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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 3.0


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Would you prefer a different analogy king?

You have a very nice car. People really would like to have it. (Do I need to re-quote Dreger on Nonis and Luongo? probably, but I'm not going to)

You have a ticket to a lottery and win another very nice car - newer, and even a little faster.

You decide to sell your other car.

After all, you can only drive one car at a time. But then again, there is no brand of car that never needs servicing - in which case, you could just use or need another car.

You aren't really desperate for the money or the space, but who knows, perhaps you'll find a pick-up you could use more.

The first guy that shows up to have a look is one of those guys. You know there are a couple other guys interested - they've called to inquire what your asking price is. This guy kicks the tires, he searches and nit picks - he obviously wants the car - but he's playing a game most of us can easily identify, otherwise he wouldn't be making the effort... He's attempting to justify a low ball offer. In effect, this whole part of the process is a waste of time.

You'd have to be an idiot to sell to that first guy for his first low ball offer. You let him walk away. If he wants the car, he'll have to come back with a ball park offer, particularly when you know there is no other comparable car on the market.

All you've missed out on is a lowball offer that'll be available anytime. Once winter comes, that guy is going to need that car - that would be a better time to sell.

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You keep suggesting that people think Luongo's value will rise if he were ever to be considered a "backup". Perhaps the reason no one is answering that dumb straw question is because it is a figment of your imagination. Luongo's value hasn't dropped - it hasn't risen - it's not as you see it - you are far too dramatic and short-term of a thinker. His value is far more fixed than you perceive - despite the games you buy from Toronto's insignificant media.

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Would you prefer a different analogy king?

You have a very nice car. People really would like to have it. (Do I need to re-quote Dreger on Nonis and Luongo? probably, but I'm not going to)

You have a ticket to a lottery and win another very nice car - newer, and even a little faster.

You decide to sell your other car.

After all, you can only drive one car at a time. But then again, there is no brand of car that never needs servicing - in which case, you could just use or need another car.

You aren't really desperate for the money or the space, but who knows, perhaps you'll find a pick-up you could use more.

The first guy that shows up to have a look is one of those guys. You know there are a couple other guys interested - they've called to inquire what your asking price is. This guy kicks the tires, he searches and nit picks - he obviously wants the car - but he's playing a game most of us can easily identify, otherwise he wouldn't be making the effort... He's attempting to justify a low ball offer. In effect, this whole part of the process is a waste of time.

You'd have to be an idiot to sell to that first guy for his first low ball offer. You let him walk away. If he wants the car, he'll have to come back with a ball park offer, particularly when you know there is no other comparable car on the market.

All you've missed out on is a lowball offer that'll be available anytime. Once winter comes, that guy is going to need that car - that would be a better time to sell.

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Would you prefer a different analogy king?

You have a very nice car. People really would like to have it. (Do I need to re-quote Dreger on Nonis and Luongo? probably, but I'm not going to)

You have a ticket to a lottery and win another very nice car - newer, and even a little faster.

You decide to sell your other car.

After all, you can only drive one car at a time. But then again, there is no brand of car that never needs servicing - in which case, you could just use or need another car.

You aren't really desperate for the money or the space, but who knows, perhaps you'll find a pick-up you could use more.

The first guy that shows up to have a look is one of those guys. You know there are a couple other guys interested - they've called to inquire what your asking price is. This guy kicks the tires, he searches and nit picks - he obviously wants the car - but he's playing a game most of us can easily identify, otherwise he wouldn't be making the effort... He's attempting to justify a low ball offer. In effect, this whole part of the process is a waste of time.

You'd have to be an idiot to sell to that first guy for his first low ball offer. You let him walk away. If he wants the car, he'll have to come back with a ball park offer, particularly when you know there is no other comparable car on the market.

All you've missed out on is a lowball offer that'll be available anytime. Once winter comes, that guy is going to need that car - that would be a better time to sell.

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Oh, yes, that Toronto media! They're out to screw the city of Vancouver and the Canucks!

First of all, if it's true that his value hasn't dropped, then why are people giving us "lowball offers" like you keep suggesting? Does that not sound contradictory to you?

