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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 3.0


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#421 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 09:15 PM

Bjugstad is a future 1st liner, bar none. If you've ever seen this kid play you would know that he dominates every time he's on the ice. He's a 6'5 centre, plays physical, skates like the wind and has a shot to top it all off. Bjugstad would take the reins when the Sedins eventually retire. Because of this Florida's not willing to move him.
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#422 Provost

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 11:29 PM

Bjugstad is a future 1st liner, bar none. If you've ever seen this kid play you would know that he dominates every time he's on the ice. He's a 6'5 centre, plays physical, skates like the wind and has a shot to top it all off. Bjugstad would take the reins when the Sedins eventually retire. Because of this Florida's not willing to move him.


No one can predict where this guy will end up on the roster... he probably has less chance of being a 1st liner than Huberdeau, but also way less of a total bust risk.

Florida likely knows that they have to follow an LA model rather than an Edmonton one. At some point you leverage an abundance of young talent by trading away a few pieces to get a balanced team of youth and experience.

He would be a tremendous future asset for us, and by our best prospect by a mile. I do think it is possible to get him, it just depends on if we are willing to pay what is necessary and whether that makes us better. He is also the right age to be perfect for our needs, 3-4 years out is when we need to have young guys coming up to start taking ice time away from our veterans... we extend the Sedin's careers if they can drop down to 2nd line minutes after hitting 36 years old.
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#423 WHL rocks

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 12:29 AM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??

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#424 BuretoMogilny

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 03:33 AM

Funny thing with the Leaf rumours and yes I know this is silly but it happened.

On NHL 13 I made a trade for Lou to Toronto, where we got a couple of picks and Grabovski for Luongo.

Next trade made was one of those picks (3rd) to Col for Milan Hejduk

Got rid of Raymond for picks.

Brought up Sauve, Connaughton, Tanev, Schroeder. First Three spelled the 6th man role.

Then traded Ballard and a third to NYI for Matt Martin. Signed Klesla as a free agent. (not sure if he is but he was in the game)

Lines

Sedin Sedin Hejduk
Higgins Kesler Burrows
Booth Grabovski Kassian
Martin Lapierre Hansen

Bieksa Hamhuis
Edler Garrison
Klesla Tanev/Connaughton/Sauve

Schnieds
Lack

Nucks won the cup over Buffalo in 6. In GM mode, didn't play the game myself.

I thought about this some more and it made sense. Get a sniper with the Sedins, pure hands and that line becomes impossible to stop, even moreso than it is now.

Lou for for Grabo-on a line with Booth and Kassian, would be better than many first lines in the league. Size, speed, playmaker, shooter, and grit. Actually wouldn't mind that deal.

Second is solid as it gets with those three (Higgs/Kesler/Burrows). Chemistry to no end there.

And fourth Martin, size and a hitter with Lapierre, and grit /tenacity with Hansen.

Get'er done when the lockout is done MG!

Edited by BuretoMogilny, 25 October 2012 - 03:33 AM.

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#425 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 03:34 AM

Bjugstad is a future 1st liner, bar none. If you've ever seen this kid play you would know that he dominates every time he's on the ice. He's a 6'5 centre, plays physical, skates like the wind and has a shot to top it all off. Bjugstad would take the reins when the Sedins eventually retire. Because of this Florida's not willing to move him.


That is hilarious. "Bar none". Once again, the size bias is kicking in. He's 6'5", so he's gotta be the next Lindros or Sundin.

How about we wait until he plays a year of professional hockey, or even a single game, before declaring things like this.
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#426 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 03:37 AM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??


Nice to see that someone besides me has thought of this.

Very possible that this could happen, and it would not be good. This is why I think there could be something to the rumors of Lou to Toronto already being done in principle. Can't expose the team to this potentiality.
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#427 drummerboy

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 06:00 AM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??


