[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 4.0

[oldnews]

IMO this clause hinders the trade quite a bit and will come back to screw the Canucks in the future.

[Lui's Knob]

If the new contract rules are in place maybe it's Schneider that gets dealt for blue chip prospects? Why trade Lui if in 5 years he retires and the Canucks are cap punished?

[oldnews]

I highly doubt they buy out a 9yr contract unless the owner bleeds more orange and black than any flyers fan in Philly.

I agree they could be interested though if they could find a taker for the guy that's a bigger headcase than luongo. Holmgren always seems itchy to make a move too and seems to make a trade for even the slightest improvement. I could definitely see him working the phones tossing bryz name around as well as talkin to gillis.

IMO trades you suggest would be a little much though. Couturier and Voracek are 2 really good young players, might get a deal centered around 1 of them.

[shazzam]

If the new contract rules are in place maybe it's Schneider that gets dealt for blue chip prospects? Why trade Lui if in 5 years he retires and the Canucks are cap punished?

[ccc44]

Another article from CBC's Friedmen

http://www.cbc.ca/sp...rto-luongo.html

Since the various reports of a Roberto Luongo trade to Toronto aren't already insane enough...let's throw some gasoline on the fire!

One of the intricacies of the new yet-to-be-ratified CBA is the "cap-recapture system." Basically, this affects players with long-term deals (minimum five or six years, I'm not 100 per cent certain).

Either way, Luongo's counts because his is a 12-year deal. Therefore, there will be a penalty if he retires before the contract is completed.

How does it work?

The simplest way to explain it is this: Let's assume the Canucks and Maple Leafs make the deal. Vancouver would be responsible for the "cap benefit" that it received in the first two years. Toronto would be responsible for any remaining "cap benefit" it gets as a result of contract structure if he walks away early.

Here's the math. Luongo salary:

2010-11: $10 million US

2011-12: $6,716,000

That's a total of $16,716,000.

Luongo's cap hit is $5,333,333. You multiply it by how many years he spent with the Canucks, so, in this case, that figure is doubled. That's $10,666,666.

What was the cap benefit to Vancouver? You take the actual salaries paid ($16,716,000) and subtract the total amount of cap space the Canucks used ($10,666,666). The answer is $6,049,334.

That is the "cap benefit" Vancouver received in the first two years of Luongo's contract. The key -- and the thing I had to check -- is that this number has zero immediate effect on the Canucks' cap situation. It is basically "frozen" and does not become an issue unless he retires before his contract is up.

So let's say he happily goes to Toronto (and really, who wouldn't happily go there?), spending seven seasons there before saying, "I've had enough" in the summer of 2019.

Actual cash numbers

Here are his actual cash numbers for those years:

2012-13 through 2017-18: $6,714,000

2018-19: $3,382,000

He would then walk away from three years at a combined $3,618,000. And, it's time for the penalties.

Vancouver's "frozen" $6,049,334 thaws. It is divided by the number of "unused" years in Luongo's contract -- three. The figure is $2,016,445. The Canucks will get a "cap penalty" at that amount for the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.

As for Toronto, the Maple Leafs will pay Luongo $43,666,000. (I'm not pro-rating this year's lockout-infected salary. Going for the easy math here). The total cap hit for those seven seasons is $37,333,331. The difference is $6,332,669. Divide it by the three unused years in Luongo's contract, and the penalty per season is $2,111,890 -- slightly larger than Vancouver's.

I wasn't really tuned into the outside world today, but heard people were wondering if it made more sense for Vancouver to buy out Luongo. These figures make it seem non-sensical. First of all, with the opt-out clauses attached to the length of the new CBA, there's no guarantee the rules will be the same by the time the penalties are scheduled to take effect.

Second, there may just be a loophole. From what I understand, Long-Term Injury Reserve still exists. (For example, it allows Chris Pronger to come off the Philadelphia cap while he recovers from concussions).

