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AV and Cognitive Bias-by Jeff Angus


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#31 Canucklehead420

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 11:47 AM

This statement is absolutely correct!!
We should have scored 9 goals in game 3, 5 goals in game 4, 6 goals in game 6, and 4 goals in game 7 against Boston!!


that or you know actually back check and play a little D. Lu has to take his share of the blame as does Vigeault, the D the forwards, the guy that rubs them down after the game.

#32 dorrcoq

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 12:41 PM

Yawn

#33 DIBdaQUIB

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 12:44 PM

that or you know actually back check and play a little D. Lu has to take his share of the blame as does Vigeault, the D the forwards, the guy that rubs them down after the game.


It's not about the number of goals. It was the timing and nature of them last year that has many losing confidence in Lu.

He didn't come up with the timely save and let in too many "soft" goals early or at crucial times. Team confidence was shattered and it was lights out from there.

#34 Iron_Gland

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 01:58 PM

The thing with AV and winning all these division titles and presidents trophies...it's not like he was coaching a Calgary Flames-esque team that produced beyond their talents...he's got one of the most talented teams in franchise history with an owner willing to spend money and a GM willing to make changes. For three years we've been told we're a top contender for the cup, and he hasn't gotten it done. ANYONE can coach this team to the presidents trophy...there's far too much talent not to. But it's going to take another coach altogether to win it in the playoffs, because AV has zero adjustment abilities when times get tough.

#35 Hyzer

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 01:59 PM

Playoffs > Regular Season. AV is a regular season coach.

#36 smackyo23

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 02:05 PM

I didn't read it all, but I think AV is a good coach who deserves a couple more years. If by the end of the next two we're not seeing any results - then it's time for him to go.


By the end of a couple more years, this teams window is DONE.
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#37 CANUCKLELION

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 03:12 PM

Half full or half empty?

AV is the only Canuck coach to have failed in back to back games to win the Cup. (Games 6 + 7 vs the B's last year.)

I say empty based on his 1 + 6 record in his last 7 playoff games.
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#38 Vansicle

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 04:01 PM

It's not about the number of goals. It was the timing and nature of them last year that has many losing confidence in Lu.

He didn't come up with the timely save and let in too many "soft" goals early or at crucial times. Team confidence was shattered and it was lights out from there.

Here, here.

And you could see it in their faces when the shooting gallery(ies) started; they were deflated to be sure. Who wouldn't be?

Snake Doctor, on 23 May 2014 - 10:41 AM, said:snapback.png

Miller is not on our list. It's Lack as our #1. There is no reason we would have traded both Schnieder and Luongo if we never intended to give Lack the #1 starting job.  Furthermore, the salary and term Miller is looking for is not in our favor.

 


#39 E-ROD

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 04:38 PM

The skies were full of clouds and birds, all basking in the glory of the sun.

#40 tj1990

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 06:00 PM

Speaking about social psychology terms (and books), it's important to note that Khaneman (Thinking Fast & Slow) and other well documented authors highlight the importance and enormous role that luck and chance play in major events (Canucks' EX: Game 5 Stanchion). They note, that too often we over-attribute the immense and powerful role of luck to skill and that our society is built around an illusion of control and skill in terms of monetary rewards for high paying jobs (they note that Wall Street was essentially a game of Roulette, with some bets--stocks--working out and others falling through).

Nothing really to add, but who knows, maybe if the Canucks were luckier in game 7 last year, teams would be trying to re-model around a finesse and possession game instead of the Bruins rough and tumble mantra(i.e. Canucks' knee-jerk reaction to last years loss by trying to get tougher with players like Kassian).

#41 BenSurgeon

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 06:45 PM

I will not agrue against AV's regular season coaching record as it stands on its own is great. I do think that he was out coach twice by Chicago in the playoffs 2 years in a row and almost again last year as he let Chicago back in the first round series after being up 3 games to 0. The OT goal in game 7 by Burrows saved his a$$, otherwise he came that close to going out in the first round. Then I agree with the poster that he was out coached in the Boston series. Not able to adjust to Bostons style of play and keeping Roberto in goal too long in all three of the games in Boston. Then again this year, well I won't mention that I will leave that up to you. Anyhow I have watched hockey long enough to know sometimes there are great regular season coaches but are unable to win the big games. Until I have been proven wrong and I hope I am worng on this one, AV is that type of a coach.
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#42 BedBeats™2.0

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 08:13 PM

TLDR but when it comes down to it.

