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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 4.0


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#541 elvis15

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 05:59 PM

Obviously we have different timelines on Edmonton. I see them making the Chicago jump from 65pts in '05/'06 (Toews draft), 71pts in '06/'07 (Kane draft), to 88pts and barely missing the playoffs in '07/'08. I think this year's Oilers, if they can't capitalize on the shortened season, are where the '07/'08 Blackhawks were. They're missing a Keith Seabrook for sure (might Klefbom be that guy?) and they're missing a David Bolland, but they have their Duncan Keith in Justin Schultz, their Toews in RNH, their Kane in Eberle and I haven't even mentioned Hall and Yakupov.

Edmonton is a lot further along than most are projecting.

Good players on their squad for sure, just not a team as yet, at least not one good enough to compete with other NHL teams. Doesn't mean they won't get there, but it does mean I don't want to help them with a direct trade within our division. Not sure a three way deal has happened before like what it would take to move Luongo and associated assets, but that's the only option I see at this point.

Just as an example:
Van moves Luongo
Edm moves Klefbom
Tor moves Kadri

Van gets Klefbom
Edm gets Kadri
Tor gets Luongo

Doubt it works with anything more than a piece or two from each since the deal gets much too complex to figure out value otherwise. Not saying this is good value, just an example of a piece each to keep it simple.
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Tanev is going to EDM. I can put my life savings down on it

 


#542 King of the ES

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:02 PM

Add a dynamic player like Nail to the Canucks and it changes a lot of things for the next 3 years. If EDM offered Nail for Lu I'd pay for Lu's ticket to EDM on top of driving him to the airport.


You were actually being serious with the Nail Yakupov suggestion?
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#543 King of the ES

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:04 PM

Obviously we have different timelines on Edmonton. I see them making the Chicago jump from 65pts in '05/'06 (Toews draft), 71pts in '06/'07 (Kane draft), to 88pts and barely missing the playoffs in '07/'08. I think this year's Oilers, if they can't capitalize on the shortened season, are where the '07/'08 Blackhawks were. They're missing a Keith Seabrook for sure (might Klefbom be that guy?) and they're missing a David Bolland, but they have their Duncan Keith in Justin Schultz, their Toews in RNH, their Kane in Eberle and I haven't even mentioned Hall and Yakupov.

Edmonton is a lot further along than most are projecting.


I totally agree with this. I also expect Justin Schultz to step in and have an immediate impact. It would not surprise me in the least to see Edmonton win the division, and/or just make the playoffs. In addition to talent, they've also got both momentum (winning 1st overall, signing Schultz) and have actually been playing meaningful games this whole time!
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#544 King of the ES

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:06 PM

TOR
Luongo
Ballard
Raymond
Hansen
1st

VAN
Phaneuf
Kessel


One of the worst I've seen since this has started. Dave Nonis chokes on a ham sandwich while laughing.
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#545 thad

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:28 PM

I totally agree with this. I also expect Justin Schultz to step in and have an immediate impact. It would not surprise me in the least to see Edmonton win the division, and/or just make the playoffs. In addition to talent, they've also got both momentum (winning 1st overall, signing Schultz) and have actually been playing meaningful games this whole time!


I think they may have momentum going into the season and i too think schultz will make an immediate impact offensively but i still feel like they will have trouble keeping the puck out of their net. Dubnyk is the key to their season. He is going to have a quick like year for them to have success imo.

I see them missing the playoffs due to their back end
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#546 Millerdraft

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:31 PM

Good players on their squad for sure, just not a team as yet, at least not one good enough to compete with other NHL teams. Doesn't mean they won't get there, but it does mean I don't want to help them with a direct trade within our division. Not sure a three way deal has happened before like what it would take to move Luongo and associated assets, but that's the only option I see at this point.

Just as an example:
Van moves Luongo
Edm moves Klefbom
Tor moves Kadri

Van gets Klefbom
Edm gets Kadri
Tor gets Luongo

Doubt it works with anything more than a piece or two from each since the deal gets much too complex to figure out value otherwise. Not saying this is good value, just an example of a piece each to keep it simple.


