*Official* CBA Negotiations and Lockout Thread

[The Bookie]

When it makes sense not to make a deal

The gap between the NHL and the NHLPA has diminished to the point that it’s almost unbelievable that a deal between the two sides hasn’t been reached yet. As one NHL governor told ESPN after looking at proposals from the league and the union, “I looked at them both and wondered how this thing isn’t done already.”

Aside from figuring out how to spread the financial pain caused by the lockout, it appears that very little separates the two sides. The NHL wants a 10-year deal with a mutual out-clause after eight years; the NHLPA says the same thing except with eight years and six years, respectively. The NHL wants five-year term limits (seven for a team’s own players), with maximum year-to-year variance of five percent. The NHLPA offered eight year term limits with a 25 percent variance. In his press conference on Thursday night, Bill Daly used the term “hill to die on,” but none of these things look like the stuff last stands are made of.

So why isn’t there a deal?

Let’s start by setting aside the argument that Donald Fehr and Gary Bettman are letting their egos and emotion get in the way. Both are highly intelligent men with long experience negotiating. If they didn’t accept the deals proffered by their counterparts, the obvious conclusion is this: because they believe a better deal is coming. And if these negotiations confirmed anything, it is that so far both sides have been right that they can gain more. The single biggest shift was on the “Make Whole” scheme (now off the table, according to Bettman), where both sides were able to agree on a given figure.

Yet, with precious few things left to bargain on now – again, seriously, we’re at the point where things like 1-to-3 year gaps on term limits for contracts have become pivotal issues – the question is whether those gains will come through the collective bargaining process.

For the NHL, the other possibility is that players desperate to play will topple the union leadership. Indeed, they’ve done everything they could to separate the players on the negotiating committee from NHLPA head Donald Fehr. In fact, according to player (and member of both the NHLPA executive board and CBA negotiating committee) Ron Hainsey, it was the NHLPA’s attempt to bring Fehr in to close the deal that soured the NHL on the process:

As confident as some of players are on their issues, we cannot close deals. I’d love to think I could. We cannot. Once we made clear that… we had to get our union leadership, that we’ve hired for this, in the room, there was just a very big change. It was alarming, and I was told that if we were going to do that, it was possibly a deal breaker. That was made clear last night. It was confusing, because we kind of agreed that we were moving toward each other, and we weren’t that far apart. So, it’s confusing for the players to think that we were supposed to finish this ourselves.

The implication is that the NHL hoped to rope the players into closing a deal without the presence of Fehr.

There’s more than one way to skin a cat, though. In 2005, a mutiny within the NHLPA ranks forced Bob Goodenow to accept a salary cap and ultimately led to his ouster as union head. While Gary Bettman was critical of turnover in the NHLPA’s executive director position, the message that Fehr is forcing a fight on the players that they don’t want has been part of the NHL’s communications strategy for months now.

While there’s no question that there are divisions within the NHLPA membership, an internal revolt seems unlikely at this juncture. By the start of November the last time around, multiple players in North America were willing to go on the record in opposition to Bob Goodenow’s stance on the salary cap. The recently retired Rob Ray said that he’d be a replacement player, and that he knew 10 current NHL’ers who would join him. This time, the only public dissent has come from Roman Hamrlik, who has been all but absent from NHLPA meetings and conference calls.

On the NHLPA side, the hope seems to be less that the league will splinter and more that the courts will decide things in favour of the players. Decertification – commonly used to represent both a disclaimer of interest (where the union disclaims its right to represent the players) and full-on decertification (a lengthier process that includes petitions and voting) – has long been hailed as a nuclear tactic for the players because in the absence of a union things like the salary cap and NHL Entry Draft could conceivably disappear. If the lockout is ruled illegal, there’s also the possibility that the players would be awarded heavy damages by the court. Player agents like Allan Walsh and Ian Pulver tweeted their support for decertification on Thursday night.

The problem is that while it could be a knock-out punch for the NHLPA, it’s also uncertain. Here’s legal expert Gabriel A. Feldman prognosticating on the NBAPA’s attempt during that league’s lockout:

Given the complex and novel nature of the legal issues involved– regardless of one’s views on the merits of decertification and disclaimer– it is simply impossible to predict the outcome of an antitrust suit filed by the NBA players. Remember, even in the Brady case, two federal judges sided with the NFL players, and two federal judges sided (in part) with the owners. Granted, the NFL got the two judges it needed, but there’s no guarantee that a different set of judges in a different court will rule the same way. So, neither side should be particularly comfortable with the strength of their legal positions.

