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Obama vs Romney 2012 - CDC Election


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Poll: Obama vs Romney (329 member(s) have cast votes)

Who would you vote for?

  1. Obama (279 votes [85.32%])

    Percentage of vote: 85.32%

  2. Romney (48 votes [14.68%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.68%

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#631 jmfaminoff

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 02:31 PM

A new CNN Poll shows the race tightening up with Obama leading Romney by 3% - 50-47.

Lucky for Obama Romney is a very weak candidate who is gaffe prone and wooden. Otherwise Obama would be a one term president.

Did you check the history of that poll? Probably not. Obama has fallen two points since the Democrat convention while Romney has increased by one. Seeing as it is now in the margin of error, it is close.
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#632 Sharpshooter

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 04:40 PM

Did you check the history of that poll? Probably not. Obama has fallen two points since the Democrat convention while Romney has increased by one. Seeing as it is now in the margin of error, it is close.


That poll was also for 'likely voters' and it was done on 783 people by telephone....which doesn't really represent the folks who will turn out for Obama, as they're usually more prone to have cellphones.

Doesn't matter really, polls will fluctuate and swing this way and that for the next 6 weeks. What's really telling is how long and by how much Obama's been leading Romney in the battle grounds states.

Romney's a piss-poor candidate and this election will be over early on Nov 6th. Obama will have it won before the Central timezone states are all done, let alone the Western States. Romney's path to the presidency is almost out of reach at this point. He's behind in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, etc.

Romney's dog just won't hunt, and you know it.....that's probably because he's still too scarred from his roof ride. :lol:
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#633 Tearloch7

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 05:11 PM

^ ^ ^ Too funny Sharpie .. poor puppy .. :lol:
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#634 Jaimito

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 05:54 PM

That poll was also for 'likely voters' and it was done on 783 people by telephone....which doesn't really represent the folks who will turn out for Obama, as they're usually more prone to have cellphones.

Doesn't matter really, polls will fluctuate and swing this way and that for the next 6 weeks. What's really telling is how long and by how much Obama's been leading Romney in the battle grounds states.

Romney's a piss-poor candidate and this election will be over early on Nov 6th. Obama will have it won before the Central timezone states are all done, let alone the Western States. Romney's path to the presidency is almost out of reach at this point. He's behind in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, etc.


michigan and PA is not a swing state these days. it will stay blue. Romney already pull all ads in michigan. Philly will hold the fort for PA again like 2008. Especially today when they blocked the voter ID law in PA.

Edited by Jaimito, 02 October 2012 - 05:56 PM.

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#635 Fathoms

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 06:54 PM

you seem to think that posting your opinion , and then posting a video that you think validates your decision not to vote, answers the question i asked you .
well it does not , my vote did count at the last election, and there have been changes in my society because of this , changes that i wanted .


I have been making the argument from morality as well as the argument from first principles. You are using ex-post-facto rationalizations and the argument from utility. There doesn't seem to be any possible meeting ground between us. Moreover, you never seem to have any interest in even processing the argument's I put forth. You tend towards acting as though they aren't even there. So I thought frack it, I'll post an film that makes a lot of compelling arguments in the vein of what I have been talking about only a lot better than I can. Kind of like how you post song lyrics when you get frustrated. It is more for the lurkers ofcourse. I have never seen a single person change their mind on an online debate on any topic, ever. So I am always conscientious of there being wider audience.
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#636 jmfaminoff

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 07:05 PM

michigan and PA is not a swing state these days. it will stay blue. Romney already pull all ads in michigan. Philly will hold the fort for PA again like 2008. Especially today when they blocked the voter ID law in PA.

I have spent time in PA. I fully agree that the population in Philly will swing the state for Obama--western parts of the state are fairly conservative.
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#637 Dral

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 07:15 PM

To date, 186 CDCers out of 215 can breath a sigh of relief....

http://www.newscient...no-contest.html

Don’t believe the US presidential opinion polls. Barring a political earthquake, Barack Obama will be re-elected at a canter
FROM tabloids and broadsheets to left-leaning blogs and conservative talk shows, the US media has been united on one point in recent months: the presidential election is too tight to call. The difference between the candidates is "razor thin", The New York Post said recently. The "race remains close", agreed The Washington Post. According to The New York Times it is "widely expected to rest on a final blitz of advertising and furious campaigning".

But it takes just a few clicks to go from that last article to one that tells a very different story - one much more in keeping with what science tells us about the election. The New York Times hosts FiveThirtyEight, a blog by statistician Nate Silver dedicated to crunching electoral numbers. It gives the Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 1-in-4 chance of victory. Over at PredictWise, another source of political forecasts, Romney's odds are only a shade better. The race isn't close or razor-thin or dependent on advertising. It is President Obama's to lose - something that readers are rarely told.

Why the discrepancy? To answer that question, think about what polls actually are. They are often taken as an indication of who will win the election. But polls only provide a snapshot, often with a large margin of error, of who would win if the election took place today. That's very different from what we really care about, which is the candidate most likely to win the real thing in November. That's a forecast. It's what FiveThirtyEight and PredictWise provide, and it's a more complex beast than a poll.

