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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 3.0


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To repeat - I'm not terribly thrilled by what Toronto has to offer. I also think it is getting clearer that Luongo is not a cap dump, not going to wind up on waivers, and not going for table scraps or Komisarek.

The Cancucks drafted two centers and picked up a top 4 guy since before the draft, so the landscape has changed.

People talk Gardiner. I'm not sold on him as a great fit in the current roster - Hamhuis and Edler on the left side don't leave a great deal of space for Gardiner - and I'm not too impressed with Gardiner's play without the puck. He's also been prematurely overvalued given Leafs nation desperation.

People talk Bozak, their only roster center of any interest - meh, he's a UFA next year.

Colborne might still be an option - I proposed a deal that included him before the draft - but not as a centerpiece.

Frattin could be a wildcard secondary piece- aside from him, the Leafs have nothing else of interest at RW on their roster - he's less than a million cap hit, a couple years left before RFA - not a top 6, but more depth at RW.

Franson as a big right handed depth blueliner to compete for the 6th, 7th spot.

But really, not that compelling.

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It is almost certain that nothing is decided yet, as Gillis said on 1040 recently... he needs to see what the CBA landscape looks like before weighing his options.

If the NHL (Burke) suggested clause about punishing teams for long term contracts actually takes hold, then Luongo will remain a Canuck. There is virtually no circumstance that would make NOT having him on the team but still paying his cap hit better than having him playing for us.

On the other side, if the above clause isn't include BUT the clause where a team can choose to either keep 50% of the cap hit or 50% of salary in a trade... it would make Gillis look like a genius for waiting. All sorts of options open up all of a sudden:

Eg.

To Tampa Bay:

Luongo (we continue pay half his salary, but TB gets his whole cap hit)

To Vancouver:

Lecavalier (we pay his whole salary but only take on half the cap hit)

Who doesn't want Lecavalier if he is only costing you a $3.85 million cap hit?

Or:

To Florida:

Luongo (we pay half the salary, but Florida gets his whole cap hit

Hansen

To Vancouver:

Upshall (we pay his whole salary but only half his cap hit)

Bjugstad

Theodore

All of a sudden Upshall is a pretty good player for us at a $1.75 million cap hit. Florida upgrades their goaltending and only pays chump change in terms of real dollars.

This is just an example of how much the trade landscape can change depending on the CBA deal.

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If (and that's a big if) we traded with the Leafs, Scrivens would go back to the AHL, and Reimer would be the backup. We wouldn't be looking for either particularly in a trade as our young goaltending prospects are the main strength of the organization. We'd look for picks, prospects, roster forwards/defencemen, those sorts of things in return if a solid, cheap, veteran goalie isn't an option.

Gillis is saying the Leafs rumours are untrue, in part because he has to and in part because they probably are. I've never heard a GM say anything while a trade negotiation is ongoing (or more particularly when they aren't due to a lockout preventing such discussions) apart from the usual platitudes: "We've had discussions, we're exploring our options, we'd approached a few teams, a few teams have approached us, etc."

I'm not saying they don't have the possibility of a deal, but to have something just sitting there awaiting the signing of a new CBA is far-fetched. The new CBA might have a clause that would change the value of a deal, or ruin it altogether.

Luongo has been rumoured to the Leafs before, but that was when they still had Francois Allaire as their goalie coach, who has worked with Luongo extensively in the past. Allaire's no longer there, so less incentive for Luongo to want to be a Leaf. He may still want to go there to be closer to Montreal, and it gives him a good chance to be a starter without a superstar prospect coming to supplant him (like in Florida), but it's still a losing team in a high-profile market.

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Luongo has been rumoured to the Leafs before, but that was when they still had Francois Allaire as their goalie coach, who has worked with Luongo extensively in the past. Allaire's no longer there, so less incentive for Luongo to want to be a Leaf. He may still want to go there to be closer to Montreal, and it gives him a good chance to be a starter without a superstar prospect coming to supplant him (like in Florida), but it's still a losing team in a high-profile market.

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Why on earth would Gillis put him on waivers and lose him for nothing? That's one of the stupidest ideas I've heard.

Gillis: "If you don't accept this trade to Toronto, I'll put you on waivers. Maybe Columbus would like to pick you up?"

Luongo: "I call your bluff. You'd never put me on waivers and lose me for nothing."

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Not that I necessarily buy into what John Shannon claims, but there are a few leaf prospects that I wouldn't mind seeing come here, provided the overall package is what luongo is worth.

Ashton, Colborne and Rielly (although, I doubt he's on the table) have all been mentioned, but also worth a look would be Tyler Biggs, Marcel Mueller and Andrew Crescenzi. There's also a couple of 4th round defenders with size, that are right-handed shots in Petter Granberg (Swe) and Korbinian Holzer (Ger).

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Why on earth would Gillis put him on waivers and lose him for nothing? That's one of the stupidest ideas I've heard.

Gillis: "If you don't accept this trade to Toronto, I'll put you on waivers. Maybe Columbus would like to pick you up?"

Luongo: "I call your bluff. You'd never put me on waivers and lose me for nothing."

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