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Do Team Stats Matter? I did Math...


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#1 Centmo

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:51 AM

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Ever wonder how good an indicator regular season team stats are for whether a team will make it to the SCF?

In this analysis (and yes, it took a while), I look at team stats of both SCF finalists from 2000-2012 to see if any are good predictors of post-season performance:

Attached File  nhl stats_sm.png   185.45KB   102 downloads

Basically, looking at the averages, there are no stat categories that stick out as good predictors of of a team's ability to make it to the SCF. Finalists were, on average, about 9th or 10th in the league in team stats. They were on average, about 7th in reg. season points, which was the strongest indicator.

Where it got interesting, is when I sorted the teams into playing style: offensive, defensive and balanced. Offensiveness was determined by averaging G/G, PP% and S/G rankings. Defensiveness was determined by averaging GA/G, PK% and SA/G rankings. The highest of these two determined the teams playing style, but if they were close (within 5 of each other), they were deemed Balanced. Here are the finalists' stat rankings grouped into team playing style:

Attached File  nhl stats2b.png   124.06KB   71 downloads

From this, it appears that for balanced teams there is a strong indication that G/G is a very important stat. On average, balanced teams in the SCF has a ranking of 3.8 in this category. Reg. season points rank was also a strong indicator for balanced teams, with the finalists having an average rank of 3.

For offensive teams, the only important stat was G/G, which is not that surprising. No other stat. seemed to matter that much.

For defensive teams, the most important stat was PK%, with the average finalist having a ranking of 4.3.

Of the SCF finalists, there were 8 balanced teams, 9 offensive teams and 7 defensive teams. Of the eventual Cup winners, 7 were balanced, 3 were offensive and 2 were defensive.

How are the stats looking for the Canucks so far this year? We are 2nd in 5-5 F/A and 4th in GA/G. But, as a balanced team so far, we are 8th and 13th in the two most telling categories: Pts and G/G. Still a lot of games to be played though.

OK, take all this with a grain of salt since it is a pretty small sample size, and NHL is a living changing entity, so past statistics may not be so relevant today.

Edited by Centmo, 17 February 2013 - 12:39 PM.

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#2 SamJamIam

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 12:50 PM

Ever wonder how good an indicator regular season team stats are for whether a team will make it to the SCF?

In this analysis (and yes, it took a while), I look at team stats of both SCF finalists from 2000-2012 to see if any are good predictors of post-season performance:

Attached File  nhl stats_sm.png   185.45KB   102 downloads

Basically, looking at the averages, there are no stat categories that stick out as good predictors of of a team's ability to make it to the SCF. Finalists were, on average, about 9th or 10th in the league in team stats. They were on average, about 7th in reg. season points, which was the strongest indicator.

Where it got interesting, is when I sorted the teams into playing style: offensive, defensive and balanced. Offensiveness was determined by averaging G/G, PP% and S/G rankings. Defensiveness was determined by averaging GA/G, PK% and SA/G rankings. The highest of these two determined the teams playing style, but if they were close (within 5 of each other), they were deemed Balanced. Here are the finalists' stat rankings grouped into team playing style:

Attached File  nhl stats2b.png   124.06KB   71 downloads

From this, it appears that for balanced teams there is a strong indication that G/G is a very important stat. On average, balanced teams in the SCF has a ranking of 3.8 in this category. Reg. season points rank was also a strong indicator for balanced teams, with the finalists having an average rank of 3.

For offensive teams, the only important stat was G/G, which is not that surprising. No other stat. seemed to matter that much.

For defensive teams, the most important stat was PK%, with the average finalist having a ranking of 4.3.

Of the SCF finalists, there were 8 balanced teams, 9 offensive teams and 7 defensive teams. Of the eventual Cup winners, 7 were balanced, 3 were offensive and 2 were defensive.

How are the stats looking for the Canucks so far this year? We are 2nd in 5-5 F/A and 4th in GA/G. But, as a balanced team so far, we are 8th and 13th in the two most telling categories: Pts and G/G. Still a lot of games to be played though.

OK, take all this with a grain of salt since it is a pretty small sample size, and NHL is a living changing entity, so past statistics may not be so relevant today.


Interesting stuff. Not statistically rigorous of course but still revealing. I can't help but notice that compared to us in 2010-11, Boston was garbage.
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#3 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:51 PM

Um, Boston was not garbage.
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#4 VancouverCanucksRock

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 02:14 PM

As McDonalds' would say : "You did it!!!!"
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Posted Image WHen idiots think numbers are words, I do believe in 2012 for cleansing Earth of the idiots

#5 Centmo

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 02:17 PM

If we're comparing reg. season stats of the finalists only, the 2011 BOS over VAN upset was as substantial as the 2009 PIT over DET upset (which was a win that went against all statistics). In almost all other cases, the team with the better reg. season stats was the victor in the SCF.
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#6 Salmon Arm Canuck

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:37 PM

Centmo, GM MG has a job waiting for you in his Canucks war room! Interesting stuff.
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#7 SamJamIam

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:01 PM

Um, Boston was not garbage.


Read better.
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#8 laxgoalie

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:17 PM

Posted Image
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#9 TOMapleLaughs

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:23 PM

Read better.

Read it just fine. Nope. Still not garbage. Offense, goaltending and defense all elite.
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#10 joecanada777

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:18 AM

Still matters where you finish too ... 8th place teams like LA are,not common as everyone likes to believe
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QUOTE(queen_canuck_fan)
cuz when I saw you outside in the bushes, by length I would have guessed 11...

QUOTE(Whiskey7 @ Apr 19 2007, 08:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This is done in almost every sport, in every league, for a great player who has an "oooooo" sound in his name. I'm always a bit surprised when people don't pick up on it, and announcers on TV have to clarify for those at home.

#11 Primus099

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:21 AM

lol @ every balanced team winning it except us
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