underrated

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  1. Also, watching the Tkachuk vs Tkachuk battle of Alberta would be super exciting But overall with this idea, I think the much more realistic approach for Ottawa is to try to get that first overall pick via lottery or big trade, and hope Lafreniere ends up as McDavid 2.0. McDavid won't be traded. But if, theoretically, he was, I think it would be to a big US market team like the Rangers that could increase the franchise value by half a billion dollar by adding him.
  2. Thoughts? Haven't gotten any feedback from the actual post, just comments about Weber's injury and changes to the wording of the post haha
  3. I mentioned at the beginning of the post that I recognize Bergevin isn't willing to do a big trade, as it would cost him his job. But I was saying that personally I think the best thing for their franchise is to move on from this core, and start an aggressive rebuild. If he believes this team, if healthy, might just make the playoffs, then what's the point? This core will never win a cup, and they'd be far better to accept this now, then end up accepting it three years from now when Weber and Price are untradable.
  4. I just saw the report of his knee surgery. Yikes. Well, there goes this haha
  5. I know Montreal isn't willing to go into a rebuild, but personally I think they really need to before Price and Weber age even more and the contracts become untradeable. In contrast, I think the Oilers have the young core, and clearly need veteran leadership and talent to put the team into cup contender status over the next several years. They are the perfect trade partners. Canadiens Current Reality The Canadiens are 8 points out of a wild card spot, with a roster near the cap limit, no major contracts coming off the books and a roster largely based around veterans in their 30's who are likely to decline coming up. This combo means that the current iteration of the Canadiens is a failure, and won't win the cup during the Carey Price years. They don't have the cap flexibility to make a major addition or two, they don't have enough of a young core about to step up which could make them cup contenders. They are stuck in mediocrity. They won't rebuild because it would cost Bergevin his job, but I really think they need to blow this up now while they can still get value in return for guys like Price and Weber. Furthermore, while it's a long-shot, I think the Canadiens should poise themselves to be in as good a place as possible to go all-in for Lafreniere. He would be the cornerstone of the franchise. Tanking the rest of this year, and adding several assets for a potential trade, would give them a far better shot at getting him. It's a way better approach then finishing just out of the playoffs, then riding out the next few years with these veterans, then starting a rebuild at that time. Still unlikely that they win the lottery, or that another team will trade Lafreniere, but if I were Bergevin, I'd do everything possible to give myself a shot at him. Oilers Current Reality The Oilers are in a very different place. They've got the young talented core, and need to add a couple key veterans to the lineup to help show the team how to be winners. They are right in the thick of the packed Pacific Division race. Right now, even with two of the top five young players in the league, they are not cup favourites, but in a pack of above-average teams. They've had a revolving door at the goalie position for years, and need stability there. They've got several good (but not elite) fairly young defenders who could really use the guidance and mentorship of one's the best veteran d-men in the league over the past ten years. The difficulty is working this around the cap, but I think it can be done. Trade Idea To Edmonton: Shea Weber (7.85m), Carey Price (10.5m), Kovalchuk (.7m) = 19.05million - then Montreal keeps $1.5mil of Price, so $17.55 million overall To Montreal: Nugent-Hopkins (6m), James Neal (5.75m), Mikko Koskinen (4.5m) Kailer Yamamoto (.9m), Evan Bouchard, Edm 2020 1st round pick, Edm 2021 2nd round pick =17.15million Potentially also add Tatar (4.8) for Russell (4), a 2nd round pick and maybe a prospect. Some of these pieces could be exchanged for others depending on team preferences. For example Neal's contract could be swapped out for Russell's and Gagner's if Montreal doesn't want Neal's contract or Edmonton wants to keep a productive forward. Or if Montreal really likes Ethan Bear more than Evan Bouchard, then they could be switched. Reasoning For Montreal In one big move, the Canadiens move on from an era that was starting to age and was no where near the cup, and at the same time brings back lots of pieces to get fans excited about the future potential. For two veterans on huge contracts (plus the quick sign and trade of Kovalchuk), the Habs get back Nugent-Hopkins as a top 6 forward the same age as their core guys, a potential stud prospect d-man in Bouchard, a good young forward in Yamamoto, a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, and two veterans to fill roster spots. The core of the team for the present is all around 24-27 years old with guys like