Good question. The answer is yes. And we give him a giant gift basket and a thank you for raising his value. Schneider is the real deal. He will be a top notch starter either way. Even if Lou goes off the charts Schneider will be our future starter. Lou wants out. Let him boost himself up the send him off.
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#428 RUPERTKBD

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 07:51 AM

Nice to see that someone besides me has thought of this.

Very possible that this could happen, and it would not be good. This is why I think there could be something to the rumors of Lou to Toronto already being done in principle. Can't expose the team to this potentiality.



Yeah, you're right. It wouldn't be good to have a great start from Luongo.

As drummerboy pointed out, it would drive up his value, giving Gillis some extra bargaining power when talking to potential trade partners.
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#429 EmployeeoftheMonth

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 08:40 AM

Nice to see that someone besides me has thought of this.

Very possible that this could happen, and it would not be good. This is why I think there could be something to the rumors of Lou to Toronto already being done in principle. Can't expose the team to this potentiality.

So if Luongo sits on the bench he rots with his trade value. If he plays and plays very well it would not be good.

What an interesting contradiction.
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#430 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:06 AM

So if Luongo sits on the bench he rots with his trade value. If he plays and plays very well it would not be good.

What an interesting contradiction.


No, I said - in response to the question - that if Luongo plays FAR BETTER than Schneider, it would not be good. If Luongo's playing far better than Schneider, and we trade Luongo, suddenly, the pressure on Schneider would be immense - hard to bear. Counter-intuitive for an alleged contender to trade a better-performing player to make room for someone else - who is not as productive - though I guess Mike Gillis did that once already last year, at the deadline. And I know, I know, Schneider's "mature", "mentally strong", etc., but this fanbase is far stronger, and it would not be a good situation at all. Of course, none of you can see this, because you're all living on a planet where everything is always rosy, there are never any problems, never any controversies, and we'd have multiple Cups by now if it weren't for those evil referees.

That's why I believe that Luongo's probably played his last game as a Canuck; exposure to way too many negative outcomes if he's brought back.

Edited by King of the ES, 25 October 2012 - 10:08 AM.

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#431 Get real canuck fans

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:18 AM

At this point it is all about the CBA in regards to Lu and if there is a 2012-13 season.
If there is no 2012-13 season Lu will remain a Canuck well into whenever the next season starts to see if he can still be a difference maker because nobody is going to want an average goalie who will turn 35 in the next season(assuming that is 2013-14) that was horrid after the last lockout and would want to take on that insane contract, and coming off a poor season.
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#432 Get real canuck fans

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:23 AM

No, I said - in response to the question - that if Luongo plays FAR BETTER than Schneider, it would not be good. If Luongo's playing far better than Schneider, and we trade Luongo, suddenly, the pressure on Schneider would be immense - hard to bear. Counter-intuitive for an alleged contender to trade a better-performing player to make room for someone else - who is not as productive - though I guess Mike Gillis did that once already last year, at the deadline. And I know, I know, Schneider's "mature", "mentally strong", etc., but this fanbase is far stronger, and it would not be a good situation at all. Of course, none of you can see this, because you're all living on a planet where everything is always rosy, there are never any problems, never any controversies, and we'd have multiple Cups by now if it weren't for those evil referees.

That's why I believe that Luongo's probably played his last game as a Canuck; exposure to way too many negative outcomes if he's brought back.

Says the guy who is pissed at GMMG for not trading the far better goalie last year(Schneider) when it was very evident that Cory was outplaying Lu by a significant margin, and not factor in the 7 years age difference going forward and is cheaper.

Edited by Get real canuck fans, 25 October 2012 - 10:24 AM.

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#433 Gollumpus

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:51 AM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??


Yes, and for an even bigger price tag than he has right now.

regards,
G.
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#434 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:02 AM

Says the guy who is pissed at GMMG for not trading the far better goalie last year(Schneider) when it was very evident that Cory was outplaying Lu by a significant margin, and not factor in the 7 years age difference going forward and is cheaper.


