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Oil Prices To Double By 2022, Imf Paper Warns


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#1 key2thecup

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 02:43 PM

Oil prices to double by 2022, IMF paper warns



Oil prices could double over the next decade with sweeping implications for the global economy, according to a report commissioned by the International Monetary Fund.





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As oil prices remain at historically high levels of around $110 (£68) a barrel, the working paper warned a combination of rising demand and constrained supply could have major consequences.


"Our prediction of small further increases in world oil production comes at the expense of a near doubling, permanently, of real oil prices over the coming decade," the report's authors concluded.


"This is uncharted territory for the world economy, which has never experienced such prices for more than a few months."


They said that research suggested energy accounted for up to 50pc of overall gross domestic product, meaning "the implications of lower oil output growth for GDP could be very large."


Persistently high oil prices are already threatening the global economic recovery according to a director of the International Energy Agency.

Maria van der Hoeven said that although prices had eased somewhat in recent weeks, the threat of heightened political tension over Iran, limited spare production capacity, and unplanned supply outages remained.

"Prices remain very high," she told a conference in Australia. "High prices pose a real threat to the economic recovery."

Brent crude oil spiked to above $120 a barrel in the early part of 2012 but was trading yesterday at about $110 a barrel. That was the lowest since January, but still very high by historical standards.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9265272/Oil-prices-to-double-by-2022-IMF-paper-warns.html



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#2 Shift-4

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 02:47 PM

Yeah, so.........they have more than quadrupled in the last 10 years.
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#3 WeatherWise

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 03:19 PM

We'd better get Tom Cruise and the Impossible Missions Force on it right away.
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#4 D-Money

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 03:43 PM

Dam those International MotherF****rs
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#5 ronthecivil

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 04:01 PM

Meanwhile, ecozealots across the country try to shut down our oil industry (which happens to be one of the few good ones we have at the moment).

Which is ironic, given that high prices will make things like solar power viable economically based on market conditions, with no need to put in subsidies or any sort of government program, at all.

#6 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 04:17 PM

Hahaha we will see I recall worrying about running out of gas in the Seventies

#7 :D

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 04:32 PM

Can somebody just invent gravity inversion and matter/antimatter propulsion already?
Jesus Christ, get your act together scientists!

#8 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 04:42 PM

Can somebody just invent gravity inversion and matter/antimatter propulsion already?
Jesus Christ, get your act together scientists!

damn nerds. Whoever finds the answer for that will be the richest person In the world....well until someone ccreates a legal synthetic coke for the worlds coke heads

#9 CaNuCkSLoUiE23

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 04:45 PM

But I thought the world was supposed to end this year.....

#10 :D

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 04:46 PM

Hahaha we will see I recall worrying about running out of gas in the Seventies


At this point, I think running out of fossil fuels will do more good than harm.

#11 BurnabyJoe

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:13 PM

Wow driving blows.

I don't know why anyone buys a truck for pleasure anymore.
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#12 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:29 PM

At this point, I think running out of fossil fuels will do more good than harm.

Yes you are probably correct iit would Force the energy sector to find greener alternatives. They would have found a alternative by now, hell they probably already did but said **** this! profit margins are not high enough

#13 nwo

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:35 PM

I miss the 39.9 gas war days like back in '97, hope it happens again

#14 Heretic

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:39 PM

Wow driving blows.

I don't know why anyone buys a truck for pleasure anymore.


Here's mine with my pleasure - this is the pleasure you're talking about - right? :)

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#15 butters

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:45 PM

Try to solve it ont he supply side all you want - you can't. There are more middle class Chinese than all americans, and they want gas too. And that's just China. No tar sands or other new oil discoveries will change this.

#16 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:46 PM

Here's mine with my pleasure - this is the pleasure you're talking about - right? :)

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hey at least you aren't pullin a 40 footer! People.... Camping should be small simple tents not 40 ft second homes with satellite dishes and ****

#17 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 06:14 PM

Can somebody just invent gravity inversion and matter/antimatter propulsion already?
Jesus Christ, get your act together scientists!


why ? there is no money in that . you are better off designing and manufacturing weapons to kill ourselves with , that is where the real money is !

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#18 Mr. Ambien

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 06:43 PM

The prices for supposed demand for oil certainly isn't coming from the west. In fact in the big ol' USA demand for crude was very low.

The issue exacerbating high cost is fiat currency, the fact that the US dollar is losing value rapidly, the loonie is as well but not at such a frenetic pace.

Edited by zaibatsu, 14 May 2012 - 06:44 PM.


#19 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 07:01 PM

The big problem is china and those countries before you would go there and see bikes carts now you go there and automobiles everywhere

#20 Standing_Tall#37

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 07:20 PM

Lmao, even if so gas will only be 3-4 bucks a litre

#21 Armada

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 07:31 PM

F*** it.

