Major Canucks Fan

This is some good research there. I do agree that the older ones usually don't pan out as much as they may be on top of their development curves. But the sample size for the 23-24 year olds are fairly small. I would compare rafferty to a shultz in the best case btw. That is exactly who I was expecting him to be.

That's some mighty fine research you have done there. Just curious, can you please do one on rookie AHL defenceman that ended up say in the top 5 or top 10 in defence scoring in their rookie seasons in the ahl? And how they went on to do in the NHL? Just a hunch that the list might look a bit more impressive.

Sorry, the defender was in front of the net?????? He was still behind the net when the goal went in. Please watch it again and tell me when in the sequence was the defender ever in front of the net. He got deked out behind the net, was still fishing for the puck behind the net. If where that defender is located is defined as "in front of the net" god help everyone when we talk about clearing the house in front of the net cause we sure ain't talking about where he was. Tell me objectively when that defender was even above the goalline? Actually I tracked this again and the defender did not at any time through the entire sequence even cross above the goalline to the front of the net. He was definitively below the goalline the entire sequence.

People miss the point about this kid. It's not the lacrosse goal, it's what he did before the goal. Here was a 1 on 1 battle that he had a 50/50 chance at the beginning. He eludes the defender that was all over him, banks the puck to himself. The defender was still in the vicinity (note all the other lacrosse goals whereby the player is all by himself behind the net, this one is different as he had a defender on him when he did it). The kid has the mindset to actually try this. It's like the avalanche commentors on Petersson's between the legs move last year: "How do you even think of that?". He is a in one on one battle behind the net and has the awareness to pull this off, that's the amazing part.

This guy is our version of Drake Batherson who was drafted at 19. Look how he turned out.

Guys, look at the goal scoring rate per game in the last two years in the nhl and look up boeser on that list. Then look up how much the other guys get paid. Also look like how many centers get the amount of points per game that konecny get. They aren't even close. For those who say they are close, think about it this way. Would you trade boeser for konecny and a 1st? I sure wouldn't, guys who can score 40 goals in a year in the NHL I can count on two hands.

So here is another post about Juolevi. I am not ready to say that he is the next canucks savior after watching one game of him live against the calgary ahl team but I will say this. In the return in the game against Calgary we could have really used him. Think about the most important function of a defender. The idea is simple, get the puck up to the forwards as efficiently as you can, try to minimize dangerous chances against you in high scoring areas, and dont' make a lot of mistakes turning the puck over because they get magnified. If you are to ask what advanced stats measure it is those three things essentially for a defenceman that drives play for his team. If you accomplish all three then you are a decent defenceman in the NHL. I gurantee you all NHL coaches will agree on this point. Don't believe me, see Chris Tanev. I scouted Tanev when he came up at rookie camp and that was the thing that struck me. He was incredibly efficient on this particular play, something I call escapability. In puck retrieval situations, if he is the first guy going back into the zone with a forechecker on him, how many times does the puck escape the zone. The measure of a great d man is on that one play actually. If you have a d man that when someone is on his ass and he manages to somehow get that puck out, preferably on a forward's stick more times than not, that is an insanely valuable defenceman. What I saw from a lot of nucks dman which included such board favorites as ashton sautner was that he wasn't great at that one particular play. Sure he can knock people down in meaningless positions. And sure he looks like he is imposing his "will" on the game but those are meaningless as they don't drive play. The way I count it is simple, if he caused a zone exit how many other times did he cause the puck to stay in the zone because he couldn't "escape". That ratio is super important. In many instances I was thinking he was better off just letting the other guy overplay the forecheck and tip the puck to his partner. Raw eyes overrate body to body contact. Remember it is far easier to overcome with the stick check than body because the stick is frankly longer. See Lidstrom if you don't believe me. Now there are deficiencies in Juolevi's game, he needs to be faster is one of my own observations. Not that much faster but just a step. He looks like he has closed the gap so that the guy can't turnstile him like they used to do but if he just gets one step faster he might be able to strip the puck. And of course as I mentioned he needs to be stronger. The other area that he could use some work is to get his shot through but I am sure that will come so I wouldn't worry about it.

