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My Logical Theory on the Future of Our Goaltending


Hectic

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100% agreed except for the bolded part.

SV% .897

GAA 3.13

It's unfortunate and this happens all too often, goalies looking for starting position playing lights out because they have something to prove, said goalie finally getting his starting contract and no longer has to prove anything and no longer playing lights out hockey.

You want to argue about sample sizes, yet most of you are saying Schnieder is a proven playoff performer based on a 5 game series that he couldn't win.

Keeping Schnieder is not going to go aswell as alot of you think IMO.

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Hardly the first person to mention this train of thought, since it's been talked about for sometime in the Luongo Discussion thread (now in 5 flavours!). Unless an exceptional deal comes along for Schneider - like what Gillis was asking for when looking to move Schneider last year and the year before - Luongo will be the one traded.

/topic/338913-discussion-roberto-luongo-trade-thread-50/">[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 5.0

Nothing is 100% but unless the return is so good it convinces Gillis otherwise, Schneider will stay and Luongo will move.

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Obviously Schneider's stats are going to start to settle in more realistic territory - as in, I don't think we can expect a sub 2.00 GAA and over .935 Save% when he's playing 60+ games a season - but mark my words, the guy is the real deal and will be competing for Vezina trophies in the not too distant future. I honestly don't think we have to worry about Schneider pulling a Steve Mason. I think his career path will mirror Cam Ward's, except that his stats will be actually be good because he won't be playing in front of a horrid defense year after year like Ward has.

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I've been saying this since the whole "controversy" started. Trade Schneider because we would get more in return for him than we would for Luongo. In our 2011 Cup Run, we didn't lose because of Luongo, we lost because there were pieces that we needed that we just simply didn't have. Trading Schneider instead of Luongo gets us those pieces, and possibly a little extra more.

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I've been saying this since the whole "controversy" started. Trade Schneider because we would get more in return for him than we would for Luongo. In our 2011 Cup Run, we didn't lose because of Luongo, we lost because there were pieces that we needed that we just simply didn't have. Trading Schneider instead of Luongo gets us those pieces, and possibly a little extra more.

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Thats not an issue, once Schneider is done his contract in 2015 who knows what every else will have signed at. The sedins and half our defense will be different contracts. Next year with the new 64 mil cap is my concern...

Both goalies contracts are very manageable.. But add up all our other "manageable" contracts and that puts us way over cost..

The sedins at 6.1 each are "manageable". Kelser (5mill), burrows (4.5), booth (4.5), garrison (4.6), Ballard (4.5), bieksa (4.6), Hammuis (4.5), Edler (5 mill).... all are manageable contracts.

My point is that we have a lot of good players signed but unfortunately we can't keep them all.. the new CBA has changed things, and a luongo trade is unfortunately the best solution since his cap @6.7 mill next year is our biggest and we have Schneids and lack combined for cheaper.

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I agree that Luongo's contract is a tough one to hang on to. I understand that Luongo will not be in his "prime" for the duration of his contract. However, I'm also very aware that Lu will be regarded as one of the best goaltenders of all time. I'm also very confident in the fact that for the next 2-4 years, Luongo will still be considered a great goalie in this league, and essentially in his "prime." What about the rest of our team? Sedins, Burrows, Kesler, Bieksa, Garrison, Edler, and Hamhuis can be considered as part of our core, and together will be in their "prime" for another.. Lets say 2-4 years for simplicity's sake. Now if we were to trade Schneider, we still have a full team in their prime, plus the return for Schneider (which IMO would be greater than the return for Luongo). However, if we trade Luongo, we are essentially moving to a goaltender who isn't in his prime, and in a holistic sense downgrading in that position. I understand fully that Schneider will be a goalie of the future. However, if our cup window is closing, we may as well go all in, and win this thing in the next 2-4 years when our whole team is in its prime, PLUS the return for Schneider PLUS the development of Kassian and Shroeder.

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I've said this all along.

Schneider is nowhere near his prime yet. He hasn't even had a full season as starter. He hasn't played much playoff hockey, he hasn't been in big games yet. These experiences are what moulds a goalie - even young goalies like Quick and Rinne have been through a few years of playoff failure before they could put it together and play well in the post-season.

Schneider will take another couple of years before he's ready to become a Cup-challenging goalie. Right now he has no idea what it's like to play under the pressure of a starting goalie let alone in the playoffs. Luongo on the otherhand does. He's been through all the big games, won big games and lost them and has developed more and more over the last 5 odd years so that he may put it all together now.

We don't have time for Schneider to put all these experiences together, because the rest of our core players will be well past their prime then. Stick with Luongo, who's grown and developed with the rest of our core like the Sedins, Burrows, Kesler, Bieksa, Edler and Hamhuis.

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First off, I'd like to mention that this post will have absolutely nothing to do with what has gone on in the first 5 games of the season. It has come to my attention that there has many mixed emotions when it comes to our situation in net - here's my opinion of what the current state is and what I believe would be the best decisions to make.

