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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 3.0


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According to the Oiler's media guy, Edmonton is going to make a big trade splash once the CBA is signed. It don't get much bigger than trading for a starting goalie within your division.

Oilers have a lot of prospects the Canucks could fill the cupboard with.

Lu, Sauve, Shroeder, 1st

For

RNH

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In that scenario, we'll have lost 1 or 2 key potential buyers, which would just make any remaining buyers (if > 1) have more leverage.

I see your "indirect" point, yes. Don't imagine that Florida would get anything close to a 1st for Theodore, but that's fine. Again, though, in this scenario, you're betting on a highly improbable outcome. There would first need to be a season-ending injury to a playoff team's goalie; that playoff team would then need to acquire 1 of some other teams' goalies; and that other team would need to both have an interest in Luongo and be a place that Luongo would be willing to move to.

Just too many risks associated with hanging onto him. If Gillis is smart, there's already a deal in place for Lou once the dispute is resolved.

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It even says in the article that it'd likely be one of their abundance of wingers that goes, Paajarvi and Hemsky were both mentioned specifically. Gagner was mentioned but so was their lack of top end center depth if they move him. We won't get RNH, Yakupov, Hall or Eberle (and of course not Schultz).

They'd look at goaltending possibly (if it didn't cost too much to acquire) and likely a D that could step into their top 4. They don't want to take on a bunch of cap space. I tried to think of any deals with us from the Oilers perspective.

Maybe something similar to:

Luongo, Connauton, 2nd

for

Paajarvi, Khabibulin, 1st

Perhaps a larger cap deal, switching Connauton with Ballard, and Paajaravi with Hemsky, but the possibility of a deal of this size with a division rival is slim to none. More likely the deal is with someone else if there is one at all.

Maybe (and this is a big maybe) we see the following:

Connauton, 1st

for

Paajarvi, 2nd

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Well, I did say it was from the Oilers perspective. I doubt their 1st is that late in the round, maybe they make the playoffs but they're less likely to improve greatly just due to getting Luongo than someone like the Leafs. Certainly what they lose with Hemsky and Gagner (and to a lesser extent Paajarvi) isn't going to be replaced by Raymond and Sauve.

Dubnyk was actually pretty good down the stretch for them and wasn't Khabi pretty good to start the year? They still ended up second to last in the league despite that. Their whole team needs to be better and they can't run and gun the whole season, relying on their young stars to put up a bunch of offence and carry the team.

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Another thing that nobody else seems to be considering is Luongo. He's been civil so far, but who knows how long that'll last. He could very easily decide to start putting some pressure on Gillis if this thing keeps dragging on for too long. And then his value drops even further. Just too much risk. Cut bait and move on.

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Edmonton’s biggest needs are experienced D men and goaltending.

Assuming 1) J. Schultz is off the table, and 2) that they are actually talking with us, one of their “big four” forwards is the only thing they have worth having. I can’t see MG being interested in guys like Hemsky, Gagner, and Pajarvi since we already have better players in those roles. Wouldn’t rate as a “splash” trade either since they’ve all been rumored to be on the block since forever (of course with attention craving reporters one never knows).

A legitimate potential game breaker, with talent on par with other front line star players, is what we need. Just between us, Kassian, Jansen and Gaunce, while probable good top 9 players in the making, do not project as elite talents. The era of Sedin domination will close soon and our max spending ways ensures that we will be a middling team in the draft order for some time. Meaning we’ll have to luck out to draft a superstar.

Of those four Yakupov has to be viewed as the one they’d most likely deal, for a variety of reasons, including: least proven, not a North American, not yet part of their youngster’s clique, Hall and Eberle just signed long contracts, RNH thought to have most upside by their followers, etc. Yak grew up a Bure fan so that works as well. A realistic, equitable, no BS “hockey deal” would see something like:

Luango and Edler for

Yakupov and one of their better D prospects like Klefbom, Musil, etc.

plus whatever lesser assets need swapping.

Our defense will suffer for it in the short term, but not to the extent that our upfront firepower will when the Sedin slow down hits in earnest. Bieksa and Garrison can handle PP duties, Ballard plays better with more ice time, and Connaughton looks to be ready or close to. Corrado is not far behind. Such a move would allow for a Detroit type competitive model for a longtime. IMO, if we don’t win it all this season we won’t be in serious contention for some time, absent some radical move as suggested.

Luango by himself (meaning no other significant assets) will not fetch a member of their “big four” but Schneider (plus some less significant assets) probably would. A Schneider plus deal for Yak, though not as enticing from our end, is also worth thinking about.

I’d go the Luango route if the Oilers and Lou are willing. They won’t get a better D man/goaltender combo anywhere else, and Edler and Schultz on their PP will be dynamite along with their kid line. Playoff revenues would become a distinct possibility.

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Um, no. Lu was a big part in us getting as far as we did in 2011.

In 2007, he had a GAA of 1.77 and a save percentage of .941.

In 2009 he had a decent GAA of 2.52 and a save percentage .914

His only truly terrible playoff year was 2010. 2012 was mediocre, but not horrible.

Do some research before you assume things.

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Edmonton’s biggest needs are experienced D men and goaltending.

Assuming 1) J. Schultz is off the table, and 2) that they are actually talking with us, one of their “big four” forwards is the only thing they have worth having. I can’t see MG being interested in guys like Hemsky, Gagner, and Pajarvi since we already have better players in those roles. Wouldn’t rate as a “splash” trade either since they’ve all been rumored to be on the block since forever (of course with attention craving reporters one never knows).

A legitimate potential game breaker, with talent on par with other front line star players, is what we need. Just between us, Kassian, Jansen and Gaunce, while probable good top 9 players in the making, do not project as elite talents. The era of Sedin domination will close soon and our max spending ways ensures that we will be a middling team in the draft order for some time. Meaning we’ll have to luck out to draft a superstar.

Of those four Yakupov has to be viewed as the one they’d most likely deal, for a variety of reasons, including: least proven, not a North American, not yet part of their youngster’s clique, Hall and Eberle just signed long contracts, RNH thought to have most upside by their followers, etc. Yak grew up a Bure fan so that works as well. A realistic, equitable, no BS “hockey deal” would see something like:

Luango and Edler for

Yakupov and one of their better D prospects like Klefbom, Musil, etc.

plus whatever lesser assets need swapping.

Our defense will suffer for it in the short term, but not to the extent that our upfront firepower will when the Sedin slow down hits in earnest. Bieksa and Garrison can handle PP duties, Ballard plays better with more ice time, and Connaughton looks to be ready or close to. Corrado is not far behind. Such a move would allow for a Detroit type competitive model for a longtime. IMO, if we don’t win it all this season we won’t be in serious contention for some time, absent some radical move as suggested.

Luango by himself (meaning no other significant assets) will not fetch a member of their “big four” but Schneider (plus some less significant assets) probably would. A Schneider plus deal for Yak, though not as enticing from our end, is also worth thinking about.

I’d go the Luango route if the Oilers and Lou are willing. They won’t get a better D man/goaltender combo anywhere else, and Edler and Schultz on their PP will be dynamite along with their kid line. Playoff revenues would become a distinct possibility.

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