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Justin Trudeau - Suffering from Foot in Mouth - Canadian Style


Wetcoaster

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The more exposure that Justin Trudeau gets, the more warts become apparent... and he has not even got very far into his Liberal leadership campaign.

He is like a bright shiny toy but that does not mean he is immune from tarnish and it is already beginning. He looks to be the gift that keeps on giving for his political opponents both inside and outside the LPC.

As Kelly McParland writes in the National Post today:

If Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were quietly pleased when Justin Trudeau chose to enter the Liberal leadership race, they must be downright gleeful today.

Trudeau always carried great potential as a gift to the government. A young, inexperienced MP, with little track record in politics or anything else, but imbued with the Trudeau sense of confidence and plenty of Trudeau acolytes ready to buttress his ambitions. The launch of his campaign was carried on live TV, setting the bar high from the get-go, ensuring that anything less than a regal march to a leadership coronation would be viewed as a letdown. Trudeau’s campaign had to be pretty much flawless to succeed. Martha Hall Findlay and Marc Garneau might get away with a slip here or there, in some local Legion Hall where no one was watching too closely, but not Justin. Not only is every word parsed for implications, but opinions he delivered long before he entered the race are being re-evaluated under newer contexts.

There were bound to be stumbles, and they were bound to be magnified. But Trudeau has delivered more than the Tories could have hoped, and perhaps earlier than they expected. He’d barely finished explaining what he really meant when he suggested Albertans were a bunch of no-account losers who shouldn’t be allowed within sniffing distance of power, when he was forced to explain what he really meant when he said the gun registry — one of the proudest achievements of recent Liberalism — was “a failure” that he wouldn’t resuscitate as prime minister.

There is some justice to his claim that he’d been misunderstood, that his criticism of the registry was over its effect, not its aims. It did, indeed, divide Canadians, and it did cost the Liberals much support in rural areas and in the West (though western support has long been minimal anyway). He didn’t say it was a bad idea that never should have been tried, or that it was a waste of time that failed to prevent gun crimes (though it largely was). What he said was true: “It ended up dividing Canadians more than it actually protected Canadians,” and that public support eventually eroded to the point that it could be shut down by the Conservatives.

The damage has been considerable nonetheless. He now has his own party on his back. Martin Cauchon, a former MP and potential leadership rival, took issue with Trudeau’s badmouthing of a policy of which many Liberals remain proud. “A candidate running should have the backbone to respect and stand for the principles that we have always stood for,” he said. “I do hope that the starting point for our party will be to respect key values and key principles and, to me, the gun registry is an important one … I can’t imagine having one single candidate in our race saying the gun registry — what was the term that he used? — a failure.”

At the same time, Martha Hall Findlay was decrying Trudeau’s remarks about Alberta, which likely contributed to the loss of a close by-election race in Calgary. “Whether I’m an Albertan or I’m Ontarian, whether I’m from anywhere in this country, those comments do not reflect me, they don’t reflect my views of this country,” she said.

In both cases, the damage isn’t just that Trudeau took stances that other Liberals disagree with. Parties should have disagreements, it’s an excellent antidote to political sclerosis. Much worse was the reaction: i.e. that Justin and his camp had to scramble to reframe his words, to soften the impact, to assure everyone he didn’t mean it, that he was still safely within the confines of accepted Liberal thought. By the afternoon, just as he had with his Alberta remarks, Trudeau was denying he’d said what everyone thought he’d said. The gun registry was a failure, he explained, because it had failed. It no longer existed, therefore it must be a failure. If it was a success, it would still exist. Except in Quebec, where it wasn’t divisive, therefore it wasn’t a failure. See?

It didn’t make a lot of sense, and Liberals like Cauchon weren’t buying. If the Tories shut down the healthcare system, would that make it a failure too? The official, acceptable, Liberal view is that the registry was a magnificent initiative, ruined by a pack of trigger-happy Conservative neanderthals.

