Virtanen, Boeser. That's 4 forwards that are about to be on the team 22 or younger. You can't have your entire team be youth. We need a guy around their prime like Sutter (or Hansen) to help lead the way. Eriksson will likely be here for a long time, and maybe the Sedins too. On the defence: Hutton, Gudbranson, Stecher, Tryamkin, with Juolevi coming in soon. Edler and Tanev (or Sbisa) are the only true vets leading the way. You can't have your team be all youth even if they're all good players. The Oilers taught us that lesson. Duchene is the perfect piece to join the core, and become a leader. In fact, I would say Duchene would be more important than adding another first or young prospect. We need a winning culture here for our young guns.

 

Imagine this forward lineup going into next season. I Imagine pretty much any deal would require Markus Granlund going back the other way as a consolation piece, and I assume Jannik Hansen will be taken in the expansion. This would likely be the team roughly given Virtanen and Boeser join the club next season, and we sign no forward UFAS, but you get the point. It would likely look like this roughly)

 

 

Our Forward Core

Loui Eriksson - Matt Duchene - Brandon Sutter 

Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Jake Virtanen 

Sven Baertschi - Bo Horvat - Brock Boeser 

Reid Boucher - Brendan Gaunce - Derek Dorsett 

 

Every player is put in a position where they can succeed. It's a stable core that has a good mix of

  • Young guns (24 and under) : Horvat, Boeser, Virtanen, Baertschi, Gaunce, Boucher.
  • Prime age (25 through 30): Duchene, Sutter, Dorsett (Baertschi and Boucher will be here soon and Horvat is already mentally there)
  • Veteran leaguers (31 and older): Daniel, Henrik, Eriksson
  • Current Lockeroom Leaders: Henrik (C), Daniel, Sutter, Horvat, Eriksson
  • Next Gen Lockeroom Leaders: Horvat (C), Sutter, Duchene, Eriksson, Boeser

 

Duchene puts the whole team in balance and could bring much more to this franchise than a lot of people realize. This is a team that by an large can be the Vancouver Canucks for at least 3 or more seasons while we restock our prospect cupboard. The Sedins would likely resign short deals to have 1 or 2 more cup runs with the new core as well as pass on their leadership to the next generation. Once the Sedins have regressed to third line PP specialist players, Horvat, Baertschi, and Boeser will be becoming a bonafide second line in the league and our new leaders will step up. We don't have many high profile top prospects in our cupboard other than Juolevi and Demko, but with a set team, we can stand pat and use JB to focus his energy on scouting and drafting. If I'm JB, I pursue Matt Duchene aggressively.


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Mr.53

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My somewhar detailed breakdown of how I coach the team/put people in areas and special teams to succeed.

 

Eriksson - Duchene - Sutter: Eriksson and Duchene provide the offensive touch, while Sutter is the two way presence. Can also take draws if needed. Pressure of Sedins and Duchene also gets top 1c minutes making him likely to resign. Duchene centering two top 6 calibre players stabilizes the rest of the team and lineup for the foreseeable future.

Sedin - Sedin - Virtanen: The Sedins need a Jannik Hansen type forechecker with a shot. Get Virtanen in shape, practice his shot, and give him some Hansen footage. Start there and move. Virtanen is not a playmaker, but he can, and needs to be a mean forechecking, backchecking force that strikes fear into the guys he lines up against. 

Baertschi - Horvat - Boeser: The line is centered around Horvat. They can defend against speedy lines as well as score. Horvat and Baertschi have shown to be a reliable two-way duo. Boeser, honestly is not a bad defensive player in his own right. But if Boeser can add even more scoring touch to this duo, they further take pressure off the Sedins and become a 4 line team.

Boucher - Gaunce - Dorsett: Gaunce and Dorsett play strong reliable defence, and Boucher adds a little scoring touch off the wing. Takes pressure off third line and can defend against stronger meaner lines. Boucher seems to also be a player that can move up the lineup given an injury, but add some offensive spark in a healthy lineup. it's a good mix.

 

Edler - Tanev: Our first pairing. Great when healthy. But shoudl hopefully be better with the rest of the young squad a year better. Vancouver bred leaders. If they can stay healthy and allow Hutton and Gudbranson to play their roles, they will in turn play better. I still think they can lead the team.

Hutton - Gudbranson: Struggled this year, especially when Edler and Tanev went down. but if they can be healthy and learn from their mistakes. Hutton will likely be over his sophmore slump, and Gudbranson will be 1 more year immersed into what exactly his role is in the system.

Tryamkin - Stecher: Our third pairing special teams specialists. Tryamkin specializes PK and Stecher specializes PP. Valuable role players down the lineup. This is what makes the defensive core deadly. Every player provides a valuable role. Both Tryamkin and Stecher have also shown they can move up the lineup in case of injury.