Huh? Luongo was fine last year. Schneider had better numbers, but he was also the backup, meaning more rest, and (in general) easier opposition.

My point this whole time has been that Luongo's good enough. IF Schneider's the better goalie - big "if", in my opinion - the variance between the two in performance is probably a lot less than the variance of the quality of package that Schneider could bring us back versus what Luongo could/will. And keeping Luongo, signed until 2022, would've just added stability to this team.
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#435 TmanVan

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:08 AM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??


Halak/ Price situation. You don't trade away the future plain and simple.
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#436 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:10 AM

Huh? Luongo was fine last year. Schneider had better numbers, but he was also the backup, meaning more rest, and (in general) easier opposition.

My point this whole time has been that Luongo's good enough. IF Schneider's the better goalie - big "if", in my opinion - the variance between the two in performance is probably a lot less than the variance of the quality of package that Schneider could bring us back versus what Luongo could/will. And keeping Luongo, signed until 2022, would've just added stability to this team.


Stability... like 7 goals against in playoff games, choking multiple times and the inability to perform in the first two months of a season. I think you're starting to show your true self, that you are a Luongo fan boy beyond all reason. Luongo's a great regular season goalie, he doesn't cut it in the playoffs. True, a Schneider return would be a better return but it's not practical for this team. It was Luongo saying he wants to move on, not Canucks management.

Just accept the reality, that Luongo is on his way out and that waiting will increase the available teams to trade with, and thus the value.
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#437 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 12:15 PM

Just accept the reality, that Luongo is on his way out and that waiting will increase the available teams to trade with, and thus the value.


Oh, I accept the reality that he's on his way out, trust me on that, but I don't accept your assertion that waiting will increase his value. In fact, I think that's a pretty foolish idea. He still controls where he goes, first off, and the longer that we hang on to him, the longer that he's our backup, the more that people - NHL GMs - get comfortable with the idea that he's a backup, and no longer the elite starter that he once was. Him being our backup will make Gillis' bargaining position far, far lower. Luongo only gets older and Gillis only becomes that much more eager to trade him, due to the fact that no GM in their right mind is obviously wanting to allocate $5.33M of scarce cap space to a guy who might play in 25% of the games.
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#438 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 01:07 PM

Once again your premise is false. I believe we went at this 40 odd pages ago, and your assertion still doesn't bare any weight to the on lookers of this topic. I do give you credit for trying.

His value increases as the number of markets available to deal him increase. This number of markets opens as time increases due to these factors:

1. As Luongo theoretically gets benched behind Schneider to start the season, he becomes more anxious to start elsewhere. This opens up potential trade markets like Edmonton or Columbus that Luongo wouldn't previously consider. Sitting on the bench would make any starter want to play elsewhere.

2. As time goes on, the number of teams concerned about their ability to make the playoffs increase. Teams like Toronto, Washington or Tampa Bay would theoretically need assistance in net to get over the playoff bump. Burke and Yzerman at this point become concerned about their positions as GMs, as if these teams were to miss the playoffs yet again, their jobs would certainly be at stake. This would increase their likelihood to not only trade for Luongo, but to overpay.

3. With more time gone in the season, Luongo gets over those infamous early start jitters. He would be in top shape and possibly out play Schneider by mid February. This is about the same time teams outside the playoff picture would be looking for an upgrade in goal. A vintage Luongo by the trade dealine would certainly have teams foaming at the mouth.

I understand most of this is speculation, but that is all we can really do at this point. The one scenario which cannot be accounted for is the worst possible case, in which Luongo serves the entire season here as a 'backup' unwilling to waive his no trade clause. This decreases his value sharply. No team would want a player that self concerned, making him unattractive to any of his listed teams. At this point one would have to think that Luongo to salvage his career would have to either completely waive his no trade clause or accept any team that will take him. Once again all theoretical.

