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Justin Trudeau - Suffering from Foot in Mouth - Canadian Style


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#271 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:52 AM

Dec.1 - TO Sun - David Akin, Parl. Bureau Chief

ALFRED, ONT. - After following Justin Trudeau's Liberal leadership campaign tour around eastern Ontario Friday, two things stood out.

First, Trudeau's supporters really like to touch him. Their relationship with their candidate is a tactile one. They grab his arm. They hug him. He is the Liberal plush toy.

Second, Trudeau considers the long gun registry to be a dead issue. Should he win the Liberal leadership and should he lead a government he will not be reviving the long gun registry.

That first observation may not come as much of a surprise. His popularity has been taken as a given in this race but the depth or intensity of the enthusiasm Trudeau can command really has to be seen to be believed. It is an unqualified political asset.

Here in Alfred, a tiny Franco-Ontarion community that is just about halfway between Ottawa and Montreal, one woman in her 60s arrived 30 minutes early for a lunchtime chat with Trudeau and promptly announced she couldn't wait to jump up and kiss him.

But that second observation, about Trudeau's comments on the gun registry, says something about the political smarts many of his opponents refuse to acknowledge.

Trudeau was speaking about the registry because he was challenged on it by one of the blue-collar, punch-the-clock guys who works at the helicopter parts factory that Trudeau toured Friday.

Trudeau meandered a bit in his response but he did answer. Though he voted in Parliament to keep the long gun registry, he will not resurrect it. Instead, Trudeau wants to use the gun registry debate to make a point about how the Harper Conservatives used the issue to divide Canadians who, he said, are united in their concern to protect traditional ways of living and reduce gun crime.

His answer is crafted to simultaneously win over the "law-abiding duck hunters" the Conservatives all but own politically as well as the inner-city urban single moms worried about gun crime, a demographic that makes up a healthy portion of Trudeau's own working-class riding of Papineau in Montreal. It might be na´ve to think you can win both but at least he's making an intelligent pitch for them.

Trudeau's political opponents dismiss him as all fluff and no substance. After the factory tour in Hawkesbury, a 15-minute drive east of here, Trudeau went to a senior citizens home where a supporter asked what he and his team were going to do to counter attacks that he's a political airhead.

The short answer from Trudeau: Not a thing.

"It's a question I haven't spent a lot of time worrying about," Trudeau replied.

And why should he? He doesn't have to prove he can win. Consider this: In 2007, he won a hard-fought battle to win the Liberal nomination in Papineau. The Liberal establishment was cool, at best, and hostile, at worst, to the idea of Trudeau becoming an MP.

Having secured the nomination, Trudeau then proceeded to knock off a popular incumbent Bloc Quebecois in the 2008 general election. Then, in 2011, when the Orange Wave was sweeping Quebec, the blue-collar, slightly sovereignist Papineau riding should have been the first to jump on Jack Layton's bandwagon. Instead, Trudeau increased his margin of victory while many other Liberals were swamped and defeated.

Notably, Marc Garneau, seen as the best hope to prevent Trudeau from becoming leader, lost in the 2006 general election to a BQ candidate in a suburban Montreal riding that should have been much easier to win than the one Trudeau picked.

After 2006, Garneau inherited Westmount-Ville Marie, a downtown Montreal riding that has been Liberal for just about forever. And he only took that inheritance - unopposed - after threatening to walk out on the Liberals unless they gave him that safe seat.

In the next general election, the Liberals will have to scrap and fight for every seat they can get. There is nothing in the otherwise impressive resume of Garneau to show he can win a tough political fight. But look past the hairdo and the flashy smile, and you'll see a successful political street fighter in Justin Trudeau.

Interesting take on the gun registry flop. 'A dead issue.' M'kay, then why are the Cons treating it like it's a really big deal then?

If these attacks are meant to affect JT, he seems to be brushing them off rather quickly. Smug arrogance? Or mere confidence?

This writer seems to beleive that JT is being somewhat underrated by the Cons. While other writers see JT as more fodder for the Conservative attack machine. In the end we'll see who's left. Or right. Hey, what happened to the middle?
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#272 Common sense

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:59 AM

Those who can, do .. those who cannot, belittle .. Wet is fearful of Justin stealing the Conservative's Realm ..


I always thought the end of that phrase went "those who cannot, teach"...as in what Trudeau had been doing in years past.

Edited by Common sense, 04 December 2012 - 02:00 AM.