Ultimately, in the case of both the NFL and NBA, deals were reached before the courts came to a final decision.

In a nutshell, both sides still have two possibilities to reach a better deal. There’s still significant time for a negotiated settlement – as Gary Bettman indicated in his press conference, the NHL won’t run a season shorter than 48 games, which gives a drop-dead date for the season as sometime in mid-January – but there’s also precious little gap between the two parties. The NHL can look at the recent history of the union, and hope that the NHLPA does to Fehr what it did to Bob Goodenow – allowing the league to once again dictate the majority of the collective bargaining agreement. The NHLPA has the uncertain hope offered by decertification; it’s a big risk but it also offers massive rewards and a chance at definitive victory over the league. Of course, if it fails the NHLPA will have no leverage whatsoever.

Clearly, Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr both see an opportunity to get more. If that’s by way of negotiations, it’s difficult to see the gains as being worth the time lost. If, on the other hand, they’re both looking for the big win, only one of them can be right.

[The Bookie]

My feeling is that we've now seen what the end-game, or original Master Plan, was behind this lockout. Beyond the nitty gritty of revenue and contracts, the aim was to discredit the concept of having a player's union. By offering unrealistic proposals through the fall, continually disappointing the general public (fans, us), and then removing the head of the union, the league could claim triumph over the fact that, in the end, the players only needed themselves to reach a deal. Furthermore, the ongoing line that Fehr (or ____ Director) was unable to properly transmit information to the full constituency. In any potential future negotiations, the NHL would have a fall-back mantra that 700+ players will certainly never be able to be represented by a single head. This is a lockout for future lockouts, in other words.

Everyone remembers Frank Luntz, right? I'd bet real money that part of his strategy was to have a two-week moratorium on negotiations in the second half of November, during which the seeds of this concept would be planted. The tantrum we saw today from Gary Bettman was pent up rage from having the script altered.

[Bodee]

Hi guys, greetings from a wintry Scotland.

Each day I wake up, have breakfast, feed the dog and then open my laptop and log into this thread in the vain hope of good news.

Yesterday morning, or was it Wednesday (damn the time difference is awkward) I couldn't wait to log in after all the positive vibe from the previous day..........I should have known there was no good news as the Canucks front page was unchanged and I knew any "back to hockey" would have been plastered all over it.

At the time of writing this my soccer team is close to going out of business, players are not being paid, Directors are resigning and fans are taking up collections. Two groups of fans raised £4000 between them to help pay the Under 20 players last months salaries which amount to £10,500/month. The club still couldn't pay them.

There has been all manner of mis-administration at the Club over the past 10 years...........but at the end of the day it is the fans who suffer with the likely loss of their Club. These fans, coming up to Christmas are still digging into their pockets to try and save their football team (soccer) a team started in 1885, a team with a history of European success ............

The reasons for this in my view are the same as the reasons for the NHL lockout. The fans are not empowered and worse still are treated by those who run the game/their Club as cash cows who never learn and are so in love with their game/Club they will accept being treated like idiots and dip into their pockets to shell out no matter how they are treated.

I don't know enough about the ins and outs of the administration of the NHL and the players contracts to comment but one thing is certain there is a solution and there will be a settlement............so why is it taking so long? One reason is obvious. The fans have no say and no power to influence the outcome......OR DO THEY.

If I was a member of an NHL hockey club over there I would be trying to set up a fans committee, a Union if you like and then my first task would be an ultimatum to both sides.

SETTLE BY THE 14TH OR TAKE THE REST OF THE SEASON AND NEXT SEASON, because we wont be turning up, we wont be buying merchandise and we won't be buying cable or anything connected with the NHL.

Pickett the offices of the owners and the homes of the major players. I guarantee this dispute would end in a week.

[WHL rocks]

So for 14% of the guys who have signed these 5+ deals, we are going to blow this deal up? Does Manny Malholtra think he can get a 6 years deal some where?

The PA doesn't want a 10 year labour agreement but they want themselves to be able to sign 10+ year labour agreements (player contracts)?

It is a bunch of idiots messing up our great game!

