Posted 26 June 2012 - 04:55 PM
Three things common that I find among a large contingent of CDC posters is as follows:
1. A penchant for snap/rash decisions based purely on emotion and/or not fully formed opinion. Anybody willing to "dump Luongo for a 7th round pick so we can get out of his contract" is guilty of this one. Luongo is still a top goalie and, compensation wise, is not overpaid if you look at the full sample size. Yes, it is for a lot of years, but that is, in part, because it is one of those circumvention contracts. Luongo turns any team, at the very least, into a perennial playoff threat. Once you make the playoffs, anything can happen. Luongo has significant value.
This is business. Don't let emotions get in the way, otherwise you are lost.
2. A severe overvaluing of prospects. Prospects are awesome, you can dream and hope on them. They get the blood flowing. We all know what we will get with Kesler, but who knows what Bjugstad may be! Right? He may even be better!
Well, yes, he may. But he may not.
Imagine a scenario a couple years ado where we could have traded him for Cam Barker, Al Montoya, Rob Schremp, Gilbert Brule, Ryan Parent, Matt Lashoff.... A couple of years ago this would have looked like highway robbery. Now? Not so much.
Bjugstad has a chance at becoming better than Kesler. He has a very good chance of becoming nobody anybody cares about. Prospect flame out.
A good idea for determining prospect value: Do it how game theorists calculate risk. I will use EA Sports style ratings to keep things simple.
A player in his prime has a rating of 84. A prospect has a rating of 70 (not as good right now) has a 50% chance of being rated 92 (much better). What that prospects value should be to you? Half way (50%) between the two numbers or only 81. Any accomplished game theorist and mathematician with those numbers would not make that trade.
3. This one is more annoying. I've seen it many times. A rumor or report says the asking price for Luongo is Bujdstad++ and all of a sudden people start pulling in player from all over like Kesler and Raymond and Tanev and and for Bjugstad and players far better than him. This frustrating.
This is the same as walking into a store to buy a toaster and end up leaving with a big screen TV, new cutlery, a new bedroom set, no pants and a massive hole in your wallet. Most likely? You just get the toaster. Sometimes other players are included. They are called throw-ins for a reason, non-core, non valued players used to balance out perceived unbalanced scenarios and make the numbers work.
And importantly, I see a whole lot of turd polishing in here. If you are trading a guy 'to get rid of him', then any information you put as positives for why the other team even wants him do not matter. If he was as good as you make him out to be, you would keep him, you wouldn't just 'get rid of him'.
My personal belief? Luongo for a bluechip prospect, a serviceable player and a pick. If we add anything in it wouldn't be much more valuable than an Andrew Alberts. The mission is to trade Luongo, not Luongo and a huge chunk of the forward corps...
Just my two cents.
You did something because it had always been done, and the explanation was "but we've always done it this way." A million dead people can't have been wrong, can they?
-- (Terry Pratchett, The Fifth Elephant)