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#273 hockeyfan87

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 09:31 AM

I consider the Federal Liberal party to be the closest to my own ideological view point but I don't think I could vote for them if Trudeau becomes leader. I know I'm not indicative of the masses who are swept in by his name, curls and airy fairy discourse but could anyone really see effectively representing Canada's interests on the international stage?
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#274 Wetcoaster

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:21 AM

I consider the Federal Liberal party to be the closest to my own ideological view point but I don't think I could vote for them if Trudeau becomes leader. I know I'm not indicative of the masses who are swept in by his name, curls and airy fairy discourse but could anyone really see effectively representing Canada's interests on the international stage?

Trudeau might deliver peace in the Middle East?

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#275 J.R.

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:30 AM

:rolleyes:
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#276 Tearloch7

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:19 PM

Young Justin really has some folks scared it seems .. gonna be fun watching the Con's and their ilk try to smear him effectively ..
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#277 Wetcoaster

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:33 PM

Young Justin really has some folks scared it seems .. gonna be fun watching the Con's and their ilk try to smear him effectively ..

Not much to be scared about with "Young Justin"... unless you are a member of the Liberal party of Canada.
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#278 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:38 PM

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#279 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:41 PM

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#280 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:46 PM

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If that's not scary enough, then try this:

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lol
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#281 Wetcoaster

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:57 PM

The more exposure that Justin Trudeau gets, the more warts become apparent... and he has not even got very far into his Liberal leadership campaign.

He is like a bright shiny toy but that does not mean he is immune from tarnish and it is already beginning. He looks to be the gift that keeps on giving for his political opponents both inside and outside the LPC.

As Kelly McParland writes in the National Post today:


If Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were quietly pleased when Justin Trudeau chose to enter the Liberal leadership race, they must be downright gleeful today.


Trudeau always carried great potential as a gift to the government. A young, inexperienced MP, with little track record in politics or anything else, but imbued with the Trudeau sense of confidence and plenty of Trudeau acolytes ready to buttress his ambitions. The launch of his campaign was carried on live TV, setting the bar high from the get-go, ensuring that anything less than a regal march to a leadership coronation would be viewed as a letdown. Trudeau’s campaign had to be pretty much flawless to succeed. Martha Hall Findlay and Marc Garneau might get away with a slip here or there, in some local Legion Hall where no one was watching too closely, but not Justin. Not only is every word parsed for implications, but opinions he delivered long before he entered the race are being re-evaluated under newer contexts.


There were bound to be stumbles, and they were bound to be magnified. But Trudeau has delivered more than the Tories could have hoped, and perhaps earlier than they expected. He’d barely finished explaining what he really meant when he suggested Albertans were a bunch of no-account losers who shouldn’t be allowed within sniffing distance of power, when he was forced to explain what he really meant when he said the gun registry — one of the proudest achievements of recent Liberalism — was “a failure” that he wouldn’t resuscitate as prime minister.


There is some justice to his claim that he’d been misunderstood, that his criticism of the registry was over its effect, not its aims. It did, indeed, divide Canadians, and it did cost the Liberals much support in rural areas and in the West (though western support has long been minimal anyway). He didn’t say it was a bad idea that never should have been tried, or that it was a waste of time that failed to prevent gun crimes (though it largely was). What he said was true: “It ended up dividing Canadians more than it actually protected Canadians,” and that public support eventually eroded to the point that it could be shut down by the Conservatives.


The damage has been considerable nonetheless. He now has his own party on his back. Martin Cauchon, a former MP and potential leadership rival, took issue with Trudeau’s badmouthing of a policy of which many Liberals remain proud. “A candidate running should have the backbone to respect and stand for the principles that we have always stood for,” he said. “I do hope that the starting point for our party will be to respect key values and key principles and, to me, the gun registry is an important one … I can’t imagine having one single candidate in our race saying the gun registry — what was the term that he used? — a failure.”


At the same time, Martha Hall Findlay was decrying Trudeau’s remarks about Alberta, which likely contributed to the loss of a close by-election race in Calgary. “Whether I’m an Albertan or I’m Ontarian, whether I’m from anywhere in this country, those comments do not reflect me, they don’t reflect my views of this country,” she said.