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Special Teams

 

PP1

Sedin - Sedin - Eriksson

--- Duchene - Stecher ---

(I've seen quite a bit of Colorado games. Duchene plays well from the point as a quarterback. He can do it all, but the Sedins are good down low. That PP would be dangerous. Liable for short handed goals, but they could put up some points.)

 

PP2

Boeser - Horvat - Baertschi

--- Virtanen --- Edler (or Hutton)

(Horvat Boeser and Baertschi can all score and have good vision and playmaking ability. But I think that we should try Jake Virtanen on the high point. He could be a guy that you feed for one timers. Edler can also fire a mean clapper if teed up. Hutton has also shown great passing ability and could be an option as well.)

 

PK1

Horvat - Dorsett

Tryamkin - Gudbranson

(Dorsett gets minutes on the PK with Horvat. Tryamkin and Gudbranson are defensive towers.)

 

PK 2

Sutter - Gaunce

Edler - Tanev

(Sutter gets his extra minutes in from not being on the PP with Gaunce who gets groomed to be a PK shot blocking, penalty killer. Edler and Tanev are second out.)

 

This is given they take my trade I made in the forum which is of course is not a given. The team would likely look different because a trade would have to be amended from what I have in my mind. But given that, we have a lot of good players that can play in different roles and special teams, which is a sign of a good future team.

Edited by Mr.53
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Mr.53

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At the bottom I have made my proposal as seen in other threads here. I just wanted to put it down here for no real reason but my own. I figure it would be approprate.

 

So Before we start, let's take a real lesson on the value worth of Top 6 forwards, as discussed in a thread on here. Here are some trades in recent times for top 6 forwards the calibre of Matt Duchene. And here is the real return they actually brought back. Here are 10 different trade's in recent years that should help you gauge the market of what players values are.

 

Ryan Kesler basically for Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa, and a late First round pick: Ryan Kesler, a former selke winner, who, granted gave two teams and demanded a trade, returned Nick Bonino, an impact role playing middle six center as a consolation pieve, Luca Sbisa, the Ducks 6th or 7th dman at the time, and a late first round pick. But this trade goes to show that no, Luca Sbisa, who has only gotten better, is not valueless, and neither are 2nd/3rd pairing defensive defenseman. They're not easy to find. As long as the team gets a first round pick on top, they can use that to draft a new future star player.

  • A consolation piece at center
  • A legitimate NHL calibre role player defensman
  • 1st round pick

 

Jason Spezza and Ludwig Karlsson for Alex Chaisson, Nicholas Paul, Alex Guptill and a 2nd round pick: This just basically boils down to Spezza for Chaisson, Nick Paul. and a 2nd with other peices to balance. Chaisson at the time, as a new guy starting to break into the league with size and skill. He fell off the map since being in Ottawa but at the time, he was a solid consolation piece. A middle 6 winger with potential to become a top 6 winger. On top he got Nick Paul, a B level prospect who seemed like he could have legitimate NHL potential, but wasn't quite a A quality prospect and sure thing. He's faltered a bit since, but he was a 5th rounder after all. and then a 2nd round pick, probably becasue Chaisson had shown some scoring ability. So Spezza, granted he was older and into his prime, for a good consolation piece, a B level prospect and former 5th round pick, and a 2nd round pick in the draft.

  • Consolation piece at forward
  • B level forward prospect
  • 2nd round pick

 

Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson straight: This is a good case of a hockey trade showing the value of a top 6 forward to a impact defensive defensman. An All star forward and arguably franchise type player, for a young defensive defenseman with some promise but not much offense. Still great defensive defenseman. This is more of a hockey trade, but it goes to show how much defensemen are worth. People always look toward the point scoring defenseman, and look at defensemen as useless. Keeping goals out of the net, is just as important as putting them in. 

  • A Bonifide 2nd pairing role playing defensman, who can possibly be a true top pairing guy one day. 

 

TJ Oshie for Troy Brouwer, Pheonix Copley, and a 3rd round pick: TJ Oshie for Troy Brouwer, a middle 6 role player equivalent to a Hansen to replace the spot, some goalie nobody knows, and a 3rd. Hansen is not the best player in the world, but he does have value. I would say his value would be that of say, a middle 6 NHL forward or a 2nd/3rd pairing defenseman. The point here is that Oshie did not bring back star prospects or players, but rather what people would consider spare parts. Brouwer, a middle 6 forward to replace a top 6 forward, (to be fair, Brouwer also adds an intangible physical element), a C level prospect, and a 3rd round pick. That's what TJ Oshie, a top 6 forward got.

