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Canada For The Win - Economically


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#1 Wetcoaster

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:34 PM

Since the global recession hit, Canada weathered the storm better than other industrialized nations. Canada had the strongest economic growth over the recession and recovery among Group of Seven (G-7) countries. Real GDP is now well above pre-recession levels — the best performance in the G-7.
http://www.budget.gc.../chap2-eng.html

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We were not hit as hard and we recovered faster. That was the message that the Conservatives hammered home in fashioning their first majority government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper during the last election. Stay the economic course based on past performance was the winning message to the voters.

And it seems that lead will continue over the long term.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts Canada will lead the Group of Seven industrialized economies in growth over the next half century.

In a report released Friday, the OECD says it expects Canada's real gross domestic product will average 2.2 per cent growth annually over the next 50 years.

Canada, it predicts, will be near the top on a per-capita basis – possibly a truer measure of success — with only Japan sneaking ahead.

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...ada-growth.html

However there are potential pitfalls ahead in the short term.

Although Canada has a massive trading relationship with US - we are both each others biggest trading partners - the Conservatives have set out to diversify our markets recognizing that the US and Europe have some serious structural problems ahead.

China as a bigger trading partner has been part of the Harper agenda for several years and now he has set his sights on the burgeoning economy of India having just completed a multi-day trade mission to that country.


Prime Minister Stephen Harper said today from India's bustling hi-tech centre of Bangalore that, re-election or not, U.S. President Barack Obama still faces an economy that will continue to grow slowly, meaning Canada must look to new markets.

"The reality is the United States, while it will remain our largest economic partner for the foreseeable future, it will likely continue to be a slow-growing economy," said Harper, who is on a trade mission in India. "[For Canada] to realize its full economic potential, it will have to diversify to countries like India that are growing and expected to grow much more rapidly."

"We can as a country continue to look at all these worrying developments around the world and fret," Harper said. "We're going to have a lot of these kinds of problems with us for a while."

"We have got to focus on the mid-term, and keep making the decisions and changes necessary in our own country so that we realize the opportunities to create jobs and growth regardless of what may happen in the U.S., Europe and other economies that have longer-term problems," the prime minister said.

Referring to the looming fiscal crisis in the U.S. – the so-called fiscal cliff – Harper added that "the world would be immensely helped if the U.S. could deal with this immediate issue and if the Europeans could accelerate progress on their debt issues."

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...e-thursday.html
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#2 TheAntar

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:44 PM

Certainly Mario Levebvre with the conf board of Canada agrees. Just heard a keynote from him in Saskatoon this week. Canada has such a strong potential for commodity exports and manufacturing, he argue there's no reason the economy would falter in Canada unless a series of mistakes are made.
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#3 ronthecivil

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:45 PM

Harper can wish the fiscal cliff away but even if it's true it will only be replaced with something worse down the line. And Europe isn't remotely close to fixing their debt problems. No amount of Greek austerity will fix things anymore they NEED to default and when that happens the **** will hit the fan for real. All these things are going to put a hit on Canada whether we want it or not.

Similar things await when Ontario deals with it's own financial mess. Sure, that's provincial, but if things slow down even more in our largest and most economically significant province the feds will feel it. Big time.

Oh, and each individual Canadian is at record levels of debt compared to their incomes. Many, many people are barely making their monthly payments. At record low interest rates.

Heck, the conservatives themselves recently noted that their plan to return to surpluses might (read will for sure) be delayed.

Oh, and even if it does turn up roses our housing market could easily be looked at as a housing bubble and if it pops we will be go through the same sort of recessions every other country were comparing ourselves went through after they ran up their house prices.

Way, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to be patting oneself on the back. In fact it would be wise to get the books in order sooner rather than later or run the risk of falling into the same situations the US and Europe find themselves in.
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#4 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:45 PM

I have got the feeling that like australia , canada has weathered the GFC better than most, due to the wealth derived from its natural resources .

Edited by The Ratiocinator, 09 November 2012 - 04:46 PM.

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#5 ronthecivil

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:48 PM

Certainly Mario Levebvre with the conf board of Canada agrees. Just heard a keynote from him in Saskatoon this week. Canada has such a strong potential for commodity exports and manufacturing, he argue there's no reason the economy would falter in Canada unless a series of mistakes are made.