In both cases, the damage isn’t just that Trudeau took stances that other Liberals disagree with. Parties should have disagreements, it’s an excellent antidote to political sclerosis. Much worse was the reaction: i.e. that Justin and his camp had to scramble to reframe his words, to soften the impact, to assure everyone he didn’t mean it, that he was still safely within the confines of accepted Liberal thought. By the afternoon, just as he had with his Alberta remarks, Trudeau was denying he’d said what everyone thought he’d said. The gun registry was a failure, he explained, because it had failed. It no longer existed, therefore it must be a failure. If it was a success, it would still exist. Except in Quebec, where it wasn’t divisive, therefore it wasn’t a failure. See?


It didn’t make a lot of sense, and Liberals like Cauchon weren’t buying. If the Tories shut down the healthcare system, would that make it a failure too? The official, acceptable, Liberal view is that the registry was a magnificent initiative, ruined by a pack of trigger-happy Conservative neanderthals.


If you think you’ve seen this before, it’s because you have. Michael Ignatieff, like Trudeau, framed his campaign as an opportunity to revivify the party, explore new ideas, question old assumptions and appeal to a new generation of supporters. But when Ignatieff strayed mildly outside Liberal orthodoxy, the blowback was so fierce he retreated into standard Liberalism, allowing the party fathers to smother any notion of bold ideas under a blanket of standard Liberal mumbo jumbo. After a year or two he was just another wishy-washy Liberal trying to rally support behind tired ideas voters had already rejected. Now Trudeau is being pressured into the same corner. Its fine with party elders for him to be bold and inventive, just as long as they’re not too bold or too inventive. What they would really like is a clean new face on tired old ideas, and Justin fits that mold as long as he flashes his endearing smile, gets the faithful feeling good about themselves, and doesn’t threaten any of the dwindling band of committed allies.


Trudeau now has to watch himself. He’s already given Albertans reason to be wary of the sudden Liberal interest in their welfare. He’s similarly given rural voters reason to believe he’s less than sincere in claiming sympathy with their views. He’s handed the Tories rich material to accuse him of saying anything an audience wants to hear, of taking one position in Quebec, another in Ontario and a third in the West. If he has any hopes of staying in the race, he’ll have to be cautious, and watch what he says. He’ll have to avoid being divisive, and further aggravating fellow Liberals. He’ll have to mince words, sidestep controversy, learn to talk without saying anything. He’ll have to hint at change without really getting into specifics. He’ll have to be like other Liberals. Which is exactly what did in Ignatieff.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/12/04/kelly-mcparland-justin-trudeau-learns-that-liberals-want-new-ideas-just-like-the-old-ones/
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#282 Tearloch7

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:58 PM

^ ^ ^ .. all I can hear is the "Shark theme" from Jaws .. :lol:
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#283 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:45 PM

Hasn't everyone at the National Post already taken their shot already? Jeez. Wrap it up.
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#284 J.R.

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:12 PM

The more exposure that Justin Trudeau gets, the more warts become apparent... and he has not even got very far into his Liberal leadership campaign.


And yet even with those exposed warts...he's still kicking Harper's arse in poles :lol:

Edited by J.R., 04 December 2012 - 02:12 PM.

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#285 J.R.

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:19 PM

Imagine if the left actually merges like has been discussed.... :shock:
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#286 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:37 PM

What's interesting is that the Cons were behind even the NDP in polls just before the Trudeau factor came into play.

It would appear that Canadians outside Alberta are ready for a change.
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#287 Shift-4

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:39 PM

And yet even with those exposed warts...he's still kicking Harper's arse in poles :lol:


fix that spelling mistake..............

bad images ::D
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#288 Tearloch7

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:47 PM

Imagine if the left actually merges like has been discussed.... :shock:


That is my fervent wish .. the Cons would get 35% of the popular vote max, including Wild Rose Country .. :frantic: .. <<< there is some "spin" for the Con's .. :rolleyes:
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#289 J.R.

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:07 PM

fix that spelling mistake..............

bad images ::D


Freudian slip..? :bigblush:
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#290 Wetcoaster

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:23 PM

What's interesting is that the Cons were behind even the NDP in polls just before the Trudeau factor came into play.

It would appear that Canadians outside Alberta are ready for a change.

Not according to Ipsos Reid.


Buzz Around Justin Trudeau and Liberal Leadership Contest Creates Momentum, But Liberals (26%) Still Trail NDP (30%) and Conservatives (34%)

Friday, November 16, 2012

Toronto, ON – The entrance of Justin Trudeau into the Liberal leadership race, and the resulting buzz surrounding the Liberal Party, appears to have helped the Liberals gain back support from the NDP, according to a new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television.

http://www.ipsos-na....s-polls/canada/


The NDP is falling, the Liberal Party is surging and somewhere Stephen Harper is grinning.