  • A Consolation piece at right wing
  • A C level prospect
  • A 3rd round pick

 

Brandon Saad Michael Paliotta, Alexander Broadhurst for Artem Anisimov, Marko Dano, Jeremy Morin, Corey Crop, and a 4th: This is basically Brandon Saad for Artem Anisimov and Marko Dano with other pieces to balance out. So Saad a young beastly Brandon Saad for Anisimov, a role player who fit a need, and Dano, a young near NHL ready prospect meant to join the core. Key here, not somebody like a Horvat. More like say, a Granlund, or slightly more. Saad was also a very young player at the time adding Value. But you get the point. Brandon Saad, a top 6 forward, for a middle 6 forward consolation piece, and a near NHL ready B level prospect.

  • A NHL Calibre Role player (Kind of like a consolation piece as well. Either or)
  • Almost NHL ready B level prospect

 

Milan Lucic for Martin Jones, Colin Miller and 1st round pick: Milan Lucic, a top 6 powerforward, and arguably a irreplaceable presence due to his unique toolset, for at the time, a young goaltending prospect in Martin Jones, (Keep in mind this is before he got good and was still just a good prospect.), Colin Miller, a 5th round pick with offensive upside from the blueline, (Sounds similar to Subban) and a 1st. Again, Lucic is no bumb. And most importantly, due to his powerforward intangibles, was well sought after. The deal they got back was for a backup goaltender with potential that LA didn't need (definition of spare parts), A B level defensive prospect who is actually very similar to Jordan Subban at the time in age, size, skillset, and flaws at the time. Important part here is no Juolevi type player, but more of a Subban type of player. A B level prospect who still hasn't even become an NHL regular for them. And then on top a first round pick, so they can pick their high A level prospect in the draft.

  • A young backup goalie/prospect (About a B+ level)
  • A B level defensive prospect
  • A 1st round pick

 

Jared McCann for Erik Gudbranson (picks balance out): A 19 year old top prospect with future top 6 center potential, for a young defensive defenseman with some promise but not much offense. What this shows is that top prospects have value. McCann is a guy who is seen as a possible future top 6 forward, and he brought back a defensive defenseman that can bare score at all. Defenseman have value, even defensive defenseman. Point here is that Defensemen are the players in this league with value. Similar to the Hall trade, a defenseman seemed to get larger return they deserved. That's because as Trevor Linden said, it's incredibly hard to trade for a defenseman in this league. Nobody wants to give them up, and so they demand top dollar.

  • A 2nd pairing role playing defenseman who has upwards potential.

 

Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones straight: The definition of a hockey trade. Two players in similar age filling the other players need. A top 6 center for a 1st/2nd pairing dman at about the same age. Both players are assumed to become a bonafide first liner, and bonafide defenseman. For someone like Duchene that would be a Hamonic or so, but not much more. Both in similar age and requiring contracts to be re-uped soon. Point here is a guy like Duchene would not go get an high level impact defenseman and than on top high level prospects. Either he will get a skilled two-way defenseman at about the same age, or spare parts.

  • A similar aged stud at the same position. (A Hockey Trade)

 

Ryan O'Reilly and Jamie McGinn for Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, JT Compher, and a 2nd round pick: Now this one is tricky, as Jamie McGinn is an NHL role player in of himself. So it's Ryan O'Reilly, a young superstar two-way forward who was 23 at the time, and a role player, for 2 1st round quality prospects and 2 lessor prospects. At the time McGinn was an impact player. No all star but impact equal to a younger Hansen or so. I would say if you eliminate Jamie McGinn it boils down to Ryan O'Reilly for 2 high quality prospects or so. If you throw in our first in exchange for their second (likely 31st overall), then a 1 way Duchene costing 2 roster players, a 1st and a quality prospect in Subban seems pretty fair.

  • A- Quality forward prospect
  • A- Quality defensive prospect
  • B Quality forward prospect

 

     Also, sidenote: Keep in mind. Who is often a player comparable to Bo Horvat? Ryan O'Reilly. Who is showing early signs of greatness much like Ryan O'Reilly did? Bo Horvat. That is what Bo Horvat is worth, because that is what Bo Horvat is becoming for us. So people, please, stop undervaluing our players. Horvat is a franchise cornerstone type of player you build around. Teams would offer an arm and a leg to get him right before he explodes. So please. Show the kid some respect.

 

***Bobby Ryan for Jakob Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen, 1st round pick***: This one is important because this is the most comparable player in Value to Matt Duchene. As another has pointed out

  • Bobby Ryan was 26 years old, as Matt Duchene is right now.
  • Both players have had 4 50+ point season's with with 1 or two 60 or 70 point system
  • Both were massively talented players that should have produced much better offensively than they did. But still, holds the talent to be a superstar

Now even he only received Silfverberg, a younger worse version of Ryan as a consolation piece. (Similar to like a Markus Granlund to Matt Duchene.) Stefan Noesen, a B level forward prospect. Former first round pick still so some might consider him higher, but he was not like a Boeser who has already turned heads around the league. He hasn't seen much success since, but still, at the time, a solid B or B+ prospect. On top of that, like a pattern we've seen before, A first round pick so they can pick any player they want and hopefully get their own new star. (This pick turned out to be a top 10 pick where they got Nick Ritchie and it worked out, but they didn't know that at the time of the trade.)

