tybarber

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About tybarber

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  • Birthday 09/07/1989

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    Vancouver, BC

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  1. Jim Benning Mic'd Up at the Draft

    Either that or a chirp to Chayka after the Arizona pick.
  2. Elias Pettersson | C/RW

    EP is bulking now to everyone's joy.
  3. A Question of Value

    As others have mentioned, the math for the expected total value of the picks is off, it shouldn't be "189%", or 100% for one Top 6 F/Top 4 D and 89% for another, I don't think anyone is taking issue with the probability associated with each pick. I unfortunately spent time trying to figuring it out, so if you are interested: There's a 93% chance they get at least one Top 6 F/Top 4 D, a 39% chance they get only two, a 22% chance they get only 3, and a 3.8% chance they get four. Basically, I just listed the combinations in which they either get a Top 6 F/Top 4 D as "Yes" (Y) or "No" (N). So, with the four picks, there is one combination of getting all four Yes, YYYY and on combination of missing on all four, NNNN. Four combinations of 3 "Yes", YYYN, YYNY, YNYY, NYYY, 6 combinations of two "Yes", and so on. You just have to calculate the odds for each combination because the probability is different for each draft position. So, for example, the probability of the combination YYYN coming up is (59/100) * (59/100) * (49/100) * (78/100) [the probably that you get "No" is 1 - the probability you get yes, i.e. 100 - 21.7 or ~ 78] = 13.3 percent. So if you add up the probabilities for all the combinations of getting exactly three Top 6 F/Top 4 D, it is about a 22.4 percent chance. Of course these models are totally off base, and this really means nothing, these would only be useful for projecting what might occur in the future. Bottom line, Benning has been solid at drafting, the one that seems to get a lot of heat is the Virtanen pick, but he was ranked pretty frequently around the 6 - 10 spot. And let's not forget about all the talk of "meddling" owners, this was a pick for a team with new management that had just missed the playoffs for the first time in a while and was losing image with the local fanbase after the Tortorella experiment, there's something about "Local kid picked by favorite team" that gains some of that back. Part of me kind of believes that Virtanen was an ownership pick. At the end of the day though, I'm on board with Virtanen, he's looking like he can be a solid NHL player, and if he works on his stick handling and shooting accuracy, he could be deadly. I noticed during warm-ups at a few games last year he was one of, if not the, hardest shots on the team (even more so than Brock, so it seemed), just lost some accuracy on it. I also noticed via instagram his stick handling coach is a guy I've played against at UBC, he's a local ball hockey player and stick handling coach, and the guy can handle a puck, better than most NHLers I would bet. And he has to turn the corner to being a pro, I think there's still some adolescence and irresponsibility with him, but he'll grow. Since it seems like two of these players (Boeser and Pettersson) will turn into Top 6/Top 4 NHL-ers, I think we can say they have beat the 'odds'* . *odds really mean nothing and are based on a bunch of averages of averages and probabilities that at the end of the day don't reflect the specific draft year or player.
  4. Elias Pettersson | C/RW

    I think Elias' probably uses a more flexible stick, i.e. he doesn't need as much weight to get the stick to flex the same as Mika's. With stick technologies nowadays I think it is less about weight, but more about stick length and technique.
  5. Dorsett not returning to active roster

    A great article from DD. Talks about his path to the NHL, playing for the cup, coming to Vancouver, and the injury he faces. I had no idea about the circumstances that brought him to Vancouver, notably Willie attending his wedding and him wanting the chance to play for another NHL contract on a team not as deep as the Rangers. I'm glad the Canucks gave him that contract, even if he hadn't gotten injured. https://www.nhl.com/canucks/news/vancouver-canucks-derek-dorsett/c-293706012
  6. [PGT] Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vancouver Canucks

    That is Philarious. I want one. As for the game, it was nice to go to a game and feel like I wasn't attending church. The atmosphere felt great again.
  7. [PGT] Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks

    Pouliot looks good offensively, but the guy does not seem capable of making an accurate outlet pass. Pass the puck to Bo as he flies up the left wing on the power play worked in game 1, not so much anymore. Did bo get bumped to the fourth line? I saw burmistrov end the game with baertschi and boeser in like the whole third period, didn't see much of bo for 5 on 5. MDZ is playing really well, two unfortunate bounces last two games. Loved the gudbranson push back in the first, but they needed more of that in the third.
  8. [PGT] Ottawa Senators vs. Vancouver Canucks

    Things were screwy last night because the Cubs-Nationals game was cancelled. The baseball game was originally scheduled on Sportsnet Pacific, so they had the canucks game on their alternate, Canucks only channel, something like 302 on Shaw. Since there was no baseball or hockey game on the actual SNP they just showed an NHL scoreboard. You didn't miss much.
  9. The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread

