Jump to content

Welcome to canucks.com Vancouver Canucks homepage

Photo
* * * * * 33 votes

[OFFICIAL] Playoff Indicator Chart 2011


  • Please log in to reply
782 replies to this topic

#301 Ben Kenobi

Ben Kenobi

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 668 posts
  • Joined: 03-January 11

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:24 AM

I'm pretty sure you added 10 points to each team in this scenario, meaning that the key number would actually be 103, which is 2 more wins.


Yeah, sorry. Fixed.
  • 0
Posted Image

Thanks to Ballard_4 for the sig!

#302 snowboard888

snowboard888

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 233 posts
  • Joined: 06-April 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:28 AM

2 more wins then... ;p 2 more wins then we clinch division... ;)


2 games then we clinch division (Combined Canuck wins and Flame losses) ;)

Edited by snowboard888, 13 March 2011 - 01:42 AM.

  • 0

Posted Image


#303 wesley

wesley

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 589 posts
  • Joined: 12-March 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:31 AM

Still possible. They would need to get 103 points in order to clinch. It is still possible for them to fall as far as 11th with only 101 points due to the West being so flat this year. So two more wins to clinch both their division and a playoff spot.



Need 113 to clinch?

The best CAL and MIN can do right now is 103 points. So if Canucks reach104, they are in (NW division title).
  • 0

#304 NME

NME

    Comets Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 432 posts
  • Joined: 07-March 04

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:31 AM

You want to know why you guys are having such a problem with this? Because this is more an instrument for teams fighting for their playoff lives. We know the Canucks are making the playoffs. The only uselfullness of this sort of math now is to determine if we've clinched: a) the division, and B) the Presidents Trophy.
  • 0

#305 Babych65

Babych65

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 923 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:33 AM

The probabilities of the Canucks missing the playoffs is infinitesimal, but they still have not clinched beyond a doubt. Interesting to note I think 96 points has been the highest 8th seed needed to make it over the last 20 years. Lets put it this way if you were to go to Vegas and place a bet on the Canucks not making the playoffs the odds would be approximately 10,000 to 1 according to the computer analysis.
  • 0

Posted ImageGive 'em hell Dave! Posted Image


#306 DocHouse

DocHouse

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 223 posts
  • Joined: 13-September 09

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:37 AM

Still possible. They would need to get 103 points in order to clinch. It is still possible for them to fall as far as 11th with only 101 points due to the West being so flat this year. So two more wins to clinch both their division and a playoff spot.


Probabilities aside, when you factor in how the NHL structures the conference standings, Vancouver can clinch with a regulation or overtime win, coupled with a Calgary regulation loss this coming Tuesday.

Given that, if the scenario then played out where Calgary won all of their remaining games in regulation or overtime, and Vancouver lost all of ours in regulation, we would still clinch the division and thus a playoff spot, based on more games won (note the new ROW column on the NHL.com standings page for combined Regulation and Overtime wins). In this best/worst case scenario, Calgary would have a ROW value of 38. Vancouver's ROW value is currently 41.

Edited by DocHouse, 13 March 2011 - 01:41 AM.

  • 0

#307 danjr

danjr

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 509 posts
  • Joined: 30-September 06

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:42 AM

The NHL has only ever done the basic math of POTENTIAL points to catch those ahead of them. It has never done cross referencing of games played versus to account for loss of points to another competing team.

Sure the OP is kind justified with probabilities, but the NHL will not ever do that.

I'll just wait til the Canucks make the gap so large on the Flames, they are assured the division title, then who cares.
  • 0
Calling dibs on a Presidents trophy. Boy did I call that right X2.

#308 Ben Kenobi

Ben Kenobi

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 668 posts
  • Joined: 03-January 11

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:42 AM

Probabilities aside, when you factor in how the NHL structures the conference standings, Vancouver can clinch with a regulation or overtime win, coupled with a Calgary regulation loss this coming Tuesday. Given that, if the scenario then played out where Calgary won all of their remaining games in regulation or overtime, and Vancouver lost all of ours in regulation, we would still clinch the division based on more games won (note the new ROW column on the NHL.com standings page for combined Regulation and Overtime wins). In this best/worst case scenario, Calgary would have a ROW value of 38. Vancouver's ROW value is currently 41.


This will clinch them over Calgary but not over the Wild, even with a win Monday. :) They will still need a win against the Avs to seal the division and a playoff spot at the same time.
  • 0
Posted Image

Thanks to Ballard_4 for the sig!

#309 DocHouse

DocHouse

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 223 posts
  • Joined: 13-September 09

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:47 AM

This will clinch them over Calgary but not over the Wild, even with a win Monday. :) They will still need a win against the Avs to seal the division and a playoff spot at the same time.


