Jump to content

Welcome to canucks.com Vancouver Canucks homepage

Photo

How long before Facebook becomes a virtual Graveyard rather than a social site?


  • Please log in to reply
18 replies to this topic

#1 Harbinger

Harbinger

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,198 posts
  • Joined: 12-October 05

Posted 17 November 2012 - 10:06 PM

Deadbook, the Long-term Facebook

Aug 26th, 2012
There are approximately 7 billion people in the world. The average life expectancy is somewhere around 67.5 years, a bit higher in the developed world, lower in other parts (with Angola a shocking low at 40 years!).
So in the next 67.5 years a very large fraction of 7 billion people and possibly even more will die (more than half of those alive today + half of those that have not yet been born), and not that long afterwards the rest, with a few outliers to get older than 100 or so. 67.5 years * 365 days is about 25,000 days. That’s about 280,000 deaths per day average. Right now that number is lower at about 155,000, but as the population ages that will catch up with us (because then there will be more older people than young people). None of this assumes the world population is going to grow further, which it most likely will.
Facebook now has appromiximately one billion users. Most of those are in the developed world so the average lifespan will be a bit higher, perhaps as high as 75 years. One billion users living 75 years long still works out to 36500 people or thereabouts dying every day.
In the beginning, when facebook opened, obviously everybody that was a member was still alive, a place full of vibrancy and colour. But at the rate they were growing it probably didn’t take very long before the first facebook member died. Given the fact that facebook initially was aimed at college students I figure that chances are that wasn’t a peaceful death of old age. More likely an accident or some terrible disease.
As time passes the frequency with which people on facebook are dying will go up. The reason for that is that the average age of ‘facebookers’ that joined in the past will creep up, one day at the time, and that older people are joining facebook as well in ever larger numbers.
Sooner or later facebook will reach a stage of equilibrium, just like the world population, where the number of people dying will balance (and will possibly even exceed for a while) the number of people joining.
And in the very long term there will actually be more dead people on facebook then there are people living on facebook. I’d estimate that crossover to be around 50 years into the future, possibly a bit later. (How I get to the 50 years: if the life expectancy is 67.5 years that means that after 67.5 years half the people alive today will be dead, + a good fraction of those that haven’t even been born yet. At 1 billion people in there today that would mean 500 million of them would have to have died + half of those not yet born today. Let’s ignore those not yet born today for simplicity’s sake, that leaves 37 years based on the rate of 36500 per day. Adding back in some effect for people not yet born who will be typically younger and therefore healthier so less likely to die that number will shift into the future a bit, but not tremendously so, say another 10 to 15 years added to it (because even if they’re younger and healthier, some of them will die too).
That steady state will be a cross between a place to meet the living and one to remember those that came before, and in the very long term the living will only be a very small fraction of the people on facebook that are dead!
I wonder at which point the atmosphere on facebook will change, from photo sharing website to digital graveyard, a place where we come to worship our ancestors.
To combat some of these ‘chilling effects’ (to put it mildly) Facebook has a procedure they call memoralization, this will limit the access to facebook pages to ‘confirmed friends’. Eventually those will pass away too and the moment when facebook’s last friend-of-a-friend passes away would be the moment the profile has finally lost value for facebook.
So presumably, that’s the moment they’ll finally remove your browsing history, and that silly photo of you passed out drunk after the party ;)
But that’s assuming that people actually report you to be dead. Another way to combat this is to set a practical limit to the age that facebookers can have, say 150 years. That way even if all your ‘friends’ forget to report that you kicked the bucket you will still be cleaned up by the digital grim reaper.
  • 0

Posted Image


#2 Grape

Grape

    Canucks Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,349 posts
  • Joined: 29-December 11

Posted 17 November 2012 - 10:10 PM

Very good read. Thanks
  • 0

mj761l.jpg0007.gif0007.gif0007.gif0007.gif  

Signature Credit to Vintage Canuck!

 

Don't Click!


#3 nucklehead

nucklehead

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,353 posts
  • Joined: 23-March 03

Posted 17 November 2012 - 10:20 PM

I have one dead cousin of FB. Somehow he still makes the odd post.
  • 0
biggerabacus_zps5cae10b6.jpg

#4 Harbinger

Harbinger

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,198 posts
  • Joined: 12-October 05

Posted 17 November 2012 - 10:24 PM

Yeah I have a few dead people on my account. probably about 5 people so far
  • 0

Posted Image


#5 Ryan Kesler RK17

Ryan Kesler RK17

    K-Wing Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 86 posts
  • Joined: 08-May 12

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:02 PM

The hell did I just read?
  • 0
Posted ImagePosted Image
Thnx to Vintage Canuck. for my awesome sig

#6 Wilfred

Wilfred

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,496 posts
  • Joined: 10-February 11

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:07 PM

lol :picard:
  • 0

#7 Nevlach

Nevlach

    Canucks Franchise Player

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,020 posts
  • Joined: 04-April 05

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:10 PM

I have one dead cousin of FB. Somehow he still makes the odd post.

