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About Scruffy05

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    Toronto, ON... Yeah, I know.
  1. Boeser yes. Horvat will probably be more like a very good 2nd or 3rd line center a'la Kesler or Bergeron. Incredibly valuable and very useful, but maybe not quite a first line player as his skill set does skew slightly more defensive.
  2. Built in Sedin chemistry. Solid, intelligent player who can be basically all things to all people. Term is a little long, but so it goes. Money is fair. I like this signing. We add another middle six forward and we are looking ok going into next year. I'm also extremely excited about our future and am pretty high on some of our later round draft picks this year (like Candella and McKenzie). As much as TSN and some analytic guys want a burn it to the studs rebuild, I don't believe that is always the way to go- Edmonton has struggled with that for years.
  3. All these guys Bennings signed today outside of Eriksson are basically lottery picks. Probably Utica depth but you never know, a 24 year old with the right tools could catch lightning in a bottle a'la Dale Wiese or Alex Burrows. 24 year old players that can perform in the AHL are good depth signings at the very least. I like all of these and have faith in Benning's eye.
  4. We have to be certain he can Handel it before we call him up
  5. Oh, and as for how to save for the down payment? Live cheap, save money, prioritize spending and other priorities. Even with all that, if you cannot afford a house? Well, then you cannot afford a house. Home ownership is not a right.
  6. I must respectfully disagree with you on your last point. Home prices and rents are very weakly correlated with a pretty significant phase delay as the market drivers for both are significantly different. Specifically in Vancouver proper the price-to-rent ratio is well over 30 and, in some places, well over 40. And the ratio only includes the purchase price of the house, not the cost of the capital (mortgage) or the insurance or the property taxes or the maintenance costs- none of which the renter pays. If you were to spin it out, at the current cap rate (related to the price-to-rent ratio), and associating ALL costs, after 25 year the rent comes out ahead in net worth (investing all monies not paid into an ETF and assuming historic average return rates and realizing the strong correlation between home prices and capital markets) by about 25-30%, and that is assuming there is no housing correction. *Source: Microsoft excel and about 5 minutes. Assumptions: - 3% Mortgage rate never rising (unlikely) - 10% down payment... it gets worse at 5% for the home buyer - squatting in the house, as every time you buy and sell incurs transfer fees
  7. If you are incapable of saving the measly minimum down payment percentage to buy a house, you probably shouldn't be buying that house. What happens when something breaks or wears out and you have nothing saved to fix or replace it?
  8. I fully agree with literaphile- Canadians are already seriously over extended and addicted to debt, the last thing we need is to make that easier for them. I am completely against less down and longer terms. I think mortgage insurance is largely fair but should look at more than just the amount of down payment.. I would like to see a reduction in the transfer taxes, the actual price of buying and selling a house. Also, I think mortgage penalties (like extra payments, early withdrawal) should be lowered. On the flip side there are strong arguments to be made that lending criteria around mortgages needs to be tightened. Basically I am for making the price of houses (and the cost of owning one) less sticky, but I really don't like the idea of feeding the great Canadian debt monster. A lot of this starts in school and when young, Canadian kids really aren't taught basic economic life skills like forming a realistic budget, filling out basic tax forms , the enormous cost and danger of excessive debt. The average Canadian is becoming less and less functionally financially literate.
  9. What I would like to see if all these bank analysts releasing their monthly forecasts also had to display their brier score for the last 5 or so years so we would know whether or not to listen to them. Even better is if they show stndard forecaster uncertainty (whether or not the forecaster is decisive or wishy washy- ie: this WILL happen or "meh, it's 50/50")
  10. This may be correct as it pertains to foreign investment, but foreign investment is only one input into the system and isn't even the largest input. As it stands, it may just be the tipping point driving the system up.
