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Luongo Trade Theory 101


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#301 Gollumpus

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:33 PM

I think the bruins won the series because the series was played in there style of hockey. Rough and tumble gritty hockey.
Whereas the canucks play a structured skilled style of hockey


Pretty much true. The Canucks played a style which is what the NHL has indicated it wants to become: fast skating with high skill. The officials treated the series as they always have, calling the game with their whistles in their pockets. Of course, this is an excuse, as is the Canucks not playing at 100%.

The Bruins found a way to overcome and win despite these issues, by not having as many guys playing at less than 100%, or playing a style of hockey in the finals which would have seen them living in the penalty box during the regular season. This shows that they were the better team by far, and shows the failing of the Canucks' organization in this regard. :)

regards,
G.
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#302 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 01:10 AM

IMO the return the Canucks get on Luongo will determine the direction the Canucks are headed. If the Canucks get less than what Gillis outlined the Canucks are going to be headed towards a rebuild in the near future.
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#303 theminister

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:18 AM

Florida not only has 35 and 36 year old average goaltenders, but their prospect Jacob Markstrom not only is injury prone, but is also struggling this season in the AHL - 2 and 6 with a .892 sv% - and fighting to keep the starting job in San Antonio as he's getting outplayed by the 30 yr old Grumet-Morris...

Luongo, Rodin
Bjugstad, Petrovic, Upshall.


If the offer was Drew Shore, Petrovic and Upshall for Lou I'd be happy with that.

Shore has the potential to follow a path very similar to Kesler's and Petrovic skates well and has a decent arsenal of shots for a D man. Upshall may be a cap absorbing move but he wouldn't make our forward ranks worse.
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#304 Gollumpus

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:12 AM

If the offer was Drew Shore, Petrovic and Upshall for Lou I'd be happy with that.

Shore has the potential to follow a path very similar to Kesler's and Petrovic skates well and has a decent arsenal of shots for a D man. Upshall may be a cap absorbing move but he wouldn't make our forward ranks worse.


I do like Petrovic and would welcome him in any deal which Vancouver has with Florida. :)

Shore does look like he has some promise. He was a 2nd round pick, and while that is not always a guide as to the future success of the player, it is something which could be used to wheedle a bit more out of Tallon.


Upshall may be a cap absorbing move but he wouldn't make our forward ranks worse.


While he might not make the team worse, is he worth a $3.5 million cap hit to Vancouver for 3 years?

I'm not crazy about Upshall. I don't see him as being the impact roster player which Gillis claims he wants in this deal. Upshall also has a NMC/NTC clause in his contract. He also looks like a Sami Salo as far as being injury prone and has missed a lot of games, no? Getting him would be a risky proposition and would be nothing more than a cap dump (as you have suggested), but if he stayed healthy he could indeed be a very surprising addition.

Florida doesn't really need to make cap room, although Tallon might always be willing to do so should the opportunity arise. If Upshall were to be included in the deal then I'd want a 1st round pick to make up for Shore rather than Bjugstad, and having to take on Upshall. I'd be okay with the pick being Florida's 2014 1st rather than the 2013. Tallon could choose which of the two he wanted to surrender.

To Florida: Luongo:

To Vancouver: Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 2013/2014 1st

regards,
G.

Edited by Gollumpus, 12 December 2012 - 05:13 AM.

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#305 King of the ES

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 01:49 PM

To Florida: Luongo:

To Vancouver: Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 2013/2014 1st


IMO, you're still way out to lunch on your Luongo valuation. I can't imagine Florida paying this kind of price.
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#306 L'Orange

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 02:20 PM

Allow me to clarify for KingofES. He has stated in the past that he can't wait to see the "table scraps we get for Luongo."

I'm not the OP - presuming that this was addressed to me.

You and BUREV simply do not understand market dynamics. Waivers has been discussed for Luongo, according to Dreger. The fact that that's even being considered as an option should give you an indication of the type of offers that we've received.