  • Consolation piece at the wing
  • A B level prospect at forward
  • A 1st round pick

 

This one in particular is as close of a case study as you can find, and even this return doesn't come close to what people around here are thinking. If the Avs wanted a player like a Hutton, the deal would have to honestly be a Granlund, Hutton, and a 2nd or so. The key here is that it's Ryan didn't bring back a Juolevi,1st rounder, + or a Boeser, first rounder, +. The equivalent to all the pieces in this trade would be Granlund to Silfverberg, Noesen to a B level prospect, and a 1st round pick equals to a first round pick. Luca Sbisa is just an added piece that makes their blueline younger, faster, and more capable. Finding Tyson Barrie a good replacement for next season and on, is not valueless. Look at the list of free agents this year. I don't see many names wanting to sign in Colorado. They are going to need to import help, while addressing their other issues.

 

That's 10 different NHL trades that actually happened in real life. Don't go getting your evaluations of value and worth from bad sources. Even forums like this have proven that people undervlaue our players, overvalue other players, and generally don't really know the reality of worth. They understand that teams, like say a Colorado, want the farm and a bunch of top pieces back for a guy a top 6 player like Duchene, but they don't get that the rest of the GMs are laughing at the thought. When two sides come down to an agreement, the deal tends to look a lot more like the ones above. (Or literally exactly like them as they are deals) One team gets a couple pieces they could use, but nothing quite too valuable that the other side gets fleeced. In fact a lot of times they give 'spare parts' and the deals tend to work out. And that's real life.

 

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My Point is: generally speaking all of these returns brought back a mix of 5 pieces. 

  • A B level prospect: A young guy that has NHL potential but is not a sure thing. Guys like Boeser and Juolevi are blue chipper A quality prospects. Guys like Colin Miller, Setan Noesen, and Jordan Subban are B level prospects). Generally they like them a bit older and along in development. A lot of these B level prospect guys don't even make the league. That's what makes it hard, it needs to be one that they have a fairly good feeling about.
  • A 1st round pick: These are valuable because the team can spend it on whoever they want. Like a new gem stud dman they found. Generally speaking, deals have first round picks so that the franchise doesn't have to give up one of their guys they have started to develop and the other team gets their pick of the lot to start fresh. Sometimes it's not even a first rounder, but generally this is what brings the value.
  • Legitimate proven NHL role player. These players tend to be either a middle 6 forward (to replace a top 6 forward) or a 2nd/3rd pairing defenseman to fill a role. (Generally defensive defensman) They don't tend to bring back 1st or 2nd pairing dmen, unless it's a 1 on 1 hockey deal. Dmen are worth too much. This player is brought in to help an immediate need next season. He's not a gamechanging star, but someone that can help in an area of need, like mild scoring, grit, or defense. Don't undervalue NHL calibre players, especially when your franchise is in that bad of shape. Hard to sell your team to UFAs when you're dead last.
  • A Consolation piece: AKA a player that plays the same position and role, but is younger and on a cheaper contract. Hopefully has some potential to get better. A lot of times, this piece crosses with the legit NHL role player, but often times, teams want a player that fills the need, and then a consolation piece to help stop the bleeding of losing a big time player/the best player in the deal. Also tends to be a middle 6 forward for a top 6 forward. This isn't where the true value comes from.
  • **OR** a Hockey trade: None of these 'spare parts' for top 6 forwards deals, and instead, it's a straight one on one trade. Top 6 forward, for Impact 1st/2nd pairing defenseman straight up. Otherwise known as a hockey trade. We don't really have anyone that we could use in this scenario, to be fair, but not many teams are willing to give up a top defensive two-way guy like they are looking for right now.

 

The Avalanche wants (I know, "they want a top pairing D, and a young blue chip prospect, and a first round pick to start convo!" yada yada anyway...) 

  • Get younger: Get younger, and faster in a league moving in that direction. The new generation of the NHL focuses on speed and moving the puck. You need quality NHL defenseman, even defensive defensemen to do that.
  • Defensive help: The Avs can score. We all know that. And they are about the get the first overall. Probably either Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischer. Neither have a problem scoring. they need to stop goals on the NHL level.
  • Future pieces: Like a first round pick or young prospect. Now of course they want a top notch blue chip prospect on top of a 1st round pick, but GMs are not that dumb unless they are incredibly desperate. So they will either get a top blue chip prospect, or a B level prospect and a 1st round pick. My suspicion however, is not many teams want to give up on their blue chip defenders. And I mean like none.
  • Consolation piece: They haven't specifically asked for this, but history shows, GMs generally like a replacement roster player of less quality to help the sting. This much can just be assumed. (Which is why I accept Granlund is a goner if we get Duchene.)

