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Is our formula really the "Winning Formula?" (Warning Statistics Inside)

The Analyst

By The Analyst
in Canucks Talk

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Aladeen Canucks Hall-of-Famer

Aladeen

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Posted

We hear General Manager Mike Gillis talk at nauseum about building a successful team for many years to come. Discussion about building through the draft, strategic development of prospects and maintaining a competative team year in and year out. This "Detroit" model certainly is one that that delivers an above average, annually competative team, but as history as has shown, is this truly the recipe to win a Stanley Cup? Teams like the Philidelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils (Post 2005 Lockout), and San Jose Sharks have been able to produce a team that is able to have great Regular Season Success, consistantly each season, only to struggle as some point in the Post Season.

I've taken the time to compile some information on the past 4 Stanley Cup Winners. What you will find are some common themes that you do not see align with the Mike Gillis model.

Similarity # 1 - They each have had 1 MAJOR move, either right at the start, Mid Season or at Trade Deadline.

-The LA Kings made splashes sending out Brayden Schenn and Jack Johnson for Mike Richards and Jeff Carter respectively.

-The Boston Bruins sent Phil Kessel to Toronto Aquiring what later became Tyler Seguin. Added Tomas Kaberle and at the start of the season Traded Dennis Wideman to FLA for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell.

-The Chicago Blackhawks added Marion Hossa

-The Pittsburgh Penguins added Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin

Similarity # 2 - High Impact players contributing at a young age. Pretty Straight forward comparison. Below I've added the ages for the notable players. You will see that the CORE of the team consists of players in the first or second contract in the NHL. This allows for maximum balance throughout the roster.

Similarity # 3 - 2 or more finishes in the bottom of the league. You'll see that each of the past 4 Winners finished at or near the bottom of the league. The finish was able to land them a high impact draft pick, able to either contibute right away on an ELC (Entry Level Contract) or provide major pieces that were in turn exchanged for high impact pieces.

Anyways, below you'll find my research, let's discuss.

Would you be satified seeing your team struggle in the basement for 3-5 years if you knew that it would greatly increase your chances at a cup? (BTW not going out on a limb, but EDM will win the cup in 2016 years)

From a business perspective, it makes much more financial sense to have a mediocre playoff team year after year.

Discuss....

RESEARCH

2012 - LA Kings - Bottom of the barrel team for years, Drafts Anze Kopitar (24), Johnathan Quick (26), Drew Doughty (22), Dustin Brown (27), Jack Johnson (25). Received via trade/free agency... Jeff Carter (27), Mike Richards (27), Simon Gagne.

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2011 - 12th in the NHL, Traded pick to EDM

2010 - 8th in the NHL, Drafted Derek Forbert (15th Overall)

2009 - 26th in the NHL, Drafted Brayden Schenn (5th Overall) Later trade to PHI in Mike Richards deal

2008 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Drew Doughty (2nd Overall)

2007 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Tomas Hickey (4th Overall)

Other Notables: Drafted Anze Kopitar (11th overall in 2005), Dustin Brown (13th Overall in 2003), Mike Richards (24th Overall 2003), Jack Johnson (3rd Overall in 2005, Aquired Rights from CAR) Later traded to CBJ for Jeff Carter (11th Overall 2003)

2011 - Boston Bruins - Handed the cup by Toronto in Kessel Deal, Given Tyler Seguin(19). Drafted Patrice Berergon (25), Milan Lucic (22), Brad Marchand (22). Aquired Nathan Horton (25)Via trade and Tomas Kaberle.

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2010 - 14th in the NHL, Drafted Tyler Seguin (2nd Overall)

2009 - 2nd in the NHL, Drafted Jordan Caron (25th Overall)

2008 - 13th in the NHL, Drafted Joe Colborne (16th Overall) Later traded to Toronto for Tomas Kaberle

2007 - 23rd in the NHL, Drafted Zach Hamil (8th Overall)

2006 - 26th in the NHL, Drafted Phil Kessel (5th Overall) later traded to Toronto for 1 top 5 Picks

