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Blackhawks 2-1 Canucks (On Pace For...)


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#31 ice orca

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 06:46 AM

one thing you cant do is project injurys into this. bean counters do this kind of projections all the time, keeps them employed.

#32 DownUndaCanuck

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 07:07 AM

Wow, so much hate for someone just putting out facts. He just said what each player is on pace for, geez...

I think it's interesting to see that the Sedins are scoring at the same pace right now. Honestly I'm happy with just about all those projections except for maybe Booth and Burrows, but so far the slack has been picked up by Higgins and Lapierre.

Salo may keep up his pace but injuries will limit his season, and there's no way Malhotra finishes at a -50.

Imagine the goalies. Luongo finishes with what, barely 25 wins?
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#33 ajhockey

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 08:18 AM

lol @ elder 68 points.

not as out of reach as you may think...

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#34 Pitpotpit

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 10:19 PM

UPDATED

Always great to see the Flames lose, especially to the Canucks.

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#35 Demo250

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 10:32 PM

I like how in 1 game Edler has changed his pace from 68 points to 83 points.
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#36 NightHawkSniper

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 10:39 PM

Edler can easily get into Norris contention by keeping up this level of play of his, then again it is still early in the season to judge.

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#37 John Garret's moustache

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 11:40 PM

You get 200 hundred points for 12 million, someone please give me the adress of the fool who thinks that isn't a steal...
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#38 JamesTW

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 12:25 AM

4 million for 10 years!!!! get it right ;)

He gets 10 million this year.

#39 Twilight Sparkle

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 12:33 AM

Kesler will win the Selke with your projected -12!

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Twilight isn't impressed.


#40 WeatherWise

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 12:58 AM

Edler's projected for 83 points now, is he? :P He'd be the first defenseman since Brian Leetch in 1995-96 to reach 83 points.

Let's look at the point totals of the highest-scoring defensemen in the league these past dozen or so years.

2010-11: Lubomir Visnovsky, 18 G, 50 A, 68 points
2009-10: Mike Green, 19 G, 57 A, 76 points
2008-09: Mike Green, 31 G, 42 A, 73 points
2007-08: Nicklas Lidstrom, 10 G, 60 A, 70 points
2006-07: Scott Neidermayer, 15 G, 54 A, 69 points
2005-06: Nicklas Lidstrom, 16 G, 64 A, 80 points
2003-04: Sergei Gonchar, 11 G, 47 A, 58 points
2002-03: Al Macinnis, 16 G, 52 A, 68 points
2001-02: Sergei Gonchar, 26 G, 33 A, 59 points and Nicklas Lidstrom, 9 G, 50 A, 59 points
2000-01: Brian Leetch, 21 G, 58 A, 79 points
1999-00: Nicklas Lidstrom, 20 G, 53 A, 73 points
1998-99: Al Macinnis, 20 G, 42 A, 62 points
1997-98: Nicklas Lidstrom, 17 G, 42 A, 59 points
1996-97: Brian Leetch, 20 G, 58 A, 78 points
1995-96: Brian Leetch, 15 G, 70 A, 85 points
1994-95: Paul Coffey, 14 G, 44 A, 58 points (shortened season)
1993-94: Ray Bourque, 20 G, 71 A, 91 points.......... second that season was Sergei Zubov, 12 G, 77 A, 89 points
1992-93: Phil Housley, 18 G, 79 A, 97 points
1991-92: Brian Leetch, 20 G, 82 A, 102 points
1990-91: Al Macinnis, 28 G, 75 A, 103 points
1989-90: Paul Coffey, 29 G, 74 A, 103 points
1988-89: Paul Coffey, 30 G, 83 A, 113 points

... and the year before that, Gary Suter, uncle of Ryan Suter, led all defenseman in scoring with 21 G, 70 A, 91 points.

You can really tell when the dead puck era began.

Edited by WeatherWise, 02 November 2011 - 01:26 AM.

The greatest segue into a weather segment.

#41 Dildo Faggins

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:02 AM

One thing I'm really pleased about is Edler- he is totally outpacing Ehrhoff at this rate. Awesome job so far. I was really worried about the loss of Ehrhoff, but if this keeps up who the hell needs him? lol.