First of all I thought Francis' report meant Lou to Edmonton but the bolded is exactly my point. That deal now addresses only Toronto's current roster needs, it leaves Edmonton even weaker on the back end (which everyone knows is their weakness) and gives them something they already have in Sam Gagner, and it gives Vancouver yet another left side Dman.

Three way deals typically have multple pieces for the very reason of evening out value. If your prospect pool doesn't have one of the pieces you need to land the targeted NHL, you have to fish it out of another organization. So far bluechip prospect (Kadri), impact roster player aka top-9 FWD (Bozak) & a 1st has been mentioned by various media types as the Gillis asking price. If Burke is unwilling to part with a 1st, perhaps Gillis has said he'd accept a former 1st rounder like MPS from Edmonton. It is now up to Burke to flip one of his plethora of Dmen for MPS but does he have what it takes or does he now have to add a pick so that his package ultimately costs him Bozak, Kadri, young Dman and a pick? Now Gillis has to add something to even it out.

Three way deals can get big in a hurry.
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Kassian.... Taylor Pyatt 3.0

Lies. He's more of a Steve Bernier. Hopefully his talent level goes up so he can become like a Taylor Pyatt.


#547 G-52

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:38 PM

Have no idea how credible this source is.

Jennifer Benson@wordonbaystreet

Done Deal! #Luongo & Cap Flex to #Leafs. Frattin, Bozak & 2nd Rounder to #Canucks. Expect Announcement Thursday (Following Signed CBA) #NHL



The NHL and NHLPA dont expect the agreement to be signed until saturday.. so one way or another this is wrong. Also crapty return for luongo.
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#548 elvis15

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:40 PM

I think they may have momentum going into the season and i too think schultz will make an immediate impact offensively but i still feel like they will have trouble keeping the puck out of their net. Dubnyk is the key to their season. He is going to have a quick like year for them to have success imo.

I see them missing the playoffs due to their back end

Agreed, that was their main problem last year and of the group down in OK City, Schultz was the only D-man there. It's great that they had RNH, Hall and Eberle playing (and Yakupov if he comes back from Russia considering recent rumours) but that only helps out for one part of their roster. They did have Smid playing in the Czech league too, but hardly a significant amount of their top D active prior to the season.

Edited by elvis15, 08 January 2013 - 06:51 PM.

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#549 elvis15

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:47 PM

First of all I thought Francis' report meant Lou to Edmonton but the bolded is exactly my point. That deal now addresses only Toronto's current roster needs, it leaves Edmonton even weaker on the back end (which everyone knows is their weakness) and gives them something they already have in Sam Gagner, and it gives Vancouver yet another left side Dman.

Three way deals typically have multple pieces for the very reason of evening out value. If your prospect pool doesn't have one of the pieces you need to land the targeted NHL, you have to fish it out of another organization. So far bluechip prospect (Kadri), impact roster player aka top-9 FWD (Bozak) & a 1st has been mentioned by various media types as the Gillis asking price. If Burke is unwilling to part with a 1st, perhaps Gillis has said he'd accept a former 1st rounder like MPS from Edmonton. It is now up to Burke to flip one of his plethora of Dmen for MPS but does he have what it takes or does he now have to add a pick so that his package ultimately costs him Bozak, Kadri, young Dman and a pick? Now Gillis has to add something to even it out.

Three way deals can get big in a hurry.

And that's why they're usually simple. Think the Kyle Quincy deal from last year, which was essentially a 3-way deal the way it played out.

Quincy to Detroit
Downey to Colorado
Piche and a 1st to Tampa

Minimal pieces, and when two teams (Colorado and Detroit) couldn't agree directly, they involved Tampa to get back what they wanted/needed.

Francis might have meant directly to Edmonton, but that's not very likely to be a big deal between teams in the same division.
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Tanev is going to EDM. I can put my life savings down on it

 


#550 Millerdraft

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:51 PM

And that's why they're usually simple. Think the Kyle Quincy deal from last year, which was essentially a 3-way deal the way it played out.

