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Putting a price tag on war with Iran

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Putting a price tag on war with Iran

(CNN) -- An all-out U.S. war with Iran, including an invasion by American troops, would cost the global economy close to $2 trillion in the first three months and could go as high as $3 trillion, according to a Washington think tank.

A full-scale ground operation to dismantle Iran's nuclear program is unlikely but the scenario is just one of a handful that a group of nine experts, assembled by the Federation of American Scientists, examined to explore how the global economy would be impacted by U.S. action against Iran.

"There had been talks about oil spikes, about what would happen with the Iranian nuclear program, damage to Iran itself but there had been no, at least in the open sources, large-scale looks at what was going to happen globally," said Charles Blair who co-authored the report.

Here is the group's breakdown on various scenarios:

Note that all costs are median estimates for the first three months of any action. Costs projected longer than that involved too many variables, according to the group, and would be inaccurate to report.

More sanctions

The U.S. increases the financial pressure on Iran by imposing a new round of sanctions that penalizes any foreign bank that does business with any Iranian bank. Current sanctions only apply to large transactions related to Iran's energy sector. The sanctions would "seek to cleave Iran's entire energy sector from the world economy," according to the report. The new round of sanctions would also limit international lending, depleting Iran's foreign currency reserves.

Estimated Global Cost: $64 billion

Blockade

Even though Iran's economy is severely hurt by sanctions, a diplomatic agreement is not on the horizon. The United States aims to "cut off" Iran by blocking all of its oil, natural gas, energy equipment and services. A substantial amount of U.S. military assets are deployed to the Persian Gulf to enforce the shipping blockade. A worldwide ban is imposed on investments in Iran's energy sector. International lending to Iran and investment in Iranian bonds are also banned.

Estimated Global Cost: $325 billion

Targeted strikes

The United States leads a limited air and special forces campaign, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military installations that are of some concern. In order to avoid escalation to a larger conflict the United States relies on the stealth and speed of this mission, not targeting Iranian military assets that could counter the strikes. U.S. forces run the risk of being targets.

Estimated Global Cost: $713 billion

Bombing

The United States leads a larger scale air campaign that targets Iran's nuclear facilities and its military to limit chances of Iranian forces being able to retaliate. Iranian air defenses, radar and aerial command and control facilities are bombed.

Estimated Global Cost: $1 trillion

Invasion

U.S. troops invade Iran. A naval blockade and "no-fly" zone are imposed as U.S. forces systematically take down Iran's military bases, destroying each installation one by one. Large numbers of ground troops would be needed for this mission

Estimated Global Cost: $1.7 trillion

De-escalation

The United States makes concessions to resolve the conflict over Iran's nuclear program. Sanctions are temporarily suspended and America scales back its military presence in the Persian Gulf, redeploying an aircraft carrier to another area. Oil prices around the world drop, investments increase in the region and markets react positively now that the threat of a conflict is diminished.

Estimated Global Gain: $60 billion

Current sanctions

Not addressed by the group on Thursday were the current U.S. and international sanctions against Iran that target the country's oil by cutting off the U.S. financial system from any entity that facilitates the purchase of Iranian oil through the Central Bank of Iran. The European Union also has an embargo on the purchase of Iranian petroleum. Combined the sanctions are crippling Iran's economy and has caused Iran's currency, the rial, to plummet to historic lows.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/15/world/iran-war-cost/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+Most+Recent%29

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if USA decides a war with Iran it will not be easy as it was with Iraq and Afeganisthan...

and if i´m not wrong, Russia is an Iran´s "friend" right?

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if USA decides a war with Iran it will not be easy as it was with Iraq and Afeganisthan...

and if i´m not wrong, Russia is an Iran´s "friend" right?

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How much does it cost to supply African countries with food?

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How much does it cost to supply African countries with food?

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How much does it cost to supply African countries with food?

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Only $3 trillion? Try more. Way more.

Iran has about a million trained troops, more than the population of both Iraq and Afghanistan, and twice the geographical area of both.

Afghanistan and Iraq were both in states of chaos, with leaders hardly having much control over their own military. Toppling them was like pushing over a fat kid who was bending over to grab a twinkie.