#42 Pitpotpit

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 09:00 AM

Posted Image 5 - 1Posted Image



VANCOUVER CANUCKS


Sedin.H 12 GP 4 G 10 A 14 P 4 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 27 G 68 A 95 P 27 +/-

Sedin.D 12 GP 5 G 9 A 14 P 2 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 34 G 61 A 95 P 13 +/-

Edler.A 12 GP 3 G 9 A 12 P 3 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 20 G 61 A 82 P 20 +/-


Salo.S 12 GP 3 G 5 A 8 P 6 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 20 G 34 A 54 P 41 +/-

Higgins.C 12 GP 6 G 2 A 8 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 41 G 13 A 54 P 0 +/-

Burrows.A 12 GP 4 G 2 A 6 P 4 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 27 G 13 A 41 P 27 +/-

Malhotra.M 12 GP 0 G 5 A 5 P -6 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 0 G 34 A 34 P -41 +/-

Kesler.R 7 GP 1 G 4 A 5 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 77 GP 11 G 44 A 55 P 0 +/-

Lapierre 12 GP 3 G 2 A 5 P 3 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 20 G 13 A 34 P 20 +/-

Hodgson.C 12 GP 3 G 2 A 5 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 20 G 13 A 34 P 0 +/-

Hamhuis.D 12 GP 0 G 3 A 3 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 0 G 20 A 20 P 0 +/-

Hansen.J 12 GP 1 G 3 A 4 P -4 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 6 G 20 A 27 P -27 +/-

Bieksa.K 12 GP 0 G 3 A 3 P -5 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 0 G 20 A 20 P -34 +/-

Weise.D 12 GP 1 G 2 A 3 P 2 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 6 G 13 A 20 P 13 +/-

Booth.D 4 GP 0 G 2 A 2 P -2 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 74 GP 0 G 37 A 37 P -37 +/-

Ebbett.A 2 GP 0 G 1 A 1 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 72 GP 0 G 36 A 36 P 0 +/-

Ballard.K 12 GP 1 G 0 A 1 P -9 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 6 G 0 A 6 P -61 +/-

Tanev.C 3 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P -1 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 73 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P -24 +/-

Alberts.A 6 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 76 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P 0 +/-

Sulzer.A 3 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P 0 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 73 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P 0 +/-

Volpatti.A 11 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P 1 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 81 GP 0 G 0 A 0 P 7 +/-

Edited by pitpotpit, 02 November 2011 - 08:29 PM.

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#43 kesler_is_clutch

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:19 AM

I think your way off on these predictions! What are you just making up numbers? Edler 82 pts lol

#44 avelanch

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:26 AM

I think your way off on these predictions! What are you just making up numbers? Edler 82 pts lol

take current total, divide by number of games played, multiply by number of remaining games and add to current total. it's not that hard of a concept.

edler has 12 points in 12 games, that's 1 point per game, with 70 remaining games, that's 70 more points, giving him 82 points.

#45 pianoman13

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:28 AM

I think your way off on these predictions! What are you just making up numbers? Edler 82 pts lol


He never said anything about predictions....

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#46 Edler's Mind Tricks

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:30 AM

Its called "on pace". These are NOT personal "projections"

Example: Burrows has scored a point in every second game so far (6 points in 12 games) so if he continued to stay "on pace" he would continue to score in one out of two games and end up with 41 points in 82 games.

One should not read much into these until about 30 games in; if ever. Edler will likely not get 83 points (although before the season started I said that his upside for this season was above 60 points and I think he could get 65 this year).

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#47 Jai604

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:40 AM

I'm glad to see people are able to do simple arithmetic.

:picard:

"On pace" discussions are usually a very large waste of time, as is this one. You're assuming all the positives stay positive and all the negatives stay negative at a constant rate. zzzzz

Honestly, anybody can do the calculations (if you can call them that :rolleyes:).

Extrapolating the data for the entire season of 82 games from a sample size of 12 games is pointless.

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#48 Edler's Mind Tricks

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:50 AM

It is somewhat cool... Honestly, most of the numbers are actually something I could see people ending up with (for ppg status, thus not considering injuries; even for Salo. and I am only considering points not G/A splits). Sedins at 97 points? I bet that will be close to right on.

Edler is one that is not reasonable but I think you can hope for 65 points.

Salo is reasonable.

Higgins and Malhotra are reasonable.