 

Edited by Mr.53
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Mr.53

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So... The trade pieces we have to maintain our core and set this team on track:

 

B level defensive prospects: We have 3 choices These are players that are not sure things, but rather have a somewhere between 50-60% chance at making it.

  • Jordan Subban: High skilled offensive PMD. Shows NHL calibre skills on multiple levels, however is undersized and struggles to defend against NHL opponents. Could be a valuable get if you pick him up, have him develop and fine tune his game in the summer and come to camp electric. Very Similar to Colin Miller who was used in the Lucic deal. Still, may be to risky for a team at bad at keeping pucks out as they are. But he could be a good partner for Nikita Zadorov on the bottom pairing, similar to a possible Tryamkin Stecher line for us.
  • Guilliame Brisebois: Good all around prospect that oozes leadership. Everywhere the man goes, everyone raves about how he just radiates leader and elevates everyone in the room. Good player, who is showing good progression and an all around skillset. The Avs could use versitile defensmen, but what they could really use, is some leadership. Could be a good get.
  • Carl Neill: Late round pick like most of the B level prospects that have been dealt. But he shows definiate skill, and has been propressing well. He was an older player when Benning drafted him, taking a gamble, and it's seeming to pay off with real production and progression. He is in the same position a lot of guys, that have gotten dealt in these kinds of deals have been. He's bigger than Subban with an NHL body which could be appealing.

Draft picks: We want our picks but you have to give to get

  • 2017 1st round: I'd be willing to give a first before the deadline, but if they wait and after if we have a high pick, forget it. They should have gambled. But a first round pick is fine by my book.
  • 2018 1st round: I would also be willing to give them our 2018 first round pick, but it's an either or. If this deal happens in the summer, it will have to be a 2018. Only way they get both is if they throw in Lanseskog or Tyson and we do something to make this a super deal. But I don't see that happening.

Legitimate NHL defenseman: We have 3 legitimate choices. Alex Edler has a no move and is much too old with a history of injury)

  • Chris Tanev: Not that great of a fit. He fits value wise being a good player, but I don't think he fits what the Avs want very well. The Avs top right side is covered with barrie and Johnson when healthy. That's a lot of money tied up. Now Tanev could give them another option, and maybe could move someone or try some interesting pairings, but really, Eriks Johnson is a better version of Tanev himself. He's a defensive defensman with size and mroe offensive ability. I don't see Tanev as that great of a fit, teamwise, but I do see him better valuewise.
  • Luca Sbisa: Sbisa is seen as a joke around here. I find that laughable. I don't think Sbisa is a bad player at all. I think that since he was acquired, he shut up, put his head down, and put work into his game. Now he's one of our most versitile defensmen with the ability to play on any pairing, with anyone, on any side, and give you good results. not fantastic results, but god. He's a solid NHL calibre 2nd/3rd pairing defensman in this league. On a team like Chicago, he'd be a 3rd liner, but on a team like Colorado, 2nd line for sure. He would probably become Tyson Barrie's linemate and partner, given that he can log minutes at 27 and put up 15-20 points or so.
  • Erik Gudbranson: Like Tanev I don't see that much of a fit, as again, Erik Johnson what we want Erik Gudbranson to turn into but he will never be. The only thing is that Colorado could get Erik Gudbranson to play on the 2nd pairing, and then with that flexibility move Erik Johnson to a team looking for a 1st/2nd pairing d man. They get a defensive defensman as well as a package for Duchene, and then trade Erik Johnson for another forward to replace that spot. As I've explained impact twp-way forwards have some value in this league. Erik Gudbranson can help with defense, while you get another piece at forward. This would cause mroe problems valuewise with the deal however.

A Consolation piece: We have one real choice for this need

  • Markus Granlund: Markus Granlund is the perfect consolation piece. Duchene is a 27 year old top 6 NHL center. Markus Granlund is a 23 year old, middle 6 NHL center. Both of them are undersized players, who have the versatility to play the wing when needed, as well as on special teams. Both of them are not bad defensive players by any means, but aren't exactly known for their stellar lockdown play. They are versitile top 6 centers in the league. Duchene is just the much better top 6 version that we could only dream Markus Granlund turned into. He, like Bonino and SIlfverberg, is on a much cheaper contract, (and will be an RFA in this case) and has still shown he can play and contribute on the NHL level. On Granlund's case, he's pretty much a rookie in the sense he's getting his first full year in the NHL. He's shown he can go upward. I've pretty much accepted, any deal for Duchene means Granny is gone.
  • Sven Baertschi(?):  Not really a fit. Or not really close if you look at Granlund. He would also cause the deal to look more different in my opinion, however a lot would argue he and Granlund are on the same level. So to those people I say, ok Baertschi too. You have to give to get.

