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Will the canucks have a chance at #1 Draft pick?

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#1 tmak01

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:20 PM

Just wondering if there is no season will everyone in the NHL have a shot at the #1 pick. I believe thats how Pittsburgh got Crosby.

That would be deadly if canucks get a shot at a # 1 pick because we have never picked #1.
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#2 Kassian

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:21 PM

slim to none chance. I say the best we could get is maybe 10-15th.
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#3 G-52

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:22 PM

I believe it is possible, but the chance is a lot lower than 1 in 30.
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#4 tmak01

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:25 PM

I believe it is possible, but the chance is a lot lower than 1 in 30.


Why do we have less than 1 in 30 chance if noone plays than everyone should have an equal chance?
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#5 Drybone

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:29 PM

It would be nice for a change if they just put all 30 balls into the machine and gave everyone equal chance.
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#6 Squeak

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:30 PM

Why do we have less than 1 in 30 chance if noone plays than everyone should have an equal chance?


It was based on a weighted system last lockout.

The loss of the 2004–05 season meant that there were no results on which to base the order of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. The league settled on a lottery system in which all teams had a weighted chance at the first pick, expected to be Sidney Crosby. The lottery was tilted so teams with fewer playoff appearances over the last three seasons and fewer number one overall picks over the last four seasons had a better chance of landing higher picks.

The complete order was determined by the lottery, and the draft was conducted in a "snake" style, meaning in even rounds, the draft order was reversed. This system was an attempt to compromise between those who felt all teams should have had an equal chance at the first pick and those who felt only the weaker teams should have been in the running.


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#7 canuck_trevor16

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:37 PM

low low chance.....I read somewhere that the NHL rig the lottery so the pens could get the number 1 pick.....
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#8 Wheels22

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:41 PM

I wonder if we have the worst luck with 1st round picks.. Only a small percentage of ours go on to do great things with our team...
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#9 CanucksFanMike

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:41 PM

yes, but it is a very very very small chance

Edited by CanucksFanMike, 21 November 2012 - 05:43 PM.

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#10 avelanch

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:45 PM

*
POPULAR

with the 2005 lottery rules in effect this is how it would go:
Each team begins with three balls in the lottery barrel. For every playoff appearance in the last three years or No. 1 overall pick over the last four years, a team loses one ball.

3 ball teams
CALGARY
DALLAS
TORONTO
COLUMBUS
WINNIPEG
CAROLINA
MINNESOTA

2 ball teams
NY ISLANDERS
ANAHEIM
COLORADO
ST. LOUIS
TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA

1 ball teams
EDMONTON
PITTSBURGH
PHILADELPHIA
BOSTON
WASHINGTON
NY RANGERS
VANCOUVER
SAN JOSE
DETROIT
NASHVILLE
PHOENIX
LOS ANGELES
CHICAGO
NEW JERSEY
BUFFALO
OTTAWA
MONTRÉAL

That means we'd have a 1 in 50 (2%) chance to get 1st overall...

Edited by avelanch, 21 November 2012 - 05:46 PM.

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#11 tmak01

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:47 PM

Bettman prob give it to a crapty team in the States so he can try saving ho

low low chance.....I read somewhere that the NHL rig the lottery so the pens could get the number 1 pick.....


Bettman will prob give it to a crapty team in the states so he can try saving hockey in a bad market,
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#12 Squeak

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:47 PM

with the 2005 lottery rules in effect this is how it would go:
Each team begins with three balls in the lottery barrel. For every playoff appearance in the last three years or No. 1 overall pick over the last four years, a team loses one ball.

3 ball teams
CALGARY
DALLAS
TORONTO
COLUMBUS
WINNIPEG
CAROLINA
MINNESOTA

2 ball teams
NY ISLANDERS
ANAHEIM
COLORADO
ST. LOUIS
TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA

1 ball teams
EDMONTON
PITTSBURGH
PHILADELPHIA
BOSTON
WASHINGTON
NY RANGERS
VANCOUVER
SAN JOSE
DETROIT
NASHVILLE
PHOENIX
LOS ANGELES
CHICAGO
NEW JERSEY
BUFFALO
OTTAWA
MONTRÉAL

That means we'd have a 1 in 50 (2%) chance to get 1st overall...


Thank you for doing the work.
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#13 Langdon Algur

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:48 PM

Why do we have less than 1 in 30 chance if noone plays than everyone should have an equal chance?


The lottery will be weighted based on past success and recent #1 picks.
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#14 honey badger36

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:49 PM

low low chance.....I read somewhere that the NHL rig the lottery so the pens could get the number 1 pick.....


this!(worded better).

