*Official* CBA Negotiations and Lockout Thread

[DarthMelvin]

Well...looks like Mediators are now introduced to help this process along...I hope they can help the NHLPA see that they are being unreasonable lol

I think once they do the NHL Players will then really CAVE~!

[Smashian Kassian]

Anyone hear Bertuzzi's comments? Big Burt is completely right.

"Not very optimistic," he said after a scantily attended players-run practice at Troy Sports Center. "I see us losing a year."

"I think the owners, at this time, are strong-holding it and putting their foot in the sand and not budging," Bertuzzi said. "They want what they want, and that's plain and simple.

"Unfortunately, it's going to take years to build back the revenue. It's going to take a long time. These people are (ticked) right now. They're not just, 'I don't care, I'll come back,' or whatever. Fans are (ticked) now. They're getting to a point where they're not even really paying attention anymore to what's going on. They're sick and tired of hearing the same (stuff) coming out of both sides' mouths, and who can blame them? It's frustrating."

[brewdog]

The more the PA digs its heels in about contracting rights, the more I feel like it's over-representing the top tier players. 95% of the players will never be offered front-loaded 'retirement' contracts. The owners could concede many of those contracting demands, and then come up with their own private agreement not to sign anymore Kovalchuk contracts. They've never been without the power to save themselves from themselves.

So tired of all of this. I was very pro-PA two months ago, but now I don't sympathize with either side. It's like watching a divorce where one person gets the mansion, the other person gets the yacht, but neither person is willing to give up the lawnmower.

If nothing hugely positive comes this week, I think the season is lost.

[The Bookie]

How would a season-long lockout affect the attrition rate of NHL careers?

“There were over 200 players in the NHL who never got employed after that lockout.”

– Mike Keenan on the Mark Spector Show, Monday

I’ve heard a few variations of that statement recently, freely tossed about on talk radio by guest experts and show hosts alike. Maybe I’m hearing it wrong, but it’s always seemingly thrown out there as a cautionary tale to players who are risking their livelihood by not kowtowing the NHL’s latest demands. Don’t you know, the lockout’s gonna shorten your career?

Well, duh. In the bad (but not worst) case scenario that the 2012-13 season is cancelled in the manner of the lost 2004-05 campaign, virtually all players will lose a year out of their NHL careers, be it the beginning, middle, or end. But the implied subtext of that dire “over two hundred!” admonition seems to be, that’s adisproportionately high number of career-enders compared to the normal attrition rate. It’ll be a brave new world out there when (“if”) the NHL resumes and many of the old players won’t be able to cut it after a year or more on the sidelines.

But what is the normal attrition rate? Fortunately, such numbers can be easily obtained thanks to the nifty Player Season Finder function at hockey-reference.com. I started by searching players who played their last season in 2003-04, quickly confirming the “over 200″ number that’s being tossed around lately. There were in fact 215 such skaterswho suited up in the NHL that season and never played another game. That’s a lot, obviously, but how out of line was it compared to other seasons?

I chose a study period of 1999-2009, meaning all players in the study have been out of the league for at least three years now and very unlikely to return. I identified three groups of departing players for each of the ten years:

• ▼ the largest group, shown in blue, consists of players who played their last NHL game in a given season;

• ▼ the second (red) only considers players who played a final season of at least 10 GP;

• ▼ the final group (green) who both played at least 10 games in their final season and were at least 30 years old.

The limitations of the season finder didn’t allow me to consider the length of the player’s entire career, just the number of games in his last season, so I used a filter of 10 GP being suggestive of a somewhat meaningful player, with the additional age filter to try to crudely identify veterans at risk. On its own, the modest 10 GP filter reduced the number of departing players after 2003-04 by nearly 100. A lot of these numbers are, simply put, bit players enjoying brief cups of coffee. The “200 players” — which one would-be expert breathlessly calculated “that’s a third of the league!” — is to a substantial degree, a mirage.

Here are the raw numbers (skaters only) for the decade surrounding the lockout. Worth noting that the first season of 1999-2000 saw the number of departures sharply curtailed by the last expansion from 28 to 30 teams. A few extra jobs out there allowing some guys on their last legs to hang around one additional season. After that the number of teams, and available jobs, has remained constant.

Egads, those lockout year numbers do look bad. Let’s have a look graphically, to show that striking peak visually, right across the board in all three categories. To avoid clutter I’ll just plot the numbers in the major category:

There it is, over 200 skaters played their final NHL game in 2003-04, by far the worst year ever for that. Just like Iron Mike and all the others have been saying.