**OR** 1 on 1 hockey trade: I don't think we can do this option.

 

So there, that is my breakdown of what an NHL top 6 forward is worth, and pieces the Canucks have that are comparable. In this case, specifically to Colorado for Duchene.

 

I think Duchene could get a deal for a role player NHLer and a top D prospect, but I just don't see any GM wanting to lose a top defensive prospect like that rigjht now. Carolina is actually a decent possibility with Haydn Fleury as he is dropping from an A prospect into B status. I but don't think they're giving up one of their young D and a 1st round pick. Generally in these deals GMs either get a young player they've been eyeing and a medium pick, or a 1st rounder and a medium prospect, but not a top d prospect and a 1st.

 

My deal that I've offered in threads. (But I'm open to any piece I have added here, and some others depending on the return.)

 

Matt Duchene to Vancouver in return for

  • Markus Granlund: Consolation piece for Matt Duchene. Mandatory in these type of deals. Granny is a good young player, but you have to give. 
  • Luca Sbisa: An NHL role payer that they can use next season in a role of desperate need, a player who can help keep pucks out of the net besie someone like Tyson Barrie. He has solidified himself in the leage as a 2nd/3rd pairing defensive defensman. He's younger and getting to his prime like Barrie too. Also, don't underestimate how hard it is to sign free agents who can actually play when you're a bottom feeder.
  • 1st Round Pick: As shown in many past deals. This is where a lot of value comes from. Colorado gets to draft their own defensive prospect that fills their need and restocks their cupboard. ( I would also make this a conditional pick, where we can elect to give them next years if we pick top 10 or something.)
  • (Choice) B level prospect or 2nd round pick next draft: As deals in the past have shown, they tend to either have a B level prospect, a 2nd round pick, or another mid level piece. They get their pick of any of our B level defensive prospects, (Subban, Brisebois, or Neill) or a 2nd round pick in next year's draft. 

 

Generally, a deal for a top 6 forward contains 2 or 3 of the four pieces above. Never all four. It also fills the needs Colorado has in getting younger on the NHL level both at forward and defense, defensive help in keeping pucks out of the net as well as a consolation piece which is customary. Then they get two pieces for their future. a B level defensive prospect of their choice, and a first round pick, that can literally be anything they want. If I'm them, I make the deal at the deadline, and hope we don't make the playoffs so they get 2 bomb draft picks. In return for gaining the multiple pieces they want/need, Vancouver gets the best player in the deal.

 

Colorado drafts Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischer at the deadline, as a stud Dman with our draft pick. They give Luca Sbisa a contract extenion and pair him up with Tyson Barrie. They then focus on finding Erik Johnson a linemate for the top 4 as well. Granlund gets middle 6 minutes, also giving them flexibility to make even more moves or start building depth. With the first overall pick, they really aren't losing much in Duchene.

 

Fair deal for both sides. No package has had all 4 of those pieces come back, each one being at about equal value to those in deals of the past. Everyone wins. Colorado fills many different organizational needs going into next season, and Vancouver in return gets the best player, and fulfills their biggest need. Colorado doesn't even lose their best player. They lose their number 3 or 4 guy, while Vancouver doesn't give up their best prospects and pieces. Duchene brings them more than anyone has in the past, and Vancouver walks away with their main core still held together, ready and set. Fair both ways.

Edited by Mr.53
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You still don't answer the Av's asking price.  It's not about being close in value, it's about the av's filling a need. If a team says they want a goalie for their #1 center, it doesn't matter that a #1 center in the past was traded for x,y, and z.   Av's aren't interested in x,y, and z, Av's are interested in a young high end D.  The Av's aren't making a deal without getting close to there need.  

 

LeBrun on TSN 690 on the asking price for Duchene.

Quote

“It’s been laid out by Joe Sakic to about a dozen teams,” noted LeBrun. “He wants a high-end, young prospect-age defenseman – or if not prospect, in his early 20s – as part of a package that also includes plus-plus. Whether that’s a first-round pick and another asset, who knows. Depends on the team making the offer. But it’s a huge ask for Matt Duchene.”

The closest thing canucks have to that ask is Hutton or Juolevi, which you didn't mention.  

 

And Av's don't have a need for Granlund.  They already have Mackinnon  Soderberg, Grigorenko, Colborne and Jost coming up in the pipelines.  Grigorenko is a year younger, also plays C/LW and is nearly at the exact same point production as Granlund is this year and his defensive game has taken huge strides this year and would be very comparable if not already surpassed granlund this year.  He's also got a 55% winning percentage in the faceoff circle unlike granlund who's at 39%.  The av's really don't have a need for granlund, They have a bigger need for a top 6 RW, than granlund.