Secondly, I'm not saying that he's a worse PLAYER, I'm saying that the MARKET DYNAMICS have changed. He wants out. The whole world knows it. We've signed Schneider and we're going with him. That is not a secret. That is not a "bluff". MG has shown his hand, and Luongo has shown his. He's on his way out. To which, as far as I know, you agree.

KNOWING THIS, teams simply are not going to offer much - unless they desperately want him, which clearly doesn't appear to be the case. Again, I will bring up the example of a piece of real estate. You can have the nicest house on the block, but if the market experiences a sharp downturn, for whatever reason, and you don't feel like the value of your home has changed, you're simply wrong; it has. People will not be willing to pay what they would've last year, when the market was hot. The market for Luongo is cold. And if the strategy is to hang on to him until the deadline, hoping that some team will get desperate and overpay, that is a serious, serious risk.

You're really suggesting that Luongo's value today isn't worse than what it was last year?

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So how do they work? A guy at Roberto's age and with Roberto's contract, now an NHL backup, will just suddenly become a hot commodity to teams not in the playoffs and a bidding war will be created out of thin air? I wonder if that's what Hawk fans assumed would happen to Cristobal Huet.

The reason why this won't happen is that the number of suitors won't change - find me more than 3 - 5 teams who might have a realistic interest in bringing in Luongo, and who Luongo might have a realistic interest in going to. They don't exist. Couple this with the knowledge that we do need to trade him, and I see this as a scenario where the buyer, and not the seller, has all of the leverage.

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Uh-huh. And what happens if those 3 - 5 teams get off to unexpectedly good starts, with their goaltenders playing well? What if interest in a 34 year-old backup with a 9-year contract wanes? What then? Do you just ignore those possibilities and hope and pray that the best-case scenario plays out? Sounds pretty irresponsible, to me!

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Make light of the scenarios that I brought up, but they're very real. Even if 1 or 2 of the suitors have unexpectedly good years, this further reduces the pool of buyers, further lowering the probable return.

This is why there's urgency.

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This is typical of how you operate. "Will suddenly become a hot commodity" blah blah "out of thin air" blah blah.. Again, your dramatic straw arguments.

Who needs more than 3 to 5 teams with realistic interest. There is only one Luongo - the Canucks aren't looking to move 3 to 5 Luongos. Derp. There is no unanimity required.

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The bolded sentences are where your analogy don't add up.

#1, there should be a sense or urgency to trade him. As I've said repeatedly, and to which nobody has provided a reasonable counter, his value WILL NOT RISE as our backup goaltender, which he will be, if he's still on our team on opening night. In addition to the terrible optics of trying to move a 34 year-old backup goaltender with 9 years remaining on his contract, there will be a distraction of epic proportions following this team with each day that he is still a member of it. And you are dreaming if you don't think that that'd have an effect on the psychology of Cory Schneider, and the rest of the team. The amount of bad scenarios that could play out are endless; what if Schneider just plays himself out of the starting job, then Luongo comes in and dominates? Then what? Do we trade Schneider? Do we beg Luongo to stick with us, while we try to find a team for Schneider?

#2, what's a "lowball" today will be even less in 365 days, if he's still with us at that time. Cars depreciate very rapidly with each passing year, as do 34 year-old backup goaltenders with big contracts.

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and...maybe your assessment is wrong...Lous an aging, middle of the pack goalie with some serious flaws in his physical and mental game who has not proven to be consistant in the playoffs....whats that worth on the market? The Canucks appear to have chosen Schneids going forward...ever ask yourself why? Maybe management have lost faith in Lou....and teams will research why.

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what was the assessment again? that's the part you would need to know before you pretend to know whether it's right or wrong.

I don't need to ask myself why they've chosen Schneider - there are very few teams that wouldn't choose him over their starter - and I also doubt there are many teams that need to 'research' this at this point.

btw - your assessment of Luongo is wrong.

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what was the assessment again? that's the part you would need to know before you pretend to know whether it's right or wrong.

I don't need to ask myself why they've chosen Schneider - there are very few teams that wouldn't choose him over their starter - and I also doubt there are many teams that need to 'research' this at this point.

btw - your assessment of Luongo is wrong.

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