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[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 5.0


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#1891 Teemu Selänne

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:11 PM

Unless they altered the rule in the new CBA, all trades require a tangible asset going back both ways even if it is just a conditional 7th. Salary could be retained from a player moved but there must be a piece on the other side of the ledger as well.


Well sure then, but the idea is the same..

To FLA: 800,000 per year of salary & a 7th round pick

To PHX: Upshall, a cond. 4th & a 7th.
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#1892 sampy

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:14 PM

Something to chew on for you.

If Calgary continues to be out of the playoff running come the trade deadline, they've got that Miikka Kiprusoff guy who's got 1 year left on his deal with a cap hit of $5.3M but a cash outlay of $1.5M. Think teams like Florida, NYI, etc., would be interested in that? Probably a little more than a guy who's signed until 2022, no?

Then there's Detroit, who's not looking like a very strong team. Jimmy Howard is a UFA. He's popular in Detroit, and they might be crafty enough an organization to flip him at the deadline for something, and then go on to re-sign him in July.

Then there's Buffalo, who's got Ryan Miller with one year left on his deal. Same deal in Anaheim with J. Hiller.

Then there are the following UFA's: Backstrom, Khabibulin, and Mike Smith.

Finally, there's John Bernier still hanging around LA, and Ben Bishop/Robin Lehner hanging around Ottawa, who would probably all be a more ideal fit for one of the teams that are in the early stages of a significant rebuild (CBJ, NYI) than a guy like Bobby Lou.

Point? Gillis, by standing pat, is running the risk that some/all of these goaltenders become actively in play around the deadline. And what happens to the price of something if there's a sudden influx of people wanting to sell? Right - it drops.


That's true, MG risks getting even less in the summer. But according to you the Nucks would be lucky to get a bag of pucks for Lu so if that's the case I'd rather keep Lu and get the bag of pucks in the summer.
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#1893 MJDDawg

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:16 PM

Other than his slow starts I don't think Lou has ever taken a lot of flack in Van. Most 2nd half seasons he was in the top 3 NHL goalies. Comparing the two goalies I simply like Schneider's style more than Lou's. Over the long run his game should stand up better than Lou's. I could be 100% wrong as well.

My over riding thought with a Lou trade is what Van get's back. MG has repeatedly said a top 6, a prospect and a pic. It is a hard deal to put together as different teams don't always rank their players with the same value to their different orgs. As much as I want value in a Lou deal the term of his contract is a negative. If Gillis waits until Kesler and Booth are back and then re-evaluates his team the Canucks could be pushing the trade deadline. It could very well happen.

The beauty of sport is that there will always be winners and losers. The losers will always try to become winners. That is where Lou will come in!


I agree.

But I'm starting to think that if Gillis cannot find a trading partner for Lui who's willing to provide what he wants, then he will not give Lui away, and in fact if he can't get back a stud prospect and high pick to replenish our thin prospect pool then maybe, just maybe, he looks at Schneids as the asset to move in order to accomplish his goal.

It becomes an opportunity cost analysis. The team has obviously decided that Schneider is/will be the better goaltender. But if the reality is/becomes that Gillis can't get some team to cough up high quality prospects/picks for Lui, is the perceived difference between Lui and Schneider large enough that it's worth giving up what they could get for Schneider on the open market?

If, as Gillis has stated, he will do what's best for the team now and going forward, then the possibility of Schneider being the one moved has to be considered does it not?

Edited by MJDDawg, 06 February 2013 - 03:42 PM.

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#1894 Vansicle

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:18 PM

Something to chew on for you.

If Calgary continues to be out of the playoff running come the trade deadline, they've got that Miikka Kiprusoff guy who's got 1 year left on his deal with a cap hit of $5.3M but a cash outlay of $1.5M. Think teams like Florida, NYI, etc., would be interested in that? Probably a little more than a guy who's signed until 2022, no?

Then there's Detroit, who's not looking like a very strong team. Jimmy Howard is a UFA. He's popular in Detroit, and they might be crafty enough an organization to flip him at the deadline for something, and then go on to re-sign him in July.

Then there's Buffalo, who's got Ryan Miller with one year left on his deal. Same deal in Anaheim with J. Hiller.

Then there are the following UFA's: Backstrom, Khabibulin, and Mike Smith.