The PredictWise forecast, the work of Microsoft researcher David Rothschild, depends on three types of data and the impact that each is known to have.

One is economic indicators, and the link here is simple: the better the economy is doing, the greater the incumbent's chances of winning. The US economy remains unhealthy but, crucially, it's on the mend. We know from previous elections that the direction of the economy has a bigger influence than its absolute state, so this information narrowly favours Obama.

The next ingredient is the wisdom of the crowd. It is well known that groups can make more accurate predictions than individuals when opinions are aggregated into a collective forecast. In this case, the aggregation takes place at websites like the Iowa Electronic Markets, where investors buy and sell futures in the two candidates. The return on these contracts is based on who wins and by how much, so prices reflect the traders' collective confidence in each candidate. Obama's shares have recently been trading at two to three times the price of Romney's.

The final input takes us back to opinion polls. With a little number crunching, polls can be transformed into forecasts. The process depends on the trends in polling numbers seen during previous elections.
It's known, for instance, that support for the incumbent tends to pick up two to three months before election day. This is probably due to the challenger's honeymoon period coming to an end. It is easier for voters to idealise a challenger, who may not previously have had a high national profile, than it is the incumbent, who has been headline news for almost four years. As voters learn more about a challenger they inevitably discover things they do not like, prompting some to decide to stick with what they know. This may be one reason why Obama has edged ahead in the polls in recent weeks.

There are different recipes for combining these ingredients, and not every forecaster uses them in the same way. Some, including Rothschild, increase the accuracy by considering data on individual states rather than at a national level. But almost every model is predicting an Obama victory. Most have been making this prediction for a year or so. And election forecasting is hardly a newcomer: one model run by Allan Lichtman of the American University in Washington DC has correctly called the popular vote in the past seven elections. "I don't see how Obama can lose," Lichtman told US News & World Report.

If the models are robust, and their predictions strongly in favour of Obama, why are we being told that the race is a dead heat? I think it is partly a cultural issue. Earlier this year I wrote a story about election forecasting for a British publication. The science editor liked it, but a colleague on the politics desk vetoed the piece, in part because he simply didn't believe the forecasts. I can see why. The hurly-burly of day-to-day politics is filled with dramatic events, like the recent leaked video of Romney talking in unvarnished terms about voters he cannot hope to win over. These events make the race feel like a roller-coaster ride.

The truth, as revealed by the science, is much more prosaic. Obama is way ahead and has been for ages. The meat and drink of daily political reporting - party conventions, gaffes, attack ads - have a limited and often passing impact. That's not to say that an unforeseen event couldn't put Romney in the White House. But it would have to be something huge, because studies of previous elections show outcomes depend far more on fundamental factors such as employment rates.

That, however, doesn't make for an exciting story. I remember where I was when John McCain selected the deeply divisive Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008 - an event that supposedly redefined the race. Two weeks later Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. It was genuine drama, the stuff that sells newspapers and advertising space. But it didn't change the way people voted. The scientific predictions gave McCain minimal chance all the way through the 2008 race, and he duly lost. The forecasts are similar for Romney. The race is not tight, and the only honest approach is to say so.

Jim Giles is a consultant for New Scientist based in San Francisco


edit: cleaned up the article for clarity

Edited by Dral, 02 October 2012 - 07:51 PM.

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#638 jmfaminoff

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 07:29 PM

To date, 186 CDCers out of 215 can breath a sigh of relief....

http://www.newscient...no-contest.html

Polling is not an exact science. They use the exit polls from 2008 to set the parameters for the 2012 election.
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#639 Dral

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 07:49 PM

Polling is not an exact science. They use the exit polls from 2008 to set the parameters for the 2012 election.


I guess that's why polling is only a part of these forecasts. No it's not an exact science, it's a model using complex equations to make predictions that have a much better accuracy then polls. This guy even sort of makes fun of polls.

Wait... did you even read the article? Are you trolling me?
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#640 OgS.MVP

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 10:30 PM

There is no way Romney can win, not with the way he is screwing himself over.

Obama does not even have to attack the guy, he does enough damage on his own.

This is going to be the most one-sided election of the century.
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#641 Sharpshooter

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 11:03 PM

Polling is not an exact science. They use the exit polls from 2008 to set the parameters for the 2012 election.


It's over son...it's ovah!

B)
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#642 Tortorella's Rant

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 11:38 PM


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#643 Fathoms

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 01:10 PM

Character education is important, but politics is often calloused.