I'll still pay for it. I love driving and I love my car.

But on a side note, the only reason I support electric cars is so the demand is lowered meaning the gas prices get lowered.

I just think its ridiculous for having the price so high, greedy arses. Oil won't run out anytime soon in our lifetime or in the future after that.

Edited by warmplate, 14 May 2012 - 07:32 PM.

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#22 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 07:49 PM

F*** it.

I'll still pay for it. I love driving and I love my car.

But on a side note, the only reason I support electric cars is so the demand is lowered meaning the gas prices get lowered.

I just think its ridiculous for having the price so high, greedy arses. Oil won't run out anytime soon in our lifetime or in the future after that.

electric car won't change the price of oil it would do the opposite raise it. Why lower it when you can just raise it to make up for losses? Especially when it seems the new greener option for autos is more expensive with each advancement in technology.

#23 ccc44

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 08:30 PM

more then a hounded years of relying on gas and we cant find an alternative that would be sufficient for everyone ?
I really find that hard to believe being that everything else seems to be able to evolve
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#24 naslund.is.king

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 08:42 PM

more then a hounded years of relying on gas and we cant find an alternative that would be sufficient for everyone ?
I really find that hard to believe being that everything else seems to be able to evolve

lol I am sure they have found solutions but they just aren't as profitable as oil

Edited by naslund.is.king, 14 May 2012 - 08:43 PM.


#25 Buggernut

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 08:46 PM

Are they any closer to making controlled fusion a reality?

I wonder if there are any industry lobbies suppressing this kind of research.

#26 Vanuck14

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 08:47 PM

I miss the 39.9 gas war days like back in '97, hope it happens again


Haha, so do I!

#27 Buggernut

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 08:55 PM

I miss the 39.9 gas war days like back in '97, hope it happens again


Can you say COLLUSION?

I knew you could.

#28 YaK

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 10:50 PM

OIl = Gasoline...

But oil is also a lot of other things too:

*Synthetics
- We use petrochemicals in everything it seems. Ink, packaging, clothing, drugs, cleaning agents, FOOD... consumer products of all varieties. It seems that everything you touch is somehow derived from oil.
Your cotton T-Shirt? The dye is likely synthetic.
Your bottle of Happy Planet juice? The bottle still contains hydrocarbons that were distilled out of black gold.
That bottle of beer you just drank? Hops sprayed with lovely pesticides derived from oil.
Your smartphone? You'd better believe that thing is full of oily awesomeness.
That white vinegar you just put on your fries (mercifully cooked in sunflower oil)? Yummy.
Etc. Etc. Etc.

*Necessary for Transporting Goods
- diesel fuel, heavy fuel, jet fuel... I work on a moderately sized freighter transporting 25000 Tonnes of cargo such as grain (i.e. Food). Our estimated fuel usage in ONE DAY is approximately 20 tonnes. To reiterate: TWENTY TONNES of heavy fuel oil a day on average for a ship with about 1/7th the cargo capacity of one of those freighters sitting in English Bay (and that doesn't include diesel fuel for our generators). Despite that, in some circles ships are still considered the most efficient means of transporting some of these goods vs the amount of fuel used.

The point being that if oil prices continue to shoot for heights way beyond anything we've seen before you are going to feel it in a lot more places than just at the gas station. Even if magically we all figured out that we don't really need to drive anywhere there are still plenty of other ways this would bite your wallet. This is a problem that goes way beyond the narrow view most people have.
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#29 Amish Rake Fighter

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 10:55 PM

Meanwhile, ecozealots across the country try to shut down our oil industry (which happens to be one of the few good ones we have at the moment).


From what I understand, a good chunk of the money behind domestic enviroscare comes from US foundations that appear to want to cripple our energy industry, it gets filtered through Canadian foundations like David Suzuki's so it's harder to connect the dots.

I'll see if I can find some of the articles, I heard about it a few years ago and didn't think much about it but there was something recently that may have had something to do with him resigning from his own foundation.

#30 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 15 May 2012 - 02:43 AM

Are they any closer to making controlled fusion a reality?

I wonder if there are any industry lobbies suppressing this kind of research.


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Hydrogen, helium with up to 5 % hydrogen, then deuterium, and eventually the "actual fusion fuels", deuterium and tritium in equal proportion. On its way to full deuterium-tritium operation, ITER will experiment with a succession of plasma fuels.


On its way to full deuterium-tritium operation, ITER will experiment with a succession of "non-nuclear" plasma fuels.

Spread over a period of roughly seven years, hydrogen, helium (with a variable proportion of hydrogen) and deuterium campaigns—interspersed with maintenance and upgrade periods—will provide operators with the necessary know-how to run the machine, commission its components, and control its plasma before entering nuclear operation.