2010 - Chicago Blackhawk - Finish nearly last for many years. Drafts Jonathan Toews (21), Patrick Kane (21), Dustin Byfuglien (24), Nick Hjalmersson (22), Duncan Keith (26), Brent Seabrook (24), Kris Versteeg (23), Patrick Sharp (28), acquired Marion Hossa

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2009 - 6th in the NHL, Drafted Dylan Olsen (28th Overall)

2008 - 20th in the NHL, Drafted Kyle Beach (11th Overall)

2007 - 25th in the NHL, Drafted Patrick Kane (1st Overall)

2006 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Jonathan Toews (3rd Overall)

2005 - N/A, Drafted Jack Skille (7th Overall)

2004 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Cam Barker (3rd Overall)

2009 - Pittsburgh Penguins - Finish dead last for years. Drafts Marc-andre Fleury (24), Sidney Crosby (21), Evgeni Malkin (22), Kris Letang (21), Alex Goligoski (23).

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2008 - 4th in the NHL, Pick Traded to Atlanta

2007 - 9th in the NHL, Drafted Angelo Esposito (20th Overall)

2006 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Jordan Staal (2nd Overall)

2005 - N/a, Drafted Sidney Crosby (1st Overall)

2004 - 30th in the NHL, Drafted Evgeni Malkin (2nd Overall)

2003 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Marc-Andre Fluery (1st Overall)

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disisdayear Abbotsford Star

disisdayear

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One thing for sure, you need to have great goaltending to win the Cup...or at least have your goalie has to outplay the other team's goaltender. That, along with having the healthier line up compared to the opponent are the two single-most factors in getting on a roll. And even with that, there's no guarantee of winning the Cup.

I don't think there is one formula that works better than another...assembly of talent (old and young), and young players contributing in meaningful ways does provide a better than average chance of winning (sorry for stating the obvious).

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The Analyst Abbotsford Prospect

The Analyst

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Maybe the better question is... How much would you gamble to load up in one year to make a run at the cup?  That is why I started thinking about this in the first place.  Giving up on picks and prospects now, to completely stack the team this year.  With full knowledge that the next 3-4 years, will be spent with a bare cupboard in terms of prospects.  Our veterans would move on, and leave us in a 3-4 year rebuild.  Develop young guys and when ready, reload again, take your shot, rinse, repeat.

Would you be happier as a fan if your team did this, instead of finishing as a bubble team year after year?Our dominance over the Northwest Division will end at some point, so we wont be as blessed to know we are a vitual lock for a playoff position.

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elvis15 Canucks Hall-of-Famer

elvis15

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Knowing the likelihood of winning the cup for any team in a given year (whether President's Trophy winners or only squeaking into 14th place overall as the season ended) I'd prefer to not give up an insane amount for a single playoff run.

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spentral Junior Prospect

spentral

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i actually really dislike the current system of tanking for draft picks (thank god it is changed in the new CBA) its bothered me for years that a team could be rewarded for not improving themselves. i would rather see my team play their hearts out and earn their paycheck, then have them lose for years for anything unproven. nice to know with the changes for next season we will have a decent chance for a decent pick, even if we win another presidents trophy.

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CanuckCup1316 Abbotsford Prospect

CanuckCup1316

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Im just happy making the playoffs almost every year. Its too hard to come up with the exact plan to win the cup. As long as you have a good team and hot goalie anything can happen. Not to put the blame on Luongo but if you look at most of the recent cup winners, they did it with hot goaltending. Luongo had some great games but had some blowouts that he had a hard time mentally recovering from. We really should have won the cup in 2011. We were up 2-0 going in to thier barn and if we just split, the series is ours. But we got our asses handed to us and gave Boston the confidence to win. Even if we lost both games in Boston but by close competitive scores, i believe we would have still won the cup. Thats why having both Cory and Luongo for this years playoffs could be the key. As soon as the other team scores 2 quick goals on Luongo get Cory in the nets. The team kept saying a lost is a lost no matter what the score but the proof is there. Everytime we get blown out we follow it up with another blow up.

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Jester13 Canucks First-Line

Jester13

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If there was a specific formula to winning the Stanley Cup don't you think that more teams would repeat at least once? When was the last time a team did that huh? A new team wins the cup every year, there is no formula except staying healthy, playing great, and getting some luck.

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