That is the narrative, at least, of a newIpsos Reid poll conducted for Postmedia News and Global Television.
According to the survey released late Thursday, if an election were held tomorrow, 34 per cent of us would vote for the
Conservatives, 30 per cent would vote for the NDP, and 26 per cent would for the federal Liberals.

What's most intriguing about this poll, however, is the trend lines. Since June, the NDP have dropped eight points while the Liberals have gained eight.

Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker, told PostMedia that these numbers bode well for the Conservatives.
"It kind of put to rest the old assumption that most of the switching in this country is between Liberal and Tory voters. In fact what we're seeing with the Tory coalition is that it's pretty resilient," Bricker said.

"The better the Liberals do, the worse the NDP does, and the more likely Stephen Harper is to win."

Edited by Wetcoaster, 04 December 2012 - 03:32 PM.

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To err is human - but to really screw up you need a computer.

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#291 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:01 PM

So you now concede that polls matter.

What's next? You'll admit that Harper and the Cons are scared of JT? lol


Ipsos Reid failed to ask what the voting opinion would be if JT were Liberal leader. Fairly important aspect in determining the JT effect, which is of course what started a lot of Con/National Post panic reaction.

Still, Ipsos Reid is indicative of Liberal momentum. The Liberals are gaining big ground in Ontario and Quebec already, before the Liberal leadership race is even over. This is a trend the Cons must figure out how stop, since while the Cons can lose Quebec and still win an election, they cannot lose Quebec and Ontario and still win an election.

The Cons should probably first realize that JT is not Ignatieff.
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#292 J.R.

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:14 PM

*Waits for WAC Bennett quote to be trotted out*

...or perhaps Wet will find a less monotonous and repetitive way to regale us with his vast intellect?
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#293 Bob.Loblaw

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:35 PM

The next election is years away. What else can we talk about?
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#294 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:06 PM

Religion? lol
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#295 Wetcoaster

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:10 PM

So you now concede that polls matter.

What's next? You'll admit that Harper and the Cons are scared of JT? lol


Ipsos Reid failed to ask what the voting opinion would be if JT were Liberal leader. Fairly important aspect in determining the JT effect, which is of course what started a lot of Con/National Post panic reaction.

Still, Ipsos Reid is indicative of Liberal momentum. The Liberals are gaining big ground in Ontario and Quebec already, before the Liberal leadership race is even over. This is a trend the Cons must figure out how stop, since while the Cons can lose Quebec and still win an election, they cannot lose Quebec and Ontario and still win an election.

The Cons should probably first realize that JT is not Ignatieff.

I never said they did not matter but polls are ephemeral and provide a snapshot in time. In the end result the only poll that really matters is the one in which votes are counted and elections are won or lost. As we learned from watching Nate Silver at work in the recent US elections it is about poll aggregation and identifying sustainable trends over time.

There seems little for the Conservatives to be scared of given Justin Trudeau's recent stumbles. And this is before the pressure is turned up.

And as Eric Grenier writing for the Globe and Mail (he also writes at Nate Silver's blog fivethirtyeight.com) caution about such results in an article titled “Will Liberals keep their Trudeau bounce in the polls? Probably not” in which he looks back at past leadership race bounces:

Stéphane Dion’s victory on Dec. 2, 2006 was followed with a surge in Liberal support – the party averaged 36 per cent in polls taken during the rest of that month. But the party quickly fell back down to Earth, dropping to 34 per cent in January 2007 before sinking to 30 per cent between February and April. By June, six months after the convention, the party was back down to 29 per cent.


The New Democrats also saw a boost in support after their convention. With Mr. Mulcair at the helm, the NDP soared to 35 per cent immediately after his victory and kept that level of support in May and June. The slide began in July, however, as the NDP averaged 33 per cent before dropping to 31 per cent in September. The latest Nanos poll put the NDP at only 28 per cent support, exactly where the party was before Mr. Mulcair was named leader little more than six months ago.


Based on how the polls moved in 2006 and earlier this year, the Liberals might be able to expect a three- to four-point bump in the months after they name their leader in April 2013. But they might also need to expect a drop of two to three points by the end of next year.