Domi, Nugent-Hopkins, Gallagher, Drouin, Danault. They also all of a sudden have a huge pool of prospects and picks with Kotkaniemi, Caulfield, Bear, Yamamoto, Suzuki, Mete, Poehling as well as a first round pick that will improve if they lose down the stretch plus a mid first round pick of Edmonton. Montreal should build around the mid-20's guys so that the real young guys still have talent leading the way, and by the time the young guys are entering their prime, the guys like Domi and Drouin will be the veterans on the team. As mentioned before, I then think the Habs should go absolutely all-in to try to get Lafreniere, even if it's a super steep price. Caulfield, Bouchard, Montreal & Edmonton's first, and maybe another first. Huge price, but he would be the franchise cornerstone for the next 20 years. If you pull this off (very hard to do, but everything has a price), I think the fans immediately are willing to move on from the Price era, and be excited for the future. Reasoning for Edmonton With young studs like McDavid and Draisaitl, as well as some good d-men about to enter their prime like Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear the Oilers need to turn a corner and really go for it. This deal addresses two main needs. First, in goal, with one of the best 'keepers in the game. Second, a true #1 stud defenseman, who also can be a great mentor to the younger guys. The top four of Kelfbom-Larsson and Nurse-Weber (plus Ethan Bear!) would be locked in for years to come. The current issue for the Oilers is depth up front, and this deal doesn't specifically address that (unless the deal expands to include Tatar) so they may want to do another deal. However they add Kovalchuk for the rest of the year on a cheap deal, lose Neal's contract (even though he's a decently productive forward), and get the two best players in the trade. In my opinion, this roster is much more likely to compete for a cup over the next four years. Overall I'd be interested to hear your constructive feedback. -If you were Bergevin, do you think you'd try to trade Weber and Price now, or ride it out a couple more years? -If you were the Oilers, would you be willing to give up these younger assets for Price and Weber, knowing that they could be bad contracts in 4-6 years? -Removing the players added for contract and roster purposes (Koskinen, Neal), do you think the value is fair to trade Price (with $1.5m retained), Weber and Kovalchuk for Nugent Hopkins, Yamamoto, Bouchard, 2020 1st round pick and 2021 2nd round pick?
  6. It's the 21-22 year that will be quite tight. Obviously there are tons of factors of who we re-sign, at what price they sign, if we sign any free agents, who Seattle selects, who develops, etc but let's take a stab at our current roster dynamics to see how much space we have. Summer 2020 After this season Markstrom and Tanev's deals are up. Hard to know what they will get, but I could see us re-signing Markstrom for $6 mil for 3 years (if he asks for more, you let him walk and go with Demko) and Tanev for $5.5 mil for 2 years. Stecher, Schaller, Virtanen, Gaudette and Leivo also have deals ending. It's not like we couldn't survive without them, but I could definitely see us re-signing Gaudette signing for around $3mil/year, Virtanen and Stecher both for around $3.5mil. Summer 2021 Assuming no trades, for the 20-21 season we will still have Myers, Eriksson, Bo, Brock, JT, Beagle, Roussel, Ferland signed for another year (combined $38.125). IF Markstrom, Tanev, Gaudette, Stecher and Virtanen sign for around the numbers I suggested it would be an extra $21.5 for a total of $58.125. UFA's coming off the cap is Sutter ($4.375m), Pearson ($3.75m), Edler ($6m), Benn ($2m), Baertschi ($2.291). Let's say we re-sign Edler for one or two more years at $4 million, as he'll be 35 at this point. RFA's are Petterson, Hughes, Demko. Let's say Petterson gets $11mil long-term and Hughes $7 mil, Demko $3 mil both on bridge deals. That's $20mil. $58.125 + $4 (Edler) + $20 (RFA's) + $3.033 (Luongo recapture) = ~$85.158 for 2 goalies, 5 defenseman, 10 forwards. Let's say we fill the remaining four spots with young players on cheap contracts (Podkolzin, Lind, etc), our cap is likely up around $89-90 million for the 2021-2022 season. Current NHL salary cap is $81.5 mil. Might go up a couple mil in the next couple years. Let's say $84 million. We'd have to cut $6+million (probably more like $8 million) to make it work, and we can't sign any free agent. So we'd have to part with the final year of Eriksson, and maybe Ferland will be on IR, so that would make it work, although we'd have to fill their roster spots with two new salaries. The following year we will get a little space back with Eriksson, Beagle and Roussel off the books, plus maybe Edler, Tanev and Markstrom's deals would be done. So overall, I think we are in a manageable situation IF we don't overpay to re-sign our free agents, we don't sign any other free agents, and we make a deal or two in 2021 to get rid of some contracts like Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Ferland (or LTIR). That way we can JUST make it work to fit Demko, Petterson and Hughes, just don't expect us to add any other significant pieces.