Commodities are certainly a saving grace but China is slowing so the rate of growth of exports may not be enough to counter the other pressures. Especially with opposition to every energy project (our main commodity) mounting.....
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#6 Hobble

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:49 PM

Too bad increasing trade with China means making it easier for them to rape our lands with fewer environmental regulations, all to sell our resources right back to us.
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#7 Drybone

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:50 PM

I dunno. All of my contacts back home tell me that things are not booming but are ok. I dont get any vibe at all that Canada is going into recession ........unless the US goes off the cliff which they wont.
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#8 Buddhas Hand

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:55 PM

Commodities are certainly a saving grace but China is slowing so the rate of growth of exports may not be enough to counter the other pressures. Especially with opposition to every energy project (our main commodity) mounting.....


China's economy picks up before leadership change

AFPUpdated November 10, 2012, 6:07 am




BEIJING (AFP) - China released a slew of figures Friday showing growth of the world's number-two economy gaining pace, as the Communist Party meets to anoint new leaders tasked with sustaining the country's economic miracle.
The statistics bureau said output at the millions of factories, workshops and mines rose 9.6 percent year on year in October, from 9.2 percent in September, indicating the country is emerging from a slumber that has also dragged on the global economy.
The numbers will no doubt be welcomed by the party as it stages its week-long congress, where President Hu Jintao said China needed to reform its economy to ensure it is "driven more by domestic demand".
Other figures released Friday by the bureau -- including retail sales, fixed asset investment, and inflation -- also showed an improvement.
The data add to signs that China's economy is rebounding after growth slowed for seven straight quarters, hitting 7.4 percent in the three months through September, its weakest performance in more than three years.
In a speech Thursday to open the pivotal Communist Party Congress Hu called for economic reform to boost domestic consumption in a bid to create a new growth model, echoing mounting calls for change to stabilise growth amid the slowdown.
At the event, held every five years to trumpet China's political and economic leadership credentials, Hu offered a mixed message, also insisting on the primacy of the party-led state sector, which has traditionally been and continues to be a major player in the country's economy despite decades of increasing openness.
"What a lovely dataset to welcome in China's new set of leaders," IHS Global Insight economists Ren Xianfang and Alistair Thornton wrote in a research note Friday after the data release.
"The stabilisation looks to be on firmer ground."
Retail sales, the main measure of consumer spending, rose 14.5 percent year on year in October, from 14.2 percent in September, while fixed-asset investment, a key gauge of infrastructure spending, rose 20.7 percent in the first 10 months of 2012, from 20.5 percent in January-September.
China's consumer price index, the main measure of inflation, slipped to a near three-year-low 1.7 percent in October, the sixth month out of the past seven it has slowed, giving lawmakers a little more room to loosen monetary policy.
Ren and Thornton partially attributed the recent encouraging performance to aggressive central bank monetary support via net liquidity injections to bolster the economy ahead of the country's once-in-a-decade leadership transition, which began Thursday.
"The government could not risk a downside shock this month, and it appears their strategy to bolster growth has gained traction over the past couple of months," said Ren and Thornton.
While the October figures will give Beijing room to loosen monetary policy they have actually reduced the urgency for such a move, with analysts saying they will likely provide impetus to stimulate consumer spending.
"The data provided fresh evidence of an economic recovery, so the government will likely continue with its current fiscal and monetary policies and there's no need to step up efforts," Liao Qun, a Hong Kong-based economist at Citic Bank International, told AFP.
Authorities have taken steps to boost growth by cutting interest rates twice in less than a month earlier this year while they have also reduced the amount of funds banks must keep in reserve three times since December to encourage lending.
Liao said that it was unlikely authorities would make further such cuts but would use other tools to support the economy.
"The government will continue to implement its investment plan for infrastructure projects and maintain its subsidy programme to boost consumption," he said


Was reading this earlier today .
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Aldous Huxley.


#9 Hyzer

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:58 PM

Too bad increasing trade with China means making it easier for them to rape our lands with fewer environmental regulations, all to sell our resources right back to us.