This serves as a cautionary tale for the Liberal Party. Mr. Trudeau might give their numbers a boost in the short term and they can probably expect a surge in support after they name their next leader. But this sort of increase can be fleeting, and what matters is where the party’s support will be by the time the next election rolls around in 2015. The last three leaders of the Liberals left their parties in worse positions than when they took over, even after leading in the polls for a time. Mr. Trudeau or whoever else wins the leadership will need to break that streak if the party is to survive.


BTW when was that poll taken? I have searched Abacus Data polls and I am unable to find that poll. Do you have a link?

Here is what Abacus Data has to say in their latest poll (November 13, 2012):

Federal Politics: Tories lead by 7; NDP down 6 and Liberals up 5. A majority of Canadians now think the country is headed in the right direction.


According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, the Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP.


Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.





And Abacus Datas sounds the same warning as Grenier concerning the Trudeau bounce and that the numbers with Liberals eating into NDP support greatly help the Conservatives.

A majority of Canadians now believe the country is generally heading in the right direction, a 10-point increase since September.

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Despite the rosier public outlook, the federal government’s approval rating nor the favourability rating of Prime Minister Harper have improved much since September. The right direction/wrong track measure is often a leading indicator for other measures and so it may take more time for these other measures to improve for the federal government.


In terms of politics, Justin Trudeau’s entry into the Liberal leadership race has certainly buoyed the spirits of not only Liberal members, but also Liberal vote intentions across the country. At 22% support among decided voters, the Liberal Party is at its highest point in our tracking since the May 2011 election.


For Tom Mulcair and the NDP, the Liberal Party’s growth has likely come completely at the expense of the Official Opposition. NDP support is down six points across the country with a notable decline in Quebec (-9), and Alberta (-11). The impact in Alberta will be negligible but a significant drop in Quebec means a likely loss of seats.


This month’s results reminds me of the lead up to the 2011 federal election where the NDP and Liberals split significant portions of the centre-left, anti-Harper vote. With a seven point lead and a divided left, the rebirth of the Liberals and the maintenance of a sizeable NDP base would be a dream come true for the Conservative Government headed into 2015.


We will have to wait and see whether the renewed optimism among Canadians and the bump in Liberal support holds over the next few months of tracking.


http://abacusdata.ca...29-liberals-22/


And the latest voter intention numbers from Abacus Data (November 13, 2012):

Posted Image


Federal Politics: Tories lead by 7; NDP down 6 and Liberals up 5. A majority of Canadians now think the country is headed in the right direction.


According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, the Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP.


Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.


This is the first time since the 2011 federal election that the Liberals have been at 22% nationally.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in Alberta (60%) and in Ontario (43%) while the NDP is ahead British Columbia (40%). In Quebec, the NDP is now statistically tied with the BQ (BQ 31% vs. NDP 30%) while the Liberal Party support in Quebec is up to 21%, an 8-points increase since September.


Polls at this point in the election cycle are like the weather in Vancouver - if you do not like the weather wait an hour and it will likely change.

And as things look the biggest problem if Trudeau becomes leader will be for the NDP and if the Liberals and NDP beat each other up, it only will help the CPC.

Edited by Wetcoaster, 04 December 2012 - 05:14 PM.

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#296 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:26 PM

I disagree.
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#297 ronthecivil

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:37 PM

Imagine if the left actually merges like has been discussed.... :shock:


Then I would cry and have to bite my lip and vote conservative.
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#298 ronthecivil

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:41 PM

What else to talk about?

Well if the US goes over the fiscal cliff (25 days to go and that's if they work Christmas) there will be plenty to talk about come spring.
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#299 J.R.

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:47 PM

Then I would cry and have to bite my lip and vote conservative.


Silly
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#300 ronthecivil

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:51 PM

I never said they did not matter but polls are ephemeral and provide a snapshot in time. In the end result the only poll that really matters is the one in which votes are counted and elections are won or lost. As we learned from watching Nate Silver at work in the recent US elections it is about poll aggregation and identifying sustainable trends over time.

There seems little for the Conservatives to be scared of given Justin Trudeau's recent stumbles. And this is before the pressure is turned up.

And as Eric Grenier writing for the Globe and Mail (he also writes at Nate Silver's blog fivethirtyeight.com) caution about such results in an article titled “Will Liberals keep their Trudeau bounce in the polls? Probably not” in which he looks back at past leadership race bounces:

Stéphane Dion’s victory on Dec. 2, 2006 was followed with a surge in Liberal support – the party averaged 36 per cent in polls taken during the rest of that month. But the party quickly fell back down to Earth, dropping to 34 per cent in January 2007 before sinking to 30 per cent between February and April. By June, six months after the convention, the party was back down to 29 per cent.