I do believe there is a timeline from which the best return for Luongo is possible. That would occur before the season starts and mid-February up to the trade deadline. I am making this case not on the basis of teams needs but on the basis of GM's panicking; which as history has shown GMs will overpay. The worst possible scenario is if Gillis pulls a Howson and deals Luongo in the dead of summer for next to nothing.
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#439 D-Money

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:53 PM

In the past I have mentioned that I wouldn't be completely against doing a trade with Tampa involving Lecavalier. However, that contract most certainly does suck.

But if there's a provision in the new CBA for a team to retain salary and cap for a player they are trading away, and Stevie Y is willing to keep 1/3 of it, does that make Vinny more acceptable?

...Just speculating...
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#440 The Bookie

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:05 PM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??


I don't see that changing anything, the deciding factor regardless is who gets the better return. In theory at least.

off-topic - D-Money, you're back. I thought you swore off the boards until the lockout was over?
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#441 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:25 PM

His value increases as the number of markets available to deal him increase. This number of markets opens as time increases due to these factors:

1. As Luongo theoretically gets benched behind Schneider to start the season, he becomes more anxious to start elsewhere. This opens up potential trade markets like Edmonton or Columbus that Luongo wouldn't previously consider. Sitting on the bench would make any starter want to play elsewhere.


I'm not sure that you're understanding the ramifications of this decision for Luongo and his family. He's still got 9 years left on his deal. This isn't a deadline acquisition for a to-be UFA. You really think that Luongo's going to get antsy and make a decision like this, including uprooting his family, on a whim?

2. As time goes on, the number of teams concerned about their ability to make the playoffs increase. Teams like Toronto, Washington or Tampa Bay would theoretically need assistance in net to get over the playoff bump. Burke and Yzerman at this point become concerned about their positions as GMs, as if these teams were to miss the playoffs yet again, their jobs would certainly be at stake. This would increase their likelihood to not only trade for Luongo, but to overpay.


You're again not considering the magnitude of the commitment being taken on by the acquirer. Not a deadline acquisition. Not Sami Pahlsson. If you acquire Luongo, you're attaching yourself to that guy until 2022 (or earlier, if he chooses to retire, which is a choice of his, and not the team's).

I understand most of this is speculation, but that is all we can really do at this point. The one scenario which cannot be accounted for is the worst possible case, in which Luongo serves the entire season here as a 'backup' unwilling to waive his no trade clause. This decreases his value sharply. No team would want a player that self concerned, making him unattractive to any of his listed teams. At this point one would have to think that Luongo to salvage his career would have to either completely waive his no trade clause or accept any team that will take him. Once again all theoretical.


Of course he's self-concerned. He bargained, in good faith, to get that NTC when he signed his contract, to protect himself against a terrible situation like the one that he's found himself in. I can't see him "settling" for a place like Columbus, simply because he wants to start. He's got a family to worry about - for the next 9 years of their life. Pretty major life decision that I can't imagine will be taken lightly.

I do believe there is a timeline from which the best return for Luongo is possible. That would occur before the season starts and mid-February up to the trade deadline. I am making this case not on the basis of teams needs but on the basis of GM's panicking; which as history has shown GMs will overpay. The worst possible scenario is if Gillis pulls a Howson and deals Luongo in the dead of summer for next to nothing.


Really, so my entire premise is wrong, but you're repeating exactly what I've said. OK.
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#442 Get real canuck fans

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:31 PM

Huh? Luongo was fine last year. Schneider had better numbers, but he was also the backup, meaning more rest, and (in general) easier opposition.

My point this whole time has been that Luongo's good enough. IF Schneider's the better goalie - big "if", in my opinion - the variance between the two in performance is probably a lot less than the variance of the quality of package that Schneider could bring us back versus what Luongo could/will. And keeping Luongo, signed until 2022, would've just added stability to this team.



