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TheSecretIsMe

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  1. You are such a homer...the team has been a huge disappointment since 2012. The ownership is a major issue. Remember back around 2010 - 2012 when they were going to hire the mental coach out Europe (I think he worked for a major soccer club at the time) and then when he sold his home, and picked up everything to move the Aquilini's literally bailed on the deal. I believe it went to court too. There's also been other seriously unethical cases made against them. There's been two constants for the last decade, one is the team has been no good, the other is that the Aquilini's are unethical, almost criminal owners with a track record to match.
  2. What ought to be isn't what is though. Our government is in bed with the real estate industry, you have people like Christy Clark who have a vested interest in the housing market continuing to remain afloat and growing. There was an article released recently that stated that the Liberal gov't provided a near 0% interest loan to a developer building majority luxury condos..the real messed up part was that they took the money out of the social housing budget. Also, they provided this same developer for the same project with a $3,000,000 grant..best part was that the this same developer donated $400,000 to the liberal. Conflict of interest anyone? Not to mention, the federal government is no better. They don't actually give a crap about the people, the focus is moreso on making $$. You have people like Christy being advised by people who are invested in the real estate industry, why would they risk losing their money by doing the right thing? I don't think it has ever worked out that way, if that was the case we would have renewable energy taking over oil many years ago, but no, things only change when the $$ makes sense. Good for David Eby trying to stimulate important and appropriate discussion.
  3. I would think that they wouldn't want to come down on foreigners any harder than they already are, but there's also the notion that Canada is becoming a hub for this kind of thing which isn't a good look. Also, the CRA has been getting flack over the last 2 years about their lax behavior with foreigners. In my mind, they would only react if there was enough negative political rhetoric around the issue - Panama Papers, articles, TIC. Our government is definitely more reactive than proactive.
  4. I edited my post, I misread the article as it states they were threatened by the Hells Angels. Still interesting though, I wonder if the drama is over or if there was some kind of settlement behind the scenes. Perhaps its on-going..? Nonetheless, interesting stuff. Also, how do you feel about Transparency International Canada's findings?
  5. So apparently the Onni Group (well known developers) were threatened by the Hells Angels.. link: http://gangstersoutt.blogspot.ca/2016/06/hells-angel-damiano-dipopolo-and-de.html Also, looks like they've been in some trouble lately: http://www.cknw.com/2017/03/30/developer-skirting-short-term-rental-rules-a-repeat-offender-city-of-vancouver/ Meanwhile..
  6. The Federal Reserve raised rates again today, expecting Canadian banks to increase fixed term mortgage rates again as well. https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/mar/15/federal-reserve-interest-rates-uk-unemployment-business-live
  7. The real estate board follows a benchmark price when releasing stats, which, considered by many, is not a very accurate depiction of current prices in the market. Average selling price is generally the more common measure as it doesn't include unnecessary information in its calculation. According to the video below, average prices have fallen 17.5% from the peak.
  8. The concept here is not that they aren't tied to BoC rates, they are, to a certain extent; however, US treasury yields play a vital role in the process as well. If you look at current fixed term rates you'll notice they have gone up from previous years. The graph I've attached also shows the uptick in fixed term mortgages, despite BoC consistently lowering rates. 'Harvey Spector' has found graphs of what we were touching on just above my post.
  9. Agreed, there's always a ton of moving pieces and I don't think anyone can predict anything outside of a 1-3 month window with any level of certainty. But, if we look at the direction interest rates are trending, it is definitely upwards. BoC has stated they will not raise rates until at least 2018, but that could potentially change if our dollar takes an aggressive punch. As mentioned before, our fixed term mortgages are not strictly tied to the BoC rates anyhow, so only the variable rate would remain under considerable control of our economy until 2018. Now couple this with free-falling sales in the detached sector.. So, from an objective point of view, that would beg the question of how sustainable current prices are. Many realtors argue that condo sales have not slid as significantly because they are the only things locals can afford. Let's say there is a substantial decrease in detached home values of 30-40% correction, effectively making detached homes more aligned with local incomes, what kind of impact would this have on the condo market? (some argue it's already begun as some homes are selling 10-20% below asking, which would be unheard of 6 months ago -- notably in South Surrey, Tri-cities, and West-side/East-side Van)
  10. Haha, you would think that to be the case but it's evident that hysteria runs rampant.
  11. You're absolutely correct, my example wasn't intended to cover all macro/micro economic factors at play just to give a high level understanding of the correlation. As for the graph, I tried doing a quick search and couldn't find one, however it's easy to find articles on how and why the 10-year treasury yields guide Canadian mortgage rates.
  12. Because fixed-term mortgage rates in Canada move in tandem with US 10-year treasury yields. So, as the US has begun to raise their interest rates our fixed term mortgage rates are also on the rise. You can look this up in greater detail if you're interested. I think the best example I can provide you is how a interest rate rise in the US (assuming we lower ours or keep it the same) generally has the economic impact of reducing the value of our currency. Why? Because banks/investors tend to sell off their $C for $US as it earns more return, thus reducing the demand of $C and putting downward pressure on prices. If we look at the US bond market and our fixed-term mortgage market we observe similar patterns playing out as lenders will offer higher fixed term mortgage rates. Why? Essentially they can offer you money for 5-10 years at 2.3% or they could purchase US treasury bonds with a higher yield.
  13. Interest rates are already on the rise, specifically fixed-term mortgage rates as they are tied to global rates and not the BoC rates. Not only this, but with the new rules imposed by the CMHC locals can expect higher rates on renewals as well, as lenders take on more risk. The one issue I see with our lower end of the market is that its really not 'low end'. Detached homes in Surrey (7000 sqft lot 2500sqft home) still go for 750K-950K, which I would argue is the lower end of our market. Take into account average income levels (75K/household) and the new rate qualifications, I could see a substantial decrease as even those who want to purchase don't get approved for a mortgage. I think the other thing to look into is the level of speculation. How many people jumped into the market to make a quick buck, and now are struggling to break-even? Also, in terms of condos, I could see a decline as detached homes fall in value and those looking to purchase condos substitute for land + home.
  14. CMHC to issue first ‘red’ warning for Canada’s housing market BRENT JANG VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail Published Monday, Oct. 17, 2016 4:57AM EDT Last updated Monday, Oct. 17, 2016 1:21PM EDT “House prices across Canada remain higher than levels consistent with personal disposable income, population growth and other fundamental factors,” CMHC said in July. It added that the risk of problematic conditions would increase “if the acceleration in prices intensifies in Ontario and British Columbia so as to outweigh challenges in the oil-dependent provinces.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/cmhc-to-issue-first-red-warning-for-canadas-housing-market/article32386112/
  15. Yeah, you're right they do generally adjust. However, the one thing that's different compared to other years is that prices rose 30-40% over 6-10months. Which was driven by foreign investors, which have disappeared from the market. So that 30-40% over-valued home is going to correct significantly. Lets not forget that that debt to income ratios have risen above 165% this year as well. Many of these people have over-leveraged in the market (over-bid as well) assuming they could quickly sell their homes like everyone was. The 15% tax, luxury tax speculation, and changes in mortgage qualification has taken a lot of people out of the market. Nobody wants to buy anything because they don't know what to expect; such as my family. So what's happening now is that people are putting their homes on the market to get out of debt and others are building new homes which they overpaid for the property in hopes of selling and there's not enough buyers. Say what you want, this is looking really ugly especially 6 months from now.
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