The New Democrats also saw a boost in support after their convention. With Mr. Mulcair at the helm, the NDP soared to 35 per cent immediately after his victory and kept that level of support in May and June. The slide began in July, however, as the NDP averaged 33 per cent before dropping to 31 per cent in September. The latest Nanos poll put the NDP at only 28 per cent support, exactly where the party was before Mr. Mulcair was named leader little more than six months ago.


Based on how the polls moved in 2006 and earlier this year, the Liberals might be able to expect a three- to four-point bump in the months after they name their leader in April 2013. But they might also need to expect a drop of two to three points by the end of next year.


This serves as a cautionary tale for the Liberal Party. Mr. Trudeau might give their numbers a boost in the short term and they can probably expect a surge in support after they name their next leader. But this sort of increase can be fleeting, and what matters is where the party’s support will be by the time the next election rolls around in 2015. The last three leaders of the Liberals left their parties in worse positions than when they took over, even after leading in the polls for a time. Mr. Trudeau or whoever else wins the leadership will need to break that streak if the party is to survive.


BTW when was that poll taken? I have searched Abacus Data polls and I am unable to find that poll. Do you have a link?

Here is what Abacus Data has to say in their latest poll (November 13, 2012):


Federal Politics: Tories lead by 7; NDP down 6 and Liberals up 5. A majority of Canadians now think the country is headed in the right direction.


According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, the Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP.


Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.





And Abacus Datas sounds the same warning as Grenier concerning the Trudeau bounce and that the numbers with Liberals eating into NDP support greatly help the Conservatives.


A majority of Canadians now believe the country is generally heading in the right direction, a 10-point increase since September.

Posted Image


Despite the rosier public outlook, the federal government’s approval rating nor the favourability rating of Prime Minister Harper have improved much since September. The right direction/wrong track measure is often a leading indicator for other measures and so it may take more time for these other measures to improve for the federal government.


In terms of politics, Justin Trudeau’s entry into the Liberal leadership race has certainly buoyed the spirits of not only Liberal members, but also Liberal vote intentions across the country. At 22% support among decided voters, the Liberal Party is at its highest point in our tracking since the May 2011 election.


For Tom Mulcair and the NDP, the Liberal Party’s growth has likely come completely at the expense of the Official Opposition. NDP support is down six points across the country with a notable decline in Quebec (-9), and Alberta (-11). The impact in Alberta will be negligible but a significant drop in Quebec means a likely loss of seats.


This month’s results reminds me of the lead up to the 2011 federal election where the NDP and Liberals split significant portions of the centre-left, anti-Harper vote. With a seven point lead and a divided left, the rebirth of the Liberals and the maintenance of a sizeable NDP base would be a dream come true for the Conservative Government headed into 2015.


We will have to wait and see whether the renewed optimism among Canadians and the bump in Liberal support holds over the next few months of tracking.


http://abacusdata.ca...29-liberals-22/


And the latest voter intention numbers from Abacus Data (November 13, 2012):

Posted Image



Federal Politics: Tories lead by 7; NDP down 6 and Liberals up 5. A majority of Canadians now think the country is headed in the right direction.


According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, the Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP.


Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.


This is the first time since the 2011 federal election that the Liberals have been at 22% nationally.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in Alberta (60%) and in Ontario (43%) while the NDP is ahead British Columbia (40%). In Quebec, the NDP is now statistically tied with the BQ (BQ 31% vs. NDP 30%) while the Liberal Party support in Quebec is up to 21%, an 8-points increase since September.


Polls at this point in the election cycle are like the weather in Vancouver - if you do not like the weather wait an hour and it will likely change.

And as things look the biggest problem if Trudeau becomes leader will be for the NDP and if the Liberals and NDP beat each other up, it only will help the CPC.


Yep that's why i think get a math guy in like Garneau who will focus on the economy might do better at taking up the middle. I find it sad the liberals can't take up the middle while beating up the conservatives and their outdated backward social agenda AND the NDP and their outdated backward economic agenda.

Heck, it would even be easy to out policy the conservatives economically (uber low taxes that don't keep up with spending aren't working up here any better than in the states) AND the NDP (using kid gloves on criminals is one thing but one can be tough on crime without butting into everyone life, a social safety net not socialism, environmental sensibility not bureaucracy or a need to single handily save the planet from global warming by destroying our economy, etc. etc. etc.).

It's so freaking easy I don't know how they fail.
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