Burrows should get a couple more points then that but nothing spectacular.

Kesler/Hodgson/Booth are all ones where you can expect more points as they gain chemistry. It took 11 games for the rest of the team to gel so I expect the second line to explode in game 15-17.

Lapierre is a bit high, but not as much as people would think.

Ebbet is the most off base.

Overall I think that those numbers are actually pretty good.. It may be random chance but if you look back at the end of the season you may be surprised

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#49 NucksinNorway

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 10:58 AM

Especially compared to other teams that pay much lesser players 9-10 million dollars (Erhoff at 10 million).

Correct me if I'm wrong but with Ehrhoffs's signing bonus he's actually being paid 18mil this year... rediculous. But with the contract he signed he feels it's the best opportunity to win a cup so good for him. (Not saying I'd say no to 18mil, money does talk after all)

Edited by NucksinNorway, 02 November 2011 - 11:17 AM.


#50 Jai604

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 11:03 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong but with Edler's signing bonus he's actually being paid 18mil this year... rediculous. But with the contract he signed he feels it's the best opportunity to win a cup so good for him. (Not saying I'd say no to 18mil, money does talk after all)


Surely you meant Ehrhoff?

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#51 NucksinNorway

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 11:17 AM

Surely you meant Ehrhoff?

Yes I did

Fixed.

Edited by NucksinNorway, 02 November 2011 - 11:18 AM.


#52 Dasein

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:27 PM


Edler.A 12 GP 3 G 9 A 12 P 3 +/- ON PACE FOR ===> 82 GP 21 G 62 A 83 P 21 +/-


Posted Image

12 points in 12 games, and somehow he's on pace for 83 points in 82 games? Am I missing something here?

How does that work LOL. Edler's been beastly but he's not that beastly Posted Image

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#53 Edler's Mind Tricks

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:29 PM

It has something to do with the math and rounding with converting 12 games to 82. Same discrepency with Burr's 6 in 12 going to 42 in 82

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#54 avelanch

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:29 PM

Posted Image

12 points in 12 games, and somehow he's on pace for 83 points in 82 games? Am I missing something here?

How does that work LOL. Edler's been beastly but he's not that beastly Posted Image

rounding.

#55 Dasein

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:31 PM

Okay you guys lost me at rounding.

12 divided by 12 is 1. 1 multiplied by 82 is 82.0 flat.

Somehow 82.0 rounds up to 83?

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#56 Niloc009

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:34 PM

rounding.

That doesn't really make logical sense.

12 points in 12 games = 12/12 = 1 PPG.

1 PPG in 82 games = 1x82 = 82 points

I'm not sure how 83 is coming up...


edit: What Dasein said.

Edited by Niloc009, 02 November 2011 - 01:34 PM.

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#57 Dasein

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:47 PM

Like I can see what the kid did, which is calculate the goals per game and the assists per game separate, which comes out to something like:

3/12 = 0.25*82= 20.5 goals
9/12 = 0.75*82 = 61.5 assists

so round they round up the goals and assists individually and then added them up, to get 21 goals and 62 assist which adds up to 83 points. In this situation, where you have two 0.5s, you obviously round one up and round one down to even up the discrepancies to avoid looking like a dumbass--which, he didn't.

If you want more goals, it's 21G61A82P in 82GP, if you want more assists, it's 20G62A82P in 82GP.

But really? On pace for 83 points? At least I got a good laugh out of it Posted Image but I was laughing AT him, not WITH him.

Edited by Dasein, 02 November 2011 - 01:48 PM.

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#58 Glory Days

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:50 PM

On pace for first Stanley Cup in 41 years
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#59 suolucidir

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 01:58 PM

take current total, divide by number of games played, multiply by number of remaining games and add to current total. it's not that hard of a concept.

edler has 12 points in 12 games, that's 1 point per game, with 70 remaining games, that's 70 more points, giving him 82 points.

It has something to do with the math and rounding with converting 12 games to 82. Same discrepency with Burr's 6 in 12 going to 42 in 82


Some people are complicating things needlessly.

Stat / GP * 82 = simpler, and evidently more accurate..

Edited by suolucidir, 02 November 2011 - 02:01 PM.

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#60 Jai604

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 02:02 PM

lol, rounding.

This entire thread is fail.

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