Looking at that disaster, one tiny point from the lower legend niggled away at my inner consciousness. Isn’t something missing?

Yeah, a whole year, that’s what.

Let’s have a second look at that same data, but with a slight adjustment to reflect the reality that was Gary Bettman’s NHL in 2004-05:

In effect, that group that finished up in 2004, whether by choice or otherwise, actually reflected a “double class”. Of course it was larger than usual; it’s two years worth of players!

Let’s take the same data and group it into two-year clusters. An entirely different picture emerges:

Lo and behold, it now seems as though the period 2003-05 saw fewer players leave the NHL than any other such two-year interval! How can this be?

Could it be that rather than lose their edge during the lockout, some veterans actually used the year off to regather their energy and return refreshed for another kick at the can? A high profile example like Teemu Selanne springs to mind immediately, a man who was contemplating retirement in 2004 but took the year to have much-needed surgery and recuperation and came back the following autumn ready for (much) more. One anecdote hardly makes the case, but there would be a small amount of that.

Moreover, the data would surely be corrupted by the absence of those “one-year wonders” who would have made their only NHL appearance in that 2004-05 season. Most years there are about 20-25 such players who only get the one shot, and many of those for just a handful of games. So that would explain some of the dip in the blue line especially.

But wait! There’s more! Looking closer at the second graph, the time around the lockout strongly resembles the phenomenon known as “boom, bust, and echo”. The 2005-06 season after the lockout had a higher attrition rate than any other season besides 2003-04. Some players returned from the lockout only to find they couldn’t hack the New NHL. (Or in the case of the habitual obstructionists, that they couldn’t hack in the New NHL!)

So here’s one final graph, re-grouping the seasons 2000-09 into sensible three-year clusters, with the lockout year smack dab in the middle:

Now all three categories are virtual flat-lines, with the top two showing the slightest dip in the middle to reflect the absence of one-year wonders from 2004-05. Otherwise, there is virtually nothing left to suggest the lockout had any effect on the long-term attrition pattern on players leaving the NHL. The big peak referenced by the Mike Keenans of the world can almost entirely be accounted for by the laws of distribution surrounding the catastrophe of the lost season. Parsed sensibly over the longer term, the attrition rate was pretty much consistent throughout the entire decade.

[Boudrias]

The more the PA digs its heels in about contracting rights, the more I feel like it's over-representing the top tier players. 95% of the players will never be offered front-loaded 'retirement' contracts. The owners could concede many of those contracting demands, and then come up with their own private agreement not to sign anymore Kovalchuk contracts. They've never been without the power to save themselves from themselves.

So tired of all of this. I was very pro-PA two months ago, but now I don't sympathize with either side. It's like watching a divorce where one person gets the mansion, the other person gets the yacht, but neither person is willing to give up the lawnmower.

If nothing hugely positive comes this week, I think the season is lost.

[Scoobydooby]

Apparently one of the mediators, Guy Serota, has already been removed from the process due to inappropriate tweets.

So everyone is guilty of that these days except me it seems.

[gizmo2337]

Mediation isn't going to help. It didn't last NHL lockout, it didn't in NBA or NFL. I fully expect another fail by the end of the week. Problem is, we don't know where each owner stands on each issue.

However, more than one governor pointed out it is almost impossible for the moderates to gain control. While Bettman needs only eight of 30 votes to turn down a proposal for a collective agreement from the NHLPA, it would take 23 to force him to accept one. The governors say the opinions in their ranks are so split neither the hardliners nor the moderates could rally 23 votes.

[johngould21]

Binding arbitration is the only thing that's going to work having these mediators involved. However, both sides, especially the NHL would be dead set against it.

[Heretic]

So much for solidarity:

"It appears Sidney Crosby is moving closer to a decision on whether or not he will play in Europe as the NHL lockout continues. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Crosby admits he has been thinking more about playing elsewhere in recent days as CBA negotiations remain stalled."

[aGENT]

So much for solidarity:

"It appears Sidney Crosby is moving closer to a decision on whether or not he will play in Europe as the NHL lockout continues. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Crosby admits he has been thinking more about playing elsewhere in recent days as CBA negotiations remain stalled."

[D-Money]

So much for solidarity:

"It appears Sidney Crosby is moving closer to a decision on whether or not he will play in Europe as the NHL lockout continues. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Crosby admits he has been thinking more about playing elsewhere in recent days as CBA negotiations remain stalled."