^ This. This right here. I don't think many Canadians understand how bad our environment is being raped in order to sustain these numbers. The conservatives stopped protecting rivers and fisheries, they cut forestry workers (rangers and park staff, stuff like that) and sell oil companies to China so they can destroy northern Alberta and pump crude oil through BC via the pipeline (which, btw, is being made by a company which has a TERRIBLE track record of oil spills from their pipes. I mean BAD. Like 720 spills over 10 years.)
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#10 ronthecivil

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 04:58 PM

^ That's good but if Europe and the US implode financially (actually that should be when not if especially given the lack of road left to kick the can down in some locations) then China will loose a big chunk of it's trinket market.

China will still be a customer but perhaps not at the same level as now.
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#11 ronthecivil

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 05:00 PM

^ This. This right here. I don't think many Canadians understand how bad our environment is being raped in order to sustain these numbers. The conservatives stopped protecting rivers and fisheries, they cut forestry workers (rangers and park staff, stuff like that) and sell oil companies to China so they can destroy northern Alberta and pump crude oil through BC via the pipeline (which, btw, is being made by a company which has a TERRIBLE track record of oil spills from their pipes. I mean BAD. Like 720 spills over 10 years.)


Nobody will care once the economic Tsunami hits Canada.
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#12 Primus099

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 06:01 PM

I'm sure many posters are working hard to figure out a way to blame Harper in all of this. Don't worry, they'll come up with something soon.

Decade of conservative gov, highest growth rate, lowest unemployment rate, strong dollar, most educated......but somehow conservatives are doing a bad job. After all, look how great Obama is, more added debt than anyone in history by a long shot, and finally reached that goal of having a worse employment rate than Canada!

We've have the lowest corporate tax rate in the developed world, we are the #1 country to invest in according to Forbes last year. The US has instituted massive unprecedented spending and welfare expansions, we are now more conservative than they are. We are rising, they are sinking. Is it possible some people might actually pay attention and learn something from this?
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#13 Wetcoaster

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 06:12 PM

I'm sure many posters are working hard to figure out a way to blame Harper in all of this. Don't worry, they'll come up with something soon.

Decade of conservative gov, highest growth rate, lowest unemployment rate, strong dollar, most educated......but somehow conservatives are doing a bad job. After all, look how great Obama is, more added debt than anyone in history by a long shot, and finally reached that goal of having a worse employment rate than Canada!

We've have the lowest corporate tax rate in the developed world, we are the #1 country to invest in according to Forbes last year. The US has instituted massive unprecedented spending and welfare expansions, we are now more conservative than they are. We are rising, they are sinking. Is it possible some people might actually pay attention and learn something from this?

Perhaps first we need to clue in Tommy Mulcair and the NDP.
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#14 ronthecivil

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 07:04 PM

I'm sure many posters are working hard to figure out a way to blame Harper in all of this. Don't worry, they'll come up with something soon.

Decade of conservative gov, highest growth rate, lowest unemployment rate, strong dollar, most educated......but somehow conservatives are doing a bad job. After all, look how great Obama is, more added debt than anyone in history by a long shot, and finally reached that goal of having a worse employment rate than Canada!

We've have the lowest corporate tax rate in the developed world, we are the #1 country to invest in according to Forbes last year. The US has instituted massive unprecedented spending and welfare expansions, we are now more conservative than they are. We are rising, they are sinking. Is it possible some people might actually pay attention and learn something from this?


The stimulus made possible by short term deficits that went into things like infrastructure were good.

The lowering (and then eventual but too late restoring) of house lending standards bumped up the housing bubble after the 2008 slump. Doing some stuff to make it a soft landing would have been ok but they overdid it and pushed things too far.

The low interest rates that are helping fuel the debt binge are not something we can really deal with unless we want to shoot way above par vis a vis the americans.

The conservatives need to consider the amount being wasted on the airplanes. The naval project costs a lot too but it at least creates Canadian jobs.
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#15 TheAntar

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 07:52 PM

The debt to income ratio isn't concerning. It's a poor indicator of things.

In terms of affordability, People's payments on those debts aka mortgages (make up a huge %) are actually costing less of people's income percentage than they did at any other time in the past 20 years. Plus those debt numbers are driven primarily by a rise in the value of a house... But with modern interest those houses are just as ...more actually... affordable.
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#16 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 10:57 AM

Rest of G7: No oil sands.

Canada: Oil sands.