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Mr.53

Posted (edited)

This is what both franchises would basically look like going into free agency and next season. I assume in this situation Vancouver will lose Hansen, and Colorado will lose Varlamov to Las Vegas. Those are just the most likely players, and they're frankly guys both teams can do without. If I was the Avs, I would look to talk to Baeuchemin at the expansion, and ask him to waive his no movement. There's almost no chance he get's picked up.

 

 

Vancouver Canucks                           Colorado Avalanche

Eriksson - Duchene - Sutter                Landeskog - Mackinnon - Rantannen: (A not terrible first line. They can actually get the job done.)

Sedin - Sedin - Virtanen                       Grigorenko - (Patrick?) - Nietto: (The pick they get will surely be able to at least take on second line minutes)

Baertschi - Horvat - Boeser                 Granlund - Soderberg - Colborne: (Granlund makes this third pairing actually pretty good all around.)

Boucher - Gaunce - Dorsett                Comeau - Martinsen - Grimaldi: (Strong 4th line with a scorer. A strong bottom 6 will do wonders for defending.)

 

Edler - Tanev                                        Baeuchemin - Johnson: (Veteran Leadership at the forefront while prospects develop.)

Hutton - Gudbranson                           Sbisa - Barrie: (Barrie plays up while Sbisa plays stay at home. He's shown he can be versatile enough to be a longtime partner.)

Tryamkin - Stecher                               Zadorov - (Wiercrioch): (This spot can be filled by a guy like Subban which would make their line strangely similar to ours, or they can wait and let another young guy develop. That bottom pairing looks scary to match up against.)

 

G - Markstrom                                      G - Pickard

 

Top 5 Prospects for Both Organizations

 

Vancouver Canucks                    Colorado Avalanche

1. Olli Juolevi                                1. Tyson Jost

2. Thatcher Demko                       2. JT Compher

3. Adam Gaudette                        3. Nicolas Meloche

4. (B level prospect)                     4. (1st round pick from Van)

5. (B level prospect)                     5. (B level prospect from Van)

 

Our B prospects would be the two they didn't pick in the deal. All of a sudden, Colorado has a stable team, and has filled most of their organizational holes. They can go into next season, and then focus on retooling. But if you ask me, that's walking out pretty good for losing Duchene, a guy whose going to walk in 2 years anyway.

 

 

 

 

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Mr.53

Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

You still don't answer the Av's asking price.  It's not about being close in value, it's about the av's filling a need. If a team says they want a goalie for their #1 center, it doesn't matter that a #1 center in the past was traded for x,y, and z.   Av's aren't interested in x,y, and z, Av's are interested in a young high end D.  The Av's aren't making a deal without getting close to there need.  

 

LeBrun on TSN 690 on the asking price for Duchene.

The closest thing canucks have to that ask is Hutton or Juolevi, which you didn't mention.  

 

And Av's don't have a need for Granlund.  They already have Mackinnon  Soderberg, Grigorenko, Colborne and Jost coming up in the pipelines.  Grigorenko is a year younger, also plays C/LW and is nearly at the exact same point production as Granlund is this year and his defensive game has taken huge strides this year and would be very comparable if not already surpassed granlund this year.  He's also got a 55% winning percentage in the faceoff circle unlike granlund who's at 39%.  The av's really don't have a need for granlund, They have a bigger need for a top 6 RW, than granlund.

Oh I did not expect you here. I mainly just wrote this so I'd have a place to look back in the future if Duchene gets traded for a similar package on this team or on another team. It's basically getting my thoughts in order. I'm going to be away from my laptop and this site for a while. Just wanted to get it down. But we have discussed this at noisome. 

 

Dreger also said that he has asked GMs around the league about Sakic's asking price and he has said most GMs find it laughable and ridiculoous, which is why they are standing pat and no deal has been made. Most likely a deal won't be made until the summer. I just wanted to get my thoughts down in one place, and for my cousin to look at. But I really do appreciate your input. We disagree, and are simply not going to move eachother. I do respect your opinion though. You use facts and I like that.

 

If you were to use Hutton for deal, I still wouldn't neccesarily be opposed.

 

Hutton, Granlund, and a 1st for Duchene and a conditional 2nd. 3rd, if Vancouver makes the playoffs.

 

Something like that. Which I'm not necessarily opposed too.

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Mr.53

Posted (edited)

Now that the deadline has passed, I have made an alternate modified proposal for the deadline. At this point in time, I am comfortable enough with letting Hutton go and focusing his spot on Juolevi. This is one due to Tryamkin being a beast on the left side defensively, and Brisebois showing he has bottom pairing potential at least. I would be for losing Hutton to get a player like Duchene. My new deal.

