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[OFFICIAL] Playoff Indicator Chart 2011


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#241 jmd_canauckfan

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 12:36 AM

Just when I thought tonight's win couldn't get any better, I find out that it also eliminated the Leafs. Solid night.

Edited by jmd_canauckfan, 11 March 2011 - 01:06 AM.

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#242 Shaelon

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 12:54 AM

Thursday, March 10th, 2011:
Magic Number Charts have been updated!
MTL, CGY, MIN and TOR dropped 2 Points!
BOS and SJS dropped 1.5 Points!
Every other team dropped 1 Point!
TOR and NJD's Magic Number has dropped to 0!
4-8-1 Record needed to clinch a playoff spot and the Northwest Division!
10-3-0 Record needed to clinch the Western Conference!
12-1-0 Record needed to clinch the President's Trophy!
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#243 kchengc

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 01:04 AM

Thursday, March 10th, 2011:
Magic Number Charts have been updated!
MTL, CGY, MIN and TOR dropped 2 Points!
BOS and SJS dropped 1.5 Points!
Every other team dropped 1 Point!
TOR and NJD's Magic Number has dropped to 0!
4-8-1 Record needed to clinch a playoff spot and the Northwest Division!
10-3-0 Record needed to clinch the Western Conference!
12-1-0 Record needed to clinch the President's Trophy!



i think we only need to win one more game to clinch a playoff spot even if the worst case scenario happen (i.e. all other games ended in 3 point game & all the teams picking up either a point or two)... mathematically they may not have clinched but it is just not possible for 8 other teams to gain more points than the nucks even if they were to lose all their games but one...
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#244 kman1661

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 01:44 AM

Buffalo's magic number is listed as 3 but shouldn't it be 4?

Since Buffalo has 74 points and 15 games left, they can reach 104 points, so we would need 3.5 more wins to eliminate them plus the 0.5 for the tiebreaker correct?
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#245 snowboard888

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 09:09 AM

Philly should clinch before us, being in the less-competitive East. I'm waiting for that before I start looking for the Nucks' clincher. Can't be too far off, though!
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#246 The Belgian Canucks

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 10:00 AM

7 done, 22 to go!
Go Nucks GO!
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#247 arsenalian

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 10:41 AM

Philly should clinch before us, being in the less-competitive East. I'm waiting for that before I start looking for the Nucks' clincher. Can't be too far off, though!

Not necessarily we're pretty close to clinching the NW, I mean beat Calgary on Saturday, and the magic number to clinch is .5 I believe :huh: So I think Canucks will clinch first
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#248 Nuckwit

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 10:46 AM

Philly should clinch before us, being in the less-competitive East. I'm waiting for that before I start looking for the Nucks' clincher. Can't be too far off, though!

Philly need 6 more points to clinch a playoff spot, Canucks need one more point to clinch a playoff spot:

http://www.sportsclu...ic/Flyers2.html

http://www.sportsclu...t/Canucks2.html
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#249 Schneider's Teeth

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 10:49 AM

Philly need 6 more points to clinch a playoff spot, Canucks need one more point to clinch a playoff spot:

http://www.sportsclu...ic/Flyers2.html

http://www.sportsclu...t/Canucks2.html

Well, if we lose all 13 remaining games there is still a 44% chance of being 3rd seed in the West. I'm pretty sure that we're going to make it ;)
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#250 Shaelon

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 05:20 PM

Thanks for finding that error. It'll be updated tonight when I do my chart updates.
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#251 kman1661

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 06:03 PM

Not necessarily we're pretty close to clinching the NW, I mean beat Calgary on Saturday, and the magic number to clinch is .5 I believe :huh: So I think Canucks will clinch first


If we beat Calgary on Saturday the magic number will be 2.5, not 0.5 but yeah we'll still be pretty close to clinching
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#252 Justen

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 07:01 PM

So Assuming for a minute that the Nucks' win the next 3 games... would that Clinch the Div? I'm going to the yotes/nucks game on the 18th and im hoping they'll still be playing for something then Posted Image
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#253 Captain Bob

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 07:09 PM

So Assuming for a minute that the Nucks' win the next 3 games... would that Clinch the Div? I'm going to the yotes/nucks game on the 18th and im hoping they'll still be playing for something then Posted Image



They're going to be playing for the presidents trophy right up to the final horn.
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#254 Nuckwit

