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[Updated Article] A Tale of Two Tenders: what do the numbers mean for the Canucks future


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#31 GradinToSmyl

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 08:25 PM

The ending of every post you make annoys me. Y'know what i mean?

Tiggies


Then pray we sign Schultz, TOML goes away if we do.


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#32 dura_mater

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:52 PM

"The greatest difference going into the Vancouver Canuck's 2012/13 season will be in net, as this organization has been lucky enough to have two franchise goaltenders on the roster for too long now, and due to both Cory Schneider's looming RFA status and the way things ended for Roberto Luongo last season, it has become clear that only one goalie will remain a Canuck come September. There has been much talk of Luongo being traded over the summer, and many opinions on the matter, but there has been a lack of analysis on each player's numbers, how they differ, and what they mean for the Canuck's future.

Let's start with the basics- in the last two seasons (since Schneider has shared duties with Luongo), #1 and #35's GAA have been 2.26 and 1.86 respectively. When we enter the playoffs, Luongo's GAA rises 11% to 2.52, while Schneider's falls 26% to 1.38. This is where we begin to see the differences between the two goaltender's games, and the gap only widens from here. The standard deviation (degree to which each game is near the goalie's average GAA) between the two goaltenders is quite comparable throughout an entire season, but when we isolate the playoffs, Schneider's SDfallsby 34%, from 1.39 to 0.91, meaning be becomes more consistent, and Luongo's playoff standard deviationincreasesby 31%, from1.41 to 1.85, showing less consistency. We have seen this empirically throughout the years, but the numbers make our convictions abundantly clear."


I love when people who know nothing about stats try to twist them to prove nothing. Let's have a little closer look at things.

For one, Cory has only played 8 playoff games and Lou 61. That's a very small sample size (Cory) to be comparing to Lou. Let's look at Luongo's first 12 playoff games - much more even sample sizes.

Luongo GP 12 GAA 1.77 SV% .941
Schneider GP 8 GAA 1.91 SV% .940

Therefore, Luongo >>> Schneider.


Not really, but according to your reasoning he is.
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#33 wai_lai416

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 01:53 AM

lol knowing AV, unless he has a backup he can trust.. he's going to ride Schneider for 70+ games assuming we trade Luongo and have say Lack as a backup. with all the travels and stuff going on? i can see us knocked out again in the first round. I just hope for the sake of Luongo he gets traded to Florida, we get nothing good in return except a terrible contract which is looking more and more likely if Luongo is only willing to go to Florida, and we are back to our mediocre days of making the playoff and being knocked out in the first or 2nd round over and over again. following history we ain't gonna make the finals again for another 12-14 years anyways. so hopefully all the bandwagoners will jump off the bandwagon and maybe the ticket prices will come down again when the fake fans stop caring about the team :bigblush:

#34 coleycanuck

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 09:14 AM

Thanks for the feedback, I know that my sample size for Schneider's playoff statistics is too small to make confident forecasts for his future, but if you read on, my main point has to do with the difference in terms of the Canucks defensive play when Schneider starts. I have now pasted the entire article, because I realize most people had just read the first two paragraphs. I'd appreciate more opinions on the piece as a whole.

#35 sedintwinz

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 02:26 PM

i think you're right about seeing a more defensive team next season, also seems to be the general direction of the league as a whole.

#36 smurf47

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 05:33 PM

Yeah Markstrom, he has played a few games already, but don't think he is ready yet. Im sure they would love to have LU and have Markstrom back up Lu. That is a MUCH better tandom then Theodore and Clemmensen. Markstrom is still very young at age 22 and I think he would develop nicely backing up Luongo just like Schnieder has.

Markstrom is a big goalie at 6 ft 6 and could very well become their franchise elite goalie, but give a few more years and he will be an NHL goalie. If Lu could give them a solid 3-4 years and mentor Markstrom after, they will be golden.

Going to be hard to see Lu go if he does, but going to FLA would be easier because I can cheer for them and the Canucks. I was pulling hard for the Panthers this playoff.

hopefully we can toss you in with the trade :)

#37 Watermelons

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 08:19 PM

4 playoff games in his whole career, and he's consistent? There is no way to determine consistency after only 4 games. Sheesh. Keeping CS is just as much of a gamble for the team as keeping Lou is. Especially since the return would be WAY better for Shneids.