While it's still in the realm of do-able as far as the US bombing them into oblivion is concerned, it would put the US so far into debt and stretch their military so thin it would pretty much spell doom for their currency and thus economy. So, why not? Only problem is, Harper is a US lackey and would drag Canada into a mess like this as well.

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No ground invasion is going to happen The USA is not going into another war after leaving one unless Iran does a 9-11 type attack. if anything happens it will be air strikes on Nuke facilities. It does'nt matter if Iran have 5 million in their Army 3-4 weeks of bombs landing on their heads they would all surrender and their officers would run away just like Iraq did in 1990.

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The cost of eradicating poverty is 1% of global income. billion a year (equivalent to 0.5% of annual global income) would ensure universal access to basic social services (basic education, health, nutrition, access to water and sewerage disposal).

spacer.gifspacer.gifspacer.giffleche_small.gif An effective improvement in the situation of the 20 poorest countries would cost 5 billion – equivalent to the cost of building EuroDisney.

spacer.gifspacer.gifspacer.giffleche_small.gif Reducing the debt of the most heavily indebted countries would cost between 5 and 7.5 billion – less than the cost of a Stealth bomber.

spacer.gifspacer.gifspacer.giffleche_small.gif

Extreme poverty could be banished from the globe by 2015

United Nations Development Fund

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It does'nt matter if Iran have 5 million in their Army 3-4 weeks of bombs landing on their heads they would all surrender and their officers would run away just like Iraq did in 1990.

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USA forgets about these things:

1) Iran has an airforce and can defend itself, and they have allies (Russia, China, etc)

2) an angry mob using junkyard weapons can be a very hard challenge, because this angry mob will give their lifes to destroy the "intruders"...

3) let´s imagine that Iran really has a nuclear weapon, they will use them for sure if USA/Israel bomb them...

4) with a very high tecnology the USA had a very hard task against the rebels from Iraq and Afeganisthan. and the rebels used old soviet weapons. again, junkyard battle isn´t easy, it looks easy but it isn´t...

5) I´m not sure if USA really wants another war. the economy isn´t wonderfull enought to spend on weapons...

6) it will cost a trillion at the 1st moment, but if the conflict goes longer it will cost more...

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USA forgets about these things:

1) Iran has an airforce and can defend itself, and they have allies (Russia, China, etc)

2) an angry mob using junkyard weapons can be a very hard challenge, because this angry mob will give their lifes to destroy the "intruders"...

3) let´s imagine that Iran really has a nuclear weapon, they will use them for sure if USA/Israel bomb them...

4) with a very high tecnology the USA had a very hard task against the rebels from Iraq and Afeganisthan. and the rebels used old soviet weapons. again, junkyard battle isn´t easy, it looks easy but it isn´t...

5) I´m not sure if USA really wants another war. the economy isn´t wonderfull enought to spend on weapons...

6) it will cost a trillion at the 1st moment, but if the conflict goes longer it will cost more...

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No ground invasion is going to happen The USA is not going into another war after leaving one unless Iran does a 9-11 type attack. if anything happens it will be air strikes on Nuke facilities. It does'nt matter if Iran have 5 million in their Army 3-4 weeks of bombs landing on their heads they would all surrender and their officers would run away just like Iraq did in 1990.

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1. Yes they can defend themselves, alot more than the Iraq's and Afghani's could but superiority is clearly claimed by the West.

Russia has more of a open friendship with Iran, China is more quiet on that front but yes they do support Iran. Would Russia or China 'intervene' if a war was launched on Iran?? Still tough to predict but definitely relations with the West would plummet.

2. Yup, Any nation, when the people are defending their own homeland against foreign invaders they make for the most formidable opponent.

3. You can imagine, but they dont have the weapon, and they would still need to develop/test the deployment system, and would have very limited range. So basically they would nuke there own land where the foreign troops amass. Most likely wouldnt go over very well with the civilians of Iran. Since launching a nuke against a true Nuclear Power like US or Israel would be a death wish.

4. Refer to point 2.

5. Wars aren't fought to benefit the American people, there fought to benefit the military-industrial-complex which btw is foaming at its mouth ready to go.

6. Agreed, a lot more. Most likely trigger a new global cold war build up.

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