Trading Luongo Vs Trading Schneider

[86Viking]

value wise a top 4 dman or top 6 or very good top 9 forward, a decent prospect who has already developed a couple years in the ahl or a year in the nhl and a 1st or 2nd round pick.

so Luo= 1st/2nd round pick, top 4 dman or solid forward depending on team needs, and a fairly good prospect that has shown signs of being an everyday nhler or currently is

as for that package from one team its hard to come up with right now as i see the main team that he would go to and who could use him is tampa.

too bad they traded downie,

my only idea from tampa now is: connolly, 2nd round pick, and a conditional pick(3rd if when raymond resigns) for LUO and raymond

in essence, Luongo for connolly and a 2nd. Raymond for a 3rd in say 2013

[86Viking]

doubt yzerman gives connolly and a 1st

[JamesB]

Btw. Tim Thomas is 37

[iamspuzzum]

I think there will be a higher chance Luongo would wave his no-trade if Canucks won the cup this season if the Canucks organization do ask him to wave it. However if we don't win the cup, I don't think he'll be willing to go elsewhere since we're still going to be strong contenders for the next couple to few years and you can tell Luongo wants to win.

I think moving Luongo would be the better option (assuming he accepts a trade). There's a risk in keeping Luongo for the future, he's already arguably somewhat inconsistent at times, known for allowing some weak goals here and there (not bashing him). If he starts going on a decline any time soon, his value would drop significantly and would be nearly impossible to move his contract out.

If we were to move him this off-season, I think we'd still get a good return. He still has years left in him and would be a goaltender some teams would want. Maybe there will be teams like Florida that need to reach the cap floor and needing a goalie would take Luongo, like people thought Campbell was impossible to move with his cap-hit but Florida took him and he's making an impact with them.

If we do trade Luongo, I think we could re-sign Schneider to a 3 or 4 year contract ranging from 3 to 3.5M per. That seems like a reasonable contract length and price for Schneider. I just hope Gillis' stays away from really long-term contracts like Luongo's in the future.

[ramone1984]

I think their values are categorically different, and I think each would return their like. To restate the obvious: Schneider is young and already very good. And he still has upside. But he's also relatively unproven. As an asset, his best features are his youth, his contract status and his upside. His downside is that he is unproven - much of his trade value is in an upside he may never attain. And so there's risk involved for buyers. Luongo is in the prime of his career - and perhaps nearing the end of it - but perhaps not. He is a proven workhorse. He is one of the greatest goalies of his generation. Buyers know what they will get: elite goaltending that gives them a chance to win 95% of the time between November and May. His downside is his contract, his age (and considerable baggage) and questions about his mental toughness and big game ability. I believe that each player would return something within their own category of value, which I have just restated above. So: Schneider would return either a young player on the verge of being stars or younger prospects with star potential, but who may not yet be NHL-ready. It's long been speculated on these boards what that kind of player would be. Some commonly forwarded names: Hedman, Brett Connolly, Bogosian, Alzner and John Carlson. Luongo would return a star. But there would likely be some issues associated with that player, whether it be inconsistency, an inflated contract or - as was the case with Mike Richards this past summer - a time for a break-up between player and organization, which can raise speculation over a host of issues including character and competitiveness. Off the top of my head, the following might be commensurable in value to Luongo: Mike Richards, a productive Jeff Carter, Thomas Vanek, a healthy Mike Green or a package of Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen and Alex Auld. If Luongo agreed to waive his NTC, I think there'd be interest in him. But Gillis would likely have to take back a contract the opposing GM would be happy to let go.

[Mookie Wilson]

Pretty well said. I still don't get why people think that Luongo has an inflated contract though...Every year the NHL cap seems to rise making Luongo's cap hit a smaller % of our overal cap available. You see it time and time again, longer contracts, assuming the player doesn't completely fall apart, seem really high at the beginning, but then when they re-sign their next contract, their original contract looked like a steal.

