Is our formula really the "Winning Formula?" (Warning Statistics Inside)

[icycold]

You mentioned from a business standpoint in there somewhere and as it applies to us, the vancouver canuck are a money making proposition any way you slice it. No we have not won the cup BUT close, no close doesn't really count but try getting seats to one of the games at last minute and that will tell you everything. (good luck with that)

We have sold out games constantly year after year and that's good business, are we closer to the cup than ever before? Yes and no, we have the puzzle but not quite the correct pieces but it seems to be getting closer and all that is standing in our way is availability of 2 players who would put us over the top.

Do we need more skill? No, do we need more size? Yes! Thing is that players with both size and skill are hard to come by and expensive, i think we're better set than most teams on skill but we still lack toughness to go toe to toe with the top teams in the gruelling playoffs and we eventually get worn down right at the end with injuries trying to keep up.

The good news is that we finally have 2 goalies that can deem one expendable in order to take the risk of trading to get some size and toughness with decent offensive upside who would contribute somewhat in the points category but we get plenty of points already and we need those missing pieces NOT to be a liability and if that happens we'd be ok.

Also if need be we can throw in someone else in a trade if necessary but this seems to be a problem year after year but we're getting closer and i still believe that if MG can pull off a deal to get 1 bigger skilled forward and same on defence then we do stand a huge difference on getting a cup than ever before.

Easier said than done of course but CS can finally be our starter goalie and we can take that risk of letting go of Lou in trade, here's hoping something can get done soon so we can all breathe a huge sigh of relief if MG can *git er done*

GO MIKE GO!!!!

[riffraff]

You did a fair bit of research but provided no conclusions.

Are you suggesting that it would be better if Gillis gut the team so that we could suffer at the bottom of the standings for a few years and possibly getting some high draft picks that may or may not be busts?

Personally, I don't think the team should be rebuilt until absolutely necessary. Just because the Sharks have choked for many years doesn't mean the Canucks are doing the wrong thing. They should try and stay contenders as long as they can, and once that is no longer possible, only then start a rebuilding process. Just as long as they don't wait too long and risk becoming the next Calgary.

[riffraff]

We hear General Manager Mike Gillis talk at nauseum about building a successful team for many years to come. Discussion about building through the draft, strategic development of prospects and maintaining a competative team year in and year out. This "Detroit" model certainly is one that that delivers an above average, annually competative team, but as history as has shown, is this truly the recipe to win a Stanley Cup? Teams like the Philidelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils (Post 2005 Lockout), and San Jose Sharks have been able to produce a team that is able to have great Regular Season Success, consistantly each season, only to struggle as some point in the Post Season.

I've taken the time to compile some information on the past 4 Stanley Cup Winners. What you will find are some common themes that you do not see align with the Mike Gillis model.

Similarity # 1 - They each have had 1 MAJOR move, either right at the start, Mid Season or at Trade Deadline.

-The LA Kings made splashes sending out Brayden Schenn and Jack Johnson for Mike Richards and Jeff Carter respectively.

-The Boston Bruins sent Phil Kessel to Toronto Aquiring what later became Tyler Seguin. Added Tomas Kaberle and at the start of the season Traded Dennis Wideman to FLA for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell.

-The Chicago Blackhawks added Marion Hossa

-The Pittsburgh Penguins added Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin

Similarity # 2 - High Impact players contributing at a young age. Pretty Straight forward comparison. Below I've added the ages for the notable players. You will see that the CORE of the team consists of players in the first or second contract in the NHL. This allows for maximum balance throughout the roster.

Similarity # 3 - 2 or more finishes in the bottom of the league. You'll see that each of the past 4 Winners finished at or near the bottom of the league. The finish was able to land them a high impact draft pick, able to either contibute right away on an ELC (Entry Level Contract) or provide major pieces that were in turn exchanged for high impact pieces.

Anyways, below you'll find my research, let's discuss.