Oil sands for the win!
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#17 لني

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 11:13 AM

Canada and Australia have both enjoyed economic "success" in the past few years do to the economic boost from a red hot housing market due to extermely low interest rates.
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It is not my intent to get in circular arguments with anybody. The reason i have avoided saying anything specific is because i know you or someone else will attempt to find an alternate explanation to my points which i intern will have to defend. I see no point in getting involved with the circular argument that is already well under way in this thread. I simply intended to voice my opinion on the subject. In the end either you accept the possibility of corruption and conspiracy or you don't.

Also i find your comments to be very childish. Does taking what i say out of context, paraphrasing and misquoting it make you feel good about yourself? Grow up.


Logic at its finest.

#18 Offensive Threat

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 10:37 PM

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development that the OP is quoting was nice enough to give us a 50 year outlook. Wonder what that 50 year outlook was in 2006-7 before the crash. It didnt take very long to render that outlook completely off. I dont put much stock in their long term projections.
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#19 theminister

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Posted 11 November 2012 - 02:55 AM

I thank the Bank of Canada Act, personally.
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#20 لني

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Posted 11 November 2012 - 03:41 AM

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development that the OP is quoting was nice enough to give us a 50 year outlook. Wonder what that 50 year outlook was in 2006-7 before the crash. It didnt take very long to render that outlook completely off. I dont put much stock in their long term projections.


Exactly.

Before the housing crisis in the US everything was the standard "housing prices always go up."

Yet looking at long term studies (Amsterdam Heerengeschect(?) which looks at 300 years of data and Case Schiller which is about 100 years) one can see that type of growth was unsustainable or would in the long term defy the "rule".

Somehow Canada has scraped through a disaster relatively unscathed, which effected pretty much every other country. Doesnt add up especially when you look at the stats regarding housing market growth and interest rates and personal debt levels.

Im pretty sure Harper is eager to get the resources based growth going to offset reduction in growth from the housing market.

If it works it may be great. If not then a whole heap of trouble.
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Sent from my iPhone Canucks App

It is not my intent to get in circular arguments with anybody. The reason i have avoided saying anything specific is because i know you or someone else will attempt to find an alternate explanation to my points which i intern will have to defend. I see no point in getting involved with the circular argument that is already well under way in this thread. I simply intended to voice my opinion on the subject. In the end either you accept the possibility of corruption and conspiracy or you don't.

Also i find your comments to be very childish. Does taking what i say out of context, paraphrasing and misquoting it make you feel good about yourself? Grow up.


Logic at its finest.

#21 Mr. Ambien

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Posted 11 November 2012 - 07:41 AM

No surprise provinces like ours (Ontario) are also going into debt rather quickly so I don't necessarily look at that graph and think "how wonderful". Going into debt like this to artificially keep productivity high is stupid. Canada needs to avoid becoming such a high consumption country like the US, it's not something we can sustain.

Exactly.

Before the housing crisis in the US everything was the standard "housing prices always go up."

Yet looking at long term studies (Amsterdam Heerengeschect(?) which looks at 300 years of data and Case Schiller which is about 100 years) one can see that type of growth was unsustainable or would in the long term defy the "rule".

Somehow Canada has scraped through a disaster relatively unscathed, which effected pretty much every other country. Doesnt add up especially when you look at the stats regarding housing market growth and interest rates and personal debt levels.

Im pretty sure Harper is eager to get the resources based growth going to offset reduction in growth from the housing market.

If it works it may be great. If not then a whole heap of trouble.

Deregulation that started during the Clinton presidency and further ballooned during Bush's terms allowed the housing crisis to form as it allowed the bubble to blow up. Government telling the housing industry it would be it's safety net and back so many stupid loans didn't help either, it abetted all of those involved in the profit-mongering to be reckless thanks to government being willing to bail them out.

Houses in the Greater Toronto Area here are blowing up just the same as I saw in California. Despite hearing on the radio, and seeing on TV, that it's limited and we won't get a bubble like the US, I beg to differ. To make things worse, Ontario is horrendous at infrastructure (highway system), the highways in the area (401, 403, 400, 404, 427, 410, QEW/Gardiner) are poorly built and there's no means to build the infrastructure to support such an influx of population that is to be expected with the gross expansion of housing you can visibly see driving the outer regions of the GTA.

It's simply going to be a huge mess and it's going to be self-inflicted with all the warning signs ignored just like in the US for people and their GDP fetish without concern of what the cost is to sustain that production growth.

Edited by zaibatsu, 11 November 2012 - 07:51 AM.

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