The king of bs changing his tune again.
10;06 this morning he states, "Counter-intuitive for an alleged contender to trade a better-performing player to make room for someone else - who is not as productive'
Now his whole point is that Schneider may be better, but they will get a better return so trade the better goalie.
Schneider has more value to every team, including OURS because he is younger, cheaper and better,,so you want to trade him??????????
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#443 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:35 PM

Schneider has more value to every team, including OURS because he is younger, cheaper and better,,so you want to trade him??????????


Not anymore. Luongo's as good as gone.

But overall, yes, I believe it would've made far more sense to have traded Schneider when his value was at its peak. Buying low and selling high is usually a pretty good principle - not the reverse, which is what we're currently doing with Luongo.

Does that register with you?
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#444 oldnews

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:01 PM

Of course, none of you can see this


the more that people - NHL GMs - get comfortable with the idea that he's a backup, and no longer the elite starter that he once was. Him being our backup will make Gillis' bargaining position far, far lower. Luongo only gets older and Gillis only becomes that much more eager to trade him, due to the fact that no GM in their right mind is obviously wanting to allocate $5.33M of scarce cap space to a guy who might play in 25% of the games.


And keeping Luongo, signed until 2022, would've just added stability to this team.


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Edited by oldnews, 25 October 2012 - 05:20 PM.

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#445 WHL rocks

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:01 PM

I don't see that changing anything, the deciding factor regardless is who gets the better return. In theory at least.

off-topic - D-Money, you're back. I thought you swore off the boards until the lockout was over?

Schneider definitely gets you the better return.
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#446 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:04 PM

I'm not sure that you're understanding the ramifications of this decision for Luongo and his family. He's still got 9 years left on his deal. This isn't a deadline acquisition for a to-be UFA. You really think that Luongo's going to get antsy and make a decision like this, including uprooting his family, on a whim?



You're again not considering the magnitude of the commitment being taken on by the acquirer. Not a deadline acquisition. Not Sami Pahlsson. If you acquire Luongo, you're attaching yourself to that guy until 2022 (or earlier, if he chooses to retire, which is a choice of his, and not the team's).



Of course he's self-concerned. He bargained, in good faith, to get that NTC when he signed his contract, to protect himself against a terrible situation like the one that he's found himself in. I can't see him "settling" for a place like Columbus, simply because he wants to start. He's got a family to worry about - for the next 9 years of their life. Pretty major life decision that I can't imagine will be taken lightly.



Really, so my entire premise is wrong, but you're repeating exactly what I've said. OK.


Well if i'm repeating what you've said then why do you argue against time not working to improve the trade?

Take a firm stand on something dude, you've flip flopped more than Mitt Romney. I see you opted to ignore my 3rd point, that Luongo would be worth more in February. Two of your response points focus on the length of Luongo's deal, something you even acknowledged in the past as probably being a 4-5 year deal depending on when he retires. Even if he doesn't retire, making 1 mil as a back up with a 5.3m cap hit is attractive to those teams trying to reach the cap floor, making part of his contract attractive. You then make this a family thing about uprooting his home, when it is widely known his wife and children stay in Florida during the season, making this point moot.

If I've gathered anything from your frequent change of position it's that you believe Luongo's value declines as time goes on based solely on bargaining power, not taking into effect the needs of other teams. I have since proven this false, as much as your attempted smokescreen tried to elude this fact. You also make the claim that Luongo has the sole ability to choose wherever he goes, which while true ignores the fact that time will force Luongo's hand in changing teams. He's on his way out bar none, it's really a matter of when/where he is going, factors which with time will become more attractive.
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#447 Get real canuck fans

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:09 PM

Not anymore. Luongo's as good as gone.

But overall, yes, I believe it would've made far more sense to have traded Schneider when his value was at its peak. Buying low and selling high is usually a pretty good principle - not the reverse, which is what we're currently doing with Luongo.

Does that register with you?