Exactly what I think...he hasn't even won any playoff games out of those 4 games either. I'm not saying that he is a bad goalie but I think it would be a lot safer to keep Luongo and trade Schneider

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#38 Westcoasting

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 08:31 PM

Yep, Corys value is pretty high. We'll get a good return for him!


You are singing a different tune now i bet!

#39 canucksnihilist

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 08:33 PM

you forgot that the aliens built the pyramids, and we've never been to the moon - nasa hoax.

come on. in 5 games? Or really 2/3 games? comparable only 2.

not going to play your game though... better things to do. but if you could figure out the percentages as to why people believe in coincidences, and what percentile they are likely to believe when paying attention to coincidences as opposed to seeing what they want to see (same thing if you're paying attention still - at least empirically) then you can quantify what people believe versus what they just think they believe. that is if empirical evidence is counted as coincidence acceptance or not in each case (at least give us a % chance of being right here). then come back and talk about save % in relation to that - then we're really getting somewhere!!!

put that in your pipe and smoke it. at least I did it in less words than you did and it is more fun to read !

#40 NuxFan09

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 09:27 PM

you forgot that the aliens built the pyramids, and we've never been to the moon - nasa hoax.

come on. in 5 games? Or really 2/3 games? comparable only 2.

not going to play your game though... better things to do. but if you could figure out the percentages as to why people believe in coincidences, and what percentile they are likely to believe when paying attention to coincidences as opposed to seeing what they want to see (same thing if you're paying attention still - at least empirically) then you can quantify what people believe versus what they just think they believe. that is if empirical evidence is counted as coincidence acceptance or not in each case (at least give us a % chance of being right here). then come back and talk about save % in relation to that - then we're really getting somewhere!!!

put that in your pipe and smoke it. at least I did it in less words than you did and it is more fun to read !


No it's not. I don't know what the hell you're talking about.

#41 Kass9

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 09:29 PM

Frack, just how many bs stats need to be shown to us in order for us to figure out what we already know? Y'know what i mean?


TOML


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#42 Bodee

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Posted 29 June 2012 - 03:44 AM

Lu's cap hit stays the same throughout the entire length of the contract. We would be paying Luongo $5.3 mil and Schneider $2.5-$3.5 mil which would total $7.8-8.8 mil on team goaltending. Doesn't make sense when we can just make the better goalie our #1 guy and ship Luongo out of town. Save money, improve in net, get younger.


Have you factored in what we need to pay out if Lack can't underpin a faltering Schneider...........remember we have yet to see him hold a whole season together. Lack looked shaky on quite a few occasions in Chicago, that is why Climie played so many games.

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#43 DownUndaCanuck

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Posted 29 June 2012 - 03:59 AM

I don't read into these stats at all. Schneider has played 56 regular season games in the NHL.

Say what you want, that is just not a big enough sample size to compare him to Luongo. These 2 really shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence considering the completely different jobs they had last season. When Schneider is starting and playing 60-70 games feel free to compare, but it's a whole different game playing a sheltered 33 games in spot starts when he's fresh and not fatigued at all.

Oh and don't even dare bringing up the playoffs last season. The team played disgustingly from forwards to defenders, the goalie swap had no reflection on Luongo or Schneider's performance. Now you guys are saying Schneider is more "stable" and "consistent" in the playoffs based on a rediculously low 4 starts? The kid has 1 playoff win, he is still a nobody and you say he's better than a top-10 NHL goalie (all-time for that matter) who has more experience and big-game performances than anyone in the league right now.

Mark my words "Luongo haters", if the Canucks hitch their wagon onto Schneider and trade Luongo this franchise is about to collapse. We will not win the cup for another 3 years at least, quote me on it.
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#44 Westcoasting

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Posted 29 June 2012 - 06:59 AM

Mark my words "Luongo haters", if the Canucks hitch their wagon onto Schneider and trade Luongo this franchise is about to collapse. We will not win the cup for another 3 years at least, quote me on it.


Well that is easy to say after two presidents trophys isn't it? If we had you're hero in net it would also be easy to make that same prediction.




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