AV chokes in the playoffs and this team needs someone to jumpstart them and act like a leader when they are tail spining.

Instead of making adjustments during the game, he just lets the "guys figure it out"....

Sorry but AV should have been fired.

You fall under the AFFECT HEURISTIC cognitive bias.

Good work!

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#43 Sedinery22

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 04:27 AM

Half full or half empty?

AV is the only Canuck coach to have failed in back to back games to win the Cup. (Games 6 + 7 vs the B's last year.)

I say empty based on his 1 + 6 record in his last 7 playoff games.



well if you count the whole SCF and then this season's playoffs, the record would be 4-8...so half empty/ half fulll. i don't know wtf your talking about so...please do explain

#44 Sedinery22

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 04:40 AM

well if you count the whole SCF and then this season's playoffs, the record would be 4-8...so half empty/ half fulll. i don't know wtf your talking about so...please do explain



better yet count the record for all last year's playoffs, beat chicago in 7 (4 -3 ), nashville in 6 (4-2) san jose in 5 (4-1), lost to boston (3-4), the record last season was 15-10 add in this year's playoffs.... L.a won (3-4)......the record stands now 16-15...and oh yeah and we lost to Stanley Cups Champions.....so i'd say the glass is half full there bud

#45 CANUCKLELION

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 10:05 AM

well if you count the whole SCF and then this season's playoffs, the record would be 4-8...so half empty/ half fulll. i don't know wtf your talking about so...please do explain


I'm not sure what exactly you need me to expand on, but I will try to explain.

Most AV supporters point to his 2 Presidents Trophy wins as well as his Canuck best regular season coaching record to reinforce the theory that AV is the best coach to take the Nuck's to a SC win. ergo the half full glass.


As you pointed out , AV has lost 2/3 of his last 12 playoff games, so I would say he does not sport the best Canuck playoff coaching record or seems to fail in the playoffs so he is not the best coach to take the Nuck's to a SC win. ergo The glass is half empty.
AV's regular season record = the glass is half full
AV's playoff record = the glass is half empty
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#46 Puckster

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 10:51 AM

I compare a Hockey team to a linked chain. What are the weakest links that the opposition can exploit at any given time?
In My Humble Opinion:
It's not the Coach (altho he may blunder a few times , we are all Human)
It's hard to nail down because it could be anyone at any given time.
Lou has shined at most times, but has moments where he lapsed
Scheider the same

Team health going into the post season has been a MAJOR factor the last 3 years (or should I say , the lack thereof)

I like MG's attitude , that if a deal makes the Nucks better, he is going for it. It takes assets to get assets, I for one am looking forward to seeing what gains we can make this summer!!!

My wish for the Nucks is to get Bigger and Meaner!!!

#47 Puck'nAnimal

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 06:23 PM

Speaking about social psychology terms (and books), it's important to note that Khaneman (Thinking Fast & Slow) and other well documented authors highlight the importance and enormous role that luck and chance play in major events (Canucks' EX: Game 5 Stanchion). They note, that too often we over-attribute the immense and powerful role of luck to skill and that our society is built around an illusion of control and skill in terms of monetary rewards for high paying jobs (they note that Wall Street was essentially a game of Roulette, with some bets--stocks--working out and others falling through).

Nothing really to add, but who knows, maybe if the Canucks were luckier in game 7 last year, teams would be trying to re-model around a finesse and possession game instead of the Bruins rough and tumble mantra(i.e. Canucks' knee-jerk reaction to last years loss by trying to get tougher with players like Kassian).


