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drofssalg

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Everything posted by drofssalg

  1. This buyout was simply about short term cap space. Obviously trading someone without attaching high value assets (which Canucks are in short supply of) was not going to happen. So while I am disappointed in the buyout at least it proves this management group understands that giving up assets for cap space is not smart (now watch them blow their brains out on a trade just to prove me wrong). Good news is 2023/24 cap space concerns are resolved. Bad news is EP40 still needs a new contract and the buyout hit for 25/26 and 26/27 is just shy of 5 million... All they did was kick the ball down the field and not actually fix the cap issue. They are betting a significant rise in the salary cap. (edit - spelling)
  2. Cap hell? Yes. If both Poolman and Pearson come off of LTIR that is $5.75 million back on the books and that essentially creates cap hell. Quick math on the committed cap for next season is $81 million. Leaving $1.5 million on an $82.5 million cap (current). This means $1.5 to sign Bear, Dermott and Kravtsov and a hole at 3rd line centre. Of course the cap should increase so that will alleviate a little pressure but certainly will not relieve it all. List as follows (you can do your own math from Capfriendly): Forwards - Garland, Miller, Boeser, Pettersson, Kuzmenko, Mikheyev, Podkolzin, Beauvillier, Joshua, Pearson, Aman, Kravstov (missing 3rd line C and one spare forward) Defense - Hughes, Myers, Hronek, OEL, Bear, Dermott, Poolman (awful D core even with Hronek added). Goalies - Demko, Martin (may need an upgrade on backup) Total is just over 81 million Management obviously knows Poolman's and Pearson's status. We don't. So until confirmed otherwise, Pearson and Poolman are assumed to be active roster players and have to include their cap hit. Cap space is an issue until there are answers on Poolman and Pearson's health and who is traded out (Myers, Boeser, Garland) and what comes back (dollars are coming back on any trade). And let's not pull a Benning and forget about the following season when Pettersson, Beauvillier and Hronek will need new contracts so those increases need to be thought of in the context of what is added or subtracted for 23/24. Pray Podkolzin "doesn't" have a monster year next year as well - get him on a good 3 year bridge before he progresses. This will definitely be resolved by October but it will not be easy and 31 other GMs are not going to play nice. Right now the Canucks are definitely in cap hell. There will be trades and buyouts... And cheap contracts filling in the bottom part of the roster.
  3. I did not want to knee jerk reaction post yesterday so I took a bit of time to process it. Two picks in the top 40 in this draft (2023 is an excellent draft) is an overpay. I get that Hronek is a good right shot D - something the Canucks are sorely lacking. The lack of draft picks is a concern given that the prospect pool is shallow. There is so little to look forward to, I just hope we end up with a prospect coming out of nowhere. Cap space is still a mess. Myers is not tradeable without retention. OEL is not tradeable without strapping a first to him. Boeser seems to be unwanted given his contract. Miller's extension is about to kick in. Beauvillier, Hronek and of course Pettersson are all up at the end of next season (fortunately Myers does come off the books then). There is no easy path to fixing this mess other than patience and management just went out and added 8 plus million (Hronek and Beauvillier) - in essence they kicked the Horvat contract issue down the field by a year. Don't get me wrong, I understand the need for a good right shot D. I get you have to give to get. But this one hurts. There was a little bit of hope that with some smart drafting this June the Canucks could see a path forward. But instead they have their own first (wonder if they trade that too) and nothing more. I get there are no guarantees with picks or prospects, it just feels to me like the Canucks are going to waste Pettersson and Hughes by trying to not waste Pettersson and Hughes. This fan is very disappointed with this trade. Similar to the trades for Miller (not ready for a player like Miller at the time) and OEL/Garland, this trade just has the "wasted" feel to it. Time will tell how it works out but I am not optimistic. Personally I think the Canucks go nowhere until a true rebuild is done and given managements desire to retool this (again) they have just committed to 5 seasons of mediocrity. Hopefully after that the next management will embrace a rebuild.