If you think you’ve seen this before, it’s because you have. Michael Ignatieff, like Trudeau, framed his campaign as an opportunity to revivify the party, explore new ideas, question old assumptions and appeal to a new generation of supporters. But when Ignatieff strayed mildly outside Liberal orthodoxy, the blowback was so fierce he retreated into standard Liberalism, allowing the party fathers to smother any notion of bold ideas under a blanket of standard Liberal mumbo jumbo. After a year or two he was just another wishy-washy Liberal trying to rally support behind tired ideas voters had already rejected. Now Trudeau is being pressured into the same corner. Its fine with party elders for him to be bold and inventive, just as long as they’re not too bold or too inventive. What they would really like is a clean new face on tired old ideas, and Justin fits that mold as long as he flashes his endearing smile, gets the faithful feeling good about themselves, and doesn’t threaten any of the dwindling band of committed allies.

Trudeau now has to watch himself. He’s already given Albertans reason to be wary of the sudden Liberal interest in their welfare. He’s similarly given rural voters reason to believe he’s less than sincere in claiming sympathy with their views. He’s handed the Tories rich material to accuse him of saying anything an audience wants to hear, of taking one position in Quebec, another in Ontario and a third in the West. If he has any hopes of staying in the race, he’ll have to be cautious, and watch what he says. He’ll have to avoid being divisive, and further aggravating fellow Liberals. He’ll have to mince words, sidestep controversy, learn to talk without saying anything. He’ll have to hint at change without really getting into specifics. He’ll have to be like other Liberals. Which is exactly what did in Ignatieff.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/12/04/kelly-mcparland-justin-trudeau-learns-that-liberals-want-new-ideas-just-like-the-old-ones/

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So you now concede that polls matter.

What's next? You'll admit that Harper and the Cons are scared of JT? lol

Ipsos Reid failed to ask what the voting opinion would be if JT were Liberal leader. Fairly important aspect in determining the JT effect, which is of course what started a lot of Con/National Post panic reaction.

Still, Ipsos Reid is indicative of Liberal momentum. The Liberals are gaining big ground in Ontario and Quebec already, before the Liberal leadership race is even over. This is a trend the Cons must figure out how stop, since while the Cons can lose Quebec and still win an election, they cannot lose Quebec and Ontario and still win an election.

The Cons should probably first realize that JT is not Ignatieff.

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So you now concede that polls matter.

What's next? You'll admit that Harper and the Cons are scared of JT? lol

Ipsos Reid failed to ask what the voting opinion would be if JT were Liberal leader. Fairly important aspect in determining the JT effect, which is of course what started a lot of Con/National Post panic reaction.

Still, Ipsos Reid is indicative of Liberal momentum. The Liberals are gaining big ground in Ontario and Quebec already, before the Liberal leadership race is even over. This is a trend the Cons must figure out how stop, since while the Cons can lose Quebec and still win an election, they cannot lose Quebec and Ontario and still win an election.

The Cons should probably first realize that JT is not Ignatieff.

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I never said they did not matter but polls are ephemeral and provide a snapshot in time. In the end result the only poll that really matters is the one in which votes are counted and elections are won or lost. As we learned from watching Nate Silver at work in the recent US elections it is about poll aggregation and identifying sustainable trends over time.

There seems little for the Conservatives to be scared of given Justin Trudeau's recent stumbles. And this is before the pressure is turned up.

And as Eric Grenier writing for the Globe and Mail (he also writes at Nate Silver's blog fivethirtyeight.com) caution about such results in an article titled “Will Liberals keep their Trudeau bounce in the polls? Probably not” in which he looks back at past leadership race bounces:

Stéphane Dion’s victory on Dec. 2, 2006 was followed with a surge in Liberal support – the party averaged 36 per cent in polls taken during the rest of that month. But the party quickly fell back down to Earth, dropping to 34 per cent in January 2007 before sinking to 30 per cent between February and April. By June, six months after the convention, the party was back down to 29 per cent.