[Heretic]

Typical union mentality. Players want long term contracts so that they don't have to prove that they are worth it game in and game out, year after year. Sign a 10 year contract and float around the ice like they are in Icecapades. IMHO, the contracts should be 1 year max. How the player performs for that contract determines whether he will get resigned and for how much.

Us working stiff have to prove our worth else we're out of a job. Same should be for these players.

[Dogbyte]

Typical union mentality. Players want long term contracts so that they don't have to prove that they are worth it game in and game out, year after year. Sign a 10 year contract and float around the ice like they are in Icecapades. IMHO, the contracts should be 1 year max. How the player performs for that contract determines whether he will get resigned and for how much.

Us working stiff have to prove our worth else we're out of a job. Same should be for these players.

[thad]

The owners did vote, they voted no...

[Heretic]

I agree but they will argue injuries are why they want the guaranteed contract. Otherwise they will not put themselves in danger to make plays and the game would suffer.

It's a bunch of BS from guys who have never had to actually work a real job. Just like spoiled rich kids, they're everywhere.

[Boudrias]

I completely disagree with the notion that Bettman is dazzled or cornered etc... He's the one who took the offer off the table. He's the one who's been in control and keeps control by taking offer off the table. What this does is puts pressure on Fehr. Some players are already asking him why there was no vote.

While I agree with parts of JAH's post, some of it is not factually correct. Players don't lose 1/3 of money and owners lose 1/5 or 1/6 of revenue. This is not how it works.

If there is a shortened season players share and owners share will still be divided as per new CBA. They will both have a smaller pie to share. But they will still get pro rated amount of what they would get with full season.

It is true revenues in Oct and Nov are lower than later months. So the overall revenue is less affected if those 2 months are canceled. But since both sides' share of revenue is tied to HRR this affects both sides equally. When they start work again all the revenue goes into one pot and gets divided as per CBA, (50-50 plus make whole etc.) exactly as it would be with full season.

I think the players will ask to re start negotiations. I don't see owners giving much more. In 3 or 4 weeks if there is no deal the season will be canceled. Not something players want.

[Get real canuck fans]

This is from a blogger on hockeybuzz(Paul McCann),,,may not like ek but it pretty much sums up how I feel,,,

"I have to admit. I bought into the optimism, I bought in to the momentum. Now I look at the wreckage from last night and wonder why. Especially when I start hearing how and why this whole thing blew apart.

Let me start by saying, I have tried my best to keep to the middle here. As someone that walks in the business world, I understand the owners side in this dispute… as someone that also walks in the entertainment world the players points in this make sense as well. What follows is not a rip on the players, I know that the players want what’s best for the game, the problem is, they are being led by a person that had to “learn the game” and while he may have learned it... he doesn't understand it. This mess… this I lay at the feet of one person.

Donald Fehr.

Donald Fehr ruined one sport that I used to be incredibly passionate about. He can claim the Marvin Miller mantel… but this man is no Martin Miller, never has been, never will be. When the MLBPA struck, causing the loss of the World Series in ’94, I was basically done as a baseball fan. It was the end of season strike trying to use the Series as a bargaining chip. That’s why it is incredibly disingenuous to lay the lockout off solely on the owners. History shows that, if the NHL started the season without a CBA, you could’ve counted on a strike in March to put the playoffs at risk. I know that as well as I know my own name.

What crystallized all of this in my mind was a tweet from respected hockey writer, Adrian Dater. Now, if you have been following Adrian on Twitter… he is absolutely not a shill for either side of this dispute. He has been critical of both sides and is a highly respected journalist. If anything, he has been more supportive of the players side.

His tweet from last night…

From deep inside players side: "We were ready to play again. But Don came in (Wed.) and told us we could get more and to hold out"

“We could get more and to hold out” Unbe-frickin’-lievable.

Dater’s take on this is that there is a split developing in the player's ranks, he characterized the player who made the comment he tweeted out last night as a “depth player.” The other key piece of the information Adrian sent out was that “top players still in Fehr camp.” This does make a little sense, considering that the PA is fighting hard for something that doesn’t happen very often… the beyond five year contract. Who gets those contracts? It certainly isn’t the “depth player.” Adrian wrote a great blog on this, here's the link.

The reality is this, Donald Fehr’s membership did an incredible job in doing his job, creating the bridge, opening the communication and moving the process along. Does anyone else find it interesting that as soon as Fehr came back into the room (upon his insistence)the process blew apart?