 

To Van: Matt Duchene, and Francois Beauchemin (Col retains 50 percent salary his last season)

To Col: Ben Hutton, Jordan Subban, Markus Granlund, 2017 2ndConditional 2018 1st (becomes a 2nd if Canucks don't make the playoffs)

(I would honestly even be willing to throw in Columbus's 2nd round pick we get this year as well. We don't exactly need it that much at this point with an added Goldobin and Dahlen.)

 

Why Vancouver does the deal

  • Matt Duchene: Top 6 center and best player in the deal. Takes pressure off Henrik. Helps Horvat's development as another center to bounce off of longterm. Helps Eriksson's production most likely. Still young enough to join, and lead the youth movement. We've already been over all the things Duchene could and would bring.
  • Francois Beauchemin: Veteran defenseman purely for Stecher's development next season. Helps Stecher defensively playing a stay at home style, allowing him to be the offensive puck mover and PP man he is.  Also gives Juolevi 1 more season to develop and add size. And yes, I know Beachemin is on a no move, but I think he would waive to get out of that team and go somewhere he is wanted.
  • (Late Pick): This is only if we also give CBJs second. We have to at least get a late pick back.

 

Why Colorado does the deal

  • Ben Hutton: A young NHL calibre defenseman. Exactly what the asked for. Hutton could also be a very good partner for Erik Johnson on the second pairing. Also a positive attitude for the lockeroom. Good young established defenseman like they wanted.
  • Jordan Subban: A B level prospect to add to Meloche and Bigras. He brings something different. Meloche would remain their top defensive prospect, while Bigras would be their defensive defenseman prospect and Subban their offensive defenseman prospect.
  • Markus Granlund: A consolation piece at center/wing. These deals tend to also contain a similar piece at the same position to lesson the hit of losing their star forward. As we've discussed Granlund is the perfect consolation piece. A middle 6 forward to replace a top 6 forward.
  • 2017 2nd Round: A good prospect probably around 31-35 of Colorado's choice. They can take another defenseman if they want or whoever. Our first round pick this year is completely off the table. It will probably be a top 5 pick. I'm guessing 4 or 5 after Vegas. Wouldn't trade that for Duchene straight up.
  • 2018 1st Round (conditional): If we make the playoffs, they get another first. With Duchene are team is much more likely to do so. A year from now, they can take a look at their needs and take whatever player they want.
  • (2017 CBJ 2nd Round: This is just added value to get them to do the deal at the deadline. Again, with Goldobin and Dahlen recently added to the prospect pool, this pick really isn't that needed. I would much rather have Duchene. But hopefully, we would get at least a late pick back for losing so many pieces.)

 

New 2017 roster

Eriksson - Duchene - Goldobin (Maybe Goldobin isn't ready for first line, but I think this line is a good fit. He has talent. Try it.)

Sedin - Sedin - Sutter (We've seen this line work before. The Sedins and Sutter also become special teams specialists.)

Baertschi - Horvat - Boeser (Defends against top lines, and also gets Boeser going. Develop chemistry to soon take second line.)

Boucher - Gaunce - Dorsett (Just a good 4th line overall.)

 

Edler - Gudbranson (Good top pairing, can defend against big guys and Edler can use offensive punch)

Tryamkin - Tanev (Second pairing focusing on defending against other quality forwards. Tanev can still move the puck, but they play defensive D.)

Beauchemin - Stecher (Stecher plays offensive while a veteran Beauchemin covers for him.) 

 

Markstrom

(UFA)

 

Top prospects

  1. 2017 1st - Hopefully a center/wing (my guess is, it will probably be Mittlestadt or Vilardi)
  2. Juolevi - in London (CHL) Would likely join the team after one more year to replace Baeuchemin.
  3. Virtanen - in Utica (AHL) 
  4. Demko - In Utica (AHL) 
  5. Dahlen - In Utica (AHL)
  6. Gaudette - In Northeastern (NCAA)
  7. Brisebois - In Utica (AHL)
  8. Neill - In Utica (AHL)
  9. Lockwood - In Michigan (NCAA)
  10. Zhukenov - In Utica (AHL)

 

Utica also gets a major boost next season with the additions of Virtanen, Demko, Dahlen, Brisebois, Neill and Zhukenov btw. Pair guys like Virtanen and Dahlen up with a pure playmaker in the middle and Brisebois and Neill to help out Demko on the defensive side, Utica will have a bounce back season. 

 

But still, this deal is more than fair for a player like Matt Duchene. The Avalanche get 3 young pieces to fill holes they need. As well as 2 or 3 high draft picks all for Duchene and a throw away piece in Beauchemin and maybe a late pick. This is an excellent deal for Colorado and a good deal for Vancouver. Vancouver even losing all those pieces but keeping their first round plus top prospects like Boeser and Juolevi, we'll be in fine shape.

 

Edited by Mr.53
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Obviously, if a bad team could only have Duchesne on their roster, it would make them competitive.

 

...Oh...wait...

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