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 07:17 PM

So Assuming for a minute that the Nucks' win the next 3 games... would that Clinch the Div? I'm going to the yotes/nucks game on the 18th and im hoping they'll still be playing for something then Posted Image

The Canucks currently need 9 more points to clinch the division title:

http://www.sportsclu...st/Canucks.html
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#255 JoGuitar

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 09:29 PM

Bye ATL...:towel:
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#256 Shaelon

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Posted 12 March 2011 - 01:39 AM

Friday, March 11th, 2011:
Magic Number Charts have been updated! (Sorry for the late post! I was very busy tonight!)
BUF's Magic Number has been re-adjusted. Thanks to the poster who mentioned the error!
BOS, TBL, MIN, CAR and CBJ dropped 1 Point!
ATL dropped 0.5 Points!
ATL's Magic Number has dropped to 0!
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#257 JoGuitar

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Posted 12 March 2011 - 11:02 PM

So long St. Louis and Carolina
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#258 TypeX

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Posted 12 March 2011 - 11:51 PM

http://www.sportsclu...HL/Western.html

SportsClubStats peg us statistically to:
- be a lock for the playoffs
- 99% Conference top seed

*considering how other teams are playing
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#259 Bieksa's Quote

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:02 AM

http://www.sportsclu...HL/Western.html

SportsClubStats peg us statistically to:
- be a lock for the playoffs
- 99% Conference top seed

*considering how other teams are playing


Of course, I saw it too, but it's still mathematically possible for us to miss the playoffs.

If we go 0-12-0 and stay where we are, then all the other teams still in it can theoretically catch up, including the 9th place team (NSH) which could go for at least 7-0-6 to hit 100 points, with the best they can go at 13-0-0 for a total of 106 points.

Well there you have it. A long way of saying it's practically impossible :bigblush:
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#260 Shaelon

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:03 AM

Saturday, March 12th, 2011:
Magic Number Charts have been updated!
PIT, CGY, BUF and CAR dropped 2 Points!
PHI, SJS, and STL dropped 1.5 Points!
All other teams dropped 1 Point!
CAR and STL's Magic Number has dropped to 0!
2-9-1 Record needed to officially clinch a playoff spot and the Northwest Division!
9-3-0 Record needed to clinch the Western Conference!
10-1-1 Record needed to clinch the President's Trophy.
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#261 Nuckwit

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:29 AM

No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on.

According to http://www.sportsclu...st/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better.

The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation http://forum.canucks...chart-2010-2011, which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams.

It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on.


UPDATE: Since the original post, sportclubstats.com has withdrawn their claim of 100% playoff certainty. See below for more discussion.

Edited by Nuckwit, 13 March 2011 - 12:25 PM.

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#262 Papayas

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:31 AM

god damn it why don't you just marry nhl.com?
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#263 GodzillaDeuce

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:33 AM

hmmm... sportsclubstats runs on simulations of seasons, so while they give a good indication of how the season should play out, it's not exhaustive.

there's possibly still a chance that the canucks miss if EVERYTHING were to go wrong (and sportsclubstats just missed that season in their simulations)

edit: check this post on page 2 for the type of season i'm talking about before getting too excited

Edited by GodzillaDeuce, 13 March 2011 - 01:55 AM.

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well I'm sorry that gd is soo perfect


#264 ladii.canucklehead

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:35 AM

Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.
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#265 i4i

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:36 AM

Why is everyone getting worried about clinching a playoff spot? You know we're getting in, so that's that.
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#266 Van_City123

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:36 AM

i still havent caught on sorry.

WOW
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#267 GodzillaDeuce

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:37 AM

Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.


it's not that simple, you need to consider how the other bubble teams do then because you are saying nashville beats all of them, and so on and so forth
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well I'm sorry that gd is soo perfect


#268 Mata10

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:38 AM

:picard:
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#269 LeopardGecko

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:39 AM

No, they did not.

They only clinch a playoff spot when the #9th place team in the West cannot surpass the amount of points the Canucks have, if team #9 were to win their remaining games, and if the Canucks were to lose their remaining games.
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#270 JamesTW

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:39 AM

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<br />Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.<br />

<br /><br /><br />
That's not what he's saying, eight teams have to get ahead of Vancouver for them to miss. The problem is the teams that all have to catch Vancvouver have games against each other thereby potentially making it impossible for enough teams to get ahead.
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