The attitude of “we could get more” is the biggest problem on both sides of this issue. The constantly shifting priorities (if true) put forth by the NHLPA is designed to drive frustration and is not bargaining in good faith. Did anyone else hear how important pensions were prior to Wednesday? Yeah, me neither. "We could get more" by losing more games and more time and more pay... flat out silly.

The “Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm” appearance in Donald Fehr’s first press conference last night was cold, calculated, manipulative and disgusting. It was also a stupid move on his part. Further proof in my mind that Donald Fehr doesn’t give a (expletive) about the game that we love. At least NHL commissioner Gary Bettman showed some emotion, some passion about our game in his press conference last night… and by the way, for those haters, Bettman understood that he needed to stay out of the room in order to get a deal, Fehr hasn’t learned that lesson yet.

The players want to play, that is undeniable. The owners want to get games on the ice that is also undeniable. The only one who doesn’t want a deal here seems to be Donald Fehr, and he continues to play upon the emotions of his charges. He plays the “owners don’t respect you” card with skill and relish. Fehr understands the mindset of the athlete and is now playing on it for all it is worth. I can imagine Fehr doing his best Reg Dunlap impersonation in a PA conference call… “those owners challenged the Cheifs… errrr… union!” The only problem with this strategy now is that it is exposed. Donald Fehr has now pissed off the moderate owners in this league. How does that help the players get more?

The endgame is now solidly underway. I know that... The shills are out in force on Twitter, blathering on depending on their agenda, casting blame depending on their bias but one thing is true. This is all part of the dirty little game being played out in front of TSN’s cameras, all part of the filthy underside of business negotiations. This process does undermine the fan’s belief and passion for the league, a necessary evil that should never have gotten to this point.

We like the sausage, we just don’t like seeing it made."

[thad]

Yes, but injuries, just like any other workplace, would fall under long term disability. You know, like 60% of your wage, not 100% like these players get with their "guaranteed" salaries...

[TOMapleLaughs]

Fehr is to blame for not getting the players to bend over, yes.

But the owners (primarily Jacobs) are to blame for locking out the players unneccessarily in the first place.

The NHL has gotten PA heads fired before. They may again. But we've seen this too many times before. They think we, the fans and the players, are stupid. It's time to make them pay for their arrogance.

The players may cave, but i'm not. I'm done. Not one dollar of mine is going to the NHL for the forseeable future.

[theminister]

I've been thinking that Fehr has told the union that losing a season, while not preferable especially to the older players, won't hurt their bottom line as the years and salary on their contracts won't change regardless.

Although it would be physically harder for a 35 year old to play at a high level compared to a 36 year old the players with contracts may not lose a dime by waiting.

Just speculation of course but it's the most recent thought I've got about the PA's motivations.

[Shift-4]

I've been thinking that Fehr has told the union that losing a season, while not preferable especially to the older players, won't hurt their bottom line as the years and salary on their contracts won't change regardless.

Although it would be physically harder for a 35 year old to play at a high level compared to a 36 year old the players with contracts may not lose a dime by waiting.

Just speculation of course but it's the most recent thought I've got about the PA's motivations.

[Lillooet_Hillbilly]

I'm currently on a claim from a sawmill explosion and I get 90%. Some how it works out that my cheques are actually slightly bigger than before and I don't quite understand why. I'm guessing it has to be much different for a professional athlete though.

[theminister]

But they lose a whole year of paycheques that way. Wouldn't that mean any deal accepted would need a 33% pay cut (presuming average contract and/or career is three years)?

[Shift-4]

Not if those years don't burn by a lost season.

[Dogbyte]

Does anyone know what percentage of players currently have signed contracts that are longer than 5 years? I would think that it is star players and less than 5% of the league...

[smurf47]

And the more I read, it really sounds like Fehr royally screwed up this whole process ...

This was the deal ... This was the best that they were going to get ... and he didn't even vote on it.

I mean, the league agrees to move make-whole up to $300mil which was exactly half way from NHL and NHLPA's differences, agreed not to touch UFA eligibility, but decided to stay hard on the contract limits and CBA length ... That's 2 out of 4 on the major rifts, man (and considering what WHL Rocks said, I would say the NHL's proposal was reasonable on the contract limits) ... Most would call that good bargaining and compromising at the middle ...

He overplayed his hand and went for the win, hoping for the ace, when he could have broken even with the push at 20.

Busted.

[DeNiro]

Not if those years don't burn by a lost season.