  7. As everybody has mentioned, there's zero chance the Leafs trade one of the best young forwards in the league for a 30 year old defenseman with an $11 million dollar contract. That's like asking us to trade Petterson in two years for Doughty. However I think the idea of the Leafs going for Doughty makes a lot of sense. The main risk for the Leafs is having so much high end talent (and cap hit) that they can't fill out the roster. Matthews $11.634, Tavares $11, Marner $10.893, Nylander $6.962. Man should they be thankful Rielly has a couple more years left at $5 mil. Plus Anderson has another year at $5mil. I actually think there are a lot of potential scenario's that could work between these two teams. A big deal could make a much quicker turnaround for the Kings, plus give the Leafs the veteran help they need to make a true run in the playoffs. Toronto has quite a few pieces, and the Kings want to rebuild. I think the Kings would have to retain some cap hit because the Leafs simple can't have over $44 million tied up for four players long term, especially when Rielly needs a new contract. As was suggested, Nylander is probably a key piece going back to the Kings. He's young, talented (46 points in 51 games this season), and also has a big contract. Overall, I think the base of the deal would be Nylander. Then another addition of Kerfoot, Kapanen or Johnsson for cap hit reasons and as a solid, fairly young player. Then one of the two young Leaf prospect defenseman of Sandin or Liljegrin. Kings retain cap hit (likely $3 mil). Maybe expand the deal a little with adding Toffoli as a rental for a draft pick. Substantially helps the Leafs going forward with an anchor veteran cup-winning defenseman. The Kings are in shambles as a terrible team with lots of veterans but this deal would get them three young assets and a good start to a rebuild. Then they just need to deal Kopitar next as a second big rebuild trade.
  8. It's an interesting idea @Nuxfanabroad, well done. I think I agree with @qwijibo that it seems a bit too good for Vancouver. It doesn't really make sense for Ottawa to give up on White after half a season of struggling, when they clearly saw a lot of promise in him. Worst case scenario they trade him a year from now if he really keeps going downhill. It also looks like bad optics for an already frustrated Ottawa fanbase. Due to this, I think if a deal like this was a possibility, it would be us adding the draft pick rather than Ottawa. After the July 1 signing bonus is paid to Eriksson, I could see a package of Eriksson, Baertschi and a 2nd for White. The Sens could pitch it to the fans that they're getting a good draft pick and two roster players (even though it's clearly a cap dump by the Canucks). Eriksson and Baertschi likely would both play for the Sens, and they don't recoup their first they spent on White, but a 2nd isn't bad. The Canucks then give White a shot to thrive in Vancouver, but buy him out before the deadline if absolutely necessary.
  9. I complete agree. The ultimate goal is to win the cup, not just to be competitive. If you end a rebuild early, with a shortsighted desire to make the playoffs now, which likely still won't happen, then the major risk is that you don't acquire enough young assets to truly be elite when we are competing for the cup. That extra player or two on a rookie contract can make all the difference in a few years. Aquilini needed to be patient for one more year, in my opinion, and then we could start turning the corner. This upcoming season the Canucks could let our young players develop more, get one more top draft pick, and use our cap space to get assets (like Marleau, Callahan, Clarkson on short term deals). If we sign a guy like Myers, it will be using our cap space on a player that won't be the right age to compete with our core, puts us in a difficult spot with the expansion draft, and doesn't leave us flexibility when we need to sign a top free agent in a couple years. The ultimate goal is to win the cup. I guess Benning thinks the core we have now is enough to do that, but I think we need to add a couple more young pieces, and leave our cap space for a few years from now rather than signing a guy like Myers.
  10. I would have been really happy with Miller and a 1st for Tanev (50% retained). But sadly Benning's not that good of a negotiator
  11. I hear what you're saying about acquiring a top player but a few key things to consider. There are probably less than a handful of acquisitions this offseason that are exciting enough to get fans to buy tickets based on them adding to the roster. Karlsson re-signed, so that's not an option. Panarin would fit that category. Maybe Duchene but he doesn't really fit our biggest need. I don't think guys like Tyler Myers would really make a difference to ticket sales. So it's Panarin or bust. And Panarin isn't going to be $7 million/season, even if he would sign here, which is unlikely. He'd be over $10 million/year likely. Second, acquiring a guy like Clarkson who has insurance on his contract wouldn't actually cost more money. Some other players would cost money, and more than they're worth, but at the same time could still be contributors to the team in the meantime. Taking on Lucic is mostly a dud, but a guy like Marleau, Perreault or Neal could still add value short term. Third, you would hope the owner has a bit of delayed gratification and foresight during a rebuild. If the Canucks rebuild proves successful, there could be many years of deep playoff runs. That pays off big-time for an owner. I can't guarantee that making a trade using cap space would bring that added piece or two we need, but it sure does help a lot. I hear your point that if I was an owner, I wouldn't necessarily jump at the chance to pay a player $5-10 million over a couple years just because it could add an asset or two that may or may not help the rebuild long-term. I don't know how much the Canucks make or lose right now, which would be a factor. But an NHL owner is clearly invested in the success of a franchise more than anyone else, and some short term pain could go a long way, especially if the team is still making money during these down years.
