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ConnorFutureGM

Luongo Trade Theory 101

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There are lots of proposal with Luongo going to every team but several variables are ignored.

1. The Market

- There aren't many goalie openings in the NHL, approximately 60. Of those 60, 30 of them are starting positions and since Luongo gets starter money, his openings are cut in half.

- Of the 30 starting positions, most are already occupied. Here is a list of teams possibly in the market for a goalie: Chicago, Columbus, Edmonton, Florida, New Jersey, NYI, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Toronto.

- Now down to 9 teams, how many of those teams would Luongo waive his NTC to go to? The ones he wouldn't go to IMO are Columbus, the NYI and Toronto.

- The remaining 6 teams are Chicago, Edmonton, Florida, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Some of these teams are not financially strong enough to handle Luongo's contract. That scratches Tampa Bay, New Jersey and Florida unless Gillis is willing to take equal money (contract dollar value, not cap value) in return. Luongo's has 43.666 million towards him for the next 7 years. Canucks would need to take something similar to that back to trade with one of these smaller market teams.

- Are there teams Gillis would refuse to trade Luongo to? Chicago and Edmonton maybe?

- Would Philadelphia buyout a big contract in Bryzgalov's and then trade for a big one in Luongo's?

2. Assessing Value

- Value is determined by the highest bidding team. With that being said, every team would be offering the least possible return. Potential Luongo trading partners are going to see a limited market combined with a likely lowering and Luongo's big contract as Luongo being a burden.

- What would Gillis being looking for? Would he want to strengthen the Canucks team now or get cap relief with assets that are future based?

3. Other Canuck Assets

- Just because the Canucks have disposable assets (ie Ballard, Raymond, Booth, etc) it doesn't mean that other teams want them and it especially doesn't mean that it adds value to the trade.

- Adding other assets to any Luongo trade over complicate the trade and makes it less likely.

In Conclusion

Keep all the other variables in mind when proposing Luongo trades.

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There are lots of proposal with Luongo going to every team but several variables are ignored.

1. The Market

- There aren't many goalie openings in the NHL, approximately 60. Of those 60, 30 of them are starting positions and since Luongo gets starter money, his openings are cut in half.

- Of the 30 starting positions, most are already occupied. Here is a list of teams possibly in the market for a goalie: Chicago, Columbus, Edmonton, Florida, New Jersey, NYI, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Toronto.

- Now down to 9 teams, how many of those teams would Luongo waive his NTC to go to? The ones he wouldn't go to IMO are Columbus, the NYI and Toronto.

I wouldn't be so quick to scratch Toronto off the list.

- The remaining 6 teams are Chicago, Edmonton, Florida, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Some of these teams are not financially strong enough to handle Luongo's contract. That scratches Tampa Bay, New Jersey and Florida unless Gillis is willing to take equal money (contract dollar value, not cap value) in return. Luongo's has 43.666 million towards him for the next 7 years. Canucks would need to take something similar to that back to trade with one of these smaller market teams.

- Are there teams Gillis would refuse to trade Luongo to? Chicago and Edmonton maybe?

Gillis might refuse Edmonton b/c they're in the same division but Chicago would still be a possibility. Theoretically. IRL Chicago doesn't want him.

- Would Philadelphia buyout a big contract in Bryzgalov's and then trade for a big one in Luongo's?

I wouldn't even put Philly as one of the teams in the market for a goalie b/c of the Bryzgalov situation. They just can't afford it.

2. Assessing Value

- Value is determined by the highest bidding team. With that being said, every team would be offering the least possible return. Potential Luongo trading partners are going to see a limited market combined with a likely lowering and Luongo's big contract as Luongo being a burden.

- What would Gillis being looking for? Would he want to strengthen the Canucks team now or get cap relief with assets that are future based?

I think Gillis would want a high end prospect and a player that fits into a hole in our roster now.