Would you be satified seeing your team struggle in the basement for 3-5 years if you knew that it would greatly increase your chances at a cup? (BTW not going out on a limb, but EDM will win the cup in 2016 years)

From a business perspective, it makes much more financial sense to have a mediocre playoff team year after year.

Discuss....

RESEARCH

2012 - LA Kings - Bottom of the barrel team for years, Drafts Anze Kopitar (24), Johnathan Quick (26), Drew Doughty (22), Dustin Brown (27), Jack Johnson (25). Received via trade/free agency... Jeff Carter (27), Mike Richards (27), Simon Gagne.

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2011 - 12th in the NHL, Traded pick to EDM

2010 - 8th in the NHL, Drafted Derek Forbert (15th Overall)

2009 - 26th in the NHL, Drafted Brayden Schenn (5th Overall) Later trade to PHI in Mike Richards deal

2008 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Drew Doughty (2nd Overall)

2007 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Tomas Hickey (4th Overall)

Other Notables: Drafted Anze Kopitar (11th overall in 2005), Dustin Brown (13th Overall in 2003), Mike Richards (24th Overall 2003), Jack Johnson (3rd Overall in 2005, Aquired Rights from CAR) Later traded to CBJ for Jeff Carter (11th Overall 2003)

2011 - Boston Bruins - Handed the cup by Toronto in Kessel Deal, Given Tyler Seguin(19). Drafted Patrice Berergon (25), Milan Lucic (22), Brad Marchand (22). Aquired Nathan Horton (25)Via trade and Tomas Kaberle.

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2010 - 14th in the NHL, Drafted Tyler Seguin (2nd Overall)

2009 - 2nd in the NHL, Drafted Jordan Caron (25th Overall)

2008 - 13th in the NHL, Drafted Joe Colborne (16th Overall) Later traded to Toronto for Tomas Kaberle

2007 - 23rd in the NHL, Drafted Zach Hamil (8th Overall)

2006 - 26th in the NHL, Drafted Phil Kessel (5th Overall) later traded to Toronto for 1 top 5 Picks

2010 - Chicago Blackhawk - Finish nearly last for many years. Drafts Jonathan Toews (21), Patrick Kane (21), Dustin Byfuglien (24), Nick Hjalmersson (22), Duncan Keith (26), Brent Seabrook (24), Kris Versteeg (23), Patrick Sharp (28), acquired Marion Hossa

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2009 - 6th in the NHL, Drafted Dylan Olsen (28th Overall)

2008 - 20th in the NHL, Drafted Kyle Beach (11th Overall)

2007 - 25th in the NHL, Drafted Patrick Kane (1st Overall)

2006 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Jonathan Toews (3rd Overall)

2005 - N/A, Drafted Jack Skille (7th Overall)

2004 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Cam Barker (3rd Overall)

2009 - Pittsburgh Penguins - Finish dead last for years. Drafts Marc-andre Fleury (24), Sidney Crosby (21), Evgeni Malkin (22), Kris Letang (21), Alex Goligoski (23).

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2008 - 4th in the NHL, Pick Traded to Atlanta

2007 - 9th in the NHL, Drafted Angelo Esposito (20th Overall)

2006 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Jordan Staal (2nd Overall)

2005 - N/a, Drafted Sidney Crosby (1st Overall)

2004 - 30th in the NHL, Drafted Evgeni Malkin (2nd Overall)

2003 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Marc-Andre Fluery (1st Overall)

[Blömqvist]

You make a valid point: the Canucks' formula is not the "winning formula". Gillis has made the Canucks into a stable, winning organization but sometimes to push a team over the top and win the Stanley Cup one have to be willing to make a move (or string of moves) that rock the stability of that organization.