Are they things like "Hey who knew they had Wifi up here?"
  • 3
Posted Image
Posted Image

#8 Aleksandr Pistoletov

Aleksandr Pistoletov

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,137 posts
  • Joined: 07-April 03

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:14 PM

Given how many posts I have here I guess I really can't point out the waste of time that unsourced blog was.
  • 0

"When Jonah's agent called him and said Quentin Tarantino wanted to put him in a spaghetti western [Django Unchained], Jonah was like, 'You had me at spaghetti.'"

 

"Aziz has been charming audiences and snakes for years. And I guess you’re here tonight because now that Kanye had a real baby he doesn’t need you anymore."

 

 -- Jeff Ross

 

 


#9 MoneypuckOverlord

MoneypuckOverlord

    Canucks First-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,360 posts
  • Joined: 24-September 09

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:25 PM

it will die when people stop using the internet.
  • 0

Players Nikolaj Ehlers have been compared too by the fan base of the Vancouver Canucks.

 

1 Pavel Bure

2 Markus Naslund

3 Nathan Mackkinon

4 Jonathan Drouin.

5 Jonathan Tavares

 

http://bleacherrepor...d-top-prospects

combine results.  Ehlers 5'11 162 lbs of solid rock.  


#10 Clark Kent

Clark Kent

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,598 posts
  • Joined: 21-September 06

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:31 PM

Are they things like "Hey who knew they had Wifi up here?"


Yes, lets make jokes about dead cousins. :rolleyes:
  • 0
Posted Image

#11 Harbinger

Harbinger

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,198 posts
  • Joined: 12-October 05

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:42 PM

it will die when people stop using the internet.



This isn't about Facebook Dying. It's about how long before there are more dead peoples profiles on it than living peoples.
  • 0

Posted Image


#12 Pineapples

Pineapples

    Canucks First-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,692 posts
  • Joined: 15-June 10

Posted 17 November 2012 - 11:55 PM

That's when someone will create the next big thing for people to waste their time on.

This shouldn't be something that someone should be concerned about anyway.
  • 0

Pineapple_jumps.gifPineapple_jumps.gif

 


#13 The Bookie

The Bookie

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,750 posts
  • Joined: 10-May 10

Posted 18 November 2012 - 12:48 AM

huh. I would have assumed they would have a form of automated housecleaning built in. Like if an account is dormant and doesn't get logged into over a few years, some reminder emails are sent, and then the account is deleted.
  • 0

#14 Harbinger

Harbinger

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,198 posts
  • Joined: 12-October 05

Posted 18 November 2012 - 12:50 AM

huh. I would have assumed they would have a form of automated housecleaning built in. Like if an account is dormant and doesn't get logged into over a few years, some reminder emails are sent, and then the account is deleted.


I have people who have been dead for years on mine. The only dead person that I have that isn't there anymore had their account deactivated by their spouse.
  • 0

Posted Image


#15 Mountain Man

Mountain Man

    Comets Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 386 posts
  • Joined: 18-January 12

Posted 18 November 2012 - 01:50 AM

it will become an annex of ansestery.com and you will have to pay to creep it.
  • 0
virtus junxit mors non separabit.

Hockey season must be back on, the crazies are coming out again....


#16 250Integra

250Integra

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,082 posts
  • Joined: 07-March 06

Posted 18 November 2012 - 02:50 AM

Who cares.


We're all gonna die next month anyways
  • 0
Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image
Thanks for the Memories Canada!!!
Thanks for everything Naslund!
Original creator of the WWE and the Rate my sig / Showoff thread

#17 nucklehead

nucklehead

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,353 posts
  • Joined: 23-March 03

Posted 18 November 2012 - 04:38 AM

^ Right, I'd forgotten about that. So, there's your answer, one more month.
  • 0
biggerabacus_zps5cae10b6.jpg

#18 hudson bay rules

hudson bay rules

    Canucks Second-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,386 posts
  • Joined: 03-November 10

Posted 18 November 2012 - 12:43 PM

Facebook is dead to me. I just wish I was dead to facebook.
  • 0
I love rock and roll, just put another dime in the juice box baby.

#19 Coda

Coda

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,163 posts
  • Joined: 11-December 03

Posted 18 November 2012 - 10:01 PM

I doubt very much Facebook is still a leading edge website in 67 years, I would give it 10 more years at best before it wilts away before some other innovation or fad.
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Canucks.com is the official Web site of The Vancouver Canucks. The Vancouver Canucks and Canucks.com are trademarks of The Vancouver Canucks Limited Partnership.  NHL and the word mark and image of the Stanley Cup are registered trademarks and the NHL Shield and NHL Conference logos are trademarks of the National Hockey League. All NHL logos and marks and NHL team logos and marks as well as all other proprietary materials depicted herein are the property of the NHL and the respective NHL teams and may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of NHL Enterprises, L.P.  Copyright © 2009 The Vancouver Canucks Limited Partnership and the National Hockey League.  All Rights Reserved.