Finally, there's John Bernier still hanging around LA, and Ben Bishop/Robin Lehner hanging around Ottawa, who would probably all be a more ideal fit for one of the teams that are in the early stages of a significant rebuild (CBJ, NYI) than a guy like Bobby Lou.

Point? Gillis, by standing pat, is running the risk that some/all of these goaltenders become actively in play around the deadline. And what happens to the price of something if there's a sudden influx of people wanting to sell? Right - it drops.

I just don't think it's as urgent as you're making it out to be.
AV and MG have both said they would ice the players that give them the best chance to win. That doesn't mean win that night. That means win today and tomorrow. In order to do that, they need the league to remember how good Lou is. The further away from the LA series the better in terms of return. The more Lou keeps winning, the more potential trade partners are going to realize that he is better than their current best, the more willing they will be to part with so called "untouchable" players.
It just never makes any sense to unload an asset in haste. Especially when showcasing that asset adds to its long term value.
If his trade value is aas low as some are saying, there is no harm in waiting, as the return just isn't going to be that much better even if you maximize your return. I happen to think the piece that's going to come back will be shockingly good.
Now, I could be wrong. But I'm pretty sure I'm not.
This is coming from someone who has wanted Lou gone for years.
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Snake Doctor, on 23 May 2014 - 10:41 AM, said:snapback.png

Miller is not on our list. It's Lack as our #1. There is no reason we would have traded both Schnieder and Luongo if we never intended to give Lack the #1 starting job.  Furthermore, the salary and term Miller is looking for is not in our favor.

 


#1895 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:22 PM

The more Lou keeps winning, the more potential trade partners are going to realize that he is better than their current best, the more willing they will be to part with so called "untouchable" players.


Is Lu better than Mike Smith?

Why would a team like Toronto be interested in giving up a package like Bozak & Kadri, when they could instead sign Mike Smith at only a cost of money (not assets) in July?
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#1896 oldnews

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:31 PM

Is Lu better than Mike Smith?

Why would a team like Toronto be interested in giving up a package like Bozak & Kadri, when they could instead sign Mike Smith at only a cost of money (not assets) in July?


Something to remember - what UFA goalies have lined up to play in Toronto? Having a hard time remembering the last decent tender to agree to go there...
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#1897 Ray Canuck

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:33 PM

Realistically i believe Luongo will end up here until the trade deadline, he's being very well showcased just like Hodgson had been prior to last years deadline. I believe Gillis has put out specific packages to 5-6 teams and will hope that one of those teams meets that price, just like he put out 7 players that he would trade for Hodgson prior to having him traded.

I believe the asking price is a prospect, current impact top 6 forward and a first round pick. its a very steep price and thats why a deal hasn't been done to date. Florida, Toronto, Washington, NYI, and Columbus are the teams in the mix.

This is what I believe each team would need to give up. Not listing the first round pick as its equal to all teams:

Florida - Weiss and Bjugstad
Toronto - JVR and Kadri
Columbus - Dubinsky and Boone
Washington - Laich and Khusnetsov
NYI - Okposo and Strome

Huge price tag for each team. The most likely in my opinion are the Islanders....but only after they decide to buyout Dipietro. This decision can be made by the deadline with official buyout in the summer.


None of those suggestions seem realistic to me!
My thinking is if we get a good top 6 forward then the prospect will not be a blue chip.
Personally I'd go for a couple of blue chip prospects or one blue chip & potential top 14 lottery pick.
Of course some bum with a huge cap will want to be off loaded on us but if that is what needs to be done I'd go for it and buy them out if need be.

I think Lou has 5 good years left in him, what are the new CBA rules on a player retiring with a contract like Lou's?
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#1898 oldnews

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:34 PM

I just don't think it's as urgent as you're making it out to be.
AV and MG have both said they would ice the players that give them the best chance to win. That doesn't mean win that night. That means win today and tomorrow. In order to do that, they need the league to remember how good Lou is. The further away from the LA series the better in terms of return. The more Lou keeps winning, the more potential trade partners are going to realize that he is better than their current best, the more willing they will be to part with so called "untouchable" players.
It just never makes any sense to unload an asset in haste. Especially when showcasing that asset adds to its long term value.
If his trade value is aas low as some are saying, there is no harm in waiting, as the return just isn't going to be that much better even if you maximize your return. I happen to think the piece that's going to come back will be shockingly good.
Now, I could be wrong. But I'm pretty sure I'm not.
This is coming from someone who has wanted Lou gone for years.