  4. Seems like deja vu... I think we did this last year. I keep track of the team's results and look at the playoff bar to see what is needed to get there. Last year 19 games played for 14 points. This year 19 games played for 15 points. Yikes... not good to see no real change there. My current math says for a 96 point playoff cut off the Canucks need to run out the remaining 63 games with 81 points. Essentially a 106 point pace on a full season. My rule of thumb to assess the reality of it is the win % - to get to 96 points over 63 games is almost 2 wins out of every 3 games (66%). That is not going to happen. I called for it last year, I will call for it again - a rebuild. Let's get on with addressing the needs of this roster. I would rather see an honest rebuild that takes another 5 years over being mired in never never land for the next 5 years hoping for some sort of fluke run. I get there are no guarantees for a Cup but from my perspective the current path never gets the Canucks one. A rebuild is needed.
  5. If I can add to this. Unless you are a true contender all teams need pieces. How many pieces is the differentiation between rebuild and retool. The Canucks need a rebuild - there are good pieces in place sure, but not enough and perhaps that mix is wrong. Oddly enough, look at Calgary. They were a decent team with some good players. But they went nowhere (and were going nowhere). And most teams are guilty of this - they keep their core together out of blind belief this is all they can do. Now Calgary sort of lucked into this and I think their window closes quickly (three years tops) but their team got a heart transplant that it desperately needed. Without Gaudreau bailing on them and then Tkachuk not willing to sign, they would have rolled back the same core and got the same result. Honestly every GM needs to look at their core and decide sooner than later - "Is this working?". While I can't guarantee it wins a Cup I can see the Canucks needing to do something this dramatic. Honestly, I don't care who goes - just get the right return. And if it takes a few years for the change so what? It's not like this roster is going to win anything without change anyway.
  6. Being in Alberta I always hate the 8:30 starts. Makes for a later evening that I like. Sorry everyone, last nights game is my fault. I was tired after the second and needed to get to bed. The two quick goals to start the third were my fault as it allowed me to shut the game off.
  7. I have been on the fence with this management group. I did not jump on the boards and sing their praises when they were hired (I don't care who they are and what they have done - I want to see what they do for the Canucks). While I appreciate I have a fan's perspective so my ideas are not always NHL GM ideas but I was fully on board with moving a maximum value JT Miller and not re-signing him. The value of that trade - picks and prospects was critical to this teams future. And on the Boeser front, I get where they made the decision - do you let a 20 goal scorer walk for nothing? They re-signed him as asset management but in that instance I think Cap management should have taken precedent. Then signing Mikheyev? That's a head scratcher but I suspect without it ever being said officially that Kuzmenko and Mikheyev were a package deal. The sad reality is simply this - they took a Jim Benning team and doubled down on it. Not sure that is encouraging. Some speculate ownership meddling. Not sure that is true. Regardless, this new management group still does not have me singing their praises. Can they redeem themselves? I hope so. But so far this feels like Deja Vu. At this point, I really don't want to see this roster recover and save face. I don't want a 92 point season. I want a full acknowledgment that this team needs some serious tweaking. There are some great pieces in place but honestly, I don't care who goes and who stays. It's been 11 years since the 2011 Final and I can't see this team being competitive any time soon. Start the make over... I can cheer for that.
  8. Last nights game was fun... only gave up a 1 goal lead twice. That's a small victory. I see lots of issues with the roster. The D is the biggest and that has been an issue since Benning took over. The forward lines do not seem to click (at least not all 4). Team speed is a huge issue - this team gets eaten alive by faster teams so Buffalo should be fun tomorrow. This is a playoff bubble team at best. And the future is dependent on waiting on expiring contracts to hopefully sign a better player in their place. There are very few quality prospects coming. And unless GMPA can perform miracles, trades are very difficult to make with so many teams tight to the cap and good Right D being unicorns. This is a process to fix that is going to take time and patience. That said, the summer signings and the extension of Miller points to them pushing in their chips. The bad start to the season shows that this team is not really ready. Can the season turn around? Sure. I still say they are a 92 to 96 point team. But that just means they just make the playoffs or just miss. Not exactly promising for the now or the future. I will say though, this start is really disappointing. Part of me wishes they could just be bad. Trade away some of the positive return players for picks and prospects and see what happens. Focus on 2 to 5 years down the road (see Colorado). But I know none of that will happen. They will go on a run and all this will be forgotten. Then they will just miss the playoffs and we will say "so close but next season will be better". Repeat until the realization that this core did not succeed. (All of that is my perspective shared more out of feeling a little less positive after 5 disappointing games following 50 ish years of disappointing results).
