We shall see. We have had an extended building boom in Vancouver (and especially one in Toronto) and many, many units are held by speculators.
I suspect condos will go down more than townhouse which will go down more than single family homes. But the prices are still far, faaaaaaaaaaaaar out of reach for people. And until that equalizes the housing market is very much a house of cards that could blow up in a slight breeze. Look how much things slowed just by the feds reducing the cheap money supply by limiting CMHC loans to 25 years and a maximum of 1 million dollars.
Let's see what happens if....
The federal government doesn't raise the (soon to be hit) CMHC lending limit and suddenly everyone needs 20% down to buy a place instead of the 5% (and formally 5% cash back) that helped prime the bubble up....
The US goes into a triple dip recession and that US sneeze turns into a Canadian flu.....
Interest rates rise on mortgages. FYI you don't need the bank of Canada to raise interest rates for that to happen.
And if all else fails......
Demographics, the elephant in the room, will eventually kick in, requiring more taxes just to maintain the same level of service. You know, the economic brake that is still biting Japan 20 years later?
Hmm...I actually disagree with you on what sectors will drop. Condos will hold their value. There are plenty of young peolpe willing to buy a condo for the 250-400k range, which is what most single bedroom and studio units in Vancouver proper go for. You might see a 5-10% in the 400k+ condos.
I think the big drop will come from the detached homes. I'm talking about the crack shacks selling for 1.5 million. Those will probably drop about 20% or more. You have the added pressure of baby boomers retiring and downgrading homes and moving into condos.
Like I said before, I think you might be looking at an overall drop in the 10% range. This is fairly supported by recent pricing trends as well:
You can see that apartments (ie condo) prices have been relatviely stable since about 2007 or so. Hovering around that 400k price point. Meanwhile detached homes have risen, inexplicably, from 800k to 1.2 mil and no back down to just over 1 mil. I think what will see is things gradually creep back to the 2006/7 price range.
It really makes no sense for the price of a detached home to have risen so much since 2006. With condo sales, the product has gotten a lot better of the last 10 years. Things built prior to 2005 really had bad finishings and appliances, were leaky, etc.. Newer stuff is of much improved quality and you should expect it to sell for more.
Meanwhile, new detached homes are not being built on a large scale. Every year that passes results in a "Vancouver special" just getting on year older.