Agree with you Vansicle - if the offers are lowballs, what is the real risk of losing a lowball offer? On the other hand, a tandem is more valuable than spare parts. If it's a matter of dumping cap space there is no urgency to do so. MG isn't unaware of the time lines involved, which is why I think you're correct to point these things out - and I also beleive the return won't be a bad as some people fear. I for one won't be lamenting regardless - the Canucks have the problem of abundance right now.
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#1899 frazzY

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:40 PM

Exactly! But so many people have a love affair w Lou they don't want to accept or understand that.


Lou isnt that old,, look at brodeur, hes still got it... We could still get another 7-8 years out of Lu
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#1900 oldnews

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:47 PM

The tandem has done nothing but pay off thus far for the Canucks.
Knowing that the team has the option of playing the hotter of Luo and Schneids is pretty damn good winnng percentage potential.

For the goaltenders it's not merely downside either. Schneider has been able to develop knowing that Luongo is there - there is a plus side to developing behind Luongo - it's not simply that case of being held back. An opening night struggle like the Canucks faced and yet the pressure was not there for Schnneider to play through it. He had a few days to recompose and looked much better since. Neither goalie has had to play through a difficult stretch for some time now.
Luongo has actually started to look as if Cory is rubbing off on him - he's calmer, more composed, more efficient in his movement, playing deeper in his net...
I don't think the shelf life has expired quite yet.
Gillis and AV are still maximizing value - and imo were correct to wait this out - there will be a point at which it no longer makes any sense to hold out, but I think they'll identify that and do what needs to be done at that point, but thus far, there has simply been no reason to make haste.

Edited by oldnews, 06 February 2013 - 03:51 PM.

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#1901 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:49 PM

Something to remember - what UFA goalies have lined up to play in Toronto? Having a hard time remembering the last decent tender to agree to go there...


Gustavsson? He was pretty highly sought-after at the time.

Anyway, I don't think it'd be a very tough sell. Smith's from Kingston. Toronto will spend to the cap. They've got a fair amount of good young players. Original 6 franchise.
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#1902 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:50 PM

Lou isnt that old,, look at brodeur, hes still got it... We could still get another 7-8 years out of Lu


Brodeur is a generational talent.

That's like saying that since Lidstrom played until he was 40, surely Hamhuis can as well without missing a beat.
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#1903 oldnews

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:54 PM

Gustavsson? He was pretty highly sought-after at the time.

Anyway, I don't think it'd be a very tough sell. Smith's from Kingston. Toronto will spend to the cap. They've got a fair amount of good young players. Original 6 franchise.


The guy who had never played an NHL game, and whose rights they chose to dump for a 7th round pick? Sorry, I didn't think of him.
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#1904 thad

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:06 PM

The guy who had never played an NHL game, and whose rights they chose to dump for a 7th round pick? Sorry, I didn't think of him.


Lol that's what I was thinking when he replied.. Can't remember who said it but the grasping at straws analogy makes more sense every day.

Coming back with Gustafson actually argues against his opinion of what about all these other goalies? That is exactly why they would want an elite goalie signed long term. Unless they are happy with the revolving door of goalie going in, casket coming out?
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#1905 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:12 PM

Lol that's what I was thinking when he replied.. Can't remember who said it but the grasping at straws analogy makes more sense every day.

Coming back with Gustafson actually argues against his opinion of what about all these other goalies? That is exactly why they would want an elite goalie signed long term. Unless they are happy with the revolving door of goalie going in, casket coming out?


Gustavsson was highly thought-of at the time, that is a fact. He was supposedly dominating some sort of league in Sweden. He hasn't worked out. What's funny about this sort of discussion is that if the Canucks go on to sign this big guy from Yale, he'll be projected to be the next Lucic on these boards.

And what other goalies are there? Who have been the major UFA goaltenders of recent history that have passed on the Maple Leafs? Speaking of straw men...
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#1906 thad

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:26 PM

Gustavsson was highly thought-of at the time, that is a fact. He was supposedly dominating some sort of league in Sweden. He hasn't worked out. What's funny about this sort of discussion is that if the Canucks go on to sign this big guy from Yale, he'll be projected to be the next Lucic on these boards.

And what other goalies are there? Who have been the major UFA goaltenders of recent history that have passed on the Maple Leafs? Speaking of straw men...


We discuss these college and euro players and their potential of what they MIGHT be all the time. We don't count on them being the answer to our biggest problem.

