Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Edler's Mind Tricks

How Luongo's Contract Will Affect Trade Value... Not In The Way You Might Think.

124 posts in this topic

I never understood people hating Luongo's contract, 5.33 mil cap hit is a steal.

Either way, I still want Lu to stay, and to trade Schneider instead.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My question is this. If it was such a good deal why does everybody want him gone? Why trade a guy two years into a twelve year deal if it was a great deal?

And the one thing this article forgets to mention, as does pretty much everyone else, Luongo failed for years to get a weaker Panthers team into the playoffs. Does he really make a weaker team better? Is his 6.7 million over the next six years something a struggling team wants to commit to? His numbers now aren't as good as they were when he left Florida six years ago.

And whether we like it or not, Luongo doesn't have the best reputation throughout the league. Heck, he isn't very well liked in Vancouver. Loads of fans want him gone. Players who are pushed out of town don't usually command big packages.

I think a lot of people are hoping that something happens and a big package comes back but it likely won't happen. A low revenue team needs tp pay him 42 million dollars over six years. That's a lot for an aging goaltender who may be trending down. He did just lose his job.

Outside of Bryzgalov which goalie would you swap for Luongo in the playoffs right now? I don't think any of those seven teams would start Luongo and St. Louis probably wouldn't even dress him ahead of both of their guys.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its not really the cap hit which i think its reasonable. i think most people saying he's untradeable is because of the length of the contract. Having a contract for 11 years is way too long and you never know how a goalie will do in the future. When he's 40 years old his cap hit towards the team is still the same. Brodeur is not yet 40 and he's thinking of retiring.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with Offside SPorts, who apparently agrees with a post I made about a little over a year ago, maybe year and a half ago, that detailed the same things mentioned by this blog post. Not taking credit: but I do share the same mindset as the blogger on this.

5.33m puts luongo in the top ten paid goalies, and he is a top ten goalie. I am not arguing that he is number one, or needs top three status or money: but most people agree he is in the best half of starting goalies, and not the worst half.

The important thing is he was signed for the 10-11 season, but signed in 09-10 when his then cap hit was 6.75m: the current contract not only took a million and a half off that cap hit, it locked up a 'better than average' goalie for a full career in what was formerly known as "the goalie graveyard" of Vancouver.

Lastly, the cap has risen from 56.8m in 09-10 when the contract was negotiated to 64.3m this year, and may go up again next year...it will surely be higher by the end of Roberto's contract, regardless of what happens in the short term. 7.5m more room in the cap since the signing means that not only Roberto's contract is now 'free' compared to the cap when he was signed to it, but he is 'free with a side of free burrows' since the contracts were signed. In fact, if you include Cory in the picture, since 09-10, the cap has gone up by both goalies cap hit WITH an almost full burrows cap hit as well. The cap hit argument against the contract has no grounds to stand on, in my opinion.

Now as for if he gets traded, who would want his contract for another ten years at such a high hit? Well, there are a lot of have not teams out there looking to stay at the floor of the salary cap, or rather, just above it. IF in the unlikely event Luongo is going to be shopped, the salary cap hit of his contract is an issue: it is an issue of WANT TO HAVE IT for at least 7 teams in the league. 13 teams had salaries below 60m but the floor is 16m below the cap, so when the cap goes up, some teams Nashville, Winnipeg, Carolina, Dallas, Ottawa, the Islanders and Colorado will need to up their payroll what better than a 5.33m 'better than average' goalie? Now on top of that, your owner really only has to pay him the big bucks for 6 years then he is less paid real money on par with a good backup. Tradeability myth is really a non issue.

Lastly: Luongo is not worth having as a starter: I completely disagree with getting rid of Luongo, as I believe he IS a top ten goalie in the league, while Cory projects to one day maybe be a top ten goalie in the league. One in the hand, so to speak, is better than two in the bush. But its not my call, so I will watch to see what MG does. Either way, we have two good goalies, and I wish we would end up with both again next year.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its not really the cap hit which i think its reasonable. i think most people saying he's untradeable is because of the length of the contract. Having a contract for 11 years is way too long and you never know how a goalie will do in the future. When he's 40 years old his cap hit towards the team is still the same. Brodeur is not yet 40 and he's thinking of retiring.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, smart people already knew all of this, and dumb people can't understand it. His cap hit is a bargain and in a few years his actual salary will dip beneath his cap hit which will make it a bargain for the cost conscious GM. The term of the contract is a concern, but remember he becomes tradable at his own request in 2 yrs and no trade clause at all in 4 years. thank you for posting an intelligent article. A rarity amongst the garbage that floats around when there is no real news and teams like VAN, PIT,CHI,SJ and DET are out of the playoffs.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My question is this. If it was such a good deal why does everybody want him gone?

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A rarity amongst the garbage that floats around when there is no real news and teams like VAN, PIT,CHI,SJ and DET are out of the playoffs.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good article.

The downside to his contract is the tail end. There is no way he's worth that cap hit at 38 years old, much less 42.

But ... the overlooked point there is that it will be a tradable (and possibly valuable) contract.

Heres why:

1. This cap loophole (long contracts with cap buried in retirement years) will likely be closed in the new CBA which means these contracts will be rare.

2. These contracts are great for the poorer cap-floor teams. To have a 5.5 cap hit and a 1 or even 3 mil. salary is a dream for these teams. think about last summer when the panthers and others were scrambling to pickup enough salary to make the rising floor. For them to pick up cap hits greater than the salary would have been a dream and they are likely willing to pay something for that value--especially if there are a number of teams who want this and few of these contracts coming available.