How would a team ever win if they traded every player at their peak?
If Cory wins a cup or a Vezina do you think his value will go up?
Keeping an aging goalie who has struggled mightily at crucial times over the last 4 playoffs and not likely to get better is brilliant strategy.
Is always better to buy low and trade high of course,,but I do not think we have seen the peak of Schneider's value to us or any trade partners.
We could get a good return for Cory and take a chance with Lu who was horrible after the last lockout and is now much older.
I have zero confidence that Lu will be better than Cory in the next 10 years,,5 years or whenever they play again because Cory is better and over time the he will pull further ahead of Lu. The reason we went with Cory the last 3 games last year is because he is better NOW.
I believe going with the younger, cheaper, BETTER goaltender that wants to be here and getting nothing for Lu is better than keeping Lu who does not want to be here and getting whatever the trade value of Cory is.
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#448 Riviera82

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:51 PM

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??


Absolutely, because whether or not Luongo outplays Cory during the season, Gillis knows Luongo will flame out in the playoffs the way he always does, most likely causing us to be eliminated.
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#449 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:53 PM

Well if i'm repeating what you've said then why do you argue against time not working to improve the trade?


You said that the best time would be before the season starts. That's what I've been saying this whole time.

Take a firm stand on something dude, you've flip flopped more than Mitt Romney. I see you opted to ignore my 3rd point, that Luongo would be worth more in February. Two of your response points focus on the length of Luongo's deal, something you even acknowledged in the past as probably being a 4-5 year deal depending on when he retires. Even if he doesn't retire, making 1 mil as a back up with a 5.3m cap hit is attractive to those teams trying to reach the cap floor, making part of his contract attractive. You then make this a family thing about uprooting his home, when it is widely known his wife and children stay in Florida during the season, making this point moot.


I have not flip-flopped at all; is that all that you guys have as a retort? Where have I flip-flopped?

Luongo will not be worth more in February. Why? Because Gillis will be desperate to unload him, and bidders will adjust their offer. Gillis is far more eager to offload him than anyone will be to acquire him, which puts him in a weak spot.

And where have I acknowledged that Luongo's deal will be 4 - 5 years? I haven't. Unless Luongo decides to retire, it's to be assumed that it's going until 2022. I'm assuming that it's going until 2022.

And BTW, I'm pretty sure that Luongo's family has moved to Vancouver. They spend their off-seasons in Florida.

If I've gathered anything from your frequent change of position it's that you believe Luongo's value declines as time goes on based solely on bargaining power, not taking into effect the needs of other teams. I have since proven this false, as much as your attempted smokescreen tried to elude this fact. You also make the claim that Luongo has the sole ability to choose wherever he goes, which while true ignores the fact that time will force Luongo's hand in changing teams. He's on his way out bar none, it's really a matter of when/where he is going, factors which with time will become more attractive.


Number 1, stop saying that my position is frequently changing, because that's just false and you're just using the canned retort of this site, much like "he was injured!" is the automatic response for Canuck non-performers like Kesler in the playoffs.

You haven't proven anything false. That is funny that you're asserting your opinion as fact, though. Nice work. "The needs of other teams" isn't going to change much - who needs a goalie? Make a list of the teams that might have a realistic interest in Luongo - not many. That list will then need to be whittled to teams that Luongo either won't go to, or Gillis won't trade him to. Shrinks even more. Other teams' need will always be a secondary concern. Mike Gillis will want to unload Luongo more than anyone will want to acquire him. That's what you're missing. Think Vancouver's keen to pay their backup goaltender $5.3M per year? Who's under pressure here?
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#450 King of the ES

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 05:57 PM

Keeping an aging goalie who has struggled mightily at crucial times over the last 4 playoffs and not likely to get better is brilliant strategy.


Is he the only Canuck that's struggled? Where was Burrows this year? Kesler? Booth?

Where were the twins in the SCF? Where was Kesler?
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