But, you can also put your head in the sand and ignore that, or claim that Dreger has a vendetta against the Canucks, like others have. Whatever makes you feel better.


I love how Clown of the ES actually changed Employee of the Month's post when he quoted it. Beyond pathetic, really.
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#307 King of the ES

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 04:35 PM

I love how Clown of the ES actually changed Employee of the Month's post when he quoted it. Beyond pathetic, really.


Not sure what you're talking about, but feel free to post whatever you think we'll be getting for Luongo.
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#308 Pears

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:22 PM

Not sure what you're talking about, but feel free to post whatever you think we'll be getting for Luongo.

Once again you're ignoring facts. You changed Employee of the Month's post on the first page.
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In my eyes drouin is overrated he can score in the qmjhl but did nothing in last two gold medal games that canada lost. Fox will be better pro than him talk to me in five yrs

Gaudreau has one NHL goal whereas all your "prized" prospects have none.

   ryan kesler is going to the chicago blackhawks ...       quote me on it


#309 King of the ES

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:25 PM

Once again you're ignoring facts. You changed Employee of the Month's post on the first page.


I'm not ignoring anything. How can I change someone's post?
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#310 oldnews

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:26 PM

IMO the return the Canucks get on Luongo will determine the direction the Canucks are headed. If the Canucks get less than what Gillis outlined the Canucks are going to be headed towards a rebuild in the near future.


Nonsense. I'm about as convinced by your claim that the Canucks, depending on the return in this deal, could be on the verge of a rebuild as I am that the world is going to end in 9 days.

The word "rebuild|" in this context has literally no meaning.
Apparently you're an Oilers fan - you may wish that fate on Vancouver, but you could scarcely embellish your point any more than you have.

Edited by oldnews, 12 December 2012 - 05:31 PM.

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#311 Pears

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:26 PM

I'm not ignoring anything. How can I change someone's post?

Yes you are, actually. It really is a shame that you're ignoring something that's clear as day.
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In my eyes drouin is overrated he can score in the qmjhl but did nothing in last two gold medal games that canada lost. Fox will be better pro than him talk to me in five yrs

Gaudreau has one NHL goal whereas all your "prized" prospects have none.

   ryan kesler is going to the chicago blackhawks ...       quote me on it


#312 King of the ES

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:35 PM

Yes you are, actually. It really is a shame that you're ignoring something that's clear as day.


You're not making any sense. Explain to me what I did wrong, and where. Then I'll comment.
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#313 Pears

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:41 PM

You're not making any sense. Explain to me what I did wrong, and where. Then I'll comment.

Follow these three easy steps:

1) Go to the first page
2) Read Employee of the Month's post
3) Read your reply to his post
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In my eyes drouin is overrated he can score in the qmjhl but did nothing in last two gold medal games that canada lost. Fox will be better pro than him talk to me in five yrs

Gaudreau has one NHL goal whereas all your "prized" prospects have none.

   ryan kesler is going to the chicago blackhawks ...       quote me on it


#314 oldnews

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:44 PM

If the offer was Drew Shore, Petrovic and Upshall for Lou I'd be happy with that.

Shore has the potential to follow a path very similar to Kesler's and Petrovic skates well and has a decent arsenal of shots for a D man. Upshall may be a cap absorbing move but he wouldn't make our forward ranks worse.


I agree - I'm not set on Bjugstad - and Shore is the type of player who could make a very good third line center. I wouldn't complain if it was Matthias either instead of Bjugstad, and in some ways, I think he could make the most sense, given his readiness to step into the lineup, his low cap hit, his RFA status, and upside that may not have been very evident playing a role on a very offensively challenged Panthers team. Having a young center like him who is a few years older than the Canucks prospects could give them good balance / a bridge.
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#315 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 07:36 PM

IMO, you're still way out to lunch on your Luongo valuation. I can't imagine Florida paying this kind of price.


Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 1st?

That's not unreasonable, Upshall has a bad contract (since they want some $$ coming our way), Shore isn't that great of a prospect (good but nothing special), really the things that hold most of the value for us in this deal are Petrovic and the 1st.
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#316 gizmo2337

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 10:22 PM

*if* there is a season, it's going to be short one. We keep Luongo, make a deep run to the cup, and have this argument again next year. This shall come to pass :)
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#317 theminister

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 10:27 PM

Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 1st?

That's not unreasonable, Upshall has a bad contract (since they want some $$ coming our way), Shore isn't that great of a prospect (good but nothing special), really the things that hold most of the value for us in this deal are Petrovic and the 1st.


Have you seen him play?

He's an excellent prospect. I compared him to Kesler for a reason. Big, wiry, skates extremely well, plays both sides of the puck, has good hands and is will be an increasing physical presence as he gets stronger. His scoring upside will be something we will only know after 2-3 years in the nHL probably but he can already produce now. He's a rookie playing against men for the first time and he is the best forward on the team most nights.

I agree that the Canucks wouldn't get that 1st in a trade for Lou if those other two prospects came over.
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#318 theminister

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 10:48 PM

I do like Petrovic and would welcome him in any deal which Vancouver has with Florida. :)

Shore does look like he has some promise. He was a 2nd round pick, and while that is not always a guide as to the future success of the player, it is something which could be used to wheedle a bit more out of Tallon.


While he might not make the team worse, is he worth a $3.5 million cap hit to Vancouver for 3 years?

I'm not crazy about Upshall. I don't see him as being the impact roster player which Gillis claims he wants in this deal. Upshall also has a NMC/NTC clause in his contract. He also looks like a Sami Salo as far as being injury prone and has missed a lot of games, no? Getting him would be a risky proposition and would be nothing more than a cap dump (as you have suggested), but if he stayed healthy he could indeed be a very surprising addition.

Florida doesn't really need to make cap room, although Tallon might always be willing to do so should the opportunity arise. If Upshall were to be included in the deal then I'd want a 1st round pick to make up for Shore rather than Bjugstad, and having to take on Upshall. I'd be okay with the pick being Florida's 2014 1st rather than the 2013. Tallon could choose which of the two he wanted to surrender.

To Florida: Luongo:

To Vancouver: Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 2013/2014 1st

regards,
G.


Fair enough. I agree with your reasoning behind Upshall but I am less concerned with the Nucks getting an impact player back for this year if we do trade Lou. I am increasingly of the belief that would be unlikely to transpire in an abbreviated season and we shouldn't settle forless than a shot in the arm for our farm system if we can't get it for the roster.

If the Canucks can get a player who can contribute this year as well as two high end prospects who are almost, if not already, NHL ready then I think they should jump at that.

I don't think that MG could get Florida 1st on top of that, it would be an either/or situation for one of the prospects, so a smaller upgrade, if needed, would be looked at. That is, getting Goc or Matthias instead of Upshall in the deal without changing anything else.

*if* there is a season, it's going to be short one. We keep Luongo, make a deep run to the cup, and have this argument again next year. This shall come to pass :)


I think that is as likely a scenario as anything.

Edited by theminister, 12 December 2012 - 10:52 PM.

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#319 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 11:05 PM

Have you seen him play?

He's an excellent prospect. I compared him to Kesler for a reason. Big, wiry, skates extremely well, plays both sides of the puck, has good hands and is will be an increasing physical presence as he gets stronger. His scoring upside will be something we will only know after 2-3 years in the nHL probably but he can already produce now. He's a rookie playing against men for the first time and he is the best forward on the team most nights.

I agree that the Canucks wouldn't get that 1st in a trade for Lou if those other two prospects came over.


Maybe I didn't word that right, he's good, got a nice skillset, but IMO his potential is really nothing special, 2nd/3rd liner. we already have some guys that are big and like that (Gaunce, Mallet)
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#320 Gollumpus

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:15 AM

IMO, you're still way out to lunch on your Luongo valuation. I can't imagine Florida paying this kind of price.