Education is too important to leave to the schools. I've racked my brain considerably over this topic and have come to the conclusion that only way to build a better society is through peaceful parenting and a revolution in how society views and treats the young.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRk_sfkBCJ8&feature=g-all-u
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#644 DonLever

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 02:04 PM

Anyone going to watch the debate tonight? Obama is expected to win, given his superb oral skills. But Obama has everything to lose if Romney does better than expected.
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#645 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 02:06 PM

I'll end up recording it, Survivor is just too damn good, but yes I will end up watching it. It's not so much a measure of oral skills as it is intelligence. Romney will end up confusing himself if the Republican primaries have any indication.
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#646 Sharpshooter

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 02:09 PM

Looking forward to Romney's 'pocketful of zingers' tonight. :lol:
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#647 Ghostsof1915

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 02:14 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efKguI0NFek


Normally I love George Carlin, but he's just illustrating he was part of the problem. I think if you vote and vote for an independent, or something else other than the stacked deck you're letting your voice be heard. Too many people stay at home and let politicians get away with crap. He was just showing how jaded he was, or he was using that to make a point. People doing nothing lets the folks in charge do what they want. Throwing a monkeywrench into things does something.
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#648 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 03:03 PM

I have been making the argument from morality as well as the argument from first principles. You are using ex-post-facto rationalizations and the argument from utility. There doesn't seem to be any possible meeting ground between us. Moreover, you never seem to have any interest in even processing the argument's I put forth. You tend towards acting as though they aren't even there. So I thought frack it, I'll post an film that makes a lot of compelling arguments in the vein of what I have been talking about only a lot better than I can. Kind of like how you post song lyrics when you get frustrated. It is more for the lurkers ofcourse. I have never seen a single person change their mind on an online debate on any topic, ever. So I am always conscientious of there being wider audience.


you told me that my believing my vote made a difference was a harmful and destructive fantasy , and i have pointed out that this was/is not the case .
I have not ignored your arguments , i have taken then into consideration and then countered them with facts and have proven your original statement to be wrong .
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#649 Columbo

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 05:15 PM

Anyone going to watch the debate tonight? Obama is expected to win, given his superb oral skills. But Obama has everything to lose if Romney does better than expected.


The debates are stupid. 99% of people who watch them are already decided voters. Plus the candidates will spend 3 hours arguing policies and visions, but after the only thing the media will focus on is if one of the candidates sighed or stuttered or made a funny face.
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#650 Nevlach

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 06:18 PM


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#651 Nevlach

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 06:51 PM

Interesting debate so far. I like Obama, but Romney I think seems more prepared with his topics/answers so far.
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#652 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 07:08 PM

Well Romney managed to come back to centre. His numbers are cooked of course, and the 716 he keeps dropping has been proven to not be taken out of medicare. Romney in almost every rebuttal so far has used or expanded on Obama's examples, nothing new he's contributing.
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#653 Jaimito

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 07:11 PM

romney flip flops at an instant, so it's harder to nail down.

romney gives better canned answers for sure, easier for listeners to get it.
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#654 Jaimito

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 07:13 PM

The debates are stupid. 99% of people who watch them are already decided voters. Plus the candidates will spend 3 hours arguing policies and visions, but after the only thing the media will focus on is if one of the candidates sighed or stuttered or made a funny face.


you are right. across my street, there's a huge debate watch party, pretty much all democrats.
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#655 Nevlach

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 07:20 PM

Well Romney managed to come back to centre. His numbers are cooked of course, and the 716 he keeps dropping has been proven to not be taken out of medicare. Romney in almost every rebuttal so far has used or expanded on Obama's examples, nothing new he's contributing.

Hmm I did not know that.
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#656 Jaimito

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 07:32 PM

Hmm I did not know that.


716 billion is out of administrative costs and subsidies to drug companies, not the cost of care to the patients.
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#657 Canuckerbird

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 10:16 PM

Romney did surprisingly well tonight. Obama and his team needs to find something else to attack rather than the tax cuts that Romney is denying. Romney could gain some momentum from this if Obama doesn't do better in round two.
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#658 Nevlach

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 10:19 PM

Romney did surprisingly well tonight. Obama and his team needs to find something else to attack rather than the tax cuts that Romney is denying. Romney could gain some momentum from this if Obama doesn't do better in round two.

But could he do enough to actually win the election? He definitely is the underdog but I think he won the debate tonight by KO (at least that's what every single news station from here to Russia is saying)
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#659 DonLever

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 10:21 PM

Funny everyone here is bashing Romney when most political analysts say Romney did very well. They said Obama was on the defensive most of the time.

A CNN poll said 67% of those who saw the debate think Romney was the winner. Only 25% said Obama won.

But then very few people vote according to who wins a debate. Most people's minds are already made up irregardless who wins a debate.

Edited by DonLever, 03 October 2012 - 10:26 PM.

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#660 coleman26

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 10:25 PM

While it's hard to say after you've pointed it out, I haven't been involved in this thread, but I thought Romney murdered Obama tonight. I don't think he's the best candidate, and I didn't like how vague he was, but Obama was not decisive in his delivery, he seemed unprepared, and it seemed like Romney going five minutes talking without insulting the entire nation somehow rattled him. If I was scoring both out of 10, Romney wins 9-5, and if I was an ignorant voter who knew nothing about the issues and had no party preference and I only saw this debate, I'd be voting Romney. He won't win, and he shouldn't, but if I was the Dems I'd be bricking over how badly Romney schooled Obama tonight.
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