If you're talking about Daniel Kahneman theory of Luck in Investing; it's not a matter of control and skill...it's knowledge of the markets and how they perform and making decisions based on that trend. Yes, anyone can get lucky, but unless you have a prior knowledge of how the game is played, you're not going to meet with continuing success. With regards to luck and hockey, the teams that work at accomplishing their tasks on the ice will develop their own luck. Opportunities will present themselves if the team works hard and capitalizes on the chances. Over the past three years, it seems as though the teams that played more physical got farther ahead in the playoffs. Gillis' mantra of "We're going to stick with what we are doing" didn't work. That's why they're having to revisit remodeling the physicality of the team since the team was getting physically dominated against. We don't know if the finesse and possession game would have flourished with a Canuck victory because it didn't happen. That's hypothesizing a non-event.

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#48 newgm

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 11:49 PM

I compare a Hockey team to a linked chain. What are the weakest links that the opposition can exploit at any given time?
In My Humble Opinion:
It's not the Coach (altho he may blunder a few times , we are all Human)
It's hard to nail down because it could be anyone at any given time.
Lou has shined at most times, but has moments where he lapsed
Scheider the same

Team health going into the post season has been a MAJOR factor the last 3 years (or should I say , the lack thereof)

I like MG's attitude , that if a deal makes the Nucks better, he is going for it. It takes assets to get assets, I for one am looking forward to seeing what gains we can make this summer!!!

My wish for the Nucks is to get Bigger and Meaner!!!


MG has already made the biggest mistake he'll ever make as Canuck GM, which was not hiring his own coach and hanging on to the coach that got Nonis fired by missing the playoffs, with maybe not the most talented Canucks team that year, but one which should have made the playoffs.

We'll never know if we would have won a cup with a different coach, one that actually communicated with his players, but chances are that we would have won at least one cup and even if we hadn't, I truly doubt we could have consistently lost in a more humiliating fashion (pick your series, any playoff elimination in the last 5 years) than the AV coached no shows we've had to endure.

Some of us think it matters how you lose and under this coach we lost ugly time and time again regardless of how talented the team became over time. No matter how many players came and went, the only common denominator, the only constant was AV who seems incapable of making adjustments in the playoffs and who is consistently accused of being outcoached in the playoffs. We're not just talking about a Michael Buble comment, but literally hundreds of life long diehard fans, many of whom have played and coached the game.

So I respectfully disagree, I think the weakest link is AV, if I'm wrong and the AV supporters are right and AV is such a great coach why was AV extended for only two more years not five? After all he's the winningest coach of all time right? except when it counts!

#49 Canvoucer Vanuck

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 03:12 AM

Good post, thanks for sharing.
RIP LB28, RR37 and PD38... Forever a Canuck
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#50 Bananas

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 03:19 AM

See, articles like this are written and stupid people just gobble it up. I stopped reading in the playing favorites section because it was much of the same false information. "Av rewards performance"

Tell Mason Raymond that AV rewards performance :rolleyes:

I can't read drivel like this anymore, and it's kind of sickening that people buy this crap cuz someone tells them to...
Hey CDC! Remember this!?

http://forum.canucks...in-this-change/

#51 Canucklehead73

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 10:52 AM

The only problem with AV most people have is the fact he can't adjust within games


This is what I see in the playoffs, when scouting makes it money and teams have a gameplan in place to beat us, AV just stands there chewing his gum watching his team give it up for long stretches. There is no time outs, no anger or passion, just gum chewing. We all understand game face and all that stuff, but if your losing you have to make an adjustment, and I'm talking breakouts, strategy on dump-ins, different D-zone clearing plays... Not putting a different player with the sedins. It's not enough.
Go Canucks Go!

#52 G-52

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 12:09 PM

OP: Good post, agree.

REST: You are selfish ingrateful whining babies who cant even spend TWO minutes reading a long post but still feel the need to respond to it without knowing what its even about? There is so much stuff to do in your day that you read the entire forum but skip all the posts that actually have content because you dislike reading, cant read, or are just too ???? ignorant. SERIOUSLY? You are the type of person that does not belong in the world, you are the type of person that I hope kills themselves doing something stupid so the human race becomes stronger instead of dumber.