Aside from Mats Sundin, Gillis has not made any significant moves whatsoever (trading a prospect for a prospect -- Hodgson for Kassian -- doesn't really count). He re-signed the Twins. He re-signed Luongo. He re-signed Kesler. He re-signed Bieksa. He re-signed Edler. What Gillis is doing is keeping the fort together so that it doesn't crumble in on itself. That is to say, that he re-signed those players in order to sustain the stability and winning culture of our organization. There is no doubt that it is a smart move (and I love to see our boys win), but he is merely racking up the W's and not the Stanley Cup.

What Gillis needs to do is, like you stated, make a major move to put us over the top. If he is serious about us winning he needs to trade a goaltender now with another piece to land us a game-changing player. In my opinion he should've done this two years ago during our Stanley Cup run (and at that time with 2 of the best players in the world) by trading Cory Schneider for an impact forward. Unfortunately he held on to him for two consecutive years and now it seems as if he will hold on to both goalies this season as well.

Gillis should go all-in this season. Looking at our goaltending depth it only makes sense to trade Cory Schneider for that impact forward. Package him with a player like Booth or Kesler and imagine what we could get (Ovechkin would be a pipe dream -- Bure 2.0 back in Vancouver). Läck and Cannata look to be promising goaltenders and can take over the reigns once Roberto retires.

[Kesler's Nose]

The Canucks are winners, they just need to conquer their fears of the playoffs as a group. The controversy surrounding Lu and the way he has adjusted this year specifically, makes me wonder if he is the one that can start a chain reaction... The only problem is he will probably be traded, at first I had wanted it all resolved and the quickest solution was to trade him. But the way Schneids' agent has spoke out and made him look like a whiny baby, I'm starting to think otherwise.. I'd be happy with Lu, just as much as Schneider- so who gets traded at this point really doesn't affect the crease. If our relationship with Lu hadn't been tarnished I would opt to keep him because of the history, either way; in conclusion something needs to be done before the playoffs.

[elvis15]

You make a valid point: the Canucks' formula is not the "winning formula". Gillis has made the Canucks into a stable, winning organization but sometimes to push a team over the top and win the Stanley Cup one have to be willing to make a move (or string of moves) that rock the stability of that organization.

Aside from Mats Sundin, Gillis has not made any significant moves whatsoever (trading a prospect for a prospect -- Hodgson for Kassian -- doesn't really count). He re-signed the Twins. He re-signed Luongo. He re-signed Kesler. He re-signed Bieksa. He re-signed Edler. What Gillis is doing is keeping the fort together so that it doesn't crumble in on itself. That is to say, that he re-signed those players in order to sustain the stability and winning culture of our organization. There is no doubt that it is a smart move (and I love to see our boys win), but he is merely racking up the W's and not the Stanley Cup.

What Gillis needs to do is, like you stated, make a major move to put us over the top. If he is serious about us winning he needs to trade a goaltender now with another piece to land us a game-changing player. In my opinion he should've done this two years ago during our Stanley Cup run (and at that time with 2 of the best players in the world) by trading Cory Schneider for an impact forward. Unfortunately he held on to him for two consecutive years and now it seems as if he will hold on to both goalies this season as well.

Gillis should go all-in this season. Looking at our goaltending depth it only makes sense to trade Cory Schneider for that impact forward. Package him with a player like Booth or Kesler and imagine what we could get (Ovechkin would be a pipe dream -- Bure 2.0 back in Vancouver). Läck and Cannata look to be promising goaltenders and can take over the reigns once Roberto retires.

[Eh! Team]

We should just scout the Redwings scouts.

Just follow them around and draft everyone they'd draft. Example: Edler.

Thats the Winning Formula right there.

[Clonedanielsedin]

Game 7 of the Stanley cup playoffs. Two straight presidents trophies. Playoff team steady since early 2000's. The only thing this team lacks is LUCK.

