avelanch Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it's sad when you try to create a nickname for yourself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ossi Vaananen Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Senate will be 51 to 53 for the Democrats House will be 225 or more to 180 or whatnot for the Republicans . Popular vote is trending to Romney but Obama still favored to win the electoral college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetcoaster Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sam Wang who like Silver applies, statistics, mathematics and modelling ("META-ANALYSIS OF POLLS") predicts: ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 303 EV, Mitt Romney 235 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the EV histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a 22% chance of being exactly correct. The next-most-likely outcome is Obama 332, Romney 206 EV. ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 305 EV, Romney 233 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.76%. This median is almost guaranteed to be off, since 305 EV is not a common combination. It is the midpoint of all possibilities, and reflects the overall shape of the distribution. The nominal 1-sigma band is Obama [293, 332] EV. TWO-CANDIDATE POPULAR VOTE SHARE: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. http://election.princeton.edu/ Wang has consistently produced figures more favourable to Obama than those of Nate Silver as has another poll aggregator and statistical modeller Drew Linzer of Votamatic who says: With the last set of polls factored into the model, my final prediction is Obama to win 332 electoral votes, with 206 for Romney. This is both the median and the modal outcome in my electoral vote simulation, and corresponds to Obama winning all of his 2008 states except Indiana and North Carolina. http://votamatic.org/ And Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls (aka Really Skewed Polls) says a Romney win as he has predicted from the outset: Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes http://unskewedpolls...resident_03.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky's Mullet Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm going to say 303 for Obama. That's where he'd end up if he wins everywhere he's leading except Florida. I had high hopes for North Carolina early on, and Nate Silver has made a convincing case that it is on an inevitable path towards being a future blue-leaning state, but I think the regressives there still hold enough sway to push it in Romney's column this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky's Mullet Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 225 + 180 does not = 538. 270 is majority and if the Republicans only managed 180, that would be a super majority of 358. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky's Mullet Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 And Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls (aka Really Skewed Polls) says a Romney win as he has predicted from the outset: Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes http://unskewedpolls...resident_03.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonLever Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One certainty if romney is elected , the rich will get richer , and the 47% of americans who are bums , will not even get the picture . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tearloch7 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One certainty if Obama wins is the economy is going over the fiscal cliff. Google it if you don't know what that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inane Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One certainty if Obama wins is the economy is going over the fiscal cliff. Google it if you don't know what that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky's Mullet Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One certainty if Obama wins is the economy is going over the fiscal cliff. Google it if you don't know what that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
î мцšт вяздк чфµ Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 romney has a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetcoaster Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That unskewed polls guy cracks me up. You read his column and it says "take the aggregate of the polls, throw away polls X, Y and Z because they show a lead for Obama and so are obviously skewed, and you get Romney in a landslide". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky's Mullet Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Here is Dean Chambers carefully considered critique of Nate Silver and his methodology: Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats. http://www.examiner....cid=db_articles So in the World According to Dean Chambers (and a truly skewed world it is) Nate Silver is just too gay for the numbers to make sense. Only manly men like Chambers can properly weight polls and make them fair and balanced again. And speaking of weight (Chambers left and Silver right in this image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ossi Vaananen Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like his neck is slowly eating his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky's Mullet Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't know how many of you are following election issues outside of the President and House races, but I know I'll be up late tonight waiting on the results of a few of the proposals. Gay marriage and marijuana are 2 hot button issues that are being put to voters in a number of states and those results should be really interesting. And I live in California, where there are a few very well funded and divisive propositions on the ballot this year too, most notably to do with raising taxes to pay for education, a super-PAC campaign financing initiative and GMO food labeling. Also, the vote to abolish the death penalty (which seems likely to pass) is on the ballot: California has had a hold on executions since '06 but has the most death row inmates of any state, and the new law would convert their sentences to life without parole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buggernut Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sam Wang who like Silver applies, statistics, mathematics and modelling ("META-ANALYSIS OF POLLS") predicts: ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 303 EV, Mitt Romney 235 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the EV histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a 22% chance of being exactly correct. The next-most-likely outcome is Obama 332, Romney 206 EV. ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 305 EV, Romney 233 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.76%. This median is almost guaranteed to be off, since 305 EV is not a common combination. It is the midpoint of all possibilities, and reflects the overall shape of the distribution. The nominal 1-sigma band is Obama [293, 332] EV. TWO-CANDIDATE POPULAR VOTE SHARE: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. http://election.princeton.edu/ Wang has consistently produced figures more favourable to Obama than those of Nate Silver as has another poll aggregator and statistical modeller Drew Linzer of Votamatic who says: With the last set of polls factored into the model, my final prediction is Obama to win 332 electoral votes, with 206 for Romney. This is both the median and the modal outcome in my electoral vote simulation, and corresponds to Obama winning all of his 2008 states except Indiana and North Carolina. http://votamatic.org/ And Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls (aka Really Skewed Polls) says a Romney win as he has predicted from the outset: Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes http://unskewedpolls...resident_03.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ossi Vaananen Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 romney has a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primus099 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Im not a fan of obama per say, but he hasnt done a poor job as a whole, its sad to see the hatred on one side who refuses to acknowledge his presidency and it kills them to see a black president. then on the other hand are the people who voted for obama because he is black, if we could eliminate these extremes and the avg intelligent voters vote counted it would be a good step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuck_trevor16 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 when do we get first results? I think sometime after 7 pm EST the first poll close and early results come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetcoaster Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Which state's electoral college do votes cast in Canada count towards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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