  12. It has been mention on these boards how we'd love to see the Aquilini's willing to spend the cap in order to get us more future assets. I think Benning should be aggressive with this, and sell Francesco on the idea, promising how it will pay off in the long-run. I just want to throw out a few ideas of how we can do this. WHO NEEDS TO CREATE CAP SPACE? There are several teams who need to create cap space, and have some dead weight on their rosters. Benning should be reaching out to each team to see what asset he can acquire for taking a bad contract. Potentially Benning also offers some more affordable player as part of the deal in return, like Tanev or Sutter with 50% retained, or Hutton, Leivo or Goldobin. The important thing, in my opinion, is to try to only take on players who have 1-2 years left on their contract. We don't need the cap space for the next couple years, but after that we will be re-signing young players, potentially trying to sign a free agent, as well as likely dealing with a Luongo recapture penalty (on that note, we're better off if Luongo retires sooner rather than later unless he will play three more years which is unlikely). If we take on a player with 3+ years, I think we need to receive far more value back in return. Here is a list of the players who would likely be traded along with an asset by a team needing cap space. Some teams, like Ottawa or LA are rebuilding and likely wouldn't give up assets for contracts but I included the players anyways. 1-2 Years Remaining On Contract: David Clarkson (LTIR), Patrick Marleau, Ryan Callahan, Matthieu Perreault, Andrej Sekera, Ilya Kovalchuk, Marion Gaborik 3+ Years Remaining On Contract: Milan Lucic, James Neal, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, Ryan Kesler, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Seabrook, Bryan Little, Bobby Ryan I'd like to see a deal like Andrej Sekera and a 2nd round pick (38th overall) for Goldobin JAMES NEAL? ONLY FOR THE PRIZE OF RASMUS ANDERSSON Offer to take James Neal from Calgary ONLY if they include Rasmus Andersson. If not, then don't take Neal. I wouldn't even take on Neal for the 26th overall pick in this draft. The trouble with Neal is that he has four years left on the deal, which is far longer than we want but he may actually be an effective veteran for us for the next couple years, plus get a good young right hand shot defenseman then likely try to trade Neal (or buy him out) in 2-3 years. USING SALARY CAP SPACE TO FACILITATE A SUBBAN TRADE WITH A THIRD TEAM There has been a lot of talk about a PK Subban trade this offseason. I definitely do NOT think the Canucks should go for him, however I think that many teams looking to trade for him may not have $9 million of cap space. This is where the Canucks could use their cap space and take on a contract and draft pick from the team that Subban is going to. The key would be for us to only take deals that have two or less years on them, as we will need that cap space in the future. For example, if Subban was traded to Toronto, we could take Marleau and/or Zaitsev, along with a sweetener in a deal so that the Leafs open up cap space. Or if he went to the Oilers we could take back Sekera or Gagner (lol), but not Lucic, along with a pick. Or if he was traded to Boston, we could take on Backes + extra value. TRADE WITH VEGAS Similar trades have been suggested before on these boards, but this one is worth repeating, IMO: To Vegas: Tanev (50% retained) To Vancouver: Colin Miller, David Clarkson (insured contract, on LTIR), 2nd round pick Vegas gets a veteran, playoff proven right hand defenseman at a great cap hit in Tanev at $2.2 million, while sending out $3.875 million (Miller) and $5.25 million (Clarkson) for cap purposes. Clarkson's contract is insured, so it doesn't cost the Aquilini's more actual money. The Canucks get a younger, healthier right hand d-man, a good second pairing guy, and a 2nd round pick in exchange for using our cap space that we don't need.
  13. Agreed. CDC freaks out if you ever suggest trading valuable assets, but also says that we shouldn't take on bad contracts. That's why the typical Raymond, Ballard and a 3rd proposals are suggested. If I was Benning, I'd definitely approach ownership to see if we could spend up to the cap for the next two years in order to get extra prospects. The key piece if I was Benning is that I'd avoid any bad contracts that are longer than two more years. So no Lucic. It's long-term that will hurt us, when we need to start re-signing young players, and want to sign free agents, and likely have a Luongo recapture penalty. It also gives us flexibility with the Seattle expansion draft rather than being stuck keeping guys like Lucic. A trade like Clarkson makes sense if we get value along with them.
  14. That would be a great trade. Get a younger RH defenseman and upgrade draft picks by taking on a contract. Is Clarkson insured? If so, it wouldn't even cost us money, just cap space. Seems like a win all the way around, as long as Vegas likes Tanev, and if Tanev can stay healthy.
  15. He had a down year, for sure. But he's 23 years old, has three straight 20 goal seasons, and had over 60 points in two seasons. I think the reason they're wanting to dump him is more to do with Myers, Connor and Laine needing to re-sign. I'd definitely try to get him if he's available.