Think Marcus Naslund at 4 million. 6 years ago we threw Naslund under the bus for scoring at a point per game clip and being paid 4 million to do it.

4 million doesn't get you much these days, and it certainly won'tget you a ppg winger with Naslund pedigree. That's been true since his contract expired.

Luongo is still in his prime for likely 3-5 years at which point he'll probably slow down a bit. I guarantee that an elite goaltender will cost a lot more than $5.25 cap hit at that point. Even today, you wouldn't be able to sign a goalie like Luongo to a contract with his cap hit.

I will grant that during the late years of his contract, if his play falls off drastically and he's not able to keep up, it might be a bit of a crummy situation. Best case and most likely scenario, Luongo would retire thus removing his cap from the books. Alternatively, he could be a higher paid back up; didn't Chicago win a cup with Huet toiling somewhere in Europe? There are ways of working the cap. Worst case scenario, we have to buy out his contract. Rangers have done that recently and they seem to be doing alright.

Who knows, maybe Luongo keeps his elite form into his older years ala Hasek, Tomas, etc.

People reference Luongo's contract like it's a Brian Campbell contract. It's not that bad, and you know what? Campbell isn't doing all that bad with his change of scenary, and he's got a cup ring to boot!

***For the record, I think you're bang on with your assessment of Schneiders value. However, barring a short list of untouchables like Crosby, Luongo could be the center piece in a deal for any player in the league. Disparaging his contract or claiming he has mental issues doesn't change the fact that he's a franchise player, no two ways about it. He'll garner a franchise player in return, not an average 1st liner or average top defender. (Obviously the trading partner needs to need a goalie)

Cheers,

Ramone

[ramone1984]

Well, first, thanks for the compliment and the reply.

Second, it seems that we're in disagreement concerning Luongo's value. You are right that we likely could not get a goalie of Luongo's calibre at an equivalent cap hit. But that's not because Luongo's contract is a good deal - it's because the NHL closed the loophole on long-term, front-loaded, cap friendly contracts.

Luongo's deal is not a good one. If you look at the details, you'll note his annual salary for the first 8 years of his contract (7.125M) makes him the League's highest paid goalie over that span. In other words, Luongo is slated to be the League's highest goalie through his 38th birthday. You noted he will likely decline in 3-5 years. He is projected to still be the League's highest paid goalie after 5 years.

In comparison, Henrik Lundqvist makes an average of 6.875M over 6 years. Assumedly, if Lundqvist had signed an 8 year deal instead, he would have sacrificed a bit of salary over that time. Let's just trim that number down ever so marginally to 6.6M. And let's assume further that Lundvist - if he was the same age as Luongo - would've been glad to take a 12-year contract, even if it meant the last four years dipped in value to make his cap hit more manageable to the team. So let's say that after 8 years at 6.6M, Lundvist would've taken the same amount in the final four years of his contract as Luongo did in his. That amount is 7 million. So, working off Lundqvist's current salary, it follows that: if he had signed a 12 year deal his total contract value would be 59.8M - for a cap hit of just under 5M.

Anyhow, it's overly simplistic to say that Luongo's deal is a good one because of its relatively low cap hit. If he actually took a discount - even a slight discount - then he wouldn't have demanded being the League's highest paid goalie until the age of 38. And accordingly either his cap hit would be lower or his contract would be less than 12 years and of less total value, which would make it easier to move.

He may be a franchise player. But he has failed spectacularly in season-defining moments in each of the last 3 seasons. And given that history - and given this franchise has 3 excellent young goalies behind him -http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Canucks+high+goalie+Cannata+know+ordinary/6290732/story.html - it would be wise for Gillis to think long and hard about the possibility of trading Luongo. If Luongo can't play like a franchise player in this season's defining moments, I don't think he ever will.

Third - and this is just an FYI - Naslund made $6M per year in his final three years with the Canucks. And he wasn't a point-per-game player in those years. He accumulated 194 points over 245 games. 4M is what the Rangers paid him when he signed with them.