[higgyfan]

I agree with big Bert. Any gains the NHL has made in the sourthern states will be seriously effected. Those teams were struggling enough as it is. Both sides are greedy, but I think the owners are most responsible for the state of the league. They have the final decision on expansion and player contracts. As a result, we now have teams that can't make a profit (while being subsidized by teams that can), overpaid players with ridiculous contracts and an extremely unfair range of ticket prices throughout the league prices. Oh, and all this along with three lockouts in 10 years. I think most fans have a pretty jaded view of the NHL.

[elvis15]

Basketball is so boring, I would rather watch golf.

Maybe if the Grizzlies were still in VAN it would peak my interest.

[poetica]

LEGAL LOOK: MEDIATION FOR UPCOMING NHL/NHLPA TALKS

With the sides far apart on a new deal, the NHL and NHLPA have announced they're taking their talents to mediation.

The sides have agreed to a request by the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) to engage in mediation that will involve the participation of federal mediators. The Director of the FMCS George Cohen has assigned Deputy Director Scot Beckenbaugh and Director of Mediation Services John Sweeney to serve as the mediators.

So will mediation result in a deal? Is there cause for optimism?

What Is Mediation?

First what it's not. Mediation is not arbitration. Apart from being a partner at a law firm, I'm also an arbitrator. As an arbitrator, I listen to both sides, review the evidence and then render a decision that binds the parties. If they don't like my decision, they appeal it. If they don't like me, they tell me but there is no appeal.

Think NHL salary arbitration. Last year, an arbitrator ruled that Shea Weber was going to be paid $7.5 million. This was a ruling and not merely a suggestion.

Mediation is another form of dispute resolution. The key difference is that a mediator doesn't issue a ruling or a binding decision. Rather, the role of the mediator is to try and facilitate settlement. It's less Judge Judy and more Dr. Phil.

Litigation can be expensive and it can take years to resolve disputes through the courts. Through mediation, though, settlement can be achieved quickly and economically. For that reason, mediation in certain cases, like commercial disputes, has some appeal (yes, that pun was intended).

Mediation is an art, and very good mediators can achieve results, particularly in potentially volatile cases. As a neutral facilitator, a mediator will engage the parties in a dialogue, suggest mutually beneficial avenues of settlement and get the parties to think about solutions to their differences.

There is also a gag order in place during mediation so don't expect to hear anything regarding progress (or lack thereof).

In order for mediation to have a chance, both sides must respect and trust the mediator. This is key. If there is no respect or trust, settlement is unlikely to be achieved.

Who Is George Cohen?

In 2009, President Obama appointed Cohen as the head of the FMCS. Cohen has been described as a superstar of the profession. He is a great listener, reflective, fair and an unbiased mediator. He has done a lot of mediation and is well-respected by both management and players.

He also understands the politics of sports. Before getting into mediation, he was a lawyer for the unions in baseball, basketball and hockey. He has also mediated disputes between Major League Soccer and the Major League Soccer Players Union, the NFL and NFLPA and the NBA and NBPA.

Overall, Cohen is highly credible.

While he has appointed two other people to handle the NHL mediation, you can bet he will be following it very closely.

Will Mediation Get A Deal?

This isn't going to be easy. If the past is any indication, mediation may not result in a new deal.

While Cohen and company are very good at what they do, they have a tough assignment. Historically, these can be very difficult cases to successfully mediate. In 2011, the NFL and NBA were locked out and both turned to Cohen. However, despite his great skill, he was unable to bridge the gap between the two sides.

A deep divide remains between the NHL and NHLPA. The sides are led by very bright people who are intimately familiar with the issues and who are seemingly convinced of their positions. The divide is so significant that we are hearing that the NHLPA is considering the very dramatic move of decertification (click here for a Primer on Decertification). Talk of decertification really underscores how far apart the sides are, and by extension, the challenges faced by the mediators.

So this case may not have the ideal profile for a successful mediation. Indeed, Cohen and company are skilled, but not miracle workers.

However, while Cohen may not bring an immediate resolution to the dispute, he may position the parties for settlement after mediation is done. So there may be a benefit to mediation.

Ultimately, we have learned that what drives settlement in sports is not mediation, but rather the risk of losing an entire season, or a substantial part of it.

Eric Macramalla is TSN's Legal Analyst. He can be seen on TSN's That's Hockey and heard each week on TSN Radio 1050. You can follow him on Twitter @EricOnSportslaw.

[Raoul Duke]

How do so many of you have so much time or care so much to write out these novels of posts?

And I really hate that mentality, "NBA is boring, MLB sucks, etc", as if being Canadain you can only like hockey. I've actually really enjoyed the NBA season so far, plus there's the gratest league on Earth, the NFL, and a number of MMA orgs (UFC, Bellator, etc).