Quincy to Detroit
Downey to Colorado
Piche and a 1st to Tampa

Minimal pieces, and when two teams (Colorado and Detroit) couldn't agree directly, they involved Tampa to get back what they wanted/needed.

Francis might have meant directly to Edmonton, but that's not very likely to be a big deal between teams in the same division.


That three-way deal had zero perennial All-Stars involved. Value determination was simple, unlike when All-Star players are involved.

Edited by Millerdraft, 08 January 2013 - 06:52 PM.

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Kassian.... Taylor Pyatt 3.0

Lies. He's more of a Steve Bernier. Hopefully his talent level goes up so he can become like a Taylor Pyatt.


#551 elvis15

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:55 PM

That three-way deal had zero perennial All-Stars involved. Value determination was simple, unlike when All-Star players are involved.

And my opinion is it would get harder to determine value the bigger the pieces you add, so you'd have to try and keep it simple. Hockey deals are easy when your trading lower level guys, since extras and bias don't factor in as much ("he was a top draft choice", "he's been an elite goalie for years", "he's really valuable to our team"). I could be wrong, but that's my take on it, and it's why you don't see three way deals for significant players like this, unless someone wants to come up with some examples to prove me wrong.
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Tanev is going to EDM. I can put my life savings down on it

 


#552 oldnews

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 06:58 PM

How are they showing their cards?

I recall you repeatedly bashing the Vancouver media, calling them "not credible", etc. Toronto media is somehow of such greater quality?

How are they showing their cards?

I recall you repeatedly bashing the Vancouver media, calling them "not credible", etc. Toronto media is somehow of such greater quality?


Huh?
First - I don't 'bash' the Vancouver media - that's a generalization King - I love Don Taylor, John and John, Shorty... It's primarily the Province (with the exception of Kuzma) who aren't worth their salt imo.
Anyhow not sure how you possibly got the impression that I think the Toronto media is of greater quality. Never said or implied anything of the sort - in fact, I 'bash' them far more generally.
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#553 WHL rocks

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:00 PM

You were actually being serious with the Nail Yakupov suggestion?


No I don't see that happening.
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#554 Millerdraft

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:00 PM

And my opinion is it would get harder to determine value the bigger the pieces you add, so you'd have to try and keep it simple. Hockey deals are easy when your trading lower level guys, since extras and bias don't factor in as much ("he was a top draft choice", "he's been an elite goalie for years", "he's really valuable to our team"). I could be wrong, but that's my take on it, and it's why you don't see three way deals for significant players like this, unless someone wants to come up with some examples to prove me wrong.


Havlat trade to Chicago

In a three-way deal: Ottawa Senators traded Martin Havlat and Bryan Smolinski to the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks traded Tom Preissing and Josh Hennessy to the Ottawa Senators (via Chicago), Chicago Blackhawks traded Mark Bell to the San Jose Sharks and traded Michal Barinka and a 2nd round selection in 2008 to the Ottawa Senators.


...


"three-way deal that sent Kirk Muller to the Maple Leafs, Martin Straka and Bryan Berard to the New York Islanders and Wade Redden and Damian Rhodes to the Ottawa Senators on January 23, 1996"


Or, All Star for All Star for All Star

Claude Lemieux to COL
Wendel Clark to NYI
Stumpy Thomas to NJD

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1108441
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Kassian.... Taylor Pyatt 3.0

Lies. He's more of a Steve Bernier. Hopefully his talent level goes up so he can become like a Taylor Pyatt.


#555 The Bookie

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:11 PM

Frattin, Bozak and a 2nd, hey? Close .... change the pick to a 1st and I'd be satisfied.
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#556 DeNiro

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:12 PM

Change the pick to a 1st, and Frattin to Kadri, and I would be happy.
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#557 Dirt Nasty

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:19 PM

I would not be happy if that was the deal, Frattin has only 57 nhl games under his belt at 25 years old, Bozak is a UFA afrer this year and a 2nd round pick, just a terrible deal if it was true...
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#558 DeNiro

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:23 PM

That rumor is starting to spread around Leaf land. :lol:

Man I'll laugh so hard if he ends up going to the Panthers after all this.
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#559 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:30 PM

WOAH WOAH WOAH! I think i just pee'd myself. Bozak, Frattin + 2nd rounder??!? Dafuq?