TLDR: LEARN TO ???? READ ASSHOLES

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#53 prana16

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 01:23 PM

This statement is absolutely correct!!
We should have scored 9 goals in game 3, 5 goals in game 4, 6 goals in game 6, and 4 goals in game 7 against Boston!!


They only needed to do one of those. Luongo took care of the 3 other required games with 2 shutouts and an overtime win.

You would think that was doable for the best offensive team in the league, two art ross winners and another 30 goal scorer(Bur) and another 40 goal scorer(kes) and a 25 goal scorer (raymond).

Thats what boston had to do against tampa in one of the four games that thomas crapped the bed in the east finals.

#54 CB007

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 01:51 PM

Team GP G A P +/- PIM PP SH GW S S%
Canucks 43 4 6 10 -4 46 1 0 1 42 9.5 - Aaron Rome's Stats for 2011-2012

Dan Gardner - Explain please?


Rome didn't play in the playoffs against LA. His stats were very good last year so he got lots of ice time.
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#55 CB007

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 02:03 PM

This is what I see in the playoffs, when scouting makes it money and teams have a gameplan in place to beat us, AV just stands there chewing his gum watching his team give it up for long stretches. There is no time outs, no anger or passion, just gum chewing. We all understand game face and all that stuff, but if your losing you have to make an adjustment, and I'm talking breakouts, strategy on dump-ins, different D-zone clearing plays... Not putting a different player with the sedins. It's not enough.


When your record is as successful as the Canucks', you, for better or worse, have a tendency to stick with it in adversity. Think of Junior Dos Santos from UFC for instance. If somebody is beating him standing up, does he go to the ground? How can he go to the ground when he has been cleaning up the heavy weight division by standing up and boxing? Would it be better to adjust to a style on the fly that you are not familiar with? Or can you just perform better with the method that you know?? Changing on the fly is tempting and often not as rewarding as you might think. Perhaps abandoning your game plan is exactly what your opponent wants you to do.

Now what AV and the Canucks should have is a well practiced Plan B. That's what regular season is for for a contender like us. We are so keen on doing well in the regular season to take home ice advantage in the playoffs that we did not want to risk losing any points to practice a Plan B. I think they have to do that this year, along with mixing up the lines and D pairing, play the backup more big games (which we did last year but Schneider is an easy choice to start), give some games to the kids and other marginal 4th line grinders, and give guys like Kassian and Gragnani more ice time.

Take some risks to be more 'Plan B ready', and not be so stingy and follow the 'every regular season point matters' philosophy.
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#56 Canvoucer Vanuck

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 02:26 PM

TLDR: LEARN TO ???? READ ASSHOLES

LOL u mad?

Now what AV and the Canucks should have is a well practiced Plan B. That's what regular season is for for a contender like us. We are so keen on doing well in the regular season to take home ice advantage in the playoffs that we did not want to risk losing any points to practice a Plan B. I think they have to do that this year, along with mixing up the lines and D pairing, play the backup more big games (which we did last year but Schneider is an easy choice to start), give some games to the kids and other marginal 4th line grinders, and give guys like Kassian and Gragnani more ice time.

Take some risks to be more 'Plan B ready', and not be so stingy and follow the 'every regular season point matters' philosophy.


Agreed. I know it's his job to win, but at times I feel like AV places more importance on racking up regular season points and getting that 1st seed than preparing this team for the playoffs. Instead we should really be focussing on how to get better and more prepared so that in the playoffs when one thing doesn't work we aren't stuck with only 1 way to do things, like scoring goals or transitioning up the ice.

If, in the process we win a President's Trophy, sure that's great but I don't want us to overexert ourselves just to win it. E.g if we're tied in the 3rd period against a strong team, just keep rolling the lines and put some damn trust in your 4th liners to come up with a big goal. Who cares? And look at LAK's road record: 10-1. You do not need home ice every single round as long as you play well on the road and finish your series early.
RIP LB28, RR37 and PD38... Forever a Canuck
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#57 oldnews

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Posted 17 June 2012 - 08:22 PM

Sounds like Angus has been peeking in on CDC and the Province and noting the tiring tendencies of posters/"journalists".
Good stuff.




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