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Obama vs Romney 2012 - CDC Election


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Poll: Obama vs Romney (329 member(s) have cast votes)

Who would you vote for?

  1. Obama (279 votes [85.32%])

    Percentage of vote: 85.32%

  2. Romney (48 votes [14.68%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.68%

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#1291 Wetcoaster

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 01:45 PM

What makes you figure he's biased? From what I've seen of Silver's model it is much more balanced than any of the individual polls released over the course of the campaign; this is particularly evident when you look at how it is compiled. It is certainly more "scientific" than any punditry being thrown around.
That said, I would agree that any forecast is just that - a forecast. It provides a look at one possible result and does not constitute a result in and of itself.

And Silver is uncannily accurate.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.


In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine.

As Ezra Klein writes in his Washington Post blog (and he has had considered critiques of Nate Silver's modelling and system in the past):


First, there are the conservatives who don’t like Silver’s model because, well, they don’t like it. Obama’s continued strong showing is prima facie evidence of bias. Or, to put it slightly differently, the model must be skewed.

The answer to this is simple enough: If Silver’s model is systematically biased, there’s a market opportunity for anyone who wants to build a better model. That person would stand to gain hugely if they outpredicted punditry’s reigning forecaster (not to mention all the betting markets and all the other forecasters). The math behind what Silver is doing isn’t that complicated and the polls are easily available. But so far, the most popular conservative take on the polls was UnskewedPolls.com, to which … LOL. If Silver’s model is so easy to best, then what’s the market failure keeping a less-biased source from besting it?

Then there’s the backlash from more traditional media figures. Some of the arguments here have been downright weird, as when Politico’s Josh Gerstein wrote, “Isn’t the basic problem with the Nate Silver prediction in question, and the critique, that it puts a percentage on a one-off event?” Or when Politico’s Jonathan Martin wrote, “Avert your gaze, liberals: Nate Silver admits he’s simply averaging public polls and there is no secret sauce.” Or when Politico’s Dylan Byers wrote, “So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it’s difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning.”

Come to think of it, a lot of the odder critiques of Silver have been coming out of Politico. But that makes a kind of sense. Silver’s work poses a threat to more traditional — and, in particular, to more excitable — forms of political punditry and horse-race journalism.

If you had to distill the work of a political pundit down to a single question, you’d have to pick the perennial “who will win the election?” During election years, that’s the question at the base of most careers in punditry, almost all cable news appearances, and most A1 news articles. Traditionally, we’ve answered that question by drawing on some combination of experience, intuition, reporting and polls. Now Silver — and Silver’s imitators and political scientists — are taking that question away from us. It would be shocking if the profession didn’t try and defend itself.

More recently, we in the media — and particularly we in the media at Politico — have tried to grab an edge in the race for Web traffic by hyping our election stories far beyond their actual importance. The latest gaffe is always a possible turning point, the momentum is always swinging wildly, the race is endlessly up in the air. It thus presents a bit of a problem for us if our readers then turn to sites like Silver’s and find that none of this actually appears to be true and a clear-eyed look at the data shows a fairly stable race over long periods of time.

My guess is Silver and his successors will win this one, if only because, for all the very real shortcomings of models, election forecasters have better incentives than homepage editors. For instance, note that all these attacks on Silver take, as their starting point, Silver’s continuously updated prediction for the presidential election, which includes point estimates for the popular vote and electoral college, and his predictions for the Senate races. Those predictions let readers check Silver’s track record and they force Silver, if he wants to keep his readers’ trust, to make his model as accurate as he can. That’s a good incentive structure — certainly a better one than much of the rest of the media has — and my guess is his results, over time, will prove it. http://www.washingto...ilver-backlash/


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#1292 YaK

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 01:52 PM

NYT nuff said.

Really not "nuff said". Read Wetcoaster's last post. I figured if you had any interest at all in criticizing Silver you'd have at least bothered to be familiar with his record. The only reason I give the "forecast" caveat is because Silver himself has gone to pains to explain the difference between his model and actual results. He explains very clearly why Romney even has a 9% chance rather than 0% - and the reason is the possibility of systemic bias.
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#1293 Tearloch7

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 01:57 PM

Really not "nuff said". Read Wetcoaster's last post. I figured if you had any interest at all in criticizing Silver you'd have at least bothered to be familiar with his record. The only reason I give the "forecast" caveat is because Silver himself has gone to pains to explain the difference between his model and actual results. He explains very clearly why Romney even has a 9% chance rather than 0% - and the reason is the possibility of systemic bias.


Anyone who dismiss' the NYT out of hand is probably immune to a reasoned approach .. "ditto" indeed .. :rolleyes:
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#1294 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

mb
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#1295 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

Where is William Jefferson Clinton when you need him???