Grrr.... you're right, it is 2 games. I totally mis-read the Minny stats on the NHL site. My bad.
  • 0

#310 wesley

wesley

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 589 posts
  • Joined: 12-March 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:51 AM

Man. The NW division is weak!:blink:

Right now, it is actually easier for the Canucks to clinch the NW title than to secure the 8th place in Western conference! :lol:
  • 0

#311 Ray-Ferraro's-Mustache

Ray-Ferraro's-Mustache

    Canucks Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,264 posts
  • Joined: 17-November 06

Posted 13 March 2011 - 02:51 AM

No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on.

According to the math http://www.sportsclu...st/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better.

The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation http://forum.canucks...chart-2010-2011, which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams.

It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on.


We currently have 99 points. The flames have 81 points in 71 games thus Calgary has 11 games left with a possibility of 22 points remaining. Thus if Calgary wins out which wont happen they could finish the season with (81 + 22 =) 103 points. Minnesota has 77 in 69 games, 13 games left with 26 points left available. Thus mini could Finnish with (77 + 26 =) 103 points. The Canucks have not yet clinched a playoff spot but within 3 wins we will clinch the division and a playoff spot.

What you are looking at is odds which is different. In his odds he is rounding up from 99.5something to 100%. Neither are wrong but it is not currently impossible for us to miss the playoffs.

Edited by T-rev P, 13 March 2011 - 02:52 AM.

  • 0
Posted Image

#312 Ray-Ferraro's-Mustache

Ray-Ferraro's-Mustache

    Canucks Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,264 posts
  • Joined: 17-November 06

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:06 AM

Okay, let me spell it out for the ones this is going over the heads of:

If Nashville wins all their remaining games, the teams they play will not get points in these games. Some of these teams will be above them in the current standing which

means that they will slip. The site the guy used put all this into consideration and found that mathematically, it is not possible for the Canucks to finish below the top 8. It is

not as simple as getting the games remaining from the cutoff team, multiplying them by 2, adding them to their current point total and comparing that to the amount of points we have.


EDIT:

Ok, the guy misunderstood how that site worked


If Calgary and Minnesota win out they will each have 103 points.
Calgary and Minnesota do not have any games remaining against one another so this is possible.

I'm way to lazzy to check his math but if every game other then games the canucks are involved in go to over time i think it is possible the nucks could miss the playoffs. Currently 4th through 11 can Finnish with more points then the nucks if they win out. That is 8 teams, if you consider over time and have both Minnesota and Calgary finish ahead of us and everyone get at least a point in their games I think out of the thousands of possible scenarios there is at least one where we don't make the playoffs.
  • 0
Posted Image

#313 Ray-Ferraro's-Mustache

Ray-Ferraro's-Mustache

    Canucks Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,264 posts
  • Joined: 17-November 06

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:12 AM

If you look at the very top it says the following

Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances
Beat Flames 4-3, playoff odds up 0.0 to 99.999999%
99 points 45-16-9
Add your own league!

Thus as I said previously he is rounding and there is still at least one possible scenario where the Canucks do not make the playoffs.

in 2006/2007 season the 8th place team in the west had 96 points
  • 0
Posted Image

#314 rypper-37

rypper-37

    Canucks Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,889 posts
  • Joined: 18-August 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:25 AM

I'm sorry..but what?
  • 0

#315 KelownaCanucksFan

KelownaCanucksFan

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 625 posts
  • Joined: 17-November 06

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:30 AM

Mathematically the Canucks have not clinched a playoff spot, however with a win over calgary the next time they play and only 3 other points gained for the rest of the season they cannot be seeded anywhere below 3rd
  • 0

Posted Image
Thanks to GoaltenderInterference for the sig!


#316 Shaelon

Shaelon

    Magic Number Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,259 posts
  • Joined: 24-October 07

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:36 AM

Technically the Canucks can still miss the playoffs, but given the fact, all 8 teams that finish in the West are unlikely to finish with 100+ points. Its just not going to happen. so put it this way, Vancouver has clinched. Its the same thing with the Oilers, no matter if they can win all their remaining games, theres no way they can actually clinch. Its theoretically impossible at this point.
  • 0

#317 canuckschick1234

canuckschick1234

    Canucks Second-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,910 posts
  • Joined: 05-August 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:55 AM

No we haven't. Calgary has 22 points availabe, so if we lose all our games, and Calgary along with the teams above them win all their games, we won't make the playoffs. If we win Monday, then we should have clinched it.
  • 0
2011-2012 LEAGUE STANDINGS - Last updated: March 19, 2:18 PM

Posted Image

#318 canuckschick1234

canuckschick1234

    Canucks Second-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,910 posts
  • Joined: 05-August 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 03:55 AM

No we haven't. Calgary has 22 points availabe, so if we lose all our games, and Calgary along with the teams above them win all their games, we won't make the playoffs. If we win Monday, then we should have clinched it.
  • 0
2011-2012 LEAGUE STANDINGS - Last updated: March 19, 2:18 PM

Posted Image

#319 CanadianBorn88

CanadianBorn88

    Comets Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 493 posts
  • Joined: 02-November 08

Posted 13 March 2011 - 04:02 AM

No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on.

According to the math http://www.sportsclu...st/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better.