[Blömqvist]

I love how people choose to ignore what Gillis has done (even outside of re-signing the core to affordable deals, which is an accomplishment no matter what you say):

• Hamhuis and Garrison are UFA signings

• He was also in the final discussions for Doan, Schultz and Weber (who would have been a UFA signing the following year if he'd taken a 1 year offer sheet)

• He traded our top prospect for another but different top prospect in Kassian, one that's helping us more now since Gillis was comfortable enough with Schroeder to realize his options when Hodgson asked out

If that doesn't float your boat and you still want a major move, what in the hell do you think the Luongo deal is going to be? Or if he manages a less likely but even more significant offer for Schneider?

And you end up with us trading a top 6 forward along with our young, soon to be star goalie for Ovechkin - who's not even earning half his contract worth at this point in a reality where the cap drops by $6M next year?

[jono2009]

We hear General Manager Mike Gillis talk at nauseum about building a successful team for many years to come.  Discussion about building through the draft, strategic development of prospects and maintaining a competative team year in and year out.  This "Detroit" model certainly is one that that delivers an above average, annually competative team, but as history as has shown, is this truly the recipe to win a Stanley Cup?   Teams like the Philidelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils (Post 2005 Lockout), and San Jose Sharks have been able to produce a team that is able to have great Regular Season Success, consistantly each season, only to struggle as some point in the Post Season.

I've taken the time to compile some information on the past 4 Stanley Cup Winners.  What you will find are some common themes that you do not see align with the Mike Gillis model.

Similarity # 1 - They each have had 1 MAJOR move, either right at the start, Mid Season or at Trade Deadline.  

-The LA Kings made splashes sending out Brayden Schenn and Jack Johnson for Mike Richards and Jeff Carter respectively.  

-The Boston Bruins sent Phil Kessel to Toronto Aquiring what later became Tyler Seguin.  Added Tomas Kaberle and at the start of the season Traded Dennis Wideman to FLA for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell.

-The Chicago Blackhawks added Marion Hossa

-The Pittsburgh Penguins added Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin

Similarity # 2 - High Impact players contributing at a young age.  Pretty Straight forward comparison.  Below I've added the ages for the notable players.  You will see that the CORE of the team consists of players in the first or second contract in the NHL.  This allows for maximum balance throughout the roster.

Similarity # 3 - 2 or more finishes in the bottom of the league.  You'll see that each of the past 4 Winners finished at or near the bottom of the league.  The finish was able to land them a high impact draft pick, able to either contibute right away on an ELC (Entry Level Contract) or provide major pieces that were in turn exchanged for high impact pieces.

Anyways, below you'll find my research, let's discuss.

Would you be satified seeing your team struggle in the basement for 3-5 years if you knew that it would greatly increase your chances at a cup?  (BTW not going out on a limb, but EDM will win the cup in 2016 years)

From a business perspective, it makes much more financial sense to have a mediocre playoff team year after year.

Discuss....

RESEARCH

2012 - LA Kings - Bottom of the barrel team for years, Drafts Anze Kopitar (24), Johnathan Quick (26), Drew Doughty (22), Dustin Brown (27), Jack Johnson (25).  Received via trade/free agency... Jeff Carter (27), Mike Richards (27), Simon Gagne.

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2011 - 12th in the NHL, Traded pick to EDM

2010 - 8th in the NHL, Drafted Derek Forbert (15th Overall)

2009 - 26th in the NHL, Drafted Brayden Schenn (5th Overall) Later trade to PHI in Mike Richards deal

2008 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Drew Doughty (2nd Overall)

2007 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Tomas Hickey (4th Overall)

Other Notables: Drafted Anze Kopitar (11th overall in 2005), Dustin Brown (13th Overall in 2003), Mike Richards (24th Overall 2003), Jack Johnson (3rd Overall in 2005, Aquired Rights from CAR) Later traded to CBJ for Jeff Carter (11th Overall 2003)

2011 - Boston Bruins - Handed the cup by Toronto in Kessel Deal, Given Tyler Seguin(19).  Drafted Patrice Berergon (25),  Milan Lucic (22), Brad Marchand (22).  Aquired Nathan Horton (25)Via trade and Tomas Kaberle.

