Matt_T83

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About Matt_T83

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  1. There are no 'proper methods'. However, I'm doing a lot of leave half out models where I take the draft years from say 2000-2011 and pick even numbered years to build models on. I'll rank prospects in all draft years based on how they turned out. Then I look at all possible different combinations and weights of aggregate statistics, picking the best settings that recapitulate the observed order. Then I apply that combination/weighting of aggregate statistics to the odd year drafts and see how well I predict those rankings. If you don't do that, you risk overfitting your model to the data. The metrics you can use are almost endless. And because these are prospects, you need to look at development factors as well. How good were the players line mates? We all know that Jonathan Drouin was boosted playing with MacKinnon in Junior. Drouin has had an 'okay' year with the Lightning, but he's far from living up to a top 5 1st round draft pick. How good is a goalie if he's playing in front of the best defense in the CHL? What about a goalie playing in front of the worst defense in the CHL? Teasing apart the players individual contributions and development trojectories are almost more important than looking at their actual performance by any standard metrics. I'm trying to make predictions right now on current drafts, and see how they work out. We'll see..
  2. They do have similar numbers, but there's other things to consider. For example, high calibre centers are just worth more than high calibre LW. One of the biggest factors NHL teams are looking for now is size down the middle. Vilardi has the size down the middle. He could easily be a #1 or #2 center on an NHL team. To me the only question are the prices: how much would it cost to acquire an extra first round pick to draft him? I agree that Jason Roberston is undervalued being outside the top 30. I'd put him in the top 20 easily. However, another team will pick him in the first round I'm sure. We won't get him at #33-34.
  3. Why do you think I'm wrong, out of curiosity? I have a PhD and I'm working on statistical models for the NHL draft, and late bloomers have a much better chance of transitioning to the NHL.
  4. My guess is we already draft 5th, and Middlestadt is ranked 5th overall. We are currently 4th last in the league, and will probably finish around #3-4 worst record. Knowing how the NHL hates the Canucks, one or two teams will leapfrog us and we'll draft 5th overall.
  5. The reason I suggest Vilardi is the price will lower. The prices for the #1-2 spots will be too high. I think we could get the #4 overall spot cheaper, and I believe Vilardi will be as good or better than either Patrick or Hischier.
  6. I was looking at the upcoming NHL draft, and I do believe we should trade to acquire another top 5 1st round pick. Specifically, we should target Gabriel Vilardi. Why, you might ask? He's got the telltale signs of recent improvement and overcoming adversity. In 2014-2015 he was only playing in Midget AAA, with decent stats: 21G 18A in 21 games. Then he got into the OHL in 2015-2016 and had a bit of a rough year, with 62 games, 17G 21A and a -7 rating. But he managed to overcome this has 29G 32A in 49 games played with a +13 rating in 2016-2017. And it's not like this guy is on a dynamite team; the Windsor Spitfires are 5th in their OHL conference. This guy got into the OHL a full year later than most top 5 draft picks, and had a rough 1st OHL year, and has now moved into the consensus #4 overall draft spot. To me this guy has late bloomer written all over him, and he's 6'2 192 pounds now. I can see this guy being NHL ready at 20 years old and making an immediate impact.
  7. Which goalie do we expose? From what I understand we can't protect Markstrom right now. We need to expose a goalie with a certain # of pro games played that is signed for next season. EDIT: I guess we are exposing Bachman. Wasn't sure if he was signed next season or not.
  8. I would say that Baer is clearly developing into a legit second line player. He's only 24 and still has room to grow. You are right about some of those guys, but wrong about: Virtanen - not a bust, just taking a long time to develop. Bertuzzi wasn't a good player right away. He took 6 full pro years before he broke out with 50 points in 80 games during the 1999-2000 season. Virtanen is a power forward and won't hit his stride for another 2-3 years. We just need to accept that. Hutton will be a 2nd pairing D-man, for sure. Tryamkin will be a 1st pairing D-man, and our version of Zdeno Chara.
  9. The owners are literal retards. But I'm actually impressed with Jim Benning, somewhat. He's following his marching orders to 'win now', but quietly making sure we have some good prospects going forward. If Virtanen can get his $&!# together, and Brock Boeser joins the team soon, we should have a decent first line centred by Horvat and a good second line centred by Sutter. I can see us re-signing Alex Burrows as a depth forward, and getting good value for him. The Sedins may even re-sign for less money if they don't retire (which I think they might). However, the Eriksson and Dorsett signings are really concering... that's 8.5M in salary cap space eaten up by two players that aren't really contributing a whole lot to wins, and we're stuck with them for a long time. Eriksson shows flashes of why we signed him, but it doesn't justify 6M in salary.