[poetica]

Canucks player rep Cory Schneider says union decertification a last resort

VANCOUVER - As the NHL and its locked-out players agreed Monday to mediation, Vancouver Canuck netminder Cory Schneider admitted that union decertification remains a last resort.

Decertification would enable players to file antitrust lawsuits, a tactical manoeuvre that helped both NBA and NFL players when they were locked out last year.

“The appetite for decertification is much stronger than it was before,” Schneider said following a skate at UBC. “Through this whole process, we've viewed that as a last means. We didn't want it to come to that so we've always pushed to negotiate, negotiate.

“We've moved $800 million in their direction depending on whose math you view and, for them to just look at us and smile and say 'we appreciate it', it tells us they either don't take us very seriously or they don't really have any motivation to negotiate and do a little give-and-take and make this deal happen.”

According to Schneider, decertification is not something to be taken lightly.

“As players, one of the only options we have to really apply a little pressure on them and show them that we're serious is to decertify,” continued Schneider, a member of the NHLPA bargaining committee. “We've seen that the only way the other leagues got a deal done was that the unions decertified or started the process. It's a very serious decision and something we would have to consider very closely. That's why we're a little reluctant to just charge ahead with it.

“It's a drastic measure but when you're dealing with this group of owners and a commissioner who have shown time and time again that they're willing to lock you out until they get exactly what they want, there is not much choice either.”

Some reports indicate it would take two months for the decertification process to be completed and, by then, the entire 2012-13 season could be lost. It all depends on how much stomach both sides have to allow it to reach that point. The owners have already shown they will cancel an entire season (2004-05) to further their aims.

Schneider said players aren't prepared to swallow hard and accept the owners' last proposal just to get the game back on the ice, although he conceded he is getting very anxious to play again “whether here or abroad.” He is personally forfeiting paycheques from the new $4 million deal per season he signed last June.

“Yeah, we can say we saved the game and took the raw deal to do it and seven years from now, we have to do it again?” Schneider responded. “And five years after that, do it again? And again and again? Obviously if you just keep giving them what they want without them giving anything back, they're just going to keep doing it. It's a bit of a conundrum to us, honestly. We feel that we can get this done pretty quickly if they would simply move a few inches and they just steadfastly refuse to do so.”

Schneider reiterated a long-held union belief that the owners have a certain date in my mind at which point they'll start to negotiate in earnest. However, with more than two months of games already cancelled, along with the Winter Classic and all-star game, that date may be next year.

He said he was extremely frustrated that last week's union proposal was quickly shot down by the league.

“I mean, in the moment, it's almost maddening,” he explained. “Then you step back if you're going to understand why they did it – beg for us to make a proposal and then to come back and say nothing is changed on our end, well, what was the point? The point was they just got a little more from us and they didn't have to give anything up. I feel, and the group feels, they're going to continue to do so until whatever date it is they have in mind they've got what they needed, or they've squeezed enough out of us.”

Defenceman Dan Hamhuis wondered aloud Monday whether the owners truly care about the game.

“They say they care about the game and the fans and stuff but their actions are speaking a lot louder than their words right now,” he said. “For people who follow it closely, you'll see one side is negotiating and the other side is not.”

Fellow defenceman Kevin Bieksa figures “a lot” of owners do care but their voices haven't been heard due to the fact they've been muzzled by commissioner Gary Bettman under the threat of heavy fines.

“Unfortunately I don't think every single owner has been given a fair shake in this deal,” Bieksa said. “I think Gary has his small group and I think there are a lot of owners left in the dark.”

[Heretic]

I don't think you get what solidarity means.

[UFCanuck]

2-3 more weeks to get a deal done if they're going to start on Jan 1. Doesn't seem likely at all, looks like desertification is going to go down and so is the season.

[Mauii]

If mediation doesn't resolve this, I say decertify. The season would be lost anyways. Put an end to this lock out business, and take the control out of Bettman's hands. It seems more and more the NHL is being repressed and held hostage by Bettman and his possies. Get the best contracts negotiator and may the best teams/players win. Maybe we can finally clean house and let this be the survival of the fittest. The owners will have more autonomy in how they run their business/players/contracts as will the players.

[The Bookie]

How do so many of you have so much time or care so much to write out these novels of posts?

And I really hate that mentality, "NBA is boring, MLB sucks, etc", as if being Canadain you can only like hockey. I've actually really enjoyed the NBA season so far, plus there's the gratest league on Earth, the NFL, and a number of MMA orgs (UFC, Bellator, etc).