The New Democrats also saw a boost in support after their convention. With Mr. Mulcair at the helm, the NDP soared to 35 per cent immediately after his victory and kept that level of support in May and June. The slide began in July, however, as the NDP averaged 33 per cent before dropping to 31 per cent in September. The latest Nanos poll put the NDP at only 28 per cent support, exactly where the party was before Mr. Mulcair was named leader little more than six months ago.

Based on how the polls moved in 2006 and earlier this year, the Liberals might be able to expect a three- to four-point bump in the months after they name their leader in April 2013. But they might also need to expect a drop of two to three points by the end of next year.

This serves as a cautionary tale for the Liberal Party. Mr. Trudeau might give their numbers a boost in the short term and they can probably expect a surge in support after they name their next leader. But this sort of increase can be fleeting, and what matters is where the party’s support will be by the time the next election rolls around in 2015. The last three leaders of the Liberals left their parties in worse positions than when they took over, even after leading in the polls for a time. Mr. Trudeau or whoever else wins the leadership will need to break that streak if the party is to survive.

BTW when was that poll taken? I have searched Abacus Data polls and I am unable to find that poll. Do you have a link?

Here is what Abacus Data has to say in their latest poll (November 13, 2012):

Federal Politics: Tories lead by 7; NDP down 6 and Liberals up 5. A majority of Canadians now think the country is headed in the right direction.

According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, the Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP.

Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.

And Abacus Datas sounds the same warning as Grenier concerning the Trudeau bounce and that the numbers with Liberals eating into NDP support greatly help the Conservatives.

A majority of Canadians now believe the country is generally heading in the right direction, a 10-point increase since September.

rightdirection.png

Despite the rosier public outlook, the federal government’s approval rating nor the favourability rating of Prime Minister Harper have improved much since September. The right direction/wrong track measure is often a leading indicator for other measures and so it may take more time for these other measures to improve for the federal government.

In terms of politics, Justin Trudeau’s entry into the Liberal leadership race has certainly buoyed the spirits of not only Liberal members, but also Liberal vote intentions across the country. At 22% support among decided voters, the Liberal Party is at its highest point in our tracking since the May 2011 election.

For Tom Mulcair and the NDP, the Liberal Party’s growth has likely come completely at the expense of the Official Opposition. NDP support is down six points across the country with a notable decline in Quebec (-9), and Alberta (-11). The impact in Alberta will be negligible but a significant drop in Quebec means a likely loss of seats.

This month’s results reminds me of the lead up to the 2011 federal election where the NDP and Liberals split significant portions of the centre-left, anti-Harper vote. With a seven point lead and a divided left, the rebirth of the Liberals and the maintenance of a sizeable NDP base would be a dream come true for the Conservative Government headed into 2015.

We will have to wait and see whether the renewed optimism among Canadians and the bump in Liberal support holds over the next few months of tracking.

http://abacusdata.ca...29-liberals-22/

And the latest voter intention numbers from Abacus Data (November 13, 2012):

ballot.png

Federal Politics: Tories lead by 7; NDP down 6 and Liberals up 5. A majority of Canadians now think the country is headed in the right direction.

According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, the Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP.

Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.

This is the first time since the 2011 federal election that the Liberals have been at 22% nationally.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in Alberta (60%) and in Ontario (43%) while the NDP is ahead British Columbia (40%). In Quebec, the NDP is now statistically tied with the BQ (BQ 31% vs. NDP 30%) while the Liberal Party support in Quebec is up to 21%, an 8-points increase since September.

Polls at this point in the election cycle are like the weather in Vancouver - if you do not like the weather wait an hour and it will likely change.

And as things look the biggest problem if Trudeau becomes leader will be for the NDP and if the Liberals and NDP beat each other up, it only will help the CPC.

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