  10. I did not mention that in post, because the cap relief next year is a bit non-existant. We will go down to $55M cap next year, but we also have a lot of players coming up to UFA/RFA status. We'll likely end up with maybe 5-6M cap space extra, max, after re-sigining everyone we can. But definitely after 2017-2018 when the Sedin contracts end, we will have more cap space. However, the Canucks could easily have almost 10M more cap space than we do now if we hadn't re-signed Dorsett and hadn't signed Eriksson. Those two contracts right there hurt a lot. That's 8.5M in cap space that we are stuck with for a long time. Idiocy.
  11. I'm not saying you can't make good moves without accepting bad cap hits. And also, the two trades are not comparable. Baertschi was struggling and could have been considered a 'project'. I would argue the risk in the Baertschi trade was considerably higher. Mind you, if Teravainen busts, feel free to quote/flame me on this. I would argue that 3-4 years from now Teravainen is clearly the better player.
  12. Just to add an example of a good team/player to target: I would be targeting the Pittsburgh Penguins and Marc-Andre Fleury towards the trade deadline, if I were a rebuilding team with cap space. Matt Murray just backstopped them to a Stanley Cup, so he's clearly clutch. He's got a decent .922 Sv% this year, and has played 29 games. In contrast, Fleury has only started 28 games, likely being given every chance to prove himself, but has only mustered a .906 Sv% and an ugly 3.15GAA. Fleury is signed until 2018-2019 at an AAV of 5.75M. The penguins would almost certainly like to clear that cap space, and it's not likely they will get much value for an over the hill, overpaid goaltender. A trading partner that could eat Fleury's contract and offer them a value player (like Jannik Hansen) could definitely get some picks/prospects out of the Penguins. This is a team that definitely has another cup run in them, maybe 2-3 more. They want to win now, and would be willing to pay for it if the price is fair. Unfortunately the Canucks are not in a position to take advantage of such a situation.
  13. I've been mulling this idea over for a while now, and I'm more convinced than ever that it's absolutely the way a team should rebuild (or re-tool, if you will). Basically the idea is this: a rebuilding team should have LOTS of cap space. Why you ask? Well: To get right to the point, the best recent example I can point to is the Carolina Hurricanes offseason trade with the Blackhawks for Teuvo Teravainen. This is the guy that absolutely lit up the WJC (world juniors) only a few years ago and looks to be a potential superstar in the making. He already has 28 points in 50 games this year for the Hurricanes, in only his 2nd full NHL year. What did the Hurricanes pay for Teravainen? A 2016 2nd round pick and a 2017 3rd round pick. That's it. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hurricanes acquired a player with strong first line potential for a 2nd and a 3rd round pick. Why were they able to make this move? The Blackhawks had an abundance of talent and a serious cap space issue. The only catch to this trade was the Hurricanes had to take a bad contract in Brian Bickell. This is of course the reality of the NHL Salary Cap Era. Like vultures, rebuilding NHL teams need to run lean with lots of cap space to make moves. This gives you room to take on a bad contract or two from competitive teams, in exchange for prospects/picks. I wish like hell the Canucks had the room to take Bickell / Teravainen. We easily could have been in on that deal. But nope, we didn't have the cap space. Imagine if the Canucks had 20M in cap space and could take 4-5 bad contracts from other NHL teams for the next 2-3 years. Sure, we would struggle for those 2-3 years... but we could acquire so many more picks/prospects. If the Canucks could have found the right trading partner, we could have traded a value player like Jannik Hansen (2.5M AAV) to a competitive team in exchange for picks/prospects and a bad contract. This kind of package is a win/win for both teams, and can help get you better value for your trade deadline assets. Hansen is injured now, so this is less clear. But we still don't have the cap space to maximize such a trade anyhow. We have less than 1M in cap space right now. A rebuilding team should not, however, sign an expensive 30+ year old free agent to a 6 year, 36 million dollar contract. TL;DR: Rebuilding (or re-tooling) NHL teams should run lean salary caps with lots of cap space. This allows them to take advantage of teams up against the salary cap, just like the Carolina Hurricanes did this past summer, when they acquired Teuvo Teravainen for only a 2nd and a 3rd round pick. The only catch was Carolina had to take a bad contract in Brian Bickell. Sadly, the Canucks are up against the cap right now with less than 1M in space, and unable to make such moves.
  14. Speed. If you watch some Junior clips of him, he is really good at exploding up the wing, and he can score goals off those rushes. He would give whatever line he is on that breakout threat, forcing defenders back. This opens up the neutral zone and makes zone entry easier, allowing his line to better enter the offensive zone with control.
  15. I'm not so sure that's true. He generates his offense from far out because that's how they have him playing. If you watch his Junior days, he had some Bobby Orr like rushes up the wing to score goals. They have him not doing that in Utica because they want him to be more defensively sound. Trust me, he will score goals from wherever you play him. With his speed and shot, his rush up the wing from a breakout pass would be NASTY. He would literally force teams to back up more and be ready to defend him when he's on the ice.