A highly sought after late blooming prospect trying to get his chance in the NHL is going to have different priorities than a highly sought after UFA established NHL starter.

Justin Shultz would have had a shot at the cup with Vancouver but he chose Edmonton, I wonder why?




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#1907 Dragonfruits

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:30 PM

Gustavsson was highly thought-of at the time, that is a fact. He was supposedly dominating some sort of league in Sweden. He hasn't worked out. What's funny about this sort of discussion is that if the Canucks go on to sign this big guy from Yale, he'll be projected to be the next Lucic on these boards.

And what other goalies are there? Who have been the major UFA goaltenders of recent history that have passed on the Maple Leafs? Speaking of straw men...


http://www.mynhltrad...-agents/#Goalie

leafs signed giguere

could of signed

vokoun
bryzgalov
anderson
smith
elliot
howard
theodore

all solid goalies that they could of went with for a veteran presence and they go with old man giguere
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#1908 RockNroLLa.

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:36 PM

In which case the Canucks would have a 1.167 burden with the salary cap going down.. until 2017.

Or a 3.5 burden until 2015 if they decided to keep him.

Not good cap management.

GMMG referred to this earlier anyway, stating he didn't want a player he'd have to turn around and buy out.

Edit: And no, you don't know if the Canucks have to, in order to make a deal with FLA.


Wouldnt it fall under amnesty buyout?

Also wouldnt the total cost only be about $4.7 mil? Perhaps the issue would be to bring him into the locker room after what went on between him and Kes. This could also be where the "good guy" comment came from by GMMG.
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#1909 The Bookie

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:40 PM

Anyway, I don't think it'd be a very tough sell. Smith's from Kingston. Toronto will spend to the cap. They've got a fair amount of good young players. Original 6 franchise.


You think that people who grew up in/around TO want to go back there to play? That's hilarious.
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#1910 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:47 PM

Remember when GMMG said there was a potential deal in place but that he didn't want to have to turn around and buy out a player?

I don't know if that was the order, but he's said both of those things.

Maybe it's contingent on FLA being able to find a place to dump Upshall.. for example PHX where they have cap space, and he's had success before. Also, with the new 'Burke' rule they don't need to trade ALL of the salary, so for instance:

To PHX: Scottie Upshall, cond. 4th round pick 2013
To FLA: $800,000 per year of the contract

PHX gets a free pick, but takes an overpaid player who may or may not be able to play the 3rd line there and then, all of the sudden FLA can make a move with VAN.

Cap dumps happen (see:Ehrhoff to Van, Lombardi from Toronto)

Anyway, there was a rumour that FLA couldn't afford Weiss, but Tallon has said "why would I move him? i'm trying to sign him". So, who really knows?


Yeah perhaps, that comment could mean anything really.

All I know if FLA is going to have to give us salary or dump salary somehow if they are going to be able to pull off a deal with us.
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#1911 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:54 PM

And then we're left with another potential goalie controversy, in Schneider v. Dubnyk. Great idea.


That deal is terrible.

And there wouldn't be, Dubnyk isn't as good as Cory, it wouldn't be 1 vs 1A it would be 1 & 2.

Something to chew on for you.

If Calgary continues to be out of the playoff running come the trade deadline, they've got that Miikka Kiprusoff guy who's got 1 year left on his deal with a cap hit of $5.3M but a cash outlay of $1.5M. Think teams like Florida, NYI, etc., would be interested in that? Probably a little more than a guy who's signed until 2022, no?

Then there's Detroit, who's not looking like a very strong team. Jimmy Howard is a UFA. He's popular in Detroit, and they might be crafty enough an organization to flip him at the deadline for something, and then go on to re-sign him in July.

Then there's Buffalo, who's got Ryan Miller with one year left on his deal. Same deal in Anaheim with J. Hiller.

Then there are the following UFA's: Backstrom, Khabibulin, and Mike Smith.

Finally, there's John Bernier still hanging around LA, and Ben Bishop/Robin Lehner hanging around Ottawa, who would probably all be a more ideal fit for one of the teams that are in the early stages of a significant rebuild (CBJ, NYI) than a guy like Bobby Lou.

Point? Gillis, by standing pat, is running the risk that some/all of these goaltenders become actively in play around the deadline. And what happens to the price of something if there's a sudden influx of people wanting to sell? Right - it drops.


He's not going anywhere, Calgary's GM is beyond stupid, he will keep him and Kipper will retire a Flame. They aren't going to re-build.