God forbid Luongo (or anyone else) goes through that. But he will be 40 in the summer of 2019. Who knows what happens to a goalie's body by then? Maybe he's had enough and is battling some nagging groin or hip or knee problem. He goes on LTIR, still gets paid and neither Toronto nor Vancouver gets any kind of penalty.

Could work.

[oldnews]

If the new contract rules are in place maybe it's Schneider that gets dealt for blue chip prospects? Why trade Lui if in 5 years he retires and the Canucks are cap punished?

[zombieksa]

I love the idea of Lu going to Philly as he goes from a team that hates Boston and Chicago to a team that hates Boston and Chicago

[Tangelos]

Luongo is going to Florida for 4 reasons:

1) He wants to go there.

2) Florida has better trade assets than Toronto (Weiss > Bozak)

3) Florida wants him, and Dale Tallon isn't afraid to make a big move.

4) Canucks and Panthers have been great trading partners for more than a decade.

[oldnews]

Luongo wouldn't get you Couturier alone.

[Gollumpus]

I don't see it that way. The penalites are spread out over the remaining years on contracts. That's not that much money really - and what kind of appreciation will we see by the year 2020 for example.

The two buyouts also give more teams the option of shedding contracts and creating cap space.

I think the implications are pretty good for Vancouver and Luongo.

[Gollumpus]

Anyway, part of me is simply baiting King , waiting for the "ARE YOU KIDDING ME? LUONGO for Couturier and more? You're nuts!!!"

[Tangelos]

We'll be getting more than LaFlamme Doug.

[Canucks_Hockey_101]

A top 2 D man 'is not enough'

[oldnews]

Luongo is going to Florida for 4 reasons:

1) He wants to go there.

2) Florida has better trade assets than Toronto (Weiss > Bozak)

3) Florida wants him, and Dale Tallon isn't afraid to make a big move.

4) Canucks and Panthers have been great trading partners for more than a decade.

[oldnews]

Yes it is. I would love to see Seabrook for Schneider. That's an excellent trade.

[oldnews]

Well, we've been prattling in this thread throughout the whole GD lockout.

Now, Holy S#!t!, something is actually possible!

[Tangelos]

Luongo said all the right things in his interview, but I got the sense nevertheless that he wasn't particularly thrilled with the idea of going to TO.

I hope you're right (and have thought Florida is most likely all along). I'd like to see him go where he wants (although he didn't say as much, I'd bet he's pining to go back to Florida).

And as you say, Florida has a lot of young talent at center and on the blueline.

Toronto media is starting to sound a little antzy about getting a deal for Luongo done quickly lol. I'd love to see Tallon (or Holmgren) swoop in and get it done.

Also - you'll have to change your 2018/19 Florida Panthers...

[Canucks_Hockey_101]

The cap penalty is a huge blow to Luongo's value.

Plus, we are already 6 mill in the hole in the future. Luongo is not going to play out his entire contract.

[thad]

You may be right - I'm considering Luongo's value to be slightly less than Richards and Carter, who have similar contracts, and younger, but are also skaters - ie not as likely to play them out. I don't consider skaters to be more valuable than goaltenders, but the reality is that's the trend.

If anyone can afford to buyout a contract like Bryz's, I'd guess that Ed Snider would be a candidate. Holmgren has been extremely aggressive, particularly in pursuing Weber. I think including Edler could really be irresistable to Holmgren.

I wouldn't expect to land both Couturier and Vorachek for Luongo alone, but Luo and a pick would be my starting point. Might have to up that asset or substitute Read for Vorachek, but if you look at Philly at RW, they have a ridiculous amount of talent to work and deal with. And Holmgren set the value this high in the deals he cut last offseason. Anyway, part of me is simply baiting King , waiting for the "ARE YOU KIDDING ME? LUONGO for Couturier and more? You're nuts!!!"

[Pears]

Yes it is. I would love to see Seabrook for Schneider. That's an excellent trade.