Fixed.

To Florida: Luongo, 2013 1st, Gaunce, Edler.

To Vancouver: a bucket of used tape, a half a roll of un-used tape, and a coupon for a new roll of tape... and Jovanovski.

regards,
G.

Fair enough. I agree with your reasoning behind Upshall but I am less concerned with the Nucks getting an impact player back for this year if we do trade Lou. I am increasingly of the belief that would be unlikely to transpire in an abbreviated season and we shouldn't settle forless than a shot in the arm for our farm system if we can't get it for the roster.

If the Canucks can get a player who can contribute this year as well as two high end prospects who are almost, if not already, NHL ready then I think they should jump at that.

I don't think that MG could get Florida 1st on top of that, it would be an either/or situation for one of the prospects, so a smaller upgrade, if needed, would be looked at. That is, getting Goc or Matthias instead of Upshall in the deal without changing anything else.


I believe we're pretty close on where we are. My proposal was a tweak on the one previously provided.

I've been thinking for a while now that Gillis could make the Luongo deal one for the future.

Looking at the teams which were the likely dance partners with the Canucks, they tend to be of the lower end variety. If they did trade away the type of impact roster player for which Gillis claimed he was looking to get back in this deal, it would likely leave a big hole in their top-6 (assuming they even had a guy who might be useful to the Canucks). Perhaps the best chance of making this a deal for now is if the new CBA allows a new team to enter the bidding.

If the Canucks were to trade with Florida I'd be quite happy to get a return of Petrovic, 2013/2014 1st (Tallon's choice), one of Bjugstad/Shore/Howden (probably in that order of preference), and perhaps Matthias (or Ellerby).

regards,

G.

Edited by Gollumpus, 12 December 2012 - 11:43 PM.

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#321 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 11:31 PM

Fixed.

To Florida: Luongo, 2013 1st, Gaunce, Edler.

To Vancouver: a bucket of used tape, a half a roll of un-used tape, and a coupon for a new roll of tape... and Jovanovski.

regards,
G.


Underpayment, take Jovo out in exchange for a 7th then it might be more fair.
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#322 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:05 AM

Nonsense. I'm about as convinced by your claim that the Canucks, depending on the return in this deal, could be on the verge of a rebuild as I am that the world is going to end in 9 days.

The word "rebuild|" in this context has literally no meaning.
Apparently you're an Oilers fan - you may wish that fate on Vancouver, but you could scarcely embellish your point any more than you have.

If Gillis doesn't get his stated "Impact player, top prospect, 1st rounder" then he is getting what he deems as less than market value for a player who was supposed to be a cornerstone of the Canucks opportunity of winning a Stanley Cup.

The core that was supposed to be bring a cup to Vancouver is already falling apart; Luongo wants out, Edler wants too much money, Kesler will never be the player he was, the Sedins are producing less.

If Gillis can't get maximum return for core members of the Canucks, the ship will start sinking faster than the water is being pumped out of it.
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#323 oldnews

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:11 AM

Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 1st?

That's not unreasonable, Upshall has a bad contract (since they want some $$ coming our way), Shore isn't that great of a prospect (good but nothing special), really the things that hold most of the value for us in this deal are Petrovic and the 1st.


I disagree with this common characterizaion of Upshall as a cap dump or a bad contract - Florida is a tight budget/salary team, which is the only reason I think a guy like Upshall could be available at a devaluation.
His 3.5 million cap hit is very reasonable for a guy who scores at a 20 to 30 goal pace throughout his career, and does a lot more than score. His downside is not his contract but his health - and when he's not healthy, his cap hit does not apply. He's a guy who could be a third piece in a deal but if playing could potentially be a serious impact roster player, particularly when you consider the types of players he could line up with as team-mates. Imo there are few better risks out there to take.
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#324 Gollumpus

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 01:15 AM

Underpayment, take Jovo out in exchange for a 7th then it might be more fair.