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2010 - 14th in the NHL, Drafted Tyler Seguin (2nd Overall)

2009 - 2nd in the NHL, Drafted Jordan Caron (25th Overall)

2008 - 13th in the NHL, Drafted Joe Colborne (16th Overall) Later traded to Toronto for Tomas Kaberle

2007 - 23rd in the NHL, Drafted Zach Hamil (8th Overall)

2006 - 26th in the NHL, Drafted Phil Kessel (5th Overall) later traded to Toronto for 1 top 5 Picks

2010 - Chicago Blackhawk - Finish nearly last for many years.  Drafts Jonathan Toews (21), Patrick Kane (21), Dustin Byfuglien (24), Nick Hjalmersson (22), Duncan Keith (26), Brent Seabrook (24), Kris Versteeg (23), Patrick Sharp (28), acquired Marion Hossa

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2009 - 6th in the NHL, Drafted Dylan Olsen (28th Overall)

2008 - 20th in the NHL, Drafted Kyle Beach (11th Overall)

2007 - 25th in the NHL, Drafted Patrick Kane (1st Overall)

2006 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Jonathan Toews (3rd Overall)

2005 - N/A, Drafted Jack Skille (7th Overall)

2004 - 28th in the NHL, Drafted Cam Barker (3rd Overall)

2009 - Pittsburgh Penguins - Finish dead last for years.  Drafts Marc-andre Fleury (24), Sidney Crosby (21), Evgeni Malkin (22), Kris Letang (21), Alex Goligoski (23).

Previous 5 year Finishes:

2008 - 4th in the NHL, Pick Traded to Atlanta

2007 - 9th in the NHL, Drafted Angelo Esposito (20th Overall)

2006 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Jordan Staal (2nd Overall)

2005 - N/a, Drafted Sidney Crosby (1st Overall)

2004 - 30th in the NHL, Drafted Evgeni Malkin (2nd Overall)

2003 - 29th in the NHL, Drafted Marc-Andre Fluery (1st Overall)

[apollo]

We drafted bourdon who could have been better than doughty... or we coulda drafted kopitar... our formula is perfect. Things just didn't work out …

May God rest his soul... (bourdon )

[Mookie Wilson]

How about health, luck and goaltending?

[The Analyst]

I agree the Garrison is supposed to be that BIG TICKET aquisision this year.

As was David Booth Last year.

This year is tough, because if we can get Kesler and Booth back, it is similar to getting that big name free agent.

The kind of loading up I'm talking about would be something similar to:

To Anahiem: Bieksa/Burrows/Schroeder/Jensen/Connaughton/1st/3rd

To Vancouver: Getzlaf/Perry

Sedin/Sedin/Kassian

Perry/Getzlaf/Raymond

Booth/Kesler/Higgins

Weise/Lapierre/Volpatti

And still have Lu/Schneider to trade in another deal...

No guarantee for the cup but having 4 lines like that certainly looks promising

[Blömqvist]

I agree the Garrison is supposed to be that BIG TICKET aquisision this year.

As was David Booth Last year.

This year is tough, because if we can get Kesler and Booth back, it is similar to getting that big name free agent.

The kind of loading up I'm talking about would be something similar to:

To Anahiem: Bieksa/Burrows/Schroeder/Jensen/Connaughton/1st/3rd

To Vancouver: Getzlaf/Perry

Sedin/Sedin/Kassian

Perry/Getzlaf/Raymond

Booth/Kesler/Higgins

Weise/Lapierre/Volpatti

And still have Lu/Schneider to trade in another deal...

No guarantee for the cup but having 4 lines like that certainly looks promising

[Mookie Wilson]

I agree the Garrison is supposed to be that BIG TICKET aquisision this year.

As was David Booth Last year.