I don't know what everyone here is whining about and I usually don't post but had to chime in. I was actually at the game last night and watched Juolevi closely. So he made about 25 to 30 plays total the entire game. I count a play this way: 1. Puck retrieval. Getting back to the puck and making a decision on where it goes. 2. Pass 3. Breaking up plays, interceptions, takeaways 4. Battle along the boards 5. Pressure contain on odd man rushes. The way you scout a player is this. 2 simple questions: 1. Did he make the best available decision given all information available to him. 2. Is he able to physically execute the play given the decision he made. So out of 25 to 30 plays, he probably made the absolute best choice about 80% of the time. And that is by far the best out of all of our d man last night. It wasn't even close. I watched the other d man and juolevi made the right reads far better than any defenceman. This included edler. Because sometimes when I was watching the other d man play I would ask what in the world were they thinking? Except Juolevi. Now, he did make a couple of blunders but nothing significant. The other 5 guys I can't say the same. And the blunders were more associated with 2. physical ability than 1. So where does he need to improve on? He needs to be stronger and faster is the issue. His reads are impeccable but sometimes he isn't able to execute it. For example, there was a play whereby his physical positioning of stick and body was perfect to separate guy from puck but he couldn't do it because he wasn't strong enough. But I think that part will come. Now, here are things that you miss when you are not watching live. He was one of the few defenceman who understood sometimes the best play was to let a puck go by you to the other guy. He used small touch passes to diffuse hard situations. His stick positioning was great. On odd man rushes he was able to defend two guys at once and diffuse the situation whereas our other guys would just leave guys wide open (see just about every dman other than him). Also notice the number of odd man rushes that came against the canucks, very few came while he was on the ice. Lastly, on two passes to gudbranson he made the same pass but at two different speeds. That is impressive. One he zipped because he correctly calculated the interception distance and on another he feathered because he knew it would help gudbranson with his shot. All in all a very good game. Btw, if you didn't think he had a good game, look at the stats. How many goals was he on the ice against? He somehow made gudbranson look good which was actually really impressive cause every time gudbranson handled the puck the entire stadium could see that it was like he was handling a live grenade.

I think Mittelstadt will translate. His floor is basically Kyle Wellwood. He most likely will become a Chris Drury type of player depending on his compete level. Ceiling is a Forsberg light if he can develop some explosiveness and strength to his game. Again, if he gets as strong as Forsberg basically the puck will stick to him.

I think everyone is worried too much about him. I watched every minute of that highlight film and here is a few tidbits of what I noticed about him and anderson. I don't think stats matter at all in a tournament like this or even at this age. Its the finite details that can tell you the difference between a future stud and a bust. 1. Lias Anderson is a puck hound. Very hard on the puck and is far more physically mature. Hence he will look better. He can survive contact right now hence he can make plays carrying the puck. However, I question if he knows where he is going with it. It seems like he wants to carry it into space but doesn't have a plan of what to do with it in that space. On some particular plays his choice of where he is going is brutal. It's like saying, I can carry it somewhere and hang onto it but I won't be any closer to my goal than I was before. I think he has great value but will certainly need a playmaking centre to make him better. Without the puck I thought his reads were much better. But that could also be because he is playing with some decent playmakers. 2. If you watch Petterson closely, you will notice something interesting. He has a plan of what he wants to do. He may not accomplish is all the time because, well, unlike Anderson, he can't survive contact and that has been well documented here. It reminds me a lot of the sedins in their early days. It seems like they always had a plan but was too weak to survive contact early to accomplish it. Hence we always thought they were just cycling it aimlessly. 3. Petterson's game is very efficient. He will try plays and not waste time with them. He may lose the puck but that is because the plays will get him much closer to the end goal than just aimlessly carrying it. 4. He understands the idea of time, space and angles. I can't stress this enough. When Steve Nash was asked why do you play soccer and how does it affect your basketball game he answered simply that it was about angles. If you watch him, he is not unlike most play making centres who like to draw defenders close to him. Reminds me a lot of how Henrik Sedin would hang onto the puck, even back peddle a bit to draw someone closer to him, then release it. He shifts players around him to create lanes to get the puck through, very intelligent at such an early age. Unlike Sedin, he actually can shoot, so defenders can't just leave him be off of the side wall. 5. I question a bit his compete level because well, he really isn't trying too hard out there right now. But again, I suspect that he picks his spots on plays that have a high end reward and tries much harder on those. 6. Liligren looked decent I thought. He might become the Cam Fowler of this year's draft. Very smooth and can transition the puck quickly. I haven't seen a shift by shift breakdown of Makar but I would imagine that there isn't that much difference between the two. d In conclusion, having watched the shift by shift videos of some of the top drafted prospects I have to say you have to watch the game really closely to evaluate these players. Personally my pick was mittelstadt who reminded me a bit of a light weight version of Forsberg because I questioned Glass's puck handling as a center. But having watched Petterson closely I can see why they drafted him. There is a good reason why this guy put up such good numbers in a league with men while being at 160 pounds. I mean this is a junior tournament and he gets knocked around think about what happens when he plays against men. But his vision and hockey sense are off the charts. I would say he is like a Henrik Sedin but take away a bit of passing skill and add some skating and shooting ability. He will be elite one day when he can survive contact and now can actually accomplish some of the plays he planned because he could hang onto the puck a bit longer. We have seen it before with the Sedins.