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[OFFICIAL] Playoff Indicator Chart 2011


cleowin

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If you do the math, With a Calgary loss tonight regardless of Reg or OT, Canucks clinch a playoff spot because even if Minnesota won every single game Vancouver would hold all of the tie breakers, AND if and I mean IF Minny won every remaining game Vancouver could not finish below eigth place.

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<br />So if I am correct, if flames lose tonight they are out of the race of the NW division title, and cant finish anywhere higher then 3rd place. However Canucks can't clinch a playoff spot or the NW title due to the wild have a possibility to win all of their remaining 12 games, and finishing with 101 points and with 47 wins... Say however the wild win 2 of the games in SO while canucks lose their remaining 11 games in regulation, Canucks wouldd still clinch the NW title, due to the season series being tied or canucks winning the series or due to GF/ GA differential.. If the Canucks  win tomorrow or lose in OT/ SO  we clinch the NW title and a  playoff spot no matter what and finish in the top 3 in the western conference.. btw flames are down 2-1 and its the end of 2nd period... BOOM<br />
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<br /><br /><br />

Minnesota sucks hard in the shootout and probably won't get any wins that way. But yeah I'm more concerned about the Detroits magic number which is at eight right now, Vancouver needs any combo of wins and Detroit losses adding up to 8 in the next 11 games for Vancouver and 13 for Detroit. So in 24 games the Canucks need eight positive results to eliminate Detroit.

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<br />Think of it this way ....in the 24 games Detroit would need A LOT more positive results to eliminate the Canucks. So far be it from me to assume that those 8 positive results in 24 games (1/3) isn't reasonably easy to attain.<br />
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we have clinched. we are up 20 points on the flames and they have 10 games left. we have them beat on Regulation/overtime wins + head to head. Canucks are officially clinched. :P

Detroit, San Jose, L.A, Phoenix, Chicago, Dallas, Nashville, Anaheim and Minnesota can still all pass us. That's 9.

As for "but they play each other" read this:

That's right, sportsclubstats 'only' looks at 100 million possible ways the western conference could play out, when in fact there are about 10^60 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) possible ways the conference could finish.

One of those ways puts the Canucks in 11th place:

All 3 point games:

Canucks lose all games - 101 pts

MIN wins all games - 101 pts but they have the tiebreaker

CGY wins all games except against ANA - 102 pts

ANA wins all games except against CGY, CHI, SJS - 102 pts

NSH wins all games except against LAK, DET, ANA, DAL - 102 pts

DAL wins all games except against CHI, ANAx2, PHX, LAK, MIN - 102 pts

LAK wins all games except against ANAx3, CGY, SJSx2, PHX - 102 pts

PHX wins all games except against CGY, SJSx3 - 102 pts

CHI wins all games except against PHX, DETx2 - 102 pts

SJS wins all games except against DALx2, MIN, CGY, ANA - 105 pts

DET wins all games except against NSH, MIN, CHI - 113 pts

The good news is I think the Canucks can no longer finish 12th, even though the Magic Number chart implies otherwise, there just aren't enough possible points left to spread around 12 teams. Magic Numbers are often (but not always) misleading in terms of worst case scenario and playoff clinching.

Fascinating.

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Tuesday, March 15th, 2011:

Magic Number Charts have been updated!

MTL, DAL, CGY, NSH and BUF Dropped 1 Point!

CBJ Dropped 0.5 Points!

NYR and BUF's Magic Number has reached 0!

0-10-1 Record needed to clinch a playoff spot and the Northwest Division!

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Thus win tommorrow and start the resting program...

Remember the good ol' days when the goal was to win the division? :towel:

A win tomorrow and we will knock Minnesota and Calgary out of potential of catching us.

We are spoiled though. I'm looking at the magic number and am kinda saddened that we won't lower Colorado's magic number by 2 because it's already zero. :D

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