Neither hydrogen nor helium will "activate" the machine, allowing manned access into the vacuum vessel until deuterium operations begin in late 2026 or early 2027.

First Plasma, scheduled in November 2020, will use hydrogen. "It is presently defined as a 'minimal plasma' of a few-hundred-milliseconds duration with approximately 100 kAmps of current intensity," explains David Campbell, Director of the ITER Directorate for Plasma Operation.

This inaugural plasma will be run in a rather "bare" machine: no divertor or shielding blankets will have yet been installed. "We will just have poloidally distributed structures to protect the diagnostic systems and other elements on the vacuum vessel inner wall," says David.

First Plasma will be followed by a one-month-long campaign of short-duration plasma pulses (perhaps several seconds in length), during which the goal will be to increase the current intensity progressively to one to two MAmps.



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A plasma in TEXTOR (Tokamak Experiment for Technology Oriented Research) operating at Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany.

By March 2023, ITER will be ready to begin its experimental program, based initially on running hydrogen or helium plasmas. The "non-active" campaign will last about three years. As plasmas are created at a rate of twenty to thirty per day, systems will be tested, operators trained and more components commissioned.


Why helium? The reason lies in the mysteries of the H-mode (H for High), the sudden improvement of plasma confinement and the disappearance of edge turbulence that occurs in toroidal configurations. While all tokamaks today are designed to operate in H-mode, the understanding of the physics behind the phenomenon is still incomplete.


"We want to know what an H-mode plasma looks like at the ITER scale," explains David. "And we want H-mode in order to get ELMs and demonstrate that we can control them."

For reasons that are complex and not fully understood, it requires less heating power to get into H-mode with helium than it does with hydrogen. As not all heating systems will be operational when ITER enters its experimental program, helium is a good compromise.


"Ideally, we would have used hydrogen, but with only 60MW of heating power installed at that stage, creating H-modes in hydrogen would be marginal. Helium is not ideal but it should allow us to demonstrate ELM control."


Posted Image
In 2002, the CEA-Euratom Tokamak Tore Supra, located in Cadarache, achieved a record 6.5-minute-long deuterium plasma discharge.

Helium plasmas (with a small percentage of hydrogen) will also make it easier to commission the Ion Cyclotron Radiofrequency (ICRF) heating system. "Ion cyclotron waves are not absorbed very well in pure hydrogen plasmas," says David. "When you use helium and a minority of hydrogen, up to 5 percent, you get much better results..."


By early 2026 the hydrogen, helium and "minority hydrogen" phases will be complete, and most components installed and commissioned. ITER will be ready for the transition to nuclear operation.


This transition will require a pre-nuclear shutdown—lasting about nine months, this will be the last opportunity for performing manned operations inside the machine, fixing what must be fixed and installing new components if needed.

In the deuterium-only (DD) phase that will follow, fusion reactions in the plasmas will be sufficiently numerous to begin activating the inner components of the vacuum vessel. The DD plasmas will closely mimic many aspects of the behaviour of the next-stage deuterium-tritium (DT) plasmas, including H-mode.


"Toward the end of 2027, we should be able to feed trace amounts of tritium into the plasma," explains David. "The first significant flux of high energy (14 MeV) neutrons will be produced, giving us important indications on how tritium propagates into the plasma."

"Q" symbolizes the ratio of fusion power to input power. "Q ≥ 10," which is ITER's objective, means that the burning plasma will generate at least ten times more power than will be needed to "ignite" it. In JET and the US tokamak TFTR, Q remained under 1. ITER will be the first fusion experiment to produce net energy. As the proportion of tritium is progressively increased, more fusion power will be produced. "Within four to six months, we aim to be able to demonstrate Q = 10 for several tens of seconds. This, however, is not yet the full mission goal: we will need time to learn how to handle long pulses in order to achieve the project's objective of sustaining Q = 10 for periods of 300 to 500 seconds."

At this point, following a scheduled shutdown in mid-2028, ITER, in accordance with the ITER Licence will still have about ten years of planned experimental activity ahead—time enough to develop even longer pulses (up to 3,000 seconds); explore the possibility of higher Q plasmas; and, among several other challenges, develop plasma regimes using DEMO-relevant components and concepts.


The project's lifespan, however, could be extended beyond 2037: "Obviously," says David, "if the Members agree on the continued usefulness of the ITER device beyond its mission goals—and if the French Safety Authority gives a green light—it may be decided, at some point, to extend the Operations Phase



this was an article from the IKER newsletter dated 04/05/2012 . gives a few dates and timelines .i find this a fascinating field of endeavour , and it seems like one of the better answers to our need for clean , sustainable energy

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