3. In reality GMs only care so much about 10 years down the line anyways. They won't be around.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So lets keep him instead!!! I hope....

But people saying Schnieder will be cheaper, not by any significant amount that would be the difference between getting a top player and not....only gonna be a matter of 1.5mil max, probably less, of a cheaper contract....Fans think Lu's contract is preventing us from getting a Shea Weber and Schnieder will be soo much cheaper

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is true the salary cap going up does make Luongo more tradeable. Also, the fact the biggest part of his salary was paid in year one makes him more attractive for teams worried about cash and not just cap space.

However, that being said Luongo is a player already showing signs of decline at 33 and his failures in the playoffs have been noticed by others around the league. Roberto hasn't been the same goalie since he hurt his groin in 2008. Yes, he has still been good but he is no longer great.

In 2006/2007 Luongo was at his peak as a player and was absolutely great in the playoffs but in the playoffs since he has been very average. His save% in the playoffs excluding the 2006/2007 season is only .908 which by today's standards is average at best. I also think that .908 fairly reflects the inconsistency we have seen from Roberto during that time, I don't think he is a "choker" I just think the league knows that his lateral movement isn't what is use to be and takes advantage.

Going forward his contract therefore is still a concern because most scouts know Luongo's level of play has declined and have to be worried it will decline further.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If people still believe that Luongo is an elite goalie in this league, then a $5.33 mil cap hit is not only manageable, but attractive. The problem is, many people don't believe that Luongo is in that elite category anymore. His numbers this year were pretty bad, and that was with the best team in the league in front of him. He has collapsed in the playoffs every year for the past 3 years (excluding this year when Schneider stole the #1 job). He's not getting any younger either. Even if a team is still very interested after considering all that, they have to realize that if they make the trade, they're locked in in a big way. These facts are enough to make any GM pause.

Can the trade be done? Probably. Will we get a good return for Luongo? No.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If people still believe that Luongo is an elite goalie in this league, then a $5.33 mil cap hit is not only manageable, but attractive. The problem is, many people don't believe that Luongo is in that elite category anymore. His numbers this year were pretty bad, and that was with the best team in the league in front of him. He has collapsed in the playoffs every year for the past 3 years (excluding this year when Schneider stole the #1 job). He's not getting any younger either. Even if a team is still very interested after considering all that, they have to realize that if they make the trade, they're locked in in a big way. These facts are enough to make any GM pause.

Can the trade be done? Probably. Will we get a good return for Luongo? No.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is true the salary cap going up does make Luongo more tradeable. Also, the fact the biggest part of his salary was paid in year one makes him more attractive for teams worried about cash and not just cap space.

However, that being said Luongo is a player already showing signs of decline at 33 and his failures in the playoffs have been noticed by others around the league. Roberto hasn't been the same goalie since he hurt his groin in 2008. Yes, he has still been good but he is no longer great.

In 2006/2007 Luongo was at his peak as a player and was absolutely great in the playoffs but in the playoffs since he has been very average. His save% in the playoffs excluding the 2006/2007 season is only .908 which by today's standards is average at best. I also think that .908 fairly reflects the inconsistency we have seen from Roberto during that time, I don't think he is a "choker" I just think the league knows that his lateral movement isn't what is use to be and takes advantage.

Going forward his contract therefore is still a concern because most scouts know Luongo's level of play has declined and have to be worried it will decline further.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you for posting that....good read.

All I care about is that when one of our goalies gets traded, that we end up with a gamebreaker coming back to the Canucks. MG has a chance to significantly improve this teams chances of winning the Cup if he can spin one of these goalies into one or more pieces that can help the team be a force for a few more years.

If we keep Luo, I would want a player or players that can improve the defense because Luongo coughs up rebounds. If we keep Schneider, I would want to get a big forward like Nash so that our top 2 lines improve. Both goalies have their strengths and weaknesses but either one is a goalie that you can win with.

Luongo's cap hit is only an issue with a team that doesn't have cap space. That said, my gut feeling is that it will be Schneider that gets traded. One of the reasons for this is that he doesn't have to submit a list of teams that he is willing to go to and is younger plus his numbers are just as good as Luo.. The team trading for him is also in control of the new contract being signed. The downside of trading Schneider in a one for one trade is that you don't free up cap space to accomodate a gamebreaker with a big contract coming to Vancouver. You would have to have a multi player trade such as Higgins, Raymond and Schneider for Nash and their 1st round pick in this years draft. The difference in cap hit would be made up by the cap increase limit.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

he was the goalie of a team who made it to the SCF game 7 with 2 shutouts in that series just a season ago...and here you are telling people Luongo had been on decline since what..? 2008?

Cdc fans always treat out players like a computer game and forgot players DO have off years.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who was Mike Smith before he came to Phoenix? Bryzgalov was an MVP candidate before leaving Phoenix. Imagine Luongo on a team coached by Tippett, Trotz or Hitchcock.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, smart people already knew all of this, and dumb people can't understand it. His cap hit is a bargain and in a few years his actual salary will dip beneath his cap hit which will make it a bargain for the cost conscious GM. The term of the contract is a concern, but remember he becomes tradable at his own request in 2 yrs and no trade clause at all in 4 years. thank you for posting an intelligent article. A rarity amongst the garbage that floats around when there is no real news and teams like VAN, PIT,CHI,SJ and DET are out of the playoffs.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.