  9. Been a Canucks fan since the 70's. I have watched a lot of bad Canucks teams. This is not a bad team (not a great team either). Now some may have been suggesting this team is an outside chance contender but I am not that optimistic. The start of last season I said they were middle of the pack - could make the playoffs/could miss. This season I said the same - could make it/could miss. My issue with the acquisition of Miller a few years ago was not Miller. It was the effect that he would have. The team is stuck in the middle. Not good enough to win, not bad enough to get high picks to make the team better. We are now reaping that reward. And that is why I was in favour of trading Miller this summer - the team needs to take a step or two backwards to step forward. Trades are not one sided and you have to give to get and by signing Miller they kept their best trade chip. They signed Boeser hoping he would reignite (and he still might). So the only trade chip left is Horvat. And personally, I have seen many a favourite player traded so I don't care if he goes. The cap is still a mess with the dollars spent on D being particularly inefficient (that is Myers and OEL). But I just don't see a team out there, with a good right D, that has a hole that Horvat fills. The first 3 games have been bad. But they are not going to go 0-82. I still say they are a 92 to 96 point team (finishing just in or out of the playoffs). Does that make me happy? Not really. I still say they are some similarities to Colorado - just remains to be seen if the new management can be as smart as Sakic was. I have no issue if the team has a crap year and drafts top 10. I have no issue if a popular player or 2 are traded out (as long as the return is worth it). I am not thinking this team is a contender. And given the issues that Benning left it will take a few years to get there. My bigger issue is with all the high priced fancy management hired I just don't see a change in direction. So far their moves have been "today" focused and I just don't agree that this is a "today" team. Time will tell and I hope I am wrong but this start and the obvious flaws are not encouraging.
  10. I was at the game. From a fan watching perspective (no benefit of replays). (And I told my wife at 3 nothing - worst lead in hockey...) Pettersson looked great. Other than the bad play leading to the short handed goal. Podkolzin looked great. Smart player. Never takes a shift off. Miller looked awful. Poor puck decisions. Poor positioning throughout the game. He got two points but he was hard to watch the rest of the game. I definitely noticed him for all the wrong reasons. Horvat looked disinterested. Not sure what else to say about him. Boeser - smart player, too slow. Garland handles the puck well, skates well but just did not make a difference. Hughes is trying to do too much. Schenn is actually a bad partner for him - forces Quinn to do too much against a better skating team like the Oilers. Pearson - he is tough to watch. Just seems to be off by a stride or two - almost in the right position but never quite there. Plays die on his stick. Hoglander - just can't finish. Made a few good defensive plays (which stood out to me). But poor passing decisions in offensive zone (especially on PP2). Kuzmenko played well. Not sure what he is yet. But he is not a liability on the ice. Lazar for his role and minutes, he looked good. Aman looked ok. Joshua looked overwhelmed. Schenn is too slow. Smart player but no speed. OEL looked ok. Stillman looked meh. Poolman is awful. Curious to see what happens when Mikheyev is back. Forward group just did not seem as engaged as I was hoping for. I would have thought after the first two goals that they would be fired up for more but it just seemed to stop. Great work by Pettersson, beautiful shot by Miller and then it just died. Line combos did not seem correct to me. I don't think Boeser and Pearson are great wingers for Miller and I don't think Garland is a great winger for Horvat. Hoglander - not sure what to say - good player but just does not seem to fit with system. 4th line (small sample size but) did not seem effective. Reffing was bad on both sides (at least consistent in the bad calls). But the missed call on Hughes was huge (should not be an excuse to lose the momentum and game). Power play and Penalty kill felt exactly like last year. I get it's game one but still, I expected better from both. McDavid and Draisaitl - they move the puck so well and that is tough to defend... but the first PK was just a mess when Hughes got hurt, Demko dropping the stick and getting scored on. It just seemed to not get better for any future PK. The power play was predictable. I know it will get goals through the season but the Oilers had it figured. Canucks cannot handle faster players. They make up for it by playing positionally sound 5v5 but it can cause breakdown issues in their own zone. Team speed is still an issue - Boeser, Schenn and Pearson really stood out as slow. The defense is still the Canucks weakest area. I was on board the trade Miller train because of the "give to get" perspective. Now that Miller is signed we know he is staying. But the Canucks still need to give to get. A forward needs to go to get a D. But given most teams are in tough with D that is not an easy trade to make (too many teams not enough good D available especially right side). Fun game to be at until Hughes got hurt... I could feel the change in the building after that goal went in. I have been to many Canucks/Oilers games - first game where other fans tried to pick a fight because I was wearing a Canucks jersey. (And yes the other guys were drunk - not sure how people can afford to get drunk at a hockey game). Just glad I drove into downtown and did not have to take the LRT home.