& If you think, Smith, Miller or Howard will be made available then think again. Backstrom is also unlikely and those young guys aren't an upgrade on what teams currently have.
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#1912 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:00 PM

Is Lu better than Mike Smith?

Why would a team like Toronto be interested in giving up a package like Bozak & Kadri, when they could instead sign Mike Smith at only a cost of money (not assets) in July?


Why would Phoenix let Mike Smith go?

Even if they did, why would he go to Toronto? He would probably much rather go to a good team.

Gustavsson? He was pretty highly sought-after at the time.

Anyway, I don't think it'd be a very tough sell. Smith's from Kingston. Toronto will spend to the cap. They've got a fair amount of good young players. Original 6 franchise.


So was Fabian Brunnstrom, I guess Dallas is great at picking up highly sought after UFA forwards, just like Toronto is at picking up highly sought after UFA goalies.

If that's the case, then why wasn't Dallas able to re-sign Richards?
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#1913 frazzY

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:15 PM

Is Lu better than Mike Smith?

Why would a team like Toronto be interested in giving up a package like Bozak & Kadri, when they could instead sign Mike Smith at only a cost of money (not assets) in July?


LOL LU is MILES BETTER than Mike Smith, the guy had one good season... Lu is consistently a winner. Did u see his numbers when he first got here and in Florida?? Forget the team infront, Lu is Elite! Always has been always will be.

If he gets dealt it will come back to haunt us, it will be the biggest mistake in Canucks history, trumping the Neely deal.

Edited by frazzY, 06 February 2013 - 05:17 PM.

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#1914 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:17 PM

You think that people who grew up in/around TO want to go back there to play? That's hilarious.


Why?
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#1915 RockNroLLa.

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:20 PM

LOL LU is MILES BETTER than Mike Smith, the guy had one good season... Lu is consistently a winner. Did u see his numbers when he first got here and in Florida?? Forget the team infront, Lu is Elite! Always has been always will be.

If he gets dealt it will come back to haunt us, it will be the biggest mistake in Canucks history, trumping the Neely deal.


:picard:
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#1916 BuretoMogilny

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:22 PM

Lou isnt that old,, look at brodeur, hes still got it...  We could still get another 7-8 years out of Lu


4-5 for sure, but then its a crap shoot.You also have no proven young goalie, Lack hasn't even played an NHL game yetAnd you get youth in return for Lou. On every level it makes more sense to move Lou. BUT you must get a young offensive prospect back. This seems to be the issue...Its now a game of chicken and I have to think Washington is going to blink soon.
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#1917 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:23 PM

& If you think, Smith, Miller or Howard will be made available then think again. Backstrom is also unlikely and those young guys aren't an upgrade on what teams currently have.


"Think again" - why wouldn't they be? Smith is a UFA in July anyway, so he'd be the definition of a rental. If Buffalo and/or Detroit are out of the playoffs and/or otherwise just not looking too strong, I could definitely see a move being made. Again, why wouldn't they?
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#1918 King of the ES

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:27 PM

Why would Phoenix let Mike Smith go?

Even if they did, why would he go to Toronto? He would probably much rather go to a good team.


They haven't signed him yet. What's the holdup? Right - they're probably not willing to pay him what he wants.

Why Toronto? They (probably) need a goalie, and they're better than the other teams that need a goalie (CBJ, NYI, etc.).
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#1919 frazzY

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:29 PM

:picard:


Thanks for your insight, teams around the league probably laugh at us for trying to run our franchise goalie out of town. Lu's hardest critics are in his own "fan base." You don't know what you've got til its gone. Mark my words it will be a huge mistake if he gets dealt, not to mention we are ready to win NOW and Schneider would fetch a better return.
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#1920 Boudrias

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:29 PM

Another Lou scenario would be that Kesler and Booth come back and Van gets a 2nd line that consistantly scores. It takes the top 6 pressure off MG's immediate needs. A producing 2nd line is practically the last weakness in this roster. One could quibble about the 3C as well but Schroeder as earned a decent shot at sticking. If it were to play out this way MG might very well wait until the trade deadline or even thru until summer. It might not make either goalie very happy but a CUP would be a nice bonus!

After a 48 game schedule and the possibility of buying out two contracts there might be a better market come summer. I have stood by my next week trade prediction of Lou for 5 weeks now so I will ride that thru.
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