The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation http://forum.canucks...chart-2010-2011, which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams.

It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on.


There is no logic in your logic. Predictors are not accurate, a person that knows the league and the teams could make a better prediction than a computer program. A team doesn't clinch until it is officially mathematical possible, fact, not prediction.
  • 0


#320 EDLER POINT

EDLER POINT

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 111 posts
  • Joined: 31-December 07

Posted 13 March 2011 - 04:52 AM

Vancouver clinches NW division with 2 more wins or 1 win and Calgary
regulation loss. With the new 1st tie breaker (ROW) regulation plus OT
wins, Calgary can not catch us. Van has 41 now, Calgary can end up
with 39 max.
WOOO HOOOO Bring it home boys<br>Sorry forgot Minnesota, Canucks need a extra point on that i believe. So 2 wins +<br>clinches.<br>

Edited by EDLER POINT, 13 March 2011 - 05:13 AM.

  • 0

#321 Ham and Cheese Sandwich

Ham and Cheese Sandwich

    K-Wing Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 52 posts
  • Joined: 17-January 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 04:52 AM

WHO CARES
  • 0

#322 NAILED-BY-THE-HAMMER

NAILED-BY-THE-HAMMER

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 798 posts
  • Joined: 10-September 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 05:45 AM

<br />Man. The NW division is weak!<img src='http://forum.canucks...fault/blink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':blink:' /> <br /><br />Right now, it is actually easier for the Canucks to clinch the NW title than to secure the 8th place in Western conference! <img src='http://forum.canucks...fault/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lol:' /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

it wasnt weak in the early going.
  • 0
Posted Image

#323 NAILED-BY-THE-HAMMER

NAILED-BY-THE-HAMMER

    Comets Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 798 posts
  • Joined: 10-September 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 05:54 AM

<br />If you look at the very top it says the following<br /><br />Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances<br />Beat Flames 4-3, playoff odds up <b>0.0 to 99.999999%</b><br />99 points   45-16-9<br />Add your own league!<br /><br />Thus as I said previously he is rounding and there is still at least one possible scenario where the Canucks do not make the playoffs. <br /><br />in 2006/2007 season the 8th place team in the west had 96 points<br />

<br /><br /><br />

we already un-officially clinched with the win against the sharks.
  • 0
Posted Image

#324 Garrett-6

Garrett-6

    Comets Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 418 posts
  • Joined: 02-February 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 06:41 AM

they dident clinch if my math is right lol they will need at least 2-3 more wins before they clinch assumeing the 9th place team loses
  • 0
Posted Image

#325 taib mahmud

taib mahmud

    Canucks Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,038 posts
  • Joined: 24-October 07

Posted 13 March 2011 - 09:15 AM

Have the Canucks broken the record for staying longest as #1 in regular season? Feels like an eternity.
  • 0

#326 froskii

froskii

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 164 posts
  • Joined: 17-March 09

Posted 13 March 2011 - 09:28 AM

Come on you guys give him a break its apparent hes either mentally challenged or 5 so you cant really expect him to do simple math.

Edited by froskii, 13 March 2011 - 10:30 AM.

  • -1

#327 Kent.S

Kent.S

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,658 posts
  • Joined: 01-September 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 09:39 AM

This thread is just one epic facepalm, not to the op but everyone saying he's wrong....
  • 0

#328 BCCaper

BCCaper

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 133 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 11

Posted 13 March 2011 - 09:39 AM

I don't understand what people are worrying about, we're as good as in... Enough with the simulators just watch the damn games and let it unfold naturally. We have a comfortable lead, we will clinch a playoff spot soon enough.
  • 0

#329 Hobble

Hobble

    Canucks All-Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15,651 posts
  • Joined: 27-June 07

Posted 13 March 2011 - 09:42 AM

It is just as unlikely for the Canucks to lose all of their remaining games, as it is for Nashville to win all of their remaining games...
  • 0

#330 Kent.S

Kent.S

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,658 posts
  • Joined: 01-September 10

Posted 13 March 2011 - 09:50 AM

Dumb iPhone for posting early...

Whatever, I was saying that are you guys actually serious about the preds, flames, coyotes, and the kings all taking us out of a play off spot?

It's impossible for them to win every remainig game preds play like 5 games against the top 9 teams same, the ducks play 12 more, coyotes play 8, Calgary 7. That's 30 games... 60 points they have to divide.

Good post op
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Canucks.com is the official Web site of The Vancouver Canucks. The Vancouver Canucks and Canucks.com are trademarks of The Vancouver Canucks Limited Partnership.  NHL and the word mark and image of the Stanley Cup are registered trademarks and the NHL Shield and NHL Conference logos are trademarks of the National Hockey League. All NHL logos and marks and NHL team logos and marks as well as all other proprietary materials depicted herein are the property of the NHL and the respective NHL teams and may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of NHL Enterprises, L.P.  Copyright © 2009 The Vancouver Canucks Limited Partnership and the National Hockey League.  All Rights Reserved.