    Hey Harvey, really appreciate all the updates regarding housing. Question and some commentary for you, does the BCREA (or any organization for that matter) look at number of rentals and rates as well over the last year? Has this empty home tax had an effect do you know? The reason I'm asking is I live in a shared house along the Cambie corridor which got bought up by a developer (5 mil for a piece of garbage, but that's for another day) and we all are looking to move out. Over the past year, I would occasionally check craigslist to see what was available for rent. And as I'm looking now, it seems like the supply of available 1 bedroom condos (brand new nonetheless) to rent is significantly larger than what I remember from say 6 months ago. This is purely anecdotal of course, so I'm wondering if BCREA has the stats for this? It seems that the empty home tax might be having an effect, in conjunction with a lot of new developments being completed. Because there just seems to be an astounding number that are brand new. In one of the earlier articles posted, it talked about supply, and how that's not the real underlying problem for housing prices (not necessarily rentals), which I agree with. Maybe there's a supply problem for the purchase of condos, but for renters, it just doesn't seem that way? The most notable statistic is how the rate of increase in dwelling numbers has matched or exceeded the growth rate of the City, and has consistently been like that for the past 20 years.The argument has been that, well, there are too many luxury condos that are being built. So, If just looking at the City of Vancouver, do you think it's possible to see downward pressure on rental prices? I only say this because the supply seems so high right now, and where's the demand for these luxury units coming from? And, also posted in one of the previous articles, it had mentioned that some major developments are slated for completion at the end of this year (again, more luxury homes) and are supposed to double (not sure on this figure) the number of units completed last year. So, a combination of these high 1-bedroom rental rates (~1,800 - 2,000), which seem to be all that's on the market, and all that will be coming on the market, who can they rent them to? I only say this of course assuming that there's quite a few that need to be rented, because, well the owner doesn't actually live here. There's only a select group that seem to be in a position to comfortably be able to rent these units. It seems to me to only be the sort of 25 - 35 year old young professional that is making over 60K/year. Which even then seems to be a bit of a stretch for some. We don't have the high paying tech industry that sort of, "justify" isn't the right word, but maybe, "accompanies" the high rental rates we see in SF, so something seems awry to me that just doesn't add up here in Vancouver. Unless you consider that industry developers. Of course though, people have been saying that for the last 5, 10 years and nothing has happened to start put a downward pressure on prices. Anyways, what I'm seeing could be the total opposite of what the stats say, but that's just what I'm seeing as I start too look for a new place to live in the City.
  10. The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread

    There may be a perfectly reasonable explanation for this, but when a company has subsidies of companies with different registrations, e.g. limited vs limited partnership, and some company called '0742012 B.C. Ltd', something seems off. It's insane that the West Residences one-bedrooms went from 300K to 800K in 5 years, even though it's only been built for 3. Do you think that Loonie strengthening will cool down some offshore inflow?
  11. [GDT] 2017 NHL Entry Draft

    This article made me feel a lot better about the pick. (Sorry can't embed text from my phone). Sounds like the kid has a lot of skill and outscored forsberg and Nylander in their respective draft years in the allsvenkan and has a lot of pure skill and hockey IQ. Has a lot of upside imo, needs to pack on a few L-Bs though. http://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/should-the-canucks-draft-elias-pettersson-1.20342866
  12. TSN Expansion Draft Simulator

    First thing I noticed, there's a "Jaycob Megna" with Anaheim (yes, it is Jayson's brother). I had no idea there was more than one. Maybe George will take both Megna's and try to start his own Sedin line. Megnary? Doesn't have the same ring to it.
  13. Moving up in the lottery AND getting Anaheim's first round pick, talk about the stars aligning.
  14. [Signing] Canucks re-sign Jayson Megna

    Don't think that's how it works, it's not really a matter of who you expose vs. protect. It only matters who you protect, everyone else is technically exposed. There is just the caveat of the "everyone else" category where they are exempt if they are a prospect and there has to be at least 2(?) forwards with X number of NHL games and 1 D with X number of NHL games and they have to be under contract, etc in your "everyone else" category.. If Gaunce is left unprotected, he is still available to Vegas, they just get a player who is not under contract, which they are probably fine with. Also, if this were the case you would just wait to sign Horvat until after the expansion draft if players without contracts are exempt. The league is just requiring that in the "everyone who is not protected" category, there are at least some quality NHL experienced players who are already under contract so as to help Vegas be competitive. But for I think most if not all NHL teams, this doesn't really matter because you can protect so few players, that Vegas just basically gets to pick one NHL-er (not really AHL-er) from each team who isn't protected (unless they are in the prospect exemption category). I would have to check this, but I think that also Vegas has first rights at extending qualifying offers to RFA's prior or during the expansion draft? But if they sign the RFA they can't pick a player from your team anymore, not sure if they would have to give up compensation though? That wouldn't make sense... I'm not too clear on that scenario. But I think there's something about if they sign one of your FA's during there negotiating period prior to the expansion draft they can't take one of your players? The Boeser6 post above is great. Megna is not very good and is used in peculiar situations, but his compete/effort is there and I'm okay with instituting a culture of requiring hard work to get the ice time. If you can't out compete Megna for a roster spot, then you should have your work ethic checked.
  15. Brock Boeser | #6 | RW

    Boom goes the dynamite on that hit.