He's going to be moved for something that will have less of an impact on this team - that is for certain.
Well, when you're the team trading away the best player in the deal (I think you and I would agree on this point) it is pretty certain that, at least on an individual basis, the guys you are getting back will have less of an impact. Luongo is an elite goalie, and unless he was being traded, one-for-one for a different position player of equal worth, that the individual players will have less of an impact. This should not come as a surprise to anyone. Look at the Nash deal. As individual players, will Artem Anisimov, Brandon Dubinsky or Tim Erixon be equal to Rick Nash?
This being said, while the individual parts the Canucks get back will be "less", this does not mean that as a group
they could have a very significant, positive impact on this team.
The only way that this team wouldn't take a step back in the immediate term from trading Luongo is if he were to be moved for a guy who will score 25 - 30 goals immediately and consistently. From what we've heard - IE, Florida not being interested in even giving up ho-hum Nick Bjugstad - we're a far, far ways away from that.
So, Gillis getting a guy who could score only 20 - 25 goals would be a bust?
You have gone to the worst case scenario again. You start by saying that Luongo will "be moved for something that will have less of an impact on this team" and then put a rather high value on what would be needed in return for Luongo for this deal to be a success. This enters the realm of self-fulfilling prophecies.
Much like Nash being moved for several "lesser" assets, Luongo will be moved for lesser players. Deal with it.
In trades for high value assets, you rarely see two guys of equal value being traded for one another. One team moves a star player, while the other team sends prospects, and/or picks and/or roster players to give something back to try and equal the value.
To meet the 25 - 30 goal target you have set for a Luongo trade to be a success, the Canucks would, for example, have to get Fleischmann from Florida (27 g), or Kessel or Lupul from Toronto. Those teams, moving these players would pretty much defeat the purpose of them getting Luongo, so why would they do the deal? They would want to trade a less essential asset, which would allow their teams more success now.
Gillis is aware of this, and for the "impact roster player" component I think he is willing to take a guy who will make a bit less of an impact, but he will still make an impact. In exchange for this "favor" of letting the other team keep their valuable roster players, Gillis has made it clear he wants a top prospect and a 1st in addition to the roster player he gets.
So the deal is, the other team gets the best player in the deal who can help them win now (plus some filler - maybe a lesser prospect and/or pick to equal out the number of contracts), in exchange for a good prospect, a 1st, and a good (not great) roster player who can help the Canucks win, now and later.
Following the Canucks since before Don Cherry played here.