I don't expect we will be getting a high pick.
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#15 avelanch

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:49 PM

Thank you for doing the work.

i did it before, back in september, i just had to search my post history for it. :P
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#16 Pineapples

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:50 PM

low low chance.....I read somewhere that the NHL rig the lottery so the pens could get the number 1 pick.....


Pitts was a failing market back then so it's not surprising people would think that.
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#17 PlayingBurke

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:50 PM

The Columbus Blue Jackets # 1 and Dallas Stars # 2 heard it here first.
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#18 avelanch

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:50 PM

The Columbus Blue Jackets # 1 and Dallas Stars # 2 heard it here first.

you forgot about phoenix...
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#19 Pineapples

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:51 PM

Imagine if every years draft was done this way. It actually wouldn't be too bad, since garbage teams wouldn't be rewarded with stanley cups.
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#20 PlayingBurke

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:53 PM

you forgot about phoenix...


They will have the third overall pick and take Shinkurk. They'll be good. This is a deep draft!
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#21 avelanch

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:55 PM

They will have the third overall pick and take Shinkurk. They'll be good. This is a deep draft!

Betteman's pet project and vested personal interest will come first, meaning Phoenix will get the #1 for sure.
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#22 Squeak

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 05:59 PM

Betteman's pet project and vested personal interest will come first, meaning Phoenix will get the #1 for sure.


... and nobody will care.
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#23 Alchemy Time

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:02 PM

I wonder if we have the worst luck with 1st round picks.. Only a small percentage of ours go on to do great things with our team...


Like the Sedins, Linden, Kesler, Nedved, Ohlund, Schnieder etc.

Edited by ER15, 21 November 2012 - 06:04 PM.

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#24 BananaMash

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:04 PM

Oh CDCers, I just imagine that some of you look like this:

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#25 bossram

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:27 PM

We do have a chance at 1st overall if the lockout erases the whole season. Every team does.
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#26 TheEhrhoffEffect

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:29 PM

I wonder if we have the worst luck with 1st round picks.. Only a small percentage of ours go on to do great things with our team...

Not really luck, more like poor choices and development.
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#27 Squeak

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:30 PM

We do have a chance at 1st overall if the lockout erases the whole season. Every team does.


Actually every team does even if there is a season.

Theoretically - before the season starts, any team can implode and finish last. With a shortened season, the 'odds' of being a 'random' team is much higher (rather then the perennial 'bottom-feeders')
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#28 zombieksa

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:36 PM

Last lockout we took 10th overall (RIP Luc) with a 1/48 (2.08%)

The teams with 3 balls ended up being picked: 1st, 6th, 13th, 16th

The teams with 2 balls ended up being picked: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th, 17th, 18th, 25th, 26th

So even though Vancouver only had 1 ball to choose they still beat out 2 teams with 3 balls and 5 teams with 2 balls.

It is al luck and odds.
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#29 Niloc009

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:42 PM

Not really luck, more like poor choices and development.


Poor choices? LOL

Looking at our 1st round picks since 2000, our track record looks pretty great.
2000 - Nathan Smith (BUST)
2001 - RJ Umberger (6 time 20 goal scorer, but did not develop with VAN)
2002 - No 1st Rounder
2003 - Ryan Kesler (2nd line centre Selke winner)
2004 - Cory Schneider (One of the best young goaltenders in the league)
2005 - Luc Bourdon (Would have been a top 4 defender had the tragic accident not happened, RIP)
2006 - Michael Grabner (Developed with VAN, but wasn't in proper shape, this was admitted by Grabner himself)
2007 - Patrick White (BUST)
2008 - Cody Hodgson (Developed by VAN, traded due to drama issues, got a top power forward prospect in return)
2009 - Jordan Schroeder (Ranked as a top 5 North American prospect, should have been a steal at 22)
2010 - No 1st Rounder
2011 - Nicklas Jensen (Leading scorer on SEL team)
2012 - Brendan Gaunce (One of the draft's most NHL ready prospects, lots of defensive potential)


Man, our first round drafting and development just SUCKSSSSS.

Edited by Niloc009, 21 November 2012 - 07:20 PM.

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#30 Pears

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Posted 21 November 2012 - 06:49 PM

Not really luck, more like poor choices and development.

I'd say its more poor choices than poor development. There is a long list of current stars that could be Canucks right now.
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In my eyes drouin is overrated he can score in the qmjhl but did nothing in last two gold medal games that canada lost. Fox will be better pro than him talk to me in five yrs

Gaudreau has one NHL goal whereas all your "prized" prospects have none.

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