This year is tough, because if we can get Kesler and Booth back, it is similar to getting that big name free agent.

The kind of loading up I'm talking about would be something similar to:

To Anahiem: Bieksa/Burrows/Schroeder/Jensen/Connaughton/1st/3rd

To Vancouver: Getzlaf/Perry

Sedin/Sedin/Kassian

Perry/Getzlaf/Raymond

Booth/Kesler/Higgins

Weise/Lapierre/Volpatti

And still have Lu/Schneider to trade in another deal...

No guarantee for the cup but having 4 lines like that certainly looks promising

[Jai604]

haha I missed that in proof, but I'll leave it in there for laughs

[elvis15]

Yes, Gillis did add several key players on our cup run, but since then we have been trying with pretty much the same exact team looking for 1 more playoff win whereas every other team has significantly improved. I would say since our cup run our team has taken a step backward. The loss of Samuelsson, a legitimate top 6 forward at the time, and Ehrhoff, a key cog in our transition game, have affected our offence in a negative way. Yes, we added Booth and Garrison but Booth doesn't bring that multi-purpose offensive player that Samuelsson did (could play on the 3rd line and make it a scoring threat, play on the 2nd with Kesler, or even on the 1st with the Sedins), and Garrison seems about as good defensively as Ehrhoff minus the mobility, puck poise, and shot accuracy. Gillis is seemingly and slowly downgrading our team. It's definitely not something he willingly wants to do, but because of contract and cap reasons (people needing raises after big-time performances) he doesn't have a choice.

Look at LA. They made blockbuster moves to shake the core of their organization and they won the cup. Point is, we've been trying with the same exact core for so long (2006/2007) and met the same exact result: No Stanley Cup. We were 1 win (and a billion dollars in bribes to the refs) away from winning it all, but since then Gillis hasn't fully replaced that masterfully constructed team. This organization needs a shakeup. We cannot expect to win with the same exact team.

The Luongo deal won't be for much. 3rd line player, prospect, and a pick. Or a top prospect and a pick. What we need is an impact player who will help us now, while the Sedins are still top 10 players in the league, yes? Schneider can definitely fetch us that return. I remember Bob McKenzie stating that Schneider could have gotten us Jeff Carter. Imagine what could have been had we traded Schneider for Carter, dumped Ballard's contract, and re-signed Ehrhoff!

But that's in the past. Now Gillis' next major move, which you and I agree is the upcoming goalie trade, will dictate the end result of our season. Trade Luongo for a prospect and a pick and the Canucks will continue to have playoff conundrums. Trade Schneider for an impact player and we jump right back into Stanley Cup contention.

[TOMapleLaughs]

1. We have a formula?

2. There's a 'winning formula?'

You're overestimating how much control Gillis, and every other GM out there, actually has.

[WL Canuck Fan]

We were one win away. There is no formula.

[86Viking]

WE know we can close to winning a cup, key word close, runner up is no conselation price to be raving about.

This team does need something to happen trade wise to elevate us to a cup. And realistically We probably should have traded schneider when we had the opportunity to gain a youth top end prospect, not sure what his worth is now.

GM MG signed luongo to the massive contract, how does that look a little over 2 years later when you sign a guy long term then make all this media debacle and controversy and almost make him ask or say hed be willing to waive his ntc. That is a poor move by a GM and it could lead to further players not signing here you never know.

Imagine Garrison or edler getting moved or asked to move in a year or 2 time, that wont look good.

I believe we need to make a move, and because we have 2 #1 goalies, this just happens to be the year where we can pull the trigger on a potential big deal that would benefit us short and or long term with our chances to win the cup.

Keeping both goalies i think is a mistake, you will get next to nothing come summer for Luongo, the cap goes down and other goalies will be available and or teams may resign who they have. The team the way it sits now wont win a cup in my opinion, something is missing. Some form of a shakeup ala goalie trade is needed to help give this team a new identity and help us with our scoring needs now and the post season