baumerman77

I can't believe it took this long. Exciting.

Today is a good day.

To be honest, I am surprised. You fundamentally do not understand PDO. I suggest you really take some time to understand it. And by the way, the smaller the sample size in PDO the more its influence by luck (that's why it regresses over larger sample sizes). That's all I got to say. Good chat though.

Well let's try to figure this out. Gudbranson's career PDO is 98.6 however this year his PDO is 101.6 (which is 3rd highest on the team, 2nd highest on defense). As PDO is more of a proxy for luck than skill, it suggests that Gudbranson, in this respect, is having a "luckier" season. However, and please correct me if I am wrong, your posts seem to indicate that you think he isn't having a lucky season and that his PDO is more skill driven than luck driven?

That's what I thought- you don't understand PDO.

Then can you explain why you used Gudbranson's high PDO this season as a reason to support that he is a good defenseman?

OK. Then I guess you don't understand PDO. No need to respond, I understand you more than I wish did.

OK you must've made a typo then. I'm just looking out for ya.

OK. I don't think you understand PDO.

Why are you using high PDO to support him?

Brandon Reid? He was passed over his first draft eligible season and went in the 7th round after that. I believe he played in the WJC the year he was drafted (18 year old) and the year after.

The numbers try to capture what would be the equivalent production in the NHL. So based on the the .58 figure quoted above. Pettersson so far would have 28 points (SHL) x .58 = 16.24 NHL points in 21 NHL games. It should be noted that NHLe tends to improve in accuracy greatly over larger sample sizes. So it might be better to wait until the end of the SHL season to really look at it. At that point more accurate translation factors should also be available. I would say the value in NHLe isn't its able to predict NHL production but rather it does a decent job in comparing prospects from across non-NHL leagues. It's a decent tool to look at when considering draft prospects.

Are you referring to NHL equivalency points? Rob Vollman had these numbers at the end of last year: Updated translation factors .74 KHL .58 SHL .47 AHL .43 SM-Liiga, Swiss NLA, NCHC .38 H-East .33 Big 10 .30 OHL .29 WHL .25 QMJHL .23 ECAC Take it for what its worth. They change and update all the time.

Making the best of a bad situation. Hopefully we can flip him on deadline for a pick.

Haven't you noticed that about 7 years ago heavyweight enforcers started to disappear from the NHL and over the last 3 years middle weight "enforcers" have followed suit? Haven't you noticed that slow big tough stay at home defenders are less prevalent now? Haven't you noticed that teams' 3rd and 4th liners are starting to have skilled guys rather than grinders and checkers? Almost every team in the NHL knows that skill trumps toughness in today's NHL (and it's not going back). It started with the salary cap which forced teams to really evaluate whether or not those "tough" players were worth their money and now the analytics movement is putting the nail in the coffin for many of those types of players. Every time I hear "team toughness" I cringe because it is the last thing we should be focusing on if we want to win. I know some people love big hits and fights and scrums and that's fine, but what I really care about is winning and to do that we should be focusing on skill. And skill in today's game is comprised of speed, vision, hockey IQ, puck-handling, passing not hitting, fighting, overpowering as it was 20 years ago.

Sadly enough I believe there is a sizable amount of CDC members who wouldn't.

If somehow the opportunity arose today to trade Virtanen straight across for Nylander would you do it?

Who's interested in Benning taking the 18 year old 5'7" 139 pound Russian - Artyom Manukyan - with a pick in the later rounds? No doubt he is an incredibly long shot to make the NHL, but I'd rather take a shot with him in a late round than another CHL grinder - if for nothing else but the entertainment factor.

Double Post*

I feel different. For the first time in a while, I don't have a strong preference (perhaps that will change over the next several weeks) for one or two prospects at our spot. I think the draft will be extremely entertaining because of the unknown element. As far as CDC getting upset at the pick, it seems like normally there is more of a 'rally around the prospect' mentality rather than anger - save for a few vocal members. I think the closeness in quality this year will amplify CDC support of the pick (or at least make some of nervously anticipate his development), unless Benning picks Rasmussen and then everyone will go crazy.

I don't really think any prospects are "boom or busts" for the record. The thing that concerns me the most and makes him a risky pick for me isn't the comparables you listed but rather the lack of comparables from Extraliga. Also, I wouldn't necessarily agree that those who played in the Czech U20 league in their draft year played there because they weren't good enough to play in Extraliga. I understand his appeal, however from what I have seen of his play and his numbers I would rather go another direction at 5.

OK. I'm still not really sure what this has to do with Horvat. Yes, I get skeptical when players jump drastically increase their stock because of tournaments.

Yes I like Horvat. Are you trying to make an equivalency between him and Necas? If so can you explain your reasoning a bit more?

Haha yea that doesn't make sense. I corrected it.

I'm always skeptical when someone shoots up the rankings because of how they do in a tournament (small sample size). Apart from that I don't think his performance in the Extraliga was that impressive - very similar to Spacek a couple years back who I also believe was ranked around 5 for international skaters in the 2015 draft. Not many players have gone on to success in the NHL after playing their draft year in Extraliga. Hertl was one of them who has had NHL success but his numbers were much better than Necas and his highlight reel was amazing. I've seen some of Necas highlight videos (in addition to international play) and nothing has really wowed me. He also played a lot with Martin Erat who is one of the best players in the league. I'm sure he has a high ceiling and could very well end up being a great pick (as with a lot of guys in the top 12) but I believe there are much better prospects at 5 and less risky picks with similar upside in the top 10.