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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 4.0


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Are you asking me if it were my team would I offer someone else?

Nonis has his work cut out for him with a bunch of UFAs, young goaltenders, and a porous blueline.

At this point, an impatient fan base and owners that want playoff revenues are not going to want a real rebuild.

So imo the wing would be (moving) Kessel and the prayer would be trying to get an overpayment for Phaneuf.   It it were my team, I wouldn't have built it around Phaneuf and Kessel -  I'd start right there and convert their value into a different kind of Leafs core.  Imo they can't afford not to give those guys up - but the right deals could make them better immediately.   They need to pull a Holmgren and swing veteran for volume youth deals like the Richards, Carter (and Nash) deals.

When it comes to a Luongo deal, the Leafs best (two way and dollar for dollar) assets are their LWs and their top line center imo.  The Leafs have no real depth in the areas the Canucks need. If they want to build from the goaltender out, use the parts where they mispent - Kessel - and their most over-rated asset - Phaneuf - to retool on the go.  Use part of the return from those deals to get their goaltender.

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Well, I'll state the obvious. It appears as though Luo will start the season as a Canuck, splitting duties with Schneider. Not a bad move. Shortened season, and training camp, increasing the risk of injury. If both are fresh, it increases the chance of the Canucks stealing games this year, which is absolutely necessary with both Booth and Kesler out of the lineup.

As for the Leafs, if Nonis has backing from ownership, he will take the time to rebuild the team. And if he is really smart, he'll wait to trade for Luongo at the deadline or July 1st. The reason? Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry. With Luongo, the Leafs have no chance at winning the Stanley Cup, just giving up future assets to make a little extra revenue in the postseason, not win the Cup, and get more middle of the road draft picks. However, if the Leafs can somehow acquire Getzlaf or Perry at the trade deadline and sign to an extension, I see the Leafs then pulling the trigger on Luongo. Having an All-Star goaltender with one Getzlaf or Perry would significanlty bolster the Leafs roster and chances of at Least making the conference finals.

Otherwise, it really isn't in the teams best interest.

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But just as an aside for those so worried about the Canucks centers - you might want to have a look at a team like Chicago.  Beyond Toews, it looks like this:

Bolland

Kruger

Pirri

I wouldn't want to roll with that - even when healthy.  Beyond them, they move Shaw to C?  Another mini C?

Toews aside, they are all lightweights.  Bolland is the biggest of them at 184 lbs.

Their top prospect C is 165lbs...

They are going to get manhandled down low.  Some people consider that team a goaltender short of being a contender - I think they're extremely top heavy - once you get outside their top 5 or 6 players, they are average at best.

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:shock: So u reckon Kessel of Phaneuf is potentially coming back for Lou?

Or at least for someone...?

I must admit, as unpopular as it would be for TO its probably smart. Rebuilding has a potential to have a quick turnaround.

If I'm TO I'm investigating what I can get for Kessel. Unless (and I don't watch TO enough) Phaneuf is too slow, I'm inclined to think he still needs to be part of the equation. That team will completely tank if they lose Phaneuf. Gardiner, Liles and Komisarek individually are too small or too slow. TO may be willing to rebuild, but to blow it up?

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When teams like Toronto, Florida, or Philly start loosing 4, 5, or 6 goal games that is when Canucks are in a total commanding position to get the more effective deals.

It seems more logical to wait it out and not rush into any deal now until teams get desperate and you can really pile on the players, prospects, and picks.

Alternatively though this method could backfire of course. Theodore, Reimer, or Bryz could definitely turn it around and become the goalie they need. Once that happens we will no longer have the upper hand. So it might be better to act now before you lose the upper hand.

I personally think the wait and see approach is the best option and I believe that is what Mike Gillis is doing to get also.

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Hold on to him, it's a condensed season. Any team would be lucky to have 2 #1 goalies. Keep them both for another run this year and see what happens in the summer.

If MG does move him it will pbbly be at the trade deadline when Lu's value will be highest

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MG was on Team 1040 and reading between the lines it sounds like any deal to Toronto is dead. He slammed them for putting out crap out trying to negotiate in the media.

It actually sounded like nothing is on the burner close at all. He talked about "lots of things will happen in the first two weeks of the season"... presumably like injuries or goalies not living up to expectations. My bet is that barring another suitor coming into the mix we will have both goalies for a while.

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MG was on Team 1040 and reading between the lines it sounds like any deal to Toronto is dead. He slammed them for putting out crap out trying to negotiate in the media.

It actually sounded like nothing is on the burner close at all. He talked about "lots of things will happen in the first two weeks of the season"... presumably like injuries or goalies not living up to expectations. My bet is that barring another suitor coming into the mix we will have both goalies for a while.

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I half-agree with you. Phaneuf is not a good fit on that team. And making him captain? Crazy...but can they really take it away from him now?

I still think the answer to Lu in TO could be Phaneuf. I actually think Dion would fit in just fine here. He wouldn't be in a leadership position. We'd get back our RH point-shot that we lost with Salo, and toughen up our 2nd pairing considerably. But will TO do it? Doubt it.

As for Kessel, the thing is, he's still so young. He's been scoring so many goals for so long, that people forget he's still only 25. So although TO could expect quite a package for him, he's probably more worth holding on to - depending on 2 things:

1) He wants to re-sign in Toronto when his contract is up.

2) The Leafs will be targetting players that will help them now, rather than tanking a year or two for high picks.

If either of those are not the case, then yeah, they should deal Kessel too. he'll only help them win enough to not get top picks.

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MG was on Team 1040 and reading between the lines it sounds like any deal to Toronto is dead. He slammed them for putting out crap out trying to negotiate in the media.

It actually sounded like nothing is on the burner close at all. He talked about "lots of things will happen in the first two weeks of the season"... presumably like injuries or goalies not living up to expectations. My bet is that barring another suitor coming into the mix we will have both goalies for a while.

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That's great news for those of us who find a potential Leafs deal to be unsavory at best.

I don't blame Gillis for slamming Toronto. They are continuing to ride a ridiculous contradiction. We want Luongo, but for free... We can't afford him. We don't have the assets. They' need to go to the Food Bank, or their local Goalie Bank for hopeless NHL franchises, and get a loan.

Making Damien Cox their lead negotiator was bound to blow up in their face. Dreger appears to have toned down his conflict-of-interest-Leafs lobbying - only to see Cox attempting to fill his role. A definite downgrade.

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