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Shaelon

[OFFICIAL] Playoff Indicator Chart 2011

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I'm pretty sure you added 10 points to each team in this scenario, meaning that the key number would actually be 103, which is 2 more wins.

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Still possible. They would need to get 103 points in order to clinch. It is still possible for them to fall as far as 11th with only 101 points due to the West being so flat this year. So two more wins to clinch both their division and a playoff spot.

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You want to know why you guys are having such a problem with this? Because this is more an instrument for teams fighting for their playoff lives. We know the Canucks are making the playoffs. The only uselfullness of this sort of math now is to determine if we've clinched: a) the division, and B) the Presidents Trophy.

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The probabilities of the Canucks missing the playoffs is infinitesimal, but they still have not clinched beyond a doubt. Interesting to note I think 96 points has been the highest 8th seed needed to make it over the last 20 years. Lets put it this way if you were to go to Vegas and place a bet on the Canucks not making the playoffs the odds would be approximately 10,000 to 1 according to the computer analysis.

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Still possible. They would need to get 103 points in order to clinch. It is still possible for them to fall as far as 11th with only 101 points due to the West being so flat this year. So two more wins to clinch both their division and a playoff spot.

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The NHL has only ever done the basic math of POTENTIAL points to catch those ahead of them. It has never done cross referencing of games played versus to account for loss of points to another competing team.

Sure the OP is kind justified with probabilities, but the NHL will not ever do that.

I'll just wait til the Canucks make the gap so large on the Flames, they are assured the division title, then who cares.

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Probabilities aside, when you factor in how the NHL structures the conference standings, Vancouver can clinch with a regulation or overtime win, coupled with a Calgary regulation loss this coming Tuesday. Given that, if the scenario then played out where Calgary won all of their remaining games in regulation or overtime, and Vancouver lost all of ours in regulation, we would still clinch the division based on more games won (note the new ROW column on the NHL.com standings page for combined Regulation and Overtime wins). In this best/worst case scenario, Calgary would have a ROW value of 38. Vancouver's ROW value is currently 41.
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This will clinch them over Calgary but not over the Wild, even with a win Monday. :) They will still need a win against the Avs to seal the division and a playoff spot at the same time.

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Man. The NW division is weak!:blink:

Right now, it is actually easier for the Canucks to clinch the NW title than to secure the 8th place in Western conference! :lol:

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No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on.

According to the math http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Northwest/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better.

The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams.

It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on.

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Okay, let me spell it out for the ones this is going over the heads of:

If Nashville wins all their remaining games, the teams they play will not get points in these games. Some of these teams will be above them in the current standing which

means that they will slip. The site the guy used put all this into consideration and found that mathematically, it is not possible for the Canucks to finish below the top 8. It is

not as simple as getting the games remaining from the cutoff team, multiplying them by 2, adding them to their current point total and comparing that to the amount of points we have.

EDIT:

Ok, the guy misunderstood how that site worked

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If you look at the very top it says the following

Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances

Beat Flames 4-3, playoff odds up 0.0 to 99.999999%

99 points 45-16-9

Add your own league!

Thus as I said previously he is rounding and there is still at least one possible scenario where the Canucks do not make the playoffs.

in 2006/2007 season the 8th place team in the west had 96 points

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Mathematically the Canucks have not clinched a playoff spot, however with a win over calgary the next time they play and only 3 other points gained for the rest of the season they cannot be seeded anywhere below 3rd

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Technically the Canucks can still miss the playoffs, but given the fact, all 8 teams that finish in the West are unlikely to finish with 100+ points. Its just not going to happen. so put it this way, Vancouver has clinched. Its the same thing with the Oilers, no matter if they can win all their remaining games, theres no way they can actually clinch. Its theoretically impossible at this point.

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No we haven't. Calgary has 22 points availabe, so if we lose all our games, and Calgary along with the teams above them win all their games, we won't make the playoffs. If we win Monday, then we should have clinched it.

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No we haven't. Calgary has 22 points availabe, so if we lose all our games, and Calgary along with the teams above them win all their games, we won't make the playoffs. If we win Monday, then we should have clinched it.

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No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on.

According to the math http://www.sportsclu...st/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better.

The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation /topic/293086-official-magic-number-chart-2010-2011">http://forum.canucks...chart-2010-2011, which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams.

It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on.

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Vancouver clinches NW division with 2 more wins or 1 win and Calgary

regulation loss. With the new 1st tie breaker (ROW) regulation plus OT

wins, Calgary can not catch us. Van has 41 now, Calgary can end up

with 39 max.

WOOO HOOOO Bring it home boys<br>Sorry forgot Minnesota, Canucks need a extra point on that i believe. So 2 wins +<br>clinches.<br>

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