Is that the same bill clinton , under whose watch the glass-stegall act was repealed .
At the start of clintons first term the ratio of a ceo's wage in relation to his average worker was 40-1 , by the end of his second term it was at nearly 400-1 .

Some of the economic problems america is experiencing now , can be traced back to his administration.
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#1296 Gretzky's Mullet

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:07 PM

Exactly, Some people need to get off Obama's....only reason people want to vote for him is because he is 'likable', if you break it down, Obama or Romney your essentially voting for the same s*&$! .

Yeah that, plus social issues, foreign policy, tax policy, women's affairs, immigration, energy policy...

The two candidates may be similar in the sense that both want to keep the Federal Reserve, but frankly you've got serious tunnel vision if you think that's the only issue at stake in this election.
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#1297 M A K A V E L I 96

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:09 PM

There's a black panther opening the door for people at a Philadelphia polling place. Fox calls it voter intimidation. :lol:

They're lining up their ducks in a row for reasons for Romney's eventual loss.

http://video.foxnews...-polling-place/
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#1298 RUPERTKBD

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:11 PM

Look at this threads poll?  lol  86-14%   no bias here.


Bias? Hardly.

I'd say there are a lot less easily misled morons on this site.
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#1299 Gretzky's Mullet

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:16 PM

And yet Obama has a 100% chance of winning the state according to Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog:
http://fivethirtyeig...or/nate-silver/


In the Massachusetts election on Tuesday, Mitt Romney is expected to see his home state's 11 electoral votes go to President Barack Obama.

The latest polls show Obama with a comfortable lead over the former Massachusetts governor as voters in the Bay State cast ballots in the race. http://www.huffingto..._n_2040957.html


Go figure, eh?



I actually really enjoyed Biden's comment on that in the VP debate, where Ryan was touting about Romney "reaching out to the Democrats" in the state house as governor, and then Biden retorted that "you guys aren't even contesting Massachusetts". One of the more underrated zingers of the debates IMO.

Funny how of all the states Romney has called or does call home, Utah is the only one that will vote for him. Pretty damning when you can't win in your birth state (Michigan) or your home state (Mass). I guess he could win New Hampshire, I think he has vacation property there.

Meanwhile, Paul Ryan has basically been claiming every state as his home state, depending on whether he has some in-laws from there, or he's campaigning in a town called "Zanesville", or it looks a little like Wisconsin (as, by and large, most midwest states do). I guess that's a good way to make sure you win at least one of your "home states". Not too optimistic about Wisconsin for him though.
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#1300 Tortorella's Rant

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:16 PM

Why is there a popular vote and an electoral vote? Isn't the electoral vote the only one that matters? You need 270 to win, so that makes the popular vote irrelevant, or..?
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#1301 YaK

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:16 PM

There's a black panther opening the door for people at a Philadelphia polling place. Fox calls it voter intimidation. :lol:

They're lining up their ducks in a row for reasons for Romney's eventual loss.

http://video.foxnews...-polling-place/

Yeah, I've found it sort of humorous that the fact that an Obama mural is in a polling station has been their leading headline on their webpage all day... and yet the story about voting machines entering a vote for Romney instead of Obama is nowhere to be seen.
Don't get me wrong, the polling station should have had the mural covered from the start, but if you look at the Fox News webpage right now you can definitely see an overwhelming effort to delegitimize the process in anticipation of an Obama win.
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#1302 Tig'ol Bitties

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:21 PM

Has there been any information released as to who is winning?
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#1303 YaK

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:23 PM

Why is there a popular vote and an electoral vote? Isn't the electoral vote the only one that matters? You need 270 to win, so that makes the popular vote irrelevant, or..?

The popular vote is irrelevant.. although it gives news organizations something to chew on if it would theoretically elect the other guy. It does highlight the fact that the Electoral College model is imperfect.
Recording the popular vote is just a byproduct of record keeping. The issue is more obvious when there are only two competitive candidates, but look at what happened in our own election. The Conservatives have a majority government without a majority of the popular vote (39.62% to be exact).

Edited by YaK, 06 November 2012 - 02:26 PM.

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#1304 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:27 PM

Why is there a popular vote and an electoral vote? Isn't the electoral vote the only one that matters? You need 270 to win, so that makes the popular vote irrelevant, or..?