She's a columnist for the Toronto Sun, apparently dating Matt Moulson. It's not inconceivable that she could have an inside source.

I'm not a fan of this deal if it is true. I wonder what the cap flex trade was? I hope we aren't retaining any cap hit on top of taking Burke's leftovers (except for Bozak).
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#560 DeNiro

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:34 PM

WOAH WOAH WOAH! I think i just pee'd myself. Bozak, Frattin + 2nd rounder??!? Dafuq?

She's a columnist for the Toronto Sun, apparently dating Matt Moulson. It's not inconceivable that she could have an inside source.

I'm not a fan of this deal if it is true. I wonder what the cap flex trade was? I hope we aren't retaining any cap hit on top of taking Burke's leftovers (except for Bozak).


First of all, this Jennifer Benson character doesn't even work for the Toronto Sun.

She claims to be a columnist, but isn't listed anywhere on their website.

Furthermore, she claims to be Matt Moulson's "baby mama", which really adds more credibility to her.

And the most hilarious part is that she thinks this would be a bad deal for the Leafs...No credibility whatsoever, just somebody trying to troll.

Edited by DeNiro, 08 January 2013 - 07:35 PM.

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#561 nzan

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:36 PM

WOAH WOAH WOAH! I think i just pee'd myself. Bozak, Frattin + 2nd rounder??!? Dafuq?

She's a columnist for the Toronto Sun, apparently dating Matt Moulson. It's not inconceivable that she could have an inside source.

I'm not a fan of this deal if it is true. I wonder what the cap flex trade was? I hope we aren't retaining any cap hit on top of taking Burke's leftovers (except for Bozak).


None of it's true. Troll's probably not even a girl. And Gillis isn't that dumb.
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#562 DeNiro

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:38 PM

Bozak is a UFA after this season.

Frattin is 25 years old and hasn't cracked the NHL full time yet.

A 2nd round pick doesn't guarantee much.

And on top of that, we're going to give the Leafs cap flexibility? Yea, okay.
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#563 Ossi Vaananen

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:38 PM

First of all, this Jennifer Benson character doesn't even work for the Toronto Sun.

She claims to be a columnist, but isn't listed anywhere on their website.

Furthermore, she claims to be Matt Moulson's "baby mama", which really adds more credibility to her.

And the most hilarious part is that she thinks this would be a bad deal for the Leafs...No credibility whatsoever, just somebody trying to troll.


Ya, I just did more research. Totally fake, I checked out Toronto Sun, LinkedIN, even did the creepy thing and used pipl. She's fake and so is the nonsense tweet.
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#564 nzan

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:39 PM

First of all, this Jennifer Benson character doesn't even work for the Toronto Sun.

She claims to be a columnist, but isn't listed anywhere on their website.

Furthermore, she claims to be Matt Moulson's "baby mama", which really adds more credibility to her.

And the most hilarious part is that she thinks this would be a bad deal for the Leafs...No credibility whatsoever, just somebody trying to troll.


...and every deal for Luongo is going to be a bad deal because the Leafs shouldn't have to pay anything for doing us the huge favour of taking Luongo off of our hands! How Botchford and others have misrepresented Bozak as anything other than a spare part is beyond me.

Edited by nzan, 08 January 2013 - 07:45 PM.