King believes the Canucks have to take back some salary in this deal.

regards,
G.
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#325 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:17 AM

King believes the Canucks have to take back some salary in this deal.


Kk keep Jovo in, we will just have to offer up a 1st aswell, possibly 2.
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#326 oldnews

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:21 AM

If Gillis doesn't get his stated "Impact player, top prospect, 1st rounder" then he is getting what he deems as less than market value for a player who was supposed to be a cornerstone of the Canucks opportunity of winning a Stanley Cup.

The core that was supposed to be bring a cup to Vancouver is already falling apart; Luongo wants out, Edler wants too much money, Kesler will never be the player he was, the Sedins are producing less.

If Gillis can't get maximum return for core members of the Canucks, the ship will start sinking faster than the water is being pumped out of it.



You sound like a Tony Gallagher doomsday type - except that being an Oilers fan, you'd be more comparable to Spector, who loves to troll the Canucks....although he wouldn't make such ridiculous claims as these.
.
The "core is falling apart" takes embellishment to an all new level.

"Fallen apart" into SCF game 7, and then pick themselves up to repeat as President's trophy winners. If the core didn't do that, obvioulsy the periphery is gdamn outstanding as well.
Not much of a case for a rebuild. Hard to take this stuff seriously tbh.
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#327 King of the ES

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 11:09 AM

Petrovic, Shore, Upshall, 1st?

That's not unreasonable, Upshall has a bad contract (since they want some $$ coming our way), Shore isn't that great of a prospect (good but nothing special), really the things that hold most of the value for us in this deal are Petrovic and the 1st.


They wouldn't even give us Nick Bjugstad - a 1st by himself, which is a throw-in in this proposal - so I'm not sure why you think that they'd give us all of this, which is surely a bigger payment by them.
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#328 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:01 PM

They wouldn't even give us Nick Bjugstad - a 1st by himself, which is a throw-in in this proposal - so I'm not sure why you think that they'd give us all of this, which is surely a bigger payment by them.


That's because they don't want to give up Bjugstad, not because it isn't fair value-wise.

Your point?
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#329 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 01:22 PM

You sound like a Tony Gallagher doomsday type - except that being an Oilers fan, you'd be more comparable to Spector, who loves to troll the Canucks....although he wouldn't make such ridiculous claims as these.
.
The "core is falling apart" takes embellishment to an all new level.

"Fallen apart" into SCF game 7, and then pick themselves up to repeat as President's trophy winners. If the core didn't do that, obvioulsy the periphery is gdamn outstanding as well.
Not much of a case for a rebuild. Hard to take this stuff seriously tbh.

You sound like a Tony Gallagher doomsday type - except that being an Oilers fan, you'd be more comparable to Spector, who loves to troll the Canucks....although he wouldn't make such ridiculous claims as these.
.
The "core is falling apart" takes embellishment to an all new level.

"Fallen apart" into SCF game 7, and then pick themselves up to repeat as President's trophy winners. If the core didn't do that, obvioulsy the periphery is gdamn outstanding as well.
Not much of a case for a rebuild. Hard to take this stuff seriously tbh.

We'll see. If Canucks get bounced first or even second round again whenever the next playoff series is, the team is definitely trending downwards. Canucks might have already peaked.

The return on Luongo will make or break the Canucks' future. It will either extend their window or close it faster.
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#330 King of the ES

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 05:08 PM

That's because they don't want to give up Bjugstad, not because it isn't fair value-wise.

Your point?


They don't think it's fair, or else they would make the trade. They think that Nick Bjugstad is more valuable than Roberto Luongo. That's what their message is. So I have no idea how you think that Shore, Petrovic, Upshall, and a 1st would get it done, unless you think Florida would rather have Bjugstad than that package, too.
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