How the US Electoral College works

Reuters | Updated: November 06, 2012 14:54 IST



Posted Image
Image courtesy: AFP
The US Electoral College was established in the Constitution as a compromise between electing a president by a vote in Congress and by popular vote of citizens. Here are some facts about the Electoral College:

  • The Electoral College, which is not a place but a process, consists of 538 electors. To win the presidency, a candidate must win at least 270 electors.
  • The number of electors equals the number of lawmakers in Congress - 435 in the House of Representatives and 100 in the Senate, plus three for the District of Columbia. Each state's allotment of electors equals its number of representatives in the House plus one for each of its two senators.
  • Most states have a winner-take-all system for awarding electors. The presidential candidate who wins the popular vote in the state gets all of the state's electors. Maine and Nebraska have a variation of "proportional representation" that can result in a split of their electors between the candidates.
  • Critics say the Electoral College does not meet the original intent because a candidate can lose the nationwide popular vote and still win the election by winning the right combination of states. That happened most recently in the controversial election of 2000 when Democrat Al Gore got the most votes but Republican George W. Bush won the presidency. Republicans Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 and Benjamin Harrison in 1888 also won in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
  • There is no constitutional requirement that electors vote according to the results of the popular vote, although some states require it.
  • The electors meet in their states in December and cast their votes for president and vice president.
  • If no presidential candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the election goes to the House of Representatives, with each state having one vote.
  • The House has decided two presidential elections - that of Thomas Jefferson in 1800 and John Quincy Adams in 1824.
  • The Senate would elect the vice president, with each senator casting one vote. That raises the possibility of a president and vice president from different parties.
  • The biggest Electoral College prizes are California, with 55; Texas, with 38; and New York and Florida, each with 29. California and New York are considered reliably Democratic, Texas reliably Republican and Florida is a battleground state that could go either way.
  • Among the other important swing states this year, Ohio has 18 votes, Virginia 13, Wisconsin 10, Colorado 9, Nevada 6, Iowa 6 and New Hampshire 4.
  • The system explains why candidates tend to spend a disproportionate amount of time and money on trying to secure the battleground states. It also means that what appears to be a tight race in national opinion polls may be less close when viewed state by state

Edited by The Ratiocinator, 06 November 2012 - 02:28 PM.

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#1305 Tearloch7

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:33 PM

Has there been any information released as to who is winning?


First results will not start coming in until after 7 PM eastern time ..
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#1306 Gretzky's Mullet

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:37 PM

Media outlets pledged not to release exit polls from states until polling closed there, so as to prevent social media from influencing people who have yet to vote.
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#1307 Tortorella's Rant

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:39 PM

The popular vote is irrelevant.. although it gives news organizations something to chew on if it would theoretically elect the other guy. It does highlight the fact that the Electoral College model is imperfect.
Recording the popular vote is just a byproduct of record keeping. The issue is more obvious when there are only two competitive candidates, but look at what happened in our own election. The Conservatives have a majority government without a majority of the popular vote (39.62% to be exact).


Okay, thanks.
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#1308 Tortorella's Rant

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:40 PM

How the US Electoral College works

Reuters | Updated: November 06, 2012 14:54 IST



Posted Image
Image courtesy: AFP
The US Electoral College was established in the Constitution as a compromise between electing a president by a vote in Congress and by popular vote of citizens. Here are some facts about the Electoral College:

  • The Electoral College, which is not a place but a process, consists of 538 electors. To win the presidency, a candidate must win at least 270 electors.
  • The number of electors equals the number of lawmakers in Congress - 435 in the House of Representatives and 100 in the Senate, plus three for the District of Columbia. Each state's allotment of electors equals its number of representatives in the House plus one for each of its two senators.
  • Most states have a winner-take-all system for awarding electors. The presidential candidate who wins the popular vote in the state gets all of the state's electors. Maine and Nebraska have a variation of "proportional representation" that can result in a split of their electors between the candidates.
  • Critics say the Electoral College does not meet the original intent because a candidate can lose the nationwide popular vote and still win the election by winning the right combination of states. That happened most recently in the controversial election of 2000 when Democrat Al Gore got the most votes but Republican George W. Bush won the presidency. Republicans Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 and Benjamin Harrison in 1888 also won in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
  • There is no constitutional requirement that electors vote according to the results of the popular vote, although some states require it.
  • The electors meet in their states in December and cast their votes for president and vice president.
  • If no presidential candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the election goes to the House of Representatives, with each state having one vote.
  • The House has decided two presidential elections - that of Thomas Jefferson in 1800 and John Quincy Adams in 1824.
  • The Senate would elect the vice president, with each senator casting one vote. That raises the possibility of a president and vice president from different parties.
  • The biggest Electoral College prizes are California, with 55; Texas, with 38; and New York and Florida, each with 29. California and New York are considered reliably Democratic, Texas reliably Republican and Florida is a battleground state that could go either way.
  • Among the other important swing states this year, Ohio has 18 votes, Virginia 13, Wisconsin 10, Colorado 9, Nevada 6, Iowa 6 and New Hampshire 4.
  • The system explains why candidates tend to spend a disproportionate amount of time and money on trying to secure the battleground states. It also means that what appears to be a tight race in national opinion polls may be less close when viewed state by state



Ya, that's what I remember hearing the other day hence why I asked. :unsure:
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#1309 Wetcoaster

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:40 PM

This election has me confused. Why would anyone vote for a foreign born Muslim who is a communist over a Christian white guy who has made lots of money???