3. Other Canuck Assets

- Just because the Canucks have disposable assets (ie Ballard, Raymond, Booth, etc) it doesn't mean that other teams want them and it especially doesn't mean that it adds value to the trade.

So true.

- Adding other assets to any Luongo trade over complicate the trade and makes it less likely.

Exactly. People propose these huge three team, 8 player trades. Those will never happen.

In Conclusion

Keep all the other variables in mind when proposing Luongo trades.

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Sadly, there is no way to convince all the haters who just want him gone.

Some people undervalue Lu so much it's embarrassing.

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I've always believed wherever Luongo got traded to, he could bring a top six forward back to Vancouver.

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My "theory" is that: We can't trade him till there's a new CBA so we need to get a new CBA right now so that...

A. He can move on

B. Life can continue normally with Canucks hockey

C. I can actually care about proposals

This isn't really a theory or anything, I dont even know what I'm saying I just want the season to start :( Badly

But now seriously, we have to get fair value in return, or else no deal, no way this is a "cap dump" or anything like that.

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Sadly, there is no way to convince all the haters who just want him gone.

Some people undervalue Lu so much it's embarrassing.

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Luongo's value will be known as soon as the new CBA is in place. If there is no cap reduction or cap reduction with equal rollback then most teams interested in Luongo could afford him and Gillis won't "need" to trade him for cap reasons.

If there is a drop in the cap without a similar drop in player salaries, that will significantly cut the market and put Gillis and the Canucks in a position where they will have to trade him and not take much salary back.

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If there is a cap drop without the corresponding rollback, there would be little to no interest in Malhotra, Ballard, Raymond or Booth.

As far as trading Schnieder and keeping Luongo, the Canucks and Luongo may have passed the point of no return since Luongo requested a trade.

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Sadly, there is no way to convince all the haters who just want him gone.

Some people undervalue Lu so much it's embarrassing.

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Um, do you realize that the OPs post was trying to convince people that the return from Luongo should not be expected to be very high?

Limited buyers = limited return.

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If there is a cap drop without the corresponding rollback, there would be little to no interest in Malhotra, Ballard, Raymond or Booth.

As far as trading Schnieder and keeping Luongo, the Canucks and Luongo may have passed the point of no return since Luongo requested a trade.

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If that limited return doesn't equal what Lu is actually worth and how much he would help his team, then it is foolish to trade him.

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Except that his value will not do anything but drop. Then the return will be even worse.

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I wouldn't usually but Philadelphia is backed by a huge company called Comcast. They are a TV broadcaster and media giant netting over 10 billion dollars a year. They can afford to buyout Bryzgalov if there was such a clause in the new CBA. The question is would they then jump at another big goalie contract after the last one?

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They can afford to but it makes no sense from a hockey standpoint unless there is a drastic change in how buyouts work under the new CBA. If they use the same rules as the old one the buyout is gets really messy due to the contract being front-loaded.

Here are the numbers, assuming Bryz gets bought out at the end of this "season".

Ilya Bryzgalov buyout from CapGeek.com

  • 2013-14: -$690,476

  • 2014-15: $1,309,524

  • 2015-16: $1,309,524

  • 2016-17: $1,809,524

  • 2017-18: $1,809,524

  • 2018-19: $5,059,524

  • 2019-20: $6,059,524

  • 2020-21: $1,642,857

  • 2021-22: $1,642,857

  • 2022-23: $1,642,857

  • 2023-24: $1,642,857

  • 2024-25: $1,642,857

  • 2025-26: $1,642,857

  • 2026-27: $1,642,857

Note the cap hit for the 2018-2020 seasons, which correspond to the last 2 seasons of Bryzgalov's current contract. Again, this is due to the fact that the contract is front-loaded.

There's no way that Phiily would be willing to do this.

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Except that his value will not do anything but drop. Then the return will be even worse.

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The would only buy him out if there were a free buyout clause.

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Exactly. So unless the rules for the buyout of player salaries change drastically with the new CBA then Philly is off the list of potential destinations for Luongo.

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