Yes, we are all guilty of conjecture trying to determine the real facts surrounding this lockout. What ya do with no hockey?
Well, that's certainly true. Definitely not as fun though.
Another scenario is that things are as bad as they say and their business plan is actually collapsing. Not only are the 'southern' teams in trouble but core teams such as NJD, NYI and Detroit as well. How could anyone have a particularly optimistic viewpoint considering economic conditions in the USA. Seriously, Detroit city is bankrupt. Perhaps the business plan is under pressure from a cost perspective in a desire to be an alternative media market to major league sports. How much of the NHL's cost structure is predicated on acquiring a major USA media contract? Does the NBC $2 billion over 10 years do the job? EVen if all that money went to the bottom line it amounts to less than $7 mil per team per year. What will be the value of a $ in year 10? At 2.5% inflation it would be 0.75 cent dollars.
I really do understand that you're trying to understand why it seems the owners are so willing to shoot themselves in the foot, but I just don't see any proof for it. If things are that bad, there would be proof. But, all of the available proof actually proves that wrong. The economy didn't turn bad AFTER the last revenue numbers were released. It's been bad for years and despite that the NHL has admitted to record revenue highs set anew in each of the last 5 seasons through 2011. (Source: the NHL themselves http://www.nhl.com/i...s.htm?id=559630
) Again, if 2011/12 season's numbers show that trend stopping or reversing, why aren't they sharing the numbers? Probably because, as that story notes, "NHL Enterprises revenue is forecasted to increase by 14.8 percent over last year.
" (That would also explain whey they are trying to use the 2010/11 numbers for the basis of their proposal despite having the 2011/12 numbers.)
Read on in that story and you'll see that major revenue streams have enjoyed significant increases, including a 33% increase in sponsorship over the previous year and overall merchandising sales increase of 15%. Add to that that in 2010/11 "NHL teams averaged 17,132 fans and played to 93.2 percent of capacity. This average is the third largest all-time and an increase over last year," and that would seem to indicate ticket revenue is increasing significantly as well. So, it would seem that when they're not in the midst of CBA negotiations the NHL has no problem bragging about how well they are doing despite the economy, but suddenly now they're crying poverty, saying they're all losing money, and won't share the revenue numbers from the previous season to backup their claims (most likely because their own predictions put it at one of the biggest yearly gains ever).
On top of that, team valuations have climbed easily above the rate of inflation. (Source: http://www.davemanue...05-lockout-135/
) And that's not just the average as almost all individual teams saw their valuation increase since the last lockout.
Bottom line is the owners are playing chicken, hoping the players will cave yet again and give them everything they want. It's a business tactic and not even a smart one, as what they would lose will still never be made up over the course of the CBA if they lose an entire season. Players, on the other hand, have much more to lose than just money.
Edited by poetica, 31 October 2012 - 11:04 AM.