I left early this morning and crossed the border at the Peace Arch crossing and headed for a polling station in Bellingham.

They refused to let me vote!!!! What is it with these voter suppression laws?

Do they not know I have my rights under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms???


I even had my commemorative copies of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in both official languages autographed by the Queen of Canada with me but they still blocked me from voting.

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Oh yeah...


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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it.

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#1310 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:49 PM

I'm most curious as to what happens with the 23 senate seats up for election. I'd love to see Democrats control senate again, and apparently this starts with a Murdoc (the tool that believes his god enables rape to happen) loss.
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#1311 Sanford

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:52 PM

Wow just voted, OBAMA all the way... 85% obama heh.

If our mindsets are similar to Americans, then today we'll see Obama win. To much uncertainties with Romney.
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#1312 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:58 PM

Wow just voted, OBAMA all the way... 85% obama heh.

If our mindsets are similar to Americans, then today we'll see Obama win. To much uncertainties with Romney.


One certainty if romney is elected , the rich will get richer , and the 47% of americans who are bums , will not even get the picture .
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Aldous Huxley.


#1313 Drybone

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:58 PM

This election has me confused. Why would anyone vote for a foreign born Muslim who is a communist over a Christian white guy who has made lots of money???

I left early this morning and crossed the border at the Peace Arch crossing and headed for a polling station in Bellingham.

They refused to let me vote!!!! What is it with these voter suppression laws?

Do they not know I have my rights under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms???


I even had my commemorative copies of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in both official languages autographed by the Queen of Canada with me but they still blocked me from voting.

Posted Image

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Oh yeah...


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lol

You are my new hero dude.
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#1314 Drybone

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:00 PM

I'm most curious as to what happens with the 23 senate seats up for election. I'd love to see Democrats control senate again, and apparently this starts with a Murdoc (the tool that believes his god enables rape to happen) loss.


Senate will be 51 to 53 for the Democrats

House will be 225 or more to 180 or whatnot for the Republicans .

Popular vote is trending to Romney but Obama still favored to win the electoral college.
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#1315 Donky

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:01 PM

I'm most curious as to what happens with the 23 senate seats up for election. I'd love to see Democrats control senate again, and apparently this starts with a Murdoc (the tool that believes his god enables rape to happen) loss.


The Democrats already control the Senate. The GOP controls the House. It is very likely the Democrats will end up with between 51-54 seats in the Senate and an outside chance at 55+.

I'm also willing to put down my prediction of 294 or 303 electoral votes for Obama depending on which way Colorado swings. Of the other swing states I like Obama for Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, NH and Romney in Florida and North Carolina. If Virginia goes for Obama I love the Democrats to repeat moving forward in 2016.
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#1316 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:05 PM

mb again

(fix this)
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#1317 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:08 PM

The Democrats already control the Senate. The GOP controls the House. It is very likely the Democrats will end up with between 51-54 seats in the Senate and an outside chance at 55+.

I'm also willing to put down my prediction of 294 or 303 electoral votes for Obama depending on which way Colorado swings. Of the other swing states I like Obama for Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, NH and Romney in Florida and North Carolina. If Virginia goes for Obama I love the Democrats to repeat moving forward in 2016.


I said 'again', but I did mean a real majority. Err and I meant 33 senate seats up for election.
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#1318 Gretzky's Mullet

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:18 PM

Popular vote is trending to Romney but Obama still favored to win the electoral college.

Actually, in the last week the popular vote has moved strongly towards Obama if the polls are to be believed.
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#1319 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:20 PM

The Democrats already control the Senate. The GOP controls the House. It is very likely the Democrats will end up with between 51-54 seats in the Senate and an outside chance at 55+.

I'm also willing to put down my prediction of 294 or 303 electoral votes for Obama depending on which way Colorado swings. Of the other swing states I like Obama for Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, NH and Romney in Florida and North Carolina. If Virginia goes for Obama I love the Democrats to repeat moving forward in 2016.


Most of the polls i have been perusing say that obama will get between 290-320 electoral college votes
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The Real war is not between the east and the west. The real war is between intelligent and stupid people.

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That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.

Aldous Huxley.


#1320 The Wizard of AZ

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 03:23 PM

In b4 Romney wins and Zeitgeisters claim Republicans created Hurricane Sandy.
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