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Obama vs Romney 2012 - CDC Election


Columbo

Obama vs Romney  

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And yet Obama has a 100% chance of winning the state according to Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog:

http://fivethirtyeig...or/nate-silver/

In the Massachusetts election on Tuesday, Mitt Romney is expected to see his home state's
go to President Barack Obama.

The
show Obama with a comfortable lead over the former Massachusetts governor as voters in the Bay State cast ballots in the race.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/massachusetts-election-2012_n_2040957.html' rel="external nofollow">

Go figure, eh?

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What makes you figure he's biased? From what I've seen of Silver's model it is much more balanced than any of the individual polls released over the course of the campaign; this is particularly evident when you look at how it is compiled. It is certainly more "scientific" than any punditry being thrown around.

That said, I would agree that any forecast is just that - a forecast. It provides a look at one possible result and does not constitute a result in and of itself.

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Really not "nuff said". Read Wetcoaster's last post. I figured if you had any interest at all in criticizing Silver you'd have at least bothered to be familiar with his record. The only reason I give the "forecast" caveat is because Silver himself has gone to pains to explain the difference between his model and actual results. He explains very clearly why Romney even has a 9% chance rather than 0% - and the reason is the possibility of systemic bias.

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And yet Obama has a 100% chance of winning the state according to Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog:

http://fivethirtyeig...or/nate-silver/

In the Massachusetts election on Tuesday, Mitt Romney is expected to see his home state's
go to President Barack Obama.

The
show Obama with a comfortable lead over the former Massachusetts governor as voters in the Bay State cast ballots in the race.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/massachusetts-election-2012_n_2040957.html' rel="external nofollow">

Go figure, eh?

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