Considering that this is a shortened season, I would have no problem with having both Lu and Schnieder. I remember back in the day when we had Cloutier and Bob Essensa (I know..) and Crawford would rotate the goalies and keep playing one until they lost, and then would ride the next one (no pun intended). My only concern with this would be in the playoffs.. And that's why I'll explain my next point.

I agree that Luongo's contract is a tough one to hang on to. I understand that Luongo will not be in his "prime" for the duration of his contract. However, I'm also very aware that Lu will be regarded as one of the best goaltenders of all time. I'm also very confident in the fact that for the next 2-4 years, Luongo will still be considered a great goalie in this league, and essentially in his "prime." What about the rest of our team? Sedins, Burrows, Kesler, Bieksa, Garrison, Edler, and Hamhuis can be considered as part of our core, and together will be in their "prime" for another.. Lets say 2-4 years for simplicity's sake. Now if we were to trade Schneider, we still have a full team in their prime, plus the return for Schneider (which IMO would be greater than the return for Luongo). However, if we trade Luongo, we are essentially moving to a goaltender who isn't in his prime, and in a holistic sense downgrading in that position. I understand fully that Schneider will be a goalie of the future. However, if our cup window is closing, we may as well go all in, and win this thing in the next 2-4 years when our whole team is in its prime, PLUS the return for Schneider PLUS the development of Kassian and Shroeder.

I hope that all made sense. I've been thinking it for a while now, and when everyone says "Oh hey Hectic (because that's what I go by), when do you think they'll trade Luongo?" I tell him "I think it would be foolish for them to do that.." for all the above reasons. And of course they don't get it, because they are bandwagon fans. But I know there are some legitimate hockey fans here, and if this makes sense and is valid in your opinion, then Hectic is happy.

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- Cam Ward won as a rookie as well. Had only played 28 regular season games.

- J.S. Giguere wasn't a rookie, but took his team all the way to the finals in his first playoff action.

- Mike Smith only had a couple of games experience in the playoffs before last season...looked OK to me.

- Although the Caps could only get to round 2, Holtby was fantastic in the playoffs after only 21 regular seasson games.

- Halak didn't need long to be effective in the playoffs either.

This whole age/experience thing is highly overrated.

And speaking of overrated, since his fantastic first playoff run with us, Luongo has had a playoff GAA of 2.76 and save% of .908. That's not good at all, especially for a highly paid "franchise" goaltender. But some sentimental people continually want to ignore the facts, and defend the guy to the end.

Face it: Schneider is the better option, and it's not even close.

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You have a good argument, but I disagree with one of your assumptions. I don't think the Canucks are in "win now" mode. They never will be under Gillis. What Gillis is looking for is to remain competitive year in year out, but he is never going to trade our future to increase our chances at winning over a small window.

There's evidence of this. He never seems to trade a younger player for an older player, or at least he never trades for rentals. in the case of draft picks for players, usually they are for players that end up signing multi-year deals with us like Higgins and Lapierre, players who are ultimately about as good or better than what is typical of the picks they were traded for. In the case of Ballard, I think his scouts were expecting much more out of him, and we needed depth defense bad. All in all, it was long term, and Ballard was relatively young for a D-man.

So what's the strategy? I figure Gillis is looking to get into the playoffs every year, because teams that do that end up winning eventually. You can have the best team on paper, but you can never account for the reality of illness, injuries, player's on hot streaks, player's personal lives, media, and all around luck. The fact is teams that win the Cup look different every year. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago all had mediocre goalies. Now that Boston and LA won, there is a huge focus on goaltending. Part of this is a changing culture of hockey every year, but a lot of it is that there is no formula. Everyone assumes whoever wins has the "formula," but most of it is timing, health, mentality, and luck. The only way to take advantage of this is to remain competitive every year, and wait for the year that your team is hot at the right time.

Gillis now sees what you see. We have players in their prime, and that this window is closing. What does he say? We need to get younger. What we will see in the next few years is the introduction of our younger players on ELC's that will be on the upswing of their careers. Most won't be superstars, but they have ironed out most of their quirks in the AHL, and they will have great mentors in our veterans. They will play to and above the value of their ELC contracts, and that will see us through the expensive years of our veteran's contracts, allowing us to remain competitive.

Edit: if it isn't clear, we are keeping Schneider.

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Obviously how a goalie plays in the playoffs counts more than how he plays his first few games out of a lockout. Goalies react differently to time off, new situations, etc. Also, some of the teams are struggling in the defensive zone, leaving their goalies out to dry (Cory had no chance on 3/4 goals last night).

Mikka Kiprusoff - 4 GP, 3.44 GAA, .872 Sv%

Mike Smith - 3 GP, 4.62 GAA, .836 Sv%

Cam Ward - 3 GP, 4.71 GAA, .845 Sv%

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