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#565 oldnews

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:49 PM

I just read that Lou is again working with Francois Allaire, his old goalie coach. That in itself says something about his tenure with the Canucks. Melanson is the Canuck Goaltender coach, the same coach that helped get LOu's GAA down to a great 2.11 in 2010-11. Last season, Lou reverted back, for the most part, to the Allaire method and saw his average climb almost 1/3 goal per game to 2.41. Lou is obviously more comfortable with that style but, its less effective for him. I think theres a sign here , that he will not be a Canuck, or he would be , should be, working with Melanson. Unless Allaire has some new tricks for Lou, I certainly don;t see him improving over last season. The hybid system works better, is less predictable and proven more effective for him. Why would he not continue to use it? Very strange, unfanthomable actually and defies logic.


I'm interested in the technicality of goaltending (I'm no expert) - but I agree Smurf. The hybrid style makes much more sense than the overly aggressive, out of position, wide open net on backside passes and rebounds as Luo lays on the ice version of Luongo. I thought the compromise - him coming out and challenging on the rush, but staying deeper when the other team has possession in the zone was working much better for him - and was far less frustrating. Abandoning the hybrid just makes him uneasy to watch. If he reverted to more discipline and actually tightened up the hybrid, I might actually like the idea of a tandem as much as moving him, but if that's not the case... (Well, in either case, I'm very comfortable with taking our chances with Schneids).


What if Toronto makes the playoffs? What then?


Ok there. Settle down. Take a deep breath and get a hold of yourself.

With all the names coming back from Toronto in the Luongo deal, what are the chances of us getting Grabovski??

He fits our need and when Kesler gets back, he can either switch to a winger or 3rd line centre.

He makes 5.5m just alittle more than Luongo and we could possibly throw in Raymond in there aswell.


The one Leaf that I might consider a one for one deal for. Imo their best player, by a longshot. Would take him anyday over Phaneuf or Kessel.

Frattin, Bozak and a 2nd, hey? Close .... change the pick to a 1st and I'd be satisfied.


I'm not as critical of this proposal as some, but I'd say the Burke's failed attempt to push "the Luongo clause" ought to cost him a penalty piece:
Frattin, Bozak, a 1st, and Franson's rights (he ain't coming back to the Laffs anyhow)...
I think Frattin will turn out to be a better fit than a guy like Kadri - I like his finish, he's grittier and just seems to have more intent to his game. Part of a deal could include a precursor that Bozak agrees to reasonable terms, I want a 1st for sure (a guaranteed high pick lol), and the rights to the big depth defenseman.
The problem with the Leafs option is that aside from Biggs or their little finesse blueliners, there aren't many other options.

Edited by oldnews, 08 January 2013 - 07:53 PM.

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#566 70seven

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:51 PM

I really like Matt Frattin. Hes got real good wheels, a good shot, and had 81 hits in 56 games with the buds last year. Hes like Raymond with b@lls and a nose for the net. Just cause hes 25 doesnt mean hes washed up... He didnt break out untill his 4th year of colledge with 36 goals, 60 points in only 44 games, and last season was his very 1st pro season, in which he had 14 goals in 23 games with the Marlies before getting called up to the big league. The majority of players dont have good numbers in their first taste of the NHL... THeres a learning curve, and it can take time for alot of players to adapt, just like the majority of our core.... How old was Burrows before cracking the Nux lineup??


Leafs fans are not happy with this rumor.
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#567 250Integra

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:52 PM

If that is indeed the deal, is Frattin any good?

I don't know much about him if someone can inform me!
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#568 DeNiro

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:53 PM

Their reasoning was that Frattin was a scratch in the Marlies game...Guess what? So were alot of prospects around the AHL.

They obviously just pieced that together with the rumor of Bozak that was already out there to try and sound credible.
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#569 thad

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:54 PM

I hope miss bensen has a disgruntled ex boyfriend that happens to be a canuck fan and also happens to have compromising photos on his iphone
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#570 Trebreh

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 07:56 PM

I dont like that deal because theres no center piece to it. If the 2nd is turned into 1st, It would be a good deal.

Frattin reminds me of Hansen, a very hard worker, fast and doest take a shift off. He is instantly a lock on the 4th line if we get him.

Bozak eliminates Malhotra from our lineup.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Raymond - Kesler - Booth
Higgins - Bozak - Hansen
Frattin - Lappiere - Kassian
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