  11. Rathbone is waivers exempt still. One more season.
  12. I think Crouse has potential so I am curious to see as the talent improves around him how his game progresses. Arizona certainly needs to be able to find ways to retain their good young players. I don't think Crouse is worth 4.3 today but that contract could quickly become a bargain as the team improves. I really feel badly for the players in Arizona. I am still surprised the NHL has given the Arizona experiment so much time.
  13. Per Elliotte Friedman Lawson Crouse has re-signed for 5 years in Arizone. AAV of 4.3. It would seem Arizona is having to pay a bit of a premium to keep players. I would say that Crouse is certainly not a 4.3 a year player at the moment. Bad team in a crappy rink can't be very easy to attract players at the moment.
  14. Tried the simulator... 22 spins before the Canucks moved up. Odds are really bad at that spot. First spin - Vegas won it - that would be the most Canuck thing to have happen - even at 15 have to move down a spot. I posted in November and it was a sad state then. The past few months have been a lot of fun. Truly a fun season to watch (after Dec 5). Was really hoping they could come back against the odds and make the playoffs. I am excited to see what changes are made. Very much looking forward to next season.
  15. Maintaining the 92 point playoff mark, the Canucks need to go 17/11 the rest of the way. Still not impossible but odds are against them. The worst part is the next 11 games up to the deadline has 7 games against weaker competition (Ottawa, Montreal, Buffalo, New Jersey x2 in particular). While I appreciate management wanting to keep them together to see what can happen, the next 11 games could lead to a false conclusion. The 7 game stretch right after the trade deadline will be the true measurement. In December, it looked like their goose was cooked. The fact that they have slightly reduced the win percentage required over remaining games is surprising. Awesome they are still in the chase. Great to see what a coaching change could do for this roster. Certainly has made the Benning built team look a whole lot better and for that I must say that Benning did a much better job than I gave him credit for. I trust the new management group to keep their eye on the ultimate prize. I am curious to see what deals are made in the next 3 weeks. For example, I would assume Motte is either signed (or framework of deal done) or traded (cannot afford to let an asset leave for no return regardless of playoff chase). Curious to see what can be done on the cap space front. Curious to see if anything happens with Boeser, Miller, Horvat, Myers, etc. Playoff race and trade rumours! Fun times to be a fan!
  16. That link earlier in the thread was from a couple years back. DiPietro, Rathbone and maybe Lockwood seem to be the extent of higher end prospects. They just lost Gadjovich, MacEwen and Lind. The AHL Canucks are a bad team. Sure there are some that could come out of nowhere (players not signed yet) which would be fantastic but as of right now I do not see any difference makers on their way. The Hockey Writers have the Canucks prospect pool ranked at 20th in September 2021.
  17. I find Rutherford an interesting hire. I am not leaning one way or the other at the moment on him. We all have our own opinion as to the state of the team and what it will take to make the team a contender. If Rutherford comes in and does not mortgage the future (no trading picks) then I will be happier. I think some trades need to be made but I think those trades need to be focused on getting back picks and prospects. If Miller, Horvat, Pearson, Myers type players are moved out for high picks and targeted/specific prospects (think D and in particular right D) then I will believe in Rutherford's vision going forward. If he trades away the first with no regard for the future then I will not be supportive of the direction he is taking the team. I believe the team needs to take a step back before taking steps forward. This teams prospect pool is a puddle and there are no players coming that they can count on to out perform their entry level contract. At the moment, I believe there is hope. We will know pretty quickly if that hope is buoyed or crushed based on the first couple moves he makes.