  11. Real Estate in Vancouver has turned hyperbolic lately. For the longest time ROI was roughly 6%... for 30 years or so. That is average in real estate terms, substandard vs most other asset classes and terrible once you calculate the costs associated with real estate. Most people forget the incredible expense that Real Estate is when they think of it as an investment. Transfer costs (land transfer tax, realtor fees, home inspections, property appraisals, lawyer fees) can be 5-12% of the price. Your first year or two of "growth" is eaten up by just the cost of buying and selling. If it's a new home include GST on there as well (the rebate brings this down to ~only~ 3.2% instead of 5%) Both those are one time fees, but fees that you have to clear on sale to make any money. On top of that is: Mortgage insurance: 2-3% of your mortgage, every year, unless you have over 20% down payment, and even then sometimes Mortgage rate: Your mileage will vary, but advertised rates are 2.5% and up depending on credit. You lose a further amount every year due to property taxes. Vancouver is low at 0.36%, Toronto is roughly twice that. Maintenance: again, mileage may vary, but honestly expect roughly 1% per year. Not every year, but eventually the roof will need to be replaced. All this is a long way of saying that for the average buyer your house has to go up by 8% per year just to clear inflation and at least a further 10% over the course that you own it just to cover the cost of having bought it in the first place then selling it afterwards. The less you borrow the better and if you are paying cash you may succeed, but at the current P-to-R ratio than in the short to medium long term, even at current house price ROI, it is a better investment to rent a similar house than to buy it, and that is assuming there is no market correction. Cap rates in Vancouver are starting to dip under 2%. The buyer will only start to outstrip the renter in net wealth come 30 years or so unless they can pay their mortgage off sooner which, at the current price to income ratio, is not very likely... and at then they would be stuck in a 30 year old house. Well, the foundation and frame would be 30 years old, everything else would have been replaced at least once at the expense of the homeowner, something a renter doesn't pay. If rents spike (they seem high, but compared to house prices they are REALLY low, especially for GTA condos) or if housing corrects then the math may swing back in favour of ownership but currently it is not in favour of getting into this market right now. Now if you want a house because it is your dream home and a place to live and you see yourself still in it in 30-35 years then go for it. If you see it as an investment, well, run the numbers. Run ALL the numbers.
  12. All options which only add supply without the associated demand (or have no effect on either)
  13. Latest report: Summary: - Canada as a whole is losing value. Only Vancouver and Toronto are gaining. - Supply in both cities is drying up and at all time lows - National home sales dropped 2.8% from April to May. - Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 9.6% compared to May 2015. - The number of newly listed homes fell 3.2% from April to May. - The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose 12.5% year-over-year in May. - The national average sale price climbed 13.2% in May from one year ago; net of Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 9.1% year-over-year. I think the dwindling supply in Vancouver points to strong foreign investment but a local base of home owners who are stuck. They could sell their house for the profit but then would have nowhere to go. Just because your house went up 13% doesn't mean anything, because every other house also went up 13% and you gain nothing. All this points to both Vancouver and Toronto having far surpassed their practical tops to the market (which all the fundamentals are screaming hard about) and now they are deep into a speculation fueled bubble. The only way to make money selling your house in Vancouver is to sell then move out of the city. If enough people did that it would spike local supply and could be the catalyst needed. Also, any significant downturn in foreign markets could very quickly dry up foreign investment, or worse, cause reliquidation which would kill the market. If interest rates rise (well, they aren't going down anything meaningful) then anybody currently stuck and near the top of their threshold will be forced to sell. Once enough people in that situation have to act, it could cause the market to swing back then. If supply gets too low, eventually foreign investment would just look elsewhere. Same if prices just get too high. There are significant number of possible tipping points. I think the current prices are precarious.
  14. It's brinksmanship. It'll pass. Walmart margins are so very tight though that this could honestly matter for them. Last I heard their average margin is about 2.5%. If visa is too close to that they would basically be taking it all. Visa will blink though, it would be too expensive not to.
  15. Of particular note is the age demographic nightmare that is China right now. Their 1960's youth bulge will be rolling over into retirement and old age shortly and they are so top heavy right now that it is starting to show major strains on all facets of their economy. Canada has a far less pronounced baby boomer bulge, but we also have a (much slower) declining workforce as more people are set for retirement in the next 10 years then will enter, unless we REALLY ramp up immigration. This is all too esoteric to make any real predictive statements on, but it is not an irrelevant factor.