  18. I am sure Jim, John, Travis and Nolan are all quality individuals. It is unfortunate that they have lost their jobs (but I am sure their contracts protect them financially). I wish them all the best for the future and I am sure they will get opportunities elsewhere (not necessarily same roles). 8 years in and nothing seems to have changed. Being last in the Pacific when the team was deemed to be better is not acceptable. The team has flaws. Other than Hughes and OEL, I would say the rest of the D needs to be reworked (not going to be an easy task). The forward group has some positives but if Lammikko, Dowling, Chiasson are on your roster that spells trouble. The prospect pool is more like a puddle. The AHL Canucks are a bad team as well. Not a lot of hope currently. My fear is the new GM will try to lever picks into roster players instead of turning roster players into picks. This is a 3 to 5 year fix (hopefully) and rushing it will just make it worse. The Avs and Oilers did it well. Looking at the Oilers now the fact they did not trade away first and second rounders is now paying dividends (Broberg, Bouchard, Lavoie and McLeod). Outside of some long shots the Canucks don't have any youth now ready to step in. Instead of an abundance of assets the Canucks have none. The focus really needs to be identifying who stays and then adding picks and prospects that start arriving over the next 3 to 5 seasons. I like Miller, Horvat, Boeser and Pearson but if they have value around the league, then they need to be traded. Some of the current roster will be on the team when it becomes competitive again but the valuable pieces that can get the right return need to be moved. Hoping Aquilini sees it that way and the new GM truly has the autonomy to see a real plan through. 3 to 5 years... that's the part that hurts - 8 years in and now it is another 3 to 5...
  19. The Aquilini's are cheap and will do their best to not have to pay double salaries. Expect a Green firing and a promotion of Shaw for the rest of this year. Benning stays and his tenure is dependent now on a playoff push as opposed to making the playoffs. If the team recovers and misses he stays - only a complete disaster gets him tossed. Hope I am wrong - I think it is time to replace the coach and GM. I still see the Canucks as the Oilers with Chiarelli - there is hope just need a real GM to fix it. All I hope is that Benning is not allowed to trade any more firsts. Benning has this year and next on his contract - he won't be renewed. And if he happens to trade away a Miller/Horvat/Boeser I just hope the return is decent. Frustrating time to be a fan (and this from someone that has been a fan since 76).
  20. Funny this popped up now. I was just doing the math on the wins required. Put the bar at 92 points (likely low) - the Canucks need 80 points in 66 games. While not impossible it is improbable. There is a reason why the teams that are out by the end of November rarely make the playoffs. The league is competitive and I actually am surprised at how much better the Pacific division has been. I really figured Calgary, Vancouver and LA would be competing for 3rd and 4th in the division. And here we are - LA and Anaheim are doing well. Edmonton is playing very well and Calgary is way better than expected. The Pacific is not a tire fire and that does not bode well for the Canucks making up ground. At this point there are 20 games left against the Pacific and there are about 22 games left against teams like Toronto, Tampa, Florida, Carolina, etc.. Based on that, I would not be placing a bet on the Canucks making the playoffs. They needed to be in the thick of the race now and not already in a hole. Go ahead and quote me to disagree but the reality is the math is not in their favour. Not impossible just improbable. Which is exactly what I said last season as the year rolled along. As of today they need a win percentage north of 60 just to get to 92 points. The issue is they have done nothing while performing at a win percentage of 37.5% to show me that is the anomaly.
  21. Take a look at the Canucks drafting on Hockey DB - that is some horrible draft history. It was a few years back and I don't have the article any longer, but as I recall all the Canucks had to do when their pick came up was take the highest point WHL forward still available and they would have out drafted themselves by over 1000 or so games. That is telling. I can't just point to one player or one draft. The Canucks have never won a Cup because they could never acquire the talent through the draft. Benning was supposed to change that and while he has been better than those before him, even the great draftsman misses - see 2016 draft and I won't be surprised to see 2020 and 2021 in that total miss category.
  22. I have never been a Benning fan but I will admit, while I did not like him trading away another first, I thought the team would improve with Dickenson, OEL and Garland. I will also say I figured the left side D was ok but the right was trash (not a fan of Myers, Hamonic or Poolman). The current reality is the mix of players is wrong, the coach can't get through any more and I think there has to be some sort of locker room issue (not saying this on the Corey Hirsch comments but on the Nate Schmidt in and then out). I do not trust Benning to right the ship. So to me, Green and Benning need to go - the sooner the better. I can't help but compare the Canucks to the Oilers under Chiarelli. Time for a new GM and new coach. The team has it's flaws but there are still some excellent pieces but it will take a few years to fix with the right GM.
  23. Overpays being made on D. Jones and Nurse are not worth those contracts.
  24. Dreger reporting a 4yr x $6 million deal for Hall to stay with Boston. Will include trade protection.
  25. Friedman reporting return is a 2022 2nd and 7th (St Louis' pick). (WRONG WAY AROUND.... edit - those picks